Direction of the franchise?

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, wildcat2237 said:

You might be right. However, I would be counting on the Burnes/Williams/Peralta trades to bring in some bigtime players on the verge on breaking into the MLB. 

I dont think its completely unrealistic where we already have Mitchell, Frelick, Contreras. Then you add in Chourio/Black and maybe 3-4 players added in trades. Clearling salary would allow for 3-4 FA signings as necessary. 

They would...it would certainly give us quite an insane group of young talent adding with what we already have. Hopefully we would avoid a half decade saga of losing. 

Still gotta hit on some guys though. Royals have been a dumpster fire since they won the World Series and I don't find them terribly ran. What we wouldn't have is on TOR arm...something we dearly need to actually compete. That isn't easy to find and certainly hard to try and get in a trade.

[Matt Breen]

I'm getting more of a feeling that a semi-tear down is coming. Here's the guess:

Deal Burnes, Williams, and Adamas. 

Peralta could go, but with with three years of control remaining at a reasonable rates - he's a keeper and part of the future.

Woodruff probably will be non-tendered or maybe traded - especially when he sees the selloff begin. I doubt Woodruff does a two-year deal as people have suggested. He's better off becoming a free agent and finding a team that will do the same thing - but a better future. And the club doesn't want to pay him $12m+ to be injured. Perhaps trade him to a team who he would agree on a new deal. But in the long run, Woody can just tell any team 'offer me Arby or let me go' - and he'll be let go.

Team would trade Yelich, but I'm guessing he's hard to move. He's still a good player, but he's owed $130m+. That's hard to swallow for any team - but you never know. 

Team has a lot of young talent right now, and could add a few players via trades. Make 2024 about incorporating the young guys into the lineup - Black, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, and - eventually - Quero and Chourio. 

I expect 2024 to be a tough year.

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Still gotta hit on some guys though. Royals have been a dumpster fire since they won the World Series and I don't find them terribly ran. What we wouldn't have is on TOR arm...something we dearly need to actually compete. That isn't easy to find and certainly hard to try and get in a trade.

Royals had a couple middling seasons after their WS runs, but have won 338 games since 2018, fewest in MLB. Tigers at 355 are second worst.

Until they turn out more than Bobby Witt, I'd have them down there with the Rockies and A's among the bottom three or four run franchises in the game currently.

Brewers player development is on the entire other end of the spectrum.

 

[wallus]

Tear it down (Burnes, Williams and Adames) and play the kids.

If they show enough promise by the deadline, get them some help to make the playoffs.

[MrTPlush]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Royals had a couple middling seasons after their WS runs, but have won 338 games since 2018, fewest in MLB. Tigers at 355 are second worst.

Until they turn out more than Bobby Witt, I'd have them down there with the Rockies and A's among the bottom three or four run franchises in the game currently.

Brewers player development is on the entire other end of the spectrum.

 

Not saying their development is better, just saying they aren't dysfunctional. A lot of luck is involved even with having good player development. Even with the best ideas, finding success in baseball comes with 4x as much failure. Stearns was hitting the lottery early on picking up Villar/Shaw/Aguilar....but obviously it wasn't always going to be that great of odds for success. Really the main reason we rebuilt so fast. Had we hit on those types of moves at a more reasonable pace, we probably wouldn't have been on the radar in 2017 and probably don't have the year we did in 2018. 

That isn't a knock on Stearns or the Brewers FO...they just had a lot go right. It probably doesn't happen that well again when we try to rebuild.

[SeaBass]

38 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I'm getting more of a feeling that a semi-tear down is coming. Here's the guess:

Deal Burnes, Williams, and Adamas. 

Peralta could go, but with with three years of control remaining at a reasonable rates - he's a keeper and part of the future.

Woodruff probably will be non-tendered or maybe traded - especially when he sees the selloff begin. I doubt Woodruff does a two-year deal as people have suggested. He's better off becoming a free agent and finding a team that will do the same thing - but a better future. And the club doesn't want to pay him $12m+ to be injured. Perhaps trade him to a team who he would agree on a new deal. But in the long run, Woody can just tell any team 'offer me Arby or let me go' - and he'll be let go.

Team would trade Yelich, but I'm guessing he's hard to move. He's still a good player, but he's owed $130m+. That's hard to swallow for any team - but you never know. 

Team has a lot of young talent right now, and could add a few players via trades. Make 2024 about incorporating the young guys into the lineup - Black, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, and - eventually - Quero and Chourio. 

I expect 2024 to be a tough year.

Yelich has deferred money as part of his deal so in reality he's getting $22M per year for the next 5 seasons plus the '29 mutual option year w/ $6.5M buyout. So 5 years, $116.5M.

Brewers could offer to pay for the deferral years ($2.5M per year over 12 years assuming option buyout) and I think that would make Yelich more attractive. Maybe even offer to cover the buyout. I don't think any of that would be a hardship for them even though it would total potentially over $34M.

Edited November 9, 2023 by SeaBass
Corrected deferral numbers.

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Yelich has deferred money as part of his deal so in reality he's getting $22M per year for the next 5 seasons plus the '29 mutual option year w/ $6.5M buyout. So 5 years, $116.5M.

Brewers could offer to pay for the deferral years ($2.33M per year over 12 years) and I think that would make Yelich more attractive. Maybe even offer to cover the buyout. I don't think any of that would be a hardship for them even though it would total potentially over $34M.

Yelich had a nice year, but I can't imagine there are many teams out there that would be dumb enough to chance it and trade for him. If Yelich was on the market this winter, what would he honestly get? I can't imagine $100mil going on 32. He should borderline not even be playing the OF.

I don't know a great recent comp off the top of my head, but something like 5/$80mil seems plausibly accurate for what he would get. Maybe that is too much even, I don't know. Feel free to correct me if you have a good comp for him. $22mil a season seems pretty steep though.

 

[SeaBass]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Yelich had a nice year, but I can't imagine there are many teams out there that would be dumb enough to chance it and trade for him. If Yelich was on the market this winter, what would he honestly get? I can't imagine $100mil going on 32. He should borderline not even be playing the OF.

I don't know a great recent comp off the top of my head, but something like 5/$80mil seems plausibly accurate for what he would get. Maybe that is too much even, I don't know. Feel free to correct me if you have a good comp for him. $22mil a season seems pretty steep though.

 

Absolutely true. But if he maintains his production next season maybe that convinces a team to do a midseason trade. My thought was that $22M isn't far off a QO for a free agent. If you're comparing signing a guy like Yelich to alternatively signing Bellinger for a likely higher salary which guy is more attractive?

Probably still Bellinger because he's younger but there's only one of him. Yelich may not cost as much in trade talent either due to the salary or maybe they get the Brewers to absorb even more money.

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Absolutely true. But if he maintains his production next season maybe that convinces a team to do a midseason trade. My thought was that $22M isn't far off a QO for a free agent. If you're comparing signing a guy like Yelich to alternatively signing Bellinger for a likely higher salary which guy is more attractive?

Well, Bellinger is 27 years old...so I would sign Bellinger over Yelich easily. Assuming I was interested in either of them...I have seen Bellinger predicted around 100-150mil. Not sure how many years, but I assume the inference was 5 years. 

If we could unload $100mil of his salary, I would probably do it. Past that, I don't know there is much value in trading him. If he hits well in 2024, I think his market grows way bigger as he would appear a lot less risky of an add. 

[tmwiese55]

Bellinger is one I was thinking of a few days ago when I said I hope the Cubs blow their wad in FA this year.   There's a very good chance they'll be voluntarily taking on a Yelich type burden of a contract.  It'll probably be similar money to what Yeli is owed too.   

But yes, at his age maybe the bounceback year wasn't a fluke. Sure there is a chance of that. But the advanced data doesn't say so. But its just an example of what I mean by this FA class is very questionable if Bellinger is one of the top guys with all the risk he involves. 

[Jopal78]

On 11/6/2023 at 11:43 PM, TPlush said:

Looking back, most of us can agree that the mid-2000s up through the 2011 NLCS run, we were on an upward trajectory; drafted and developed plenty of young talent, made a few big moves (Sabathia, Greinke, etc.) and changed the narrative about the franchise. After a few not so great years, Melvin's final year, trading assets for rebuilding pieces, and into the Stearns era, also felt like the team was on an upward trajectory. Yelich and Cain acquisitions, the 2018 NLCS run, division titles, the "pitching lab", etc.

It feels like for about a year or so now the tide is turning though. Trading an elite closer at the trade deadline while leading the division, to save money on payroll. Stearns' "bites of the apple" comment. Attanasio threatening to move the team if the stadium deal didn't get done. And now our biggest rival steals our highly-regarded, Milwaukee-native manager. We haven't even gotten to the Burnes (or Adames? and forget about Woodruff) trades yet.

My point is not to be all doom and gloom. We're still much better off than we were 20-25 years ago. But it sure feels like we're entering (or have entered) a phase where ownership is just mailing it in, letting the franchise value go up while not really caring about the fans or team all that much. Not Rockies or Athetics level of dgaf at all, but more like a Minnesota Timberwolves "we're happy to make the playoffs! Yay!" type of mentality.

Or maybe player salaries have exploded since the most recent CBA putting all but bargain bin free agents outside Milwaukee’s budget, and wrecking any chance of extending current players.
 

Second, this player group has been together since 2018, anybody who wasn’t expecting it to break up has been in denial or not paying attention.
 

Why did Stearns resign? Because GMs in today’s game don’t typically stick around for the rebuild. Counsell left to chase the money plain and simple and probably also knew it was the end.

So there’s not much to do now except be excited for the inevitable young and hungry players. Maybe they catch a break and hit on a few of them and get back on top fairly soon. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Bellinger is one I was thinking of a few days ago when I said I hope the Cubs blow their wad in FA this year.   There's a very good chance they'll be voluntarily taking on a Yelich type burden of a contract.  It'll probably be similar money to what Yeli is owed too.   

But yes, at his age maybe the bounceback year wasn't a fluke. Sure there is a chance of that. But the advanced data doesn't say so. But its just an example of what I mean by this FA class is very questionable if Bellinger is one of the top guys with all the risk he involves. 

I think he'll get more than Yelich has and I think he'll be longer. 7/180, MAYBE 8/210. 

And I think it'll be awful. Jason Heyward bad. So good defensively, maybe some occasional flashes, but generally a poor deal. 

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I'm getting more of a feeling that a semi-tear down is coming. Here's the guess:

Deal Burnes, Williams, and Adamas. 

Peralta could go, but with with three years of control remaining at a reasonable rates - he's a keeper and part of the future.

Woodruff probably will be non-tendered or maybe traded - especially when he sees the selloff begin. I doubt Woodruff does a two-year deal as people have suggested. He's better off becoming a free agent and finding a team that will do the same thing - but a better future. And the club doesn't want to pay him $12m+ to be injured. Perhaps trade him to a team who he would agree on a new deal. But in the long run, Woody can just tell any team 'offer me Arby or let me go' - and he'll be let go.

Team would trade Yelich, but I'm guessing he's hard to move. He's still a good player, but he's owed $130m+. That's hard to swallow for any team - but you never know. 

Team has a lot of young talent right now, and could add a few players via trades. Make 2024 about incorporating the young guys into the lineup - Black, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, and - eventually - Quero and Chourio. 

I expect 2024 to be a tough year.

Is Peralta really a part of the future? If you are punting 2024, that is 33% of his remaining control. If you are really optimistic 2025 is maybe .500ish…that is 66% of his control. So you are holding onto him for 2 years to hope you can ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026? Brewers should sell high on him, but I doubt they do because then this off-season will look like a total fire sale. Peralta and Contreras are probably safe for that reason barring a trade offer out of this world.

Im not sure Woodruff cares about a teams ability to compete. He just wants to get back and showcase for a FA contract. 

A lot of people expect Adames to get traded, I’m not so sure. Seems like a guy to keep around unless someone overvalues him. If no one does, pray he puts together a huge first half to be the crown jewel of the trade deadline. If not we can probably still get a draft pick for him.

[Axman59]

To whatever team signs Bellinger, I think it will be an unmitigated disaster. 3 bad seasons followed by 1 good when he absolutely had to be his best to get a big contract. 🤔

Once he lands a nine figure deal I foresee a steep drop in production.

[Thurston Fluff]

22 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I get the division isn't a powerhouse and it doesn't take much to make the postseason at this point...but to think we are going to implode the roster and then be chugging along looking at division titles in 2025 is Mt Everest level optimism. 

People expecting a quick turnaround like last time, just two short years of bad baseball before thrusting into success again truly don't appreciate how much had to go right for that to happen. Even that took two years and even the Cubs needed two years to reset things before barely getting to .500 this year. Which they have the benefit of money to buy impact FAs. 

It could happen...but that is quite a long shot. You are probably looking at '26 or even '27 depending on how the offense actually turns out. We have a lot of nice prospects, but hardly can't miss guys (minus Chourio) on offense. That is asking for a lot of rookies and 2nd year guys to go sprinting out of the gates. Where is the starting rotation in '25? Your theory bombs the whole thing.

They did so last time with less trade chips and fewer options in the minors. Granted Hader, Burnes and Woody were close but so are Chourio, Misiorowski, and Black. Then we have a good batch of second tier prospects like Gasser, Quero and Rodriguez. Combine that with who's already here and it's not hard to imagine them continuing without any rebuild let alone a two year one.

[Matt Breen]

10 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Is Peralta really a part of the future? If you are punting 2024, that is 33% of his remaining control. If you are really optimistic 2025 is maybe .500ish…that is 66% of his control. So you are holding onto him for 2 years to hope you can ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026? Brewers should sell high on him, but I doubt they do because then this off-season will look like a total fire sale. Peralta and Contreras are probably safe for that reason barring a trade offer out of this world.

Im not sure Woodruff cares about a teams ability to compete. He just wants to get back and showcase for a FA contract. 

A lot of people expect Adames to get traded, I’m not so sure. Seems like a guy to keep around unless someone overvalues him. If no one does, pray he puts together a huge first half to be the crown jewel of the trade deadline. If not we can probably still get a draft pick for him.

Whatever works in the minds of the Brewer front office. He's worth a ton right now - so maybe it is the best time to deal him (assuming we are punting 2024). It would be fascinating to see the return.

[homer]

Stranger things have happened but I'd be really surprised if they did a wholesale rebuild. Attanasio is going to want to stay competitive, IMO. I think Peralta and Williams will still be Brewers next season.

[tmwiese55]

5 minutes ago, homer said:

Stranger things have happened but I'd be really surprised if they did a wholesale rebuild. Attanasio is going to want to stay competitive, IMO. I think Peralta and Williams will still be Brewers next season.

Yea technically if Burnes and/or Adames are going then so should they.    However, I kind of agree with you their idea of being competitive will likely have them keep those two to still try to be above 500 and have a chance at the playoffs.  Then trade them when they have 1 year left.  There is a solid logic with it since the division is trash. Plus is their returns gonna be drastically different if they trade them this year vs next?

Side note, saw some rumors update thing saying Phi was open to trading Castellanos, think he has 3/60 left on his deal.  A stay completive type move to help fix the O could be made up based around Williams for Castellanos type trade.  Phi's big weakness is bullpen. 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

They did so last time with less trade chips and fewer options in the minors. Granted Hader, Burnes and Woody were close but so are Chourio, Misiorowski, and Black. Then we have a good batch of second tier prospects like Gasser, Quero and Rodriguez. Combine that with who's already here and it's not hard to imagine them continuing without any rebuild let alone a two year one.

Similar situation (some good trade chips), but we got stupid lucky when we traded the likes of Gomez/Lucroy/etc. Either got major contributors or flipped them for something good (Yelich)

It could happen again…but it is quite likely we trade those guys and it ends up like when we acquire players shipping back prospects…the prospects are useless garbage.

Could happen…but wow, that would be winning the lottery twice in a row.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Similar situation (some good trade chips), but we got stupid lucky when we traded the likes of Gomez/Lucroy/etc. Either got major contributors or flipped them for something good (Yelich)

It could happen again…but it is quite likely we trade those guys and it ends up like when we acquire players shipping back prospects…the prospects are useless garbage.

Could happen…but wow, that would be winning the lottery twice in a row.

Yea it couldn't possibly be good management that made those trades successful. It had to be sheer luck to get that one in a million successful trade.  I mean what evidence do we have that makes anyone think Arnold might be able to swing a decent trade again?

[thebruce44]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Similar situation (some good trade chips), but we got stupid lucky when we traded the likes of Gomez/Lucroy/etc. Either got major contributors or flipped them for something good (Yelich)

It could happen again…but it is quite likely we trade those guys and it ends up like when we acquire players shipping back prospects…the prospects are useless garbage.

Could happen…but wow, that would be winning the lottery twice in a row.

Anything can happen, but the odds of producing 2 top 10 pitchers again has to be very small. 

[Thurston Fluff]

47 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

Anything can happen, but the odds of producing 2 top 10 pitchers again has to be very small. 

There's more ways to win than having two top 10 pitchers. We have to get over what we no longer have and get on with figuring out how we can win with what we have. A top farm system combined with highly valuable trading pieces isn't exactly an empty cupboard.

[Royhobbs]

Burnes has to be moved this offseason.  A full year of Burnes to a big market team who could afford to resign him has to be worth 2 top 100 prospects and maybe a lottery ticket on top of it.  Sign Willy in arby and maybe even extend him.  He would be cheaper to extend after a down year last year and think that he has a load of talent.  Would love to see what a top end hitting instructor would do with him.  He is the kind of guy that will leave then OPS .900 the next year with a different team.

Unloading Burnes is not a tear down.  Their lineup should be better next year simply by the maturing of their young talent.  Let Frelick bat in his natural position as a leadoff hitter.  A full year of Garret Mitchell. Any contribution from Churio and Black will top what they got out of the 3rd base position and 4th outfield position.  Sprinkle in a couple of vets (Santana, maybe Candelario - who they can absolutely afford) and this lineup should be significantly better than last year.

Between Freddy and Ashby and Houser, one of the rooks and a FA agent signing - bring Miley back, their rotation won't be much worse than last year.  We have to remember how much time Woody and Miley missed.

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Yea it couldn't possibly be good management that made those trades successful. It had to be sheer luck to get that one in a million successful trade.  I mean what evidence do we have that makes anyone think Arnold might be able to swing a decent trade again?

It’s like you decided to not read my posts and felt the need to be condescending. Cool

[rickh150]

Yelich could about be given away now to any team willing to pay his salary. Not that I think we should do this, but with CC leaving the bat signal calls for a rebuild and to prioritize funds to younger players. The fan base is open to all this now.