Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[Matt]

Quote

 

The Milwaukee Brewers are talking with top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio about a landmark contract that could influence the direction of their offseason and the makeup of their 2024 roster.

The deal for Chourio, who has played only six games above for Double A, would establish a new standard for players with zero major-league experience who already were under team control, according to major-league sources briefed on the discussions.

The six-year, $50 million contract that outfielder Luis Robert signed with the White Sox in Jan. 2020 currently is the largest such agreement. Chourio’s deal, which would be the culmination of months of on-and-off discussions, would be longer and guarantee him more money, sources said.

Chourio, a native of Maracaibo, Venezuela, does not turn 20 until March 11. But he is widely considered one of the two top prospects in the game, along with Orioles minor-league shortstop Jackson Holliday. If he agrees to a deal, it would remove service time as a consideration for the Brewers in their decision on when to promote him, and likely ensure his place in their Opening Day lineup.

 

Hell yea.

[markedman5]

https://theathletic.com/5096998/2023/11/28/milwaukee-brewers-jackson-chourio-contract-talks/

[markedman5]

 

[DR28]

Wow!!!!!!!!!! Jackson our OD CF 2024?? If this happens, gotta imagine we're trading OF surplus for something.

[brewers888]

This should be at least a 10 yr deal if it happens and is exactly the type of bold move this team needs to make.

[MVP2110]

This would be awesome(and risky) but mainly awesome 

[markedman5]

You have to think this leak came from the Brewers or Chourio’s agent……who else would know?

[wiguy94]

This would be very exciting.

[MVP2110]

Diamondbacks signed Corbin Carroll to a deal this past year after Carroll had been in the majors for 22 days. 8 years 111 million, with a club option that would raise it to 9 years 134 million. I'm guessing that's a rough baseline for what a Chourio deal could look like

[MVP2110]

Sounds like Chourio isn't the 1st prospect we've tried this with 

 

[SF70]

Incredible news.

This is the player to build around. He’s ready now so this gives the team a good opportunity to get another 1st round pick in ‘25 and a superstar player  for hopefully a decade or more.

[wibadgers23]

Wow this has to be unprecedented - the fact that he hasn’t played a single MLB game yet and is getting an extension.

[Brewcrew82]

I was assuming it'd happen during the season, but nothing wrong with these talks occurring now. 

If an agreement is reached, would assume it all but locks him in as an OD starter. Brewers aren't going to be paying him to sit in the minor leagues. 

[owbc]

4 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

You have to think this leak came from the Brewers or Chourio’s agent……who else would know?

While I am excited about this potential, I hate that service time is mentioned as a reason for doing this. It makes me think that the leak is from Chourio's agent.

Just now, MVP2110 said:

Diamondbacks signed Corbin Carroll to a deal this past year after Carroll had been in the majors for 22 days. 8 years 111 million, with a club option that would raise it to 9 years 134 million. I'm guessing that's a rough baseline for what a Chourio deal could look like

It's tough to find a good comp. Carroll signed at age 22, Julio Rodriguez signed at 21. Chourio is slated to hit the bigs at just barely 20. 

Rodriguez benefited greatly from waiting a bit -- he's essentially signed to a lifetime contract that is likely to end up in the $300-400M range. 

It will be interesting to see how many years we are talking here -- I can't imagine the Brewers would sign a contract with the escalators needed to do a career contract, so we're probably talking about buying out one or two years of free agency for maybe a $150-200M pricetag. 

 

[jonescm128]

14 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Diamondbacks signed Corbin Carroll to a deal this past year after Carroll had been in the majors for 22 days. 8 years 111 million, with a club option that would raise it to 9 years 134 million. I'm guessing that's a rough baseline for what a Chourio deal could look like

I would be really surprised if the Brewers did this. I don't see them going that high. Chourio only had 21 ABs in AAA.

8 years $80M maybe?

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, owbc said:

While I am excited about this potential, I hate that service time is mentioned as a reason for doing this. It makes me think that the leak is from Chourio's agent.

It's tough to find a good comp. Carroll signed at age 22, Julio Rodriguez signed at 21. Chourio is slated to hit the bigs at just barely 20. 

Rodriguez benefited greatly from waiting a bit -- he's essentially signed to a lifetime contract that is likely to end up in the $300-400M range. 

It will be interesting to see how many years we are talking here -- I can't imagine the Brewers would sign a contract with the escalators needed to do a career contract, so we're probably talking about buying out one or two years of free agency for maybe a $150-200M pricetag. 

If Brewers are only buying 1-2 years of FA it won't cost anywhere near $150M to $200M

[owbc]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If Brewers are only buying 1-2 years of FA it won't cost anywhere near $150M to $200M

Yeah I agree on second thought -- but I still would be shocked to see Chourio sign for less than $150M. What's the point of risking hundreds of millions in earnings if you are not getting a huge guaranteed paycheck up front? 

[brewcrewdue80]

Get It Done!  10years. 150 sounds great to me.  Pay that man up front these 1st 5 years to keep that backend modest. Never have his salary exceed 20M in a season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Acuna was 21 when he inked his ~100 Million extension after playing in just 1 MLB season as a 20 yr old.  I think somewhere between that and Carrol's extension is likely what the Brewers are hoping for, both in terms of overall dollars and years.  

Having zero MLB time to this point is what makes things interesting, a potential 10 year deal that buys out 4 years of free agency with some variety of club and player/mutual options would lead to Chourio still being just 30 and in line for another massive contract...then again, unfortunate injuries or turning into a pumpkin at the MLB level could also happen and the Brewers would be on the hook for 9 plus figures.  Gotta think there would be some sort of club option about halfway through the contract that would kick in an initial set of escalators to pay Chourio more than what he'd earn in arbitration sooner, and then perhaps a player option towards the back year or two of a 10yr extension that could allow Chourio to opt out if his onfield production is grossly underpaid close to a decade from now.

[CheezWizHed]

51 minutes ago, DR28 said:

If this happens, gotta imagine we're trading OF surplus for something.

Maybe, but not a lock.  Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Yelich, Wiemer, and Taylor.  Wiemer could easily be at AAA per the end of last season.  Yelich could be DHing a lot.  Then you'd have 4 OFers - a 5th with Yelich. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Mitchell or TT be traded, but I don't see it as necessary either. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is a terrible idea.

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 minutes ago, owbc said:

Yeah I agree on second thought -- but I still would be shocked to see Chourio sign for less than $150M. What's the point of risking hundreds of millions in earnings if you are not getting a huge guaranteed paycheck up front? 

All it takes is one major injury, and that windfall of guaranteed, life-changing cash evaporates - especially if that injury happens before arbitration kicks in and you never reach your full potential...not to mention the fact that Chourio hasn't even set foot onto a MLB diamond (although I have very little concern of him being a bust assuming good health).  I think any sort of longterm contract at this stage should be buying out 3-4 years of his free agency, which should get that overall pricetag in the $175M range - with some sort of opt outs built in around years 6 (club option) and ~year 9 (player/mutual option) that allow for the contract to end early in the event of something catastrophically bad happening to Chourio or him being extremely underpaid towards the end of the deal.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

Yeah I agree on second thought -- but I still would be shocked to see Chourio sign for less than $150M. What's the point of risking hundreds of millions in earnings if you are not getting a huge guaranteed paycheck up front? 

If he signs 8 years for 110M or something like that he's really not risking that much money. He would still hit FA at 28 years old. Juan Soto is the most expensive ARB player ever and he's going to make around $83M before he hits FA. Let's say Chourio hits on all levels and would make $80M before hitting FA like Soto. A FA contract probably pays him around $35-40M AAV. Now if he doesn't extend the Brewers are likely going to manipulate service time to get the extra season before FA. So He would hit FA at 27 instead of 28. If he becomes a Soto level player you're probably talking $40M AAV so with no extension in his first 8 years being Soto level he would make around $80M in arb and $40M in his first year of FA. That's around $120M over 8 years. Nowhere near costing himself hundreds of millions.

[brewers888]

After this rumor leaking out it would be extremely disappointing if a deal doesn't get done.

[wibadgers23]

21 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

After this rumor leaking out it would be extremely disappointing if a deal doesn't get done.

Yeah I’m thinking they have to be really close to a deal for this to leak out.