MLB 2023/2024 Free Agency Thread

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Right, even after winning World Series MVP with the Braves they didn’t think he was worth retaining at the 3/36 with  two opt outs he got from the Marlins.

Pretty sure getting Acuna back healthy for 2022, Ozuna still on their books at $16M as their primary DH/backup corner OF,  trading for Olson and promptly extending him, and also figuring out how to incorporate their own young OF talent between Ozuna, Acuna, and Rosario already in the mix all had alot more to do with not keeping Soler around than that contract amount. That was the same offseason they let Freddie Freeman walk, too.

[wallus]

2 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Pitchers and catchers are reporting today/tomorrow and there's still a lot of quality players looking for jobs (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker):

• 7 of the 32 FAs proj for at least 1.5 fWAR still available
• 5 of the 18 FAs proj for 1.0-1.4 fWAR still available
• 16 of the 43 FAs proj for 0.5-0.9 fWAR still available

That's over 30% of the top 93 FAs!

Belt and Solano are interesting names that could help the Crew and not demand a long term contract.

[sveumrules]

42 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Pretty sure getting Acuna back healthy for 2022, Ozuna still on their books at $16M as their primary DH/backup corner OF,  trading for Olson and promptly extending him, and also figuring out how to incorporate their own young OF talent between Ozuna, Acuna, and Rosario already in the mix all had alot more to do with not keeping Soler around than that contract amount. That was the same offseason they let Freddie Freeman walk, too.

Rosario was re-signed that offseason for 2/18, so they had no problem bringing him back after his postseason success. Maybe they preferred him to Soler because he was cheaper and could still play the field even though he doesn't have nearly the same power potential.

They gave Ozuna 4/65 covering 2021-24, so far they've gotten 74 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR (2021), then 89 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR (2022) before he finally paid it off this last year with a 139 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR.

So for the first three years and $46M of the Ozuna deal they got a total of 2.5 WAR and one productive season. Therein lies the danger of paying big money for multiple years of a bat only DH who doesn't provide value anywhere else.

[brewerfan82]

37 minutes ago, wallus said:

Belt and Solano are interesting names that could help the Crew and not demand a long term contract.

I'm on the Solano train. Seems like a nice bat that has the ability to play multiple positions (1B, 2B, 3B, DH) allowing Murphy to mix and match him in the lineup and provides flexibility throughout the season depending on how the young guys progress (or flop).

2021-23 vs. RHP:

2021-23 vs. LHP:

Throw Ortiz and Black into the mix and we have some nice options.

I guess the main question is whether or not he's too much of a liability defensively to be used in that role.

[Fear The Chorizo]

23 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Rosario was re-signed that offseason for 2/18, so they had no problem bringing him back after his postseason success. Maybe they preferred him to Soler because he was cheaper and could still play the field even though he doesn't have nearly the same power potential.

They gave Ozuna 4/65 covering 2021-24, so far they've gotten 74 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR (2021), then 89 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR (2022) before he finally paid it off this last year with a 139 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR.

So for the first three years and $46M of the Ozuna deal they got a total of 2.5 WAR and one productive season. Therein lies the danger of paying big money for multiple years of a bat only DH who doesn't provide value anywhere else.

So is it better to pay Hoskins 2yrs, $34M up to 3 yrs, $48M (or 1yr about $16M with the opt out) to play subpar defense at 1B on the heels of missing a full season due to knee surgery?  Hoskins' 2022 season was worse statistically than Soler's 2023 - what if Hoskins has a bad 2024 season, meaning the Brewers will absolutely be on the hook for at least that full $34M dollars over two seasons with a decent likelihood of $48M over 3?

My point on the 2022 Braves' roster and why they made no effort to resign Soler at that time is that they already had Ozuna signed to be their bat-first RH hitter with pop that was destined to be a primary DH for 3 more seasons - there was no point to signing Soler to that same role for 2022 and beyond.  Soler was traded for at the 2021 deadline to fill that role after Ozuna broke bones in his hand to miss a bunch of the 1st half and then was put on leave due to domestic violence issues. 

Ozuna's contract signed 3 years ago, Hoskins' contract including the optout, I'm certain JD Matrinez's next contract, etc. are in the mid to upper teens of millions of dollars for bat-only RH hitters with thump - Soler making a tick less than that AAV over 3 seasons for ages 32-34 just isn't the catastrophic risk people are making it out to be just because he isn't a gold glove caliber defender.  It's the going rate in free agency for a guy to give you 30+ HR a season no matter what the rest of his metrics look like.

[sveumrules]

27 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

So is it better to pay Hoskins 2yrs, $34M up to 3 yrs, $48M (or 1yr about $16M with the opt out) to play subpar defense at 1B on the heels of missing a full season due to knee surgery? Hoskins' 2022 season was worse statistically than Soler's 2023

I think so, yes.

Hoskins has been far more consistent than Soler throughout their careers. Rhys has five seasons between 2.0 and 2.4 WAR. Soler has one season at 3.7 WAR back in 2019 with the juiced ball, a 1.9 WAR season last year and that's it. His third best season was 0.7 WAR as a rookie back in 2014.

2021
RH: 443 PA | 127 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR
JS: 602 PA | 100 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR

2022
RH: 672 PA | 122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR
JS: 306 PA | 95 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR

Soler's 2023 (126 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR) actually came in a little lower overall than Hoskins 2022 (122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR).

Career
RH: 2877 PA | 126 wRC+ | 11.6 WAR (2.4 WAR / 600 PA)
JS: 3472 PA | 112 wRC+ | 7.4 WAR (1.3 WAR / 600 PA)

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I believe of the 5 remaining top 25 MLB free agents heading into this offseason that haven't yet signed a contract, all 5 are Boras clients.

 

shocking

[LouisEly]

On 2/13/2024 at 11:41 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The Brewers are also flush with OFers, and Yelich's effectiveness in the OF isn't going to get any better as he ages. Unless he makes the move to 1B after Hoskins leaves, he'll eventually be the primary DH.

Not only that, but the Brewers want Contreras to DH to keep his bat in the lineup when he needs a break from catching.  Debate the semantics of "primary" DH, but between Yelich and Contreras there aren't going to be many PAs at DH available.  Certainly not enough to warrant $14M/year for the remainder.

I'm really shocked at how many times I hear people say that Yelich isn't going to at the least get a lot of time at DH.  I mean, who would you rather have in the OF, Yelich or all three of Frelick/Mitchell/Chourio?

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Not only that, but the Brewers want Contreras to DH to keep his bat in the lineup when he needs a break from catching.  Debate the semantics of "primary" DH, but between Yelich and Contreras there aren't going to be many PAs at DH available.  Certainly not enough to warrant $14M/year for the remainder.

I'm really shocked at how many times I hear people say that Yelich isn't going to at the least get a lot of time at DH.  I mean, who would you rather have in the OF, Yelich or all three of Frelick/Mitchell/Chourio?

Depends if at least 1 of those 3 young OFers aren't hitting worth a lick, then id want Yelich in left.  The game has gotten to the point where roughly 40 percent of outs in a game are Ks, so I'd much rather have an OF that may have one avg to below avg defender in it costing the team a fraction of a run every week but who helps create multiple runs offensively in that same time than an OF full of gold gloves but 1-2 players hitting like a 1980s utility IF.

Defense and run prevention is important, but i think recent Brewer teams have leaned way too far into that side of the roster at the expense of scoring runs.  For a team whose longterm weakness is offense, there should be tons of ABs for a separate DH that isnt their starting LF or starting catcher.  I'd prefer Yelich, with a history of back issues, gets actual days off instead of being a quasi DH because the rest of the team can't hit and then see him wear down in september again.  Same goes for a catcher, no matter how young Contreras might be.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

shocking

When is enough enough for this stalemate with Boras clients that has progressively dragged the mlb offseason into spring training the past few seasons?  I'd like to see the mlb free agency period end or at least pause before the regular season starts by end of January.  If you don't sign a contract by then, you're free to do so after opening day at what will most likely be a reduced 1st year of the deal, particularly for a starter who wont be game ready for a month - but enough already.

 

These players aren't being blackballed from signing contracts, their asking prices are just not realistic for the caliber player they've proven to be.  At some point they have to wake up and sign what's being offered.

[RobertCrawley]

Anyone done a deep dive into Joshua Quezada? How good is he and when can we expect him to help us in the Bigs?

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The game has gotten to the point where roughly 40 percent of outs in a game are Ks,

184,110 PAs in 2023 at a .320 league average OBP maths out to 125,195 outs.

41,844 Ks / 125,295 outs = 33.4% of outs were Ks.

That leaves 66.6% of outs that were registered by fielders, just shy of twice as many or still the overwhelming majority.

One of the main reasons the Brewers have given up the 3rd fewest hits in MLB going back all the way to 2017 (four years before Burnes, Woody and Peralta put it all together in 2021) is because they have consistently been among the best teams (+249 DRS | 3rd) at turning batted balls into outs instead of hits.

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

184,110 PAs in 2023 at a .320 league average OBP maths out to 125,195 outs.

41,844 Ks / 125,295 outs = 33.4% of outs were Ks.

That leaves 66.6% of outs that were registered by fielders, just shy of twice as many or still the overwhelming majority.

One of the main reasons the Brewers have given up the 3rd fewest hits in MLB going back all the way to 2017 (four years before Burnes, Woody and Peralta put it all together in 2021) is because they have consistently been among the best teams (+249 DRS | 3rd) at turning batted balls into outs instead of hits.

Absolutely none of this is any different than what I posted earlier, and doesn't take away from the fact the Brewers have been too focused on run prevention at the expense of scoring.

 

Of the 20-25 batted balls that either result in outs or hits per game, I'd guess the average number of chances a left fielder gets a game is 3, and tough chances where a great defensive player creates an out vs giving up a hit is about 0.4 a game.  I'm just fine with a mediocre corner OF that can hit like a corner OF in left plus a good DH in the lineup most days instead of a great defensive left fielder who can't hit playing their while that mediocre LF makes $25m a season to DH and the lineup is worse.

 

I'm hopeful all our young OFs prove to be plus assets offensively, too.  But just because the Brewers have a bunch of them doesn't mean they should play them all everyday before they prove they are good mlb offensive players. 

[markedman5]

 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Does this mean Bellinger isn't coming back?

[TURBO]

27 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Needle moving signing for sure.

[stalton]

38 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Cubs just wanted to emulate the Brewers by having a Peralta on their team.

[Underachiever]

Pablo Sandoval was out there the whole time, THE WHOLE TIME!?!?!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/giants/2024/02/19/san-francisco-giants-farhan-zaidi-pablo-sandoval/72662635007/

[TURBO]

According to Jeeho Yoo of the Yonhap News, Hyun Jin Ryu signed with Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization.

 

The Hanwha Eagles have said nothing is confirmed, but is looking likely Jin Ryu will return to his former team in the KBO. According to Naver Sports, the deal is worth a little under $13 million over 4 years. Jin Ryu pitched for the Eagles from 2006-2012 and has said in the past he would finish his baseball career with the team. In his 7 seasons with the Eagles, Jin Ryu posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 181 starts. The 36-year-old lefty, who came back from Tommy John surgery last season, was unable to find a deal in MLB after spending the last 4 seasons with the Blue Jays. Last season, he made 11 starts and posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP across 52 innings. A reunion with the Hanwha Eagles, the team that began his professional career, seems pretty fitting.

Source: Jeeho Yoo

[Lloyd330]

Boras getting blackballed is awesome

[Underachiever]

I think you gotta pick a lane. Boras is the best, or he wouldn't be getting the most high-profile clients. Otherwise you fall on the side of the owners. Any free agent deadline would keep money in their pockets because their monopoly gives the players no reasonable other place to try their skill.

I would imagine that every free agent still out there has had some sort of offer by now. They could have taken it. They are gambling with their own career, and for every Brandon Woodruff, there is a Dansby Swanson that gets what they were looking for.
 

How would that deadline even work? "Sign by December 31, or you're out of the league." It's unworkable.

[torts]

I'd love to see what cut boras gets of the contracts.  He may be the best , but he probably also takes the most from players too.  I'm sure he's not taking a smaller cut to get his players more

[CheeseheadInQC]

We will have to see if Boras overplayed his hand this year, whether the uncertainty over the RSNs has made his usual wait ‘em out strategy less effective.

[wibadgers23]

The players would never in a million years agree to a deadline and it would be a waste of everyone’s time for MLB to present any sort of proposal that includes a deadline for free agency.

[brewerfan82]

Rosario (w/ Rays) and Urshela (w/ Tigers) have each signed 1 yr, $1.5M contracts this week (link). If Solano can be had on a similar contract, I would really like how the roster is shaping out. The IF/DH spots would have some nice options to rotate through:

2021-23 vs. RHP:

2021-23 vs. LHP:

*Plus Ortiz and Black who obviously don't have MLB splits available

Not that we'd have all 10 of those guys on the roster at the same time, but it would create some nice competition in camp for the last couple spots and add depth and security for the year.