Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[Fear The Chorizo]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Just for ONE tiny, split second, stop and wonder if it's not everyone else who "doesn't get it," but maybe you?

The Braves seem to "get it."

The Pads seemed to "get it," with Tatis."

The Mariners "got it," with Rodriguez. The latter two got it later than this, but they got it. 

Tatis, Jr signed that massive 14 yr, ~$350M contract when he was a mid 900s OPS offensive player as a 21 yr old - then he got injured and caught taking PEDs, missing all of 2022.  Then in 2023 he was magically an upper 700s OPS offensive player.  Still really good, but not the type of production teams would fall all over themselves handing out lifetime contracts to.

Guessing the Rays want takebacks on what's left of that Wander Franco contract at this point, too.

Even with can't-miss, young, star players, there are significant risks with issuing longterm extensions that don't have some sort of team-friendly out option baked in somewhere around when the player would originally reach free agency.  I'm hopeful any sort of Chourio deal would have something structured in it that voids significant longterm financial commitment in the event of off the field issues/incidents like PEDs, felonies/legal problems, significant injury incurred with non-baseball activities, etc.

[mudbutt]

The Franco and Tatis deals are way bigger than what Chourio is rumored to get so not worried about it, assuming it truly is around 8 years and 80-90 million that the Journal Sentinel is reporting it to be around.

[BigFickEnergy]

I don't think it is a coincidence this is all coming out and Jackson was traveling yesterday. I'd expect to hear something later today about the deal being finalized. 

[monty57]

12 hours ago, JefferyLeonard said:

That figures, why am I not surprised the Brewers still don't "get it"? You have plenty of time to not only control Churio, but to give him an extension. If Mark A is going to be shelling out piles of money for a long period of time, then for god sakes use it on a Free agent. No need to use it on Churio right now. Here's the part they don't seem to "get". You can shell out piles of money and get a stud FA bat AND still have Churio. It's not like he's leaving anytime soon. 

It's about paying under market value. Free agents by nature are paid market value. The structure of the pre-arby/arby system allows teams to get players under market value. Doing extensions early gives certainty to the players, and for that they accept less than they would otherwise expect to get through their pre-arby/arby/free agency years. 

Smaller revenue teams can never hope to compete by getting their stars through free agency. They need to get their core players their farm or by trading for young, cost-controlled players. Free agency should only be used to fill in the gaps, and generally only be for one or two year deals. This also applies to offering extensions late in the "control years," like they did with Yelich. Once the player is already set for life, and close to free agency, they no longer have to accept a significant discount for the guarantee, so later-term extensions are basically free agent deals. Again, small revenue teams can't afford to build like this.

I hope they get the Chourio deal done, but only if it buys out some free agency years. Then, I hope they are able to work out some extensions with some of the other pre-arby guys like Contreras, Mitchell, Frelick, etc. That will lock up a nice core for the foreseeable future, they can trade Burnes for more young talent, and they can fill in the holes with a couple of free agent signings.

[edfunderburk]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I imagine Yelich will still get thrown out in LF for another year, but it'd really make more sense to try and DH him or play him at 1B in camp, see if he can still play there at a high enough level.

I want to see Yelich as a DH or 1B … ASAP!

[edfunderburk]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Please stop with the Hiura stuff. He's not part of the organization. 

Amen … Agree … PLEASE stop referencing Huira or comparing him to Chourio

[Underachiever]

17 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is a terrible idea.

Get him, boys.

  

[monty57]

12 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Easy to say. Just like it's easy for me to say there are many scenarios that derail those good feelings in a real hurry that don't even include him just not performing up to expectations.

You're going to try to scare me with we get a legit superstar for 6 years and get sad if he leaves for more money? Deal, I'll take it. Where do I sign up for exactly that? It's ridiculous to suggest if this doesn't happen we're losing out on something.

Why can't they sign him after year one in the bigs, or year two, etc. They HAVE to sign him now? No, they really don't.

Think of it like insurance and transferring risk. The longer you wait, the more expensive it gets. The Brewers should only do long-term extensions to pre-arby guys (or in this case minor leaguers) if they get a significant discount to what the player should be expected to receive by going year-to-year. Think of the discount as the premium the player pays in order to get the "insurance" of a guaranteed contract. If there is no discount, then the team should just go year-to-year.

Many players will not accept taking this discount, but some will forego some future earnings for the large guarantee. The ones who accept it will be part of the core longer, while the ones who don't accept it will be traded sooner. The Brewers' current example is that Burnes needs to be traded now, while Peralta (who accepted an early extension) will still be a Brewer. One could argue that Peralta loses out vs. Burnes, but then we look at Woodruff, who might be wishing that he had signed for more guaranteed money a few years ago.

There is risk to any move a team makes. I like extending pre-abry guys to long-term, discounted deals. I dislike extending guys who have limited team control remaining, as these are basically expensive free agent deals. The former allows the team to get players for a discount, while the latter does not. 

I guess it just comes down to what type of risk the team is comfortable with, and what it costs.

[CheezWizHed]

2 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Think of it like insurance and transferring risk. The longer you wait, the more expensive it gets. The Brewers should only do long-term extensions to pre-arby guys (or in this case minor leaguers) if they get a significant discount to what the player should be expected to receive by going year-to-year. Think of the discount as the premium the player pays in order to get the "insurance" of a guaranteed contract. If there is no discount, then the team should just go year-to-year.

Many players will not accept taking this discount, but some will forego some future earnings for the large guarantee. The ones who accept it will be part of the core longer, while the ones who don't accept it will be traded sooner. The Brewers' current example is that Burnes needs to be traded now, while Peralta (who accepted an early extension) will still be a Brewer. One could argue that Peralta loses out vs. Burnes, but then we look at Woodruff, who might be wishing that he had signed for more guaranteed money a few years ago.

There is risk to any move a team makes. I like extending pre-abry guys to long-term, discounted deals. I dislike extending guys who have limited team control remaining, as these are basically expensive free agent deals. The former allows the team to get players for a discount, while the latter does not. 

I guess it just comes down to what type of risk the team is comfortable with, and what it costs.

+1. 

For all the "Brewers don't get it" comments... it is about risk.  Clearly it is a gamble to do this, but there is a reason Chourio is getting this deal and Huira, Frelick, MItchell, Burnes, etc... did not.  The Brewers see him as a generational talent and want to keep him in the organization a long time.  Think of him as this generation's Robin Yount. 

Yes, the deal might also blow up in their face.  But without the deep pockets you have to be a bit of a gambler. Peralta's contract has worked out very well for us.  Yelich's (2nd)... not so much. 

But given Mark A's legacy of success as a Brewer's owner (yes, some of you have forgotten what the 90s were like), I think this is going to be a good idea.  Chourio's floor is frankly pretty high.  At worst, he is going to be a strong defensive CF with "acceptable' offense for CF.  

[Underachiever]

And maybe I can get a jersey that won't be out of date almost immediately. 

Anyone want a Luke Voit home jersey? Never worn, comes already unbuttoned. I'll throw in a gold chain.

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Tatis, Jr signed that massive 14 yr, ~$350M contract when he was a mid 900s OPS offensive player as a 21 yr old - then he got injured and caught taking PEDs, missing all of 2022.  Then in 2023 he was magically an upper 700s OPS offensive player.  Still really good, but not the type of production teams would fall all over themselves handing out lifetime contracts to.

Guessing the Rays want takebacks on what's left of that Wander Franco contract at this point, too.

Even with can't-miss, young, star players, there are significant risks with issuing longterm extensions that don't have some sort of team-friendly out option baked in somewhere around when the player would originally reach free agency.  I'm hopeful any sort of Chourio deal would have something structured in it that voids significant longterm financial commitment in the event of off the field issues/incidents like PEDs, felonies/legal problems, significant injury incurred with non-baseball activities, etc.

This logic doesn't seem to work around here. And it's not like you or I are saying any of it is likely to happen but there's a reason the risk goes both ways. From a player's perspective if there were no risk they would ALWAYS choose to go year to year in arby and reach free agency asap. And from a team's perspective this wouldn't be only the 6th time in MLB history a contract like this gets done.

It feels stupid for me to have to say that I want Jackson Chourio to be an uber star and stay with Milwaukee for his entire Hall of Fame career but having a contrary opinion about an early buyout contract immediately strikes people as me not understanding what the ramifications are for the good. Of course I see the potential for it to be great, I just see the opposite side and expressed a preference to take the 6 sure seasons one at a time rather than gamble a bunch of up front money for the chance to buy out 2 extra seasons. That money is gone the minute the pen hits the paper and all you have left is hope that things don't go bad.

Either way this goes I'm going to be hyped about Chourio being a  member of the Milwaukee Brewers the minute he gets promoted to the bigs.

[CheezWizHed]

24 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

This logic doesn't seem to work around here. And it's not like you or I are saying any of it is likely to happen but there's a reason the risk goes both ways. From a player's perspective if there were no risk they would ALWAYS choose to go year to year in arby and reach free agency asap. And from a team's perspective this wouldn't be only the 6th time in MLB history a contract like this gets done.

It feels stupid for me to have to say that I want Jackson Chourio to be an uber star and stay with Milwaukee for his entire Hall of Fame career but having a contrary opinion about an early buyout contract immediately strikes people as me not understanding what the ramifications are for the good. Of course I see the potential for it to be great, I just see the opposite side and expressed a preference to take the 6 sure seasons one at a time rather than gamble a bunch of up front money for the chance to buy out 2 extra seasons. That money is gone the minute the pen hits the paper and all you have left is hope that things don't go bad.

Either way this goes I'm going to be hyped about Chourio being a  member of the Milwaukee Brewers the minute he gets promoted to the bigs.

I think the fact that these contracts are rarely issued and the fact that the Brewers are not deep-pocket spenders makes this more exciting that they are doing it.  

Freddy Peralta's contract (though a slightly different situation) has worked out well.  

[DR28]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

And maybe I can get a jersey that won't be out of date almost immediately. 

Anyone want a Luke Voit home jersey? Never worn, comes already unbuttoned. I'll throw in a gold chain.

As soon as Jackson signs, I'm getting a shirsey.

[Outlander]

Will have to wait for the final details but at the very least would be nice not to have to worry about service time manipulation with Chourio. Being small market Milwaukee there is certainly risk and that can't be ignored. However, if there are some option years that enables the Brewers to keep him in Milwaukee throughout his 20's then it is worth it in my opinion.

[Zad Fnark]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

And maybe I can get a jersey that won't be out of date almost immediately. 

Anyone want a Luke Voit home jersey? Never worn, comes already unbuttoned. I'll throw in a gold chain.

I still have my Jesus jersey...   Got it the year he was traded.

[Jimbo]

19 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

Sounds like Chourio isn't the 1st prospect we've tried this with 

 

Rickie Weeks, IIRC.  Wasn't he put on the 40-man immediately without options?

 

[SeaBass]

4 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think the fact that these contracts are rarely issued and the fact that the Brewers are not deep-pocket spenders makes this more exciting that they are doing it.  

Freddy Peralta's contract (though a slightly different situation) has worked out well.  

It's valid for you to believe that. Freddy's deal was for 5 years and $15.5 million. I don't think it's quite the same thing.

If the deal as speculated on in the Journal Sentinel is close it will be in the neighborhood of 8 years for $80+ million. The way I'm seeing it is paying $80+ million up front and hoping those 2 extra years become a true bargain. That's a fairly big gamble in my view. And yes I realize it's capping some of those arby years in there too, but the big selling point is the two extra years for me and I'm not sure that's ultimately worth the risk. That's not saying I don't think Chourio will be good or his talent and ability isn't worth it, it's simply a risk something doesn't go the team's way during those 8 years.

[SeaBass]

One big plus if they get this deal done is building up goodwill between the team and player. If Chourio pops for what everyone is hoping for there's a chance that relationship could help the two sides agree on a extension of his contract down the line. Avoiding the Corbin Burnes issues.

[wibadgers23]

 

[StearnsFTW]

8/80 is a no-brainer imo.  There's risk, but it's not huge.

 

Personally, I'd love to see a 10/120 type deal.  The risk is bigger but so is the reward.

 

[Playing Catch]

I'm on the fence with this decision. I agree with those that don't like doing a deal like this for a player with no MLB experience. It makes me kind of nervous. With that said, I would be pretty excited to start the year with Chourio on the roster, and if he ends up being even an average player, I'll be excited to have him locked up for years. Of course if he ends up being an all-star, this will end up being a great decision.

[DR28]

If this deal gets done.... I don't see us trading Burnes then.

We'll go out with Chourio, Contreras, Yelich lead offense and hope top of rotation with Burnes and Peralta along with nasty bullpen is enough to win the Central and do some damage in October.

[DR28]

Also curious where Murph is gonna bat Jackson?? Yelich, Chourio, Contreras top of lineup?? Definitely like that.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, SeaBass said:

This logic doesn't seem to work around here. And it's not like you or I are saying any of it is likely to happen but there's a reason the risk goes both ways. From a player's perspective if there were no risk they would ALWAYS choose to go year to year in arby and reach free agency asap. And from a team's perspective this wouldn't be only the 6th time in MLB history a contract like this gets done.

It feels stupid for me to have to say that I want Jackson Chourio to be an uber star and stay with Milwaukee for his entire Hall of Fame career but having a contrary opinion about an early buyout contract immediately strikes people as me not understanding what the ramifications are for the good. Of course I see the potential for it to be great, I just see the opposite side and expressed a preference to take the 6 sure seasons one at a time rather than gamble a bunch of up front money for the chance to buy out 2 extra seasons. That money is gone the minute the pen hits the paper and all you have left is hope that things don't go bad.

Either way this goes I'm going to be hyped about Chourio being a  member of the Milwaukee Brewers the minute he gets promoted to the bigs.

That a perfectly fair take.

Every move a team or player makes has risks. For a small revenue team like the Brewers, I personally prefer the risk associated with signing early extensions to player who will sign them, as it gives the team the chance to get them at a discounted rate. Of course some will not work out, but I think their success will be better building their core around this strategy than it would be trying to build around free agency or extensions to players who are a year or so away from free agency.

Because of that, I'm excited to see this news (disclaimer that I don't know the numbers they're talking, and I may not be excited when I see them). I also hope that this leads some of the other good, young players to follow suit, and we can have a stable of good, young talent locked up for years to come.

[StearnsFTW]

17 minutes ago, DR28 said:

If this deal gets done.... I don't see us trading Burnes then.

We'll go out with Chourio, Contreras, Yelich lead offense and hope top of rotation with Burnes and Peralta along with nasty bullpen is enough to win the Central and do some damage in October.

I hope you're wrong.  Trading Burnes is priority #1 for me.