Jackson Chourio Contract Extension?

[Brewcrew82]

Another big potential transaction coming up...Kid is a consensus top 3 prospect in baseball doing stuff few minor leaguers his age have ever done. His .325/.380/.551 slash-line in the high minors following the return of the regular baseball is Acuna/Rodriguez/Tatis-like. He looks primed to make his major league debut sometime early next season, if not by opening day, and assume the role from Yelich/Burnes of the "face of the franchise". He's still super young and untested for sure, but there's a very good track record with minor leaguers who have produced like he has at his age. 

Question subsequently becomes: WHEN do you offer him a contract extension and WHAT do you offer him to ensure you have him locked up through his early to mid prime seasons as you attempt to open up a window for an extended World Series run? You probably want to see him get some major league run first, but, at the same time, the longer you wait, the more expensive he potentially becomes. See: Burnes, Corbin. Guerrero Jr, Vlad. 

For reference, other recent extensions for prospects of his ilk: 

-Wander Franco, TB: 11 years, $182 million guaranteed, 12th year option, $41 million in incentives

-Julio Rodriguez: 12 years, $210 million guaranteed, options for 5 more years, $260 in incentives

-Corbin Carroll, 8 years, $111 million guaranteed, 9th year option for $23 million

FWIW, assuming everything proceeds on schedule and Chourio shows well in the majors, I would offer him something like 8 years $120 million guaranteed. with a club option for a 9th year at $23 million. Offer to be made a month to two months after his major league debut. That's guaranteed life-changing money for someone like Chourio, and he could still enter free agency after his age 29-30 seasons. Brewers would be able to have financial certainty in working his contract around Yelich's, while having a new "face of the franchise" to market statewide. 

[jay87shot]

I would want him to get at least 1/2 a year in but once he does and is successful I would go all in on him. My guess is that in 6-7 years when he would be a free agent superstar will be getting 40+ million easy. To go say 8/120 or 11/182 would be worth the risk.

[Brewcrew82]

9 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would want him to get at least 1/2 a year in but once he does and is successful I would go all in on him. My guess is that in 6-7 years when he would be a free agent superstar will be getting 40+ million easy. To go say 8/120 or 11/182 would be worth the risk.

Yep definitely worth the risk.

Interestingly, all it took for the Dbacks to decide to extend Carroll was one month. Mariners waited a little longer with Rodriguez and it cost them a more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I absolutely 100% do this. Chourio is soooo young that you can give him ten years and he still hits free agency at 30. 

[BrewerFan]

Yes. No question. My only concern is the industry scrutiny on Acuna Jr and the Julio Rodriguez deal may make this worse, but each player is different.

But yes, 100%. The only thing I'd do is go 8 years with 2 option years. 8/120, 2 option years at 25M.

MVP, GG, HR Champ-type incentives that would increase his future salaries. 

I think this is almost always the way to go and they should be talking with Contreras right now(just signing a guy doesn't lock you into keeping him).

Frelick, Uribe are others I would extend(at grossly different numbers). So I always like this idea. 

But it's different with a 19-year-old CF prospect who has produced like he has as he's climbed up to AAA before 20. 

[KeithStone53151]

For every Corbin Carroll, there's a Keston Hiura that looks every bit like a star...and falls flat at the MLB level. Imagine paying an average of $15M/year for a guy not on the roster...or worse, a guy that's on the roster only because of his contract but doesn't in fact belong on the roster. It's also worth noting that the current young guys can easily see the contracts a guy like Acuna is under, and recognize he probably lost out on $200 million by signing early. A guy like Chourio might not sign a $100 million contract right now that locks him up for 10 years. He might, but it's not the same slam dunk it was a few years ago.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

 A guy like Chourio might not sign a $100 million contract right now that locks him up for 10 years. He might, but it's not the same slam dunk it was a few years ago.

Well, there is always the chance of an injury that derails his career, which is really the only reason to accept a contract like that.  Guarantee 100 million or risk it all with an injury.

I bet Woodruff wishes he had done something with his contract before his injury.

[KeithStone53151]

20 hours ago, TURBO said:

Well, there is always the chance of an injury that derails his career, which is really the only reason to accept a contract like that.  Guarantee 100 million or risk it all with an injury.

I bet Woodruff wishes he had done something with his contract before his injury.

Pitchers have inherently more risk than hitters for injury, and while I agree with your points and would instantly accept the offer in his shoes...I think players are seeing that a lot of these contracts end up being quite poor for the player if he ends up being a star and may be more inclined to bet on themselves. Comparing Acuna/Soto is the best comparable I can find. I won't bore you all with the details, but bottom line, Soto will make approx $75M more than Acuna at least, over the duration of Acuna's current contract(assuming Soto signs a contract next year earning $30M/year, which is a pretty low bar). Beyond Acuna's age 30 season, Soto will still be making $30+M per year while Acuna may or may not justify such a high dollar contract at that point...while today he would probably demand more than Soto.

Like I said initially, when you're talking about the difference between $100M and $200M...it's frankly monopoly money at that point for us normal humans. We'd all take the money, quite our jobs, and drink/golf/fish/*insert hobby* out the remainder of our existence. But it's not quite that simple to the players who for a very wide variety of reasons want to maximize their earnings.

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

For every Corbin Carroll, there's a Keston Hiura that looks every bit like a star...and falls flat at the MLB level. Imagine paying an average of $15M/year for a guy not on the roster...or worse, a guy that's on the roster only because of his contract but doesn't in fact belong on the roster. It's also worth noting that the current young guys can easily see the contracts a guy like Acuna is under, and recognize he probably lost out on $200 million by signing early. A guy like Chourio might not sign a $100 million contract right now that locks him up for 10 years. He might, but it's not the same slam dunk it was a few years ago.

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

 

[BrewerFan]

21 hours ago, TURBO said:

Well, there is always the chance of an injury that derails his career, which is really the only reason to accept a contract like that.  Guarantee 100 million or risk it all with an injury.

I bet Woodruff wishes he had done something with his contract before his injury.

I don't think a Acuna Jr type contract would get it done...I think 10/150 2 option years plus escalators may get it done however. An MVP, GG, etc...and he gets significant incentives.

It's risky for the team, but if you want a player like this hitting in the middle of your lineup from 20-30...this is probably what you'd have to do. 

The Acuna Jr deal though...next to the Albies deal, they were both viewed as bad deals for the players right away. Albies worse than Acuna Jr, but we'll see. I don't see the Brewers committing this type of money to a player this young, they'll want to wait until he's proven more...then usually they can see Free Agency coming like with Burnes and it's too late. BUT...we'll see. I'd love to see it and I think it'd make a lot of sense. 

[KeithStone53151]

23 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

 

I'll agree it's different, but Hiura was also a quite different prospect than Frelick. Expectations on Hiura were initially a high contact/barrel hitter, but then all of a sudden he started crushing dingers and he looked to be a middle of the order star. Hiura was given a 65 grade hit tool projection as a prospect, which is quite high. It's tough to argue his hit tool is higher than 40 currently. You could also look at Carlos Gomez as an example of a guy who was expected to like Acuna/Trout but was quite bad at the mlb level until he hit 27 and had a few good years with us. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I'll agree it's different, but Hiura was also a quite different prospect than Frelick. Expectations on Hiura were initially a high contact/barrel hitter, but then all of a sudden he started crushing dingers and he looked to be a middle of the order star. Hiura was given a 65 grade hit tool projection as a prospect, which is quite high. It's tough to argue his hit tool is higher than 40 currently. You could also look at Carlos Gomez as an example of a guy who was expected to like Acuna/Trout but was quite bad at the mlb level until he hit 27 and had a few good years with us. 

Right...I get what you're saying. Prospects crash. But there's a difference between Gomez, a top ~50 prospect(actually, never quite top 50) and even a Frelick/Hiura who were top ~25 vs a #1/2 type. I'd say in terms of prospect status this is more like when Trout, Harper and Matt Moore were 1-2-3 in varying orders.

I mean, it's not like we're saying give this monster deal to Frelick, Quero(who I think is actually a bit underrated), Misiorowski...

What Chourio has done at the high levels at the age he's at, PLUS his defense, speed, and all-around talent, it's not comparable to really anyone we've EVER had. It's unprecedented for our franchise(Yount went straight up in an entirely different era). I guess it'd be like Sheffield, but we all know his issues with the org. But that type of offensive production...as a 5 tool CFer?

 

If you're not gonna pay this kid, you don't pay anyone. He's with Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Griffey Jr, Soto...he's in a group of players where I really can't find someone who failed. Royce Lewis MAYBE? He was approximating that level of prospect before he had a couple of ACL injuries. 

 

There is ALWAYS a reason you can find to NOT give a big contract to a player. That's obvious. I think in this case, there are more arguments for a small-market Brewers team to pay him. Otherwise, you're forced to trade him at the point Acuna Jr is at right now...or when the Nats traded Soto. And while it's an incredible problem to have, I'd rather the Brewers have another homegrown talent who comes up with us, develops, and turns into an MVP-caliber player through his prime than...2-3 years of a 20-23-year-old star, then start the "when do we trade him and for how much," type trade discussions we've had with Hader, Burnes.

 

I get the other perspective...and I really don't believe they do sign him before the season starts. MAYBE a shot that he signs 2 months in assuming a monster run in AAA knowing it'll now be 7 years before he's a FA, but...we'll see. 

[JosephC]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

 

The biggest difference between Hiura and Chourio is that Hiura was no longer a prospect.  At the end of 2019 his rookie status was gone and he was a MLB "proven" .938 OPS guy with well over 300 plate appearances.  It appeared his only downside was he might get stuck at DH, but his near-masher status indicated an immediate move to DH wouldn't be that much of a problem.  Chourio is young, not saying his numbers aren't impressive for the levels he's been playing at, but he's still been a .780 OPS guy in AA and an .851 OPS guy in AAA in an extremely small sample size.

Hiura isn't the only recent Brewers that should make one think twice.  There is also the Jonathan Singleton story.  His deal was for 10 million which doesn't seem like much by today's standard, but at the time it was an "unprecedented" deal (see following article) for a player that hadn't played in the majors.  We all know how that turned out.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospect-jon-singleton-to-join-astros-agrees-on-extension/c-77872300#:~:text=Marc Krauss was optioned to Triple-A. The deal,million%2C according to a Major League Baseball source.

I would not offer Chouria a big deal until he has a full year of MLB experience under his belt.

[Brewcrew82]

59 minutes ago, JosephC said:

The biggest difference between Hiura and Chourio is that Hiura was no longer a prospect.  At the end of 2019 his rookie status was gone and he was a MLB "proven" .938 OPS guy with well over 300 plate appearances.  It appeared his only downside was he might get stuck at DH, but his near-masher status indicated an immediate move to DH wouldn't be that much of a problem.  Chourio is young, not saying his numbers aren't impressive for the levels he's been playing at, but he's still been a .780 OPS guy in AA and an .851 OPS guy in AAA in an extremely small sample size.

Hiura isn't the only recent Brewers that should make one think twice.  There is also the Jonathan Singleton story.  His deal was for 10 million which doesn't seem like much by today's standard, but at the time it was an "unprecedented" deal (see following article) for a player that hadn't played in the majors.  We all know how that turned out.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospect-jon-singleton-to-join-astros-agrees-on-extension/c-77872300#:~:text=Marc Krauss was optioned to Triple-A. The deal,million%2C according to a Major League Baseball source.

I would not offer Chouria a big deal until he has a full year of MLB experience under his belt.

You wait a year to offer Chourio a deal it might be too late....

He's not comparable to either Hiura or Singleton as he's a 19 year old that has reached AAA. He just set the record for HRs in AA by a teenager. 

Compare him to Carroll, Acuna, Rodriguez, Tatis Jr. Because those are the players who have done what he's done at his age. 

[sveumrules]

Singleton spent his entire age 19 season in A+ at the bottom of the defensive spectrum with no base running value.

When Hiura was 19 he was still at UC-Irvine, also with no defensive or base running value projected in his future.

Gomez was a toolsy CF at least, though he spent his whole age 19 season in A ball and never put up the kind of power numbers as a prospect that Chourio has (while being two whole levels higher at the same age).

No prospect is any kind of guarantee, but these guys don’t seem like particularly relevant comps for Jackson (who still doesn’t turn twenty for four months) when considering things like age relative to league, defense/base running, scouting consensus, etc.

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, JosephC said:

The biggest difference between Hiura and Chourio is that Hiura was no longer a prospect.  At the end of 2019 his rookie status was gone and he was a MLB "proven" .938 OPS guy with well over 300 plate appearances.  It appeared his only downside was he might get stuck at DH, but his near-masher status indicated an immediate move to DH wouldn't be that much of a problem.  Chourio is young, not saying his numbers aren't impressive for the levels he's been playing at, but he's still been a .780 OPS guy in AA and an .851 OPS guy in AAA in an extremely small sample size.

Hiura isn't the only recent Brewers that should make one think twice.  There is also the Jonathan Singleton story.  His deal was for 10 million which doesn't seem like much by today's standard, but at the time it was an "unprecedented" deal (see following article) for a player that hadn't played in the majors.  We all know how that turned out.

 https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-prospect-jon-singleton-to-join-astros-agrees-on-extension/c-77872300#:~:text=Marc Krauss was optioned to Triple-A. The deal,million%2C according to a Major League Baseball source.

I would not offer Chouria a big deal until he has a full year of MLB experience under his belt.

Yeah, again, it's not a good example. Singleton wasn't a top 50 prospect.

Find comparable talents to Chourio, then tell me which of THOSE players have failed. That'd be a more compelling case...because I'm struggling to see it. Bryan Buxton would be closer, but still not that guy(he was ranked that highly though).

Using his stats in AA and AAA vs Hiura? Even at the MLB level. He was 18-19. Players who have done that are in a VERY rare group and Jon Singleton or Keston Hiura are not in that group. Hiura was a HS Sr/College freshman. 

Singleton was a 1B-only, limited athlete who at 21 was putting up a sub .700 OPS in the MiLB.

I'd think the Nats would have loved to have locked up Soto before or very shortly after he was promoted.

I think the bottom end of what Chourio will be is an elite OFer defensively who hits for power even if there's swing and miss. So a .250/.320/.520 type hitter who can play elite defense, the upside is...Acuna Jr.

 

Though the Braves DID sign Acuna Jr after a ROY season, and we've seen elite prospects bust, so I get the trepidation and I see why you hold your opinion. I just think some guys, a very rare few are different and you see it before they play in the Big Leagues. If we had Jackson Holliday, I'd be arguing for the same thing. An elite SS such as him...

Again, I suspect the Brewers will choose to go your route. 

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You wait a year to offer Chourio a deal it might be too late....

He's not comparable to either Hiura or Singleton as he's a 19 year old that has reached AAA. He just set the record for HRs in AA by a teenager. 

Compare him to Carroll, Acuna, Rodriguez, Tatis Jr. Because those are the players who have done what he's done at his age. 

Note to self;

Scroll down so you can see two others have made the exact same point in a much more succinct manner idiot😁

 

[KeithStone53151]

Here's a list of all position players that have been a top 5 prospect between 2011 and 2018. Trout, Harper, Dominic Brown, Dustin Ackley, jurickson profar, Oscar taveras, wil Myers, Byron Buxton, Xander boegarts, Miguel Santo, kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco lindor, Addison Russell, Corey seager, jp Crawford, Andrew benintendi, yoan moncada, gleybar Torres, dansby Swanson, Ahmed Rosario, Ronald acuna, Vlad jr, Eloy Jimenez. There's certainly a few superstars, a few solid players, and a few "who the heck is that". So right off the rip, just know this is going to be a horrendous deal at least 1/3 of the time. Just imagine signing profar or benintendi or yoan moncada to a 100+ million deal. On top of that, it's not like we're playing MLB the show and you can sign any guy to a deal. I really don't think young players are going to be quite as amenable to a big and super team friendly extension so early. A guy like acuna may end up a cautionary tale as Juan Soto earns more than double what acuna gets over his career despite being debatably similar quality players. Obviously this is speculation on my part and at the very least is a variable dependent on the specific player/person. I guess my stance is im potentially open to it, but the risk is quite high. Especially considering chourio really hasn't lit up the stat sheets in AA/aaa. His numbers certainly are good. But are they 100+ million numbers? I'd feel a bit better about any extension if he was doing what Jackson Holliday did this year, who is a pretty close comparable for Chourio considering age/level.

[Lathund]

Of course there is risk involved. There has to be when there's a big reward involved. Basically you ask yourself if you want any chance of keeping him beyond the 6 years of team control in case he becomes a star. If you do, you sign an early extension. If the risk is too rich, you're saying you'll have the option of cutting loose in case he's a bust, but also will likely have to compete with other teams in free agency if you want to keep him. The reward is huge; having an Acuña on an Acuña type deal does so, so much for your competitive chances especially as a small-budget team. I also think Chourio has a relatively low risk of being a complete bust, as in someone who doesn't merit a spot on a ML roster. That'd be due to injuries if so. Defense and baserunning value is there already and is fairly consistent. He already has a lot of power (22 HRs as a teenager in AA is super rare). He has cut down the strikeouts a lot too; bat speed and bat control suggests he'll be able to adjust fairly well. Point is, even if he doesn't fulfill all the promise he has, he still has a lot to fall back on. With his speed and defense an Acuña type deal ($100m/8 years. Plus options) would be worth it even with fairly pedestrian hitting. 

With that list of players I'd break it down more like roughly 25% bust, 25% superstar, 25% all-star, 25% average-ish starter. To me that kind of risk seems well worth it. Now it obviously also depends on what kind of deal at what time. A low-end extension after already showing some ability to handle MLB pitching is obviously preferable to a somewhat expensive pre-debut deal. So much of this depends on Chourio, his agent, Brewers' risk appetite and so forth.  

I wouldn't say it's an easy decision, so much goes into it. But it's at the very least something the Brewers should pursue aggressively in the hope a good deal can be reached. The upside is too good not to at least seriously try, despite any risk. 

[Brewcrew82]

21 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Here's a list of all position players that have been a top 5 prospect between 2011 and 2018. Trout, Harper, Dominic Brown, Dustin Ackley, jurickson profar, Oscar taveras, wil Myers, Byron Buxton, Xander boegarts, Miguel Santo, kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco lindor, Addison Russell, Corey seager, jp Crawford, Andrew benintendi, yoan moncada, gleybar Torres, dansby Swanson, Ahmed Rosario, Ronald acuna, Vlad jr, Eloy Jimenez. There's certainly a few superstars, a few solid players, and a few "who the heck is that". So right off the rip, just know this is going to be a horrendous deal at least 1/3 of the time. Just imagine signing profar or benintendi or yoan moncada to a 100+ million deal. On top of that, it's not like we're playing MLB the show and you can sign any guy to a deal. I really don't think young players are going to be quite as amenable to a big and super team friendly extension so early. A guy like acuna may end up a cautionary tale as Juan Soto earns more than double what acuna gets over his career despite being debatably similar quality players. Obviously this is speculation on my part and at the very least is a variable dependent on the specific player/person. I guess my stance is im potentially open to it, but the risk is quite high. Especially considering chourio really hasn't lit up the stat sheets in AA/aaa. His numbers certainly are good. But are they 100+ million numbers? I'd feel a bit better about any extension if he was doing what Jackson Holliday did this year, who is a pretty close comparable for Chourio considering age/level.

A couple things:

First of all, you'd obviously give him some major league run before offering such a deal. Wait until he proves himself at a high level. That mitigates some of the risk right there. 

Second, not all top 5 prospects are created equal. Guys like Crawford, Russell, and Rosario were shortstops who were ranked highly due to their elite gloves at a premium defensive position and who showed promising tools with the bat at a time when the average offensive production for shortstops was severely depressed across baseball. They didn't necessarily have the same minor league production with the bat as some of these other guys, but were ranked highly due to the floor provided by the glove combined with the upside to hit at a high level for a shortstop. Some, like Crawford, eventually realized their offensive potential, while others, like Rosario and Russell, never did. Chourio is not really comparable to them, however, as his offensive production in the minors pretty clearly outpaces theirs. Also, some of these other guys, like Swanson, Bryant, Ackley, Benintendi were drafted out of college. They tend to have a safer floor, but not as high a ceiling. While Ackley was a pure "bust", each of Swanson, Bryant, and Benintendi have established themselves in the majors and experienced their share of success, yet have fallen short of superstar status, which is to be expected from college picks with limited ceilings. Chourio wouldn't even be draft eligible out of college until 2025, so again, not really comparable.

If you want to compare Chourio to previous top 5 prospects, he'd go into a tier with Julio Rodriguez, Tatis Jr., Acuna, Vlad Jr, Trout, Profar, Harper, etc. These are guys who all reached full-season ball at 18 years of age and proceeded to light it up with the bat, as Chourio did last year when he was the MVP of the Carolina League with a 160 wRC+ and .324/.373/.600 slash line. He then made it to AA, which only Tatis and Harper did. This is by far the tier with the best track record, as only Profar failed to become a superstar, and that was largely a result of injuries early in his career. Interestingly, Chourio's career minor league OPS of .837 is almost identical to Acuna's (.841)....

As for Chourio's numbers in AA this year, he had a slower first half due to the pre-tacked ball experiment in the Southern League which severely affected the spin and movement of pitches and led to a lot more weak contact and swing and miss. Meanwhile, Jackson Holliday did not have to deal with this as he played in a different league that used the regular ball. Once the ball went back to normal in the second half, Chourio essentially repeated his dominance from last year with a slash line of .323/.380/.544. This actually was superior to Jackson Holliday's second half slash line of .313/.412/.470.

So, while Chourio's not a surefire superstar (no prospect is), his type of profile is historically as close as it gets...Which is why I'm personally eager to lock him up sooner than later.