MLBTR's Possible Trade Partners for Corbin Burnes

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm taking this off MLB with an article explaining the players who declined the QO. In it, it wrote about what the players and then the QO reward for the teams and those players. Skipping all that the bottom tells you this explanation and it's something that I've mentioned affects Burnes value to different teams.  It's long so bear the read and I'll reply after to it.

Compensation for losing players who reject their QO

If a team gives a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for Draft pick compensation the following year.

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: If the team that loses the player is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

• All other teams: If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

Penalties for signing players who reject their QO

Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. However, a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture. (Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick.)

Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer:

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: A team that receives revenue-sharing money will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest pick.

• All other teams: If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick and an additional $500,000.

These are classifications for each team that will determine the Draft picks they receive (for a departing QO player) or forfeit (for signing a QO player).

Competitive Balance Tax payors: Blue Jays, Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Yankees

Revenue-sharing recipients: Athletics, Brewers, D-backs, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

All other clubs: Angels, Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Red Sox, White Sox

[brewcrewdue80]

The difference here is for Milwaukee. Burnes is a pick immediately after the 1st round.  

For the Dodgers that pick is after the 4th round.

 

Quick look at 2023 (24 tbd)Draft and values that would mean-

Brewers-#30 2,732,500

Dodgers- #132-137 were actual comps for these teams- 492,700-469,000.

That is shy of 2.3M difference which is the 38th pick in comp balance A value.   Vs near 100 picks later value.

 

Which team in the trade gets Burnes future QO value?  Are the Brewers docked 2.3 million value?  Or Do the Dodgers need to step up their trade offer 2.3M value? So now that answer splits up the value amongst the different level of teams the club is talking too.

 

Comp A teams. Comp B teams. 

We'd want to be speaking to Comp A teams like Orioles or Diamondbacks. 

And not the teams getting 4th rd comps.

Fwiw, history for 30th selections aren't good with Adam Ottavino being the only 10+WAR since 2001 draft.

132-has 2 (Paxton&Christian Walker)

133-0

134- 1(Kluber)

135-3 (Kipnis, Rosario, Clevenger)

136-0

137-0

 

 

 

 

[wibadgers23]

 

[Madhawk23]

9 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

 

I'm not familiar with the MLB Scoops account on Twitter/X.  Is this a legit source?  Seems like other big name MLB journalists would be reporting this as well if it was actually happening, no?

[jonescm128]

4 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

I'm not familiar with the MLB Scoops account on Twitter/X.  Is this a legit source?  Seems like other big name MLB journalists would be reporting this as well if it was actually happening, no?

With only 6,000 followers I am going to go with BS on this one. 

[Madhawk23]

8 minutes ago, jonescm128 said:

With only 6,000 followers I am going to go with BS on this one. 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well.  

But, since we have nothing else to talk about with Brewers Hot Stove right now - what would it take in terms of prospects from the Red Sox to get a deal done?  I think we've hashed out several O's scenarios in various threads here, but not sure how much we've talked about the Red Sox and what a realistic package would look like?  

[bensheeps]

21 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well.  

But, since we have nothing else to talk about with Brewers Hot Stove right now - what would it take in terms of prospects from the Red Sox to get a deal done?  I think we've hashed out several O's scenarios in various threads here, but not sure how much we've talked about the Red Sox and what a realistic package would look like?  

Was wondering the same thing as I could see Boston try to make a splash with a Burnes trade.

Would it have to be quantity over quality type return? 

Assuming they wouldn't deal their top prospect, SS Mayer (#11 in the top 100) but maybe headlined by the second best, 19-yr old OF, Roman Anthony (listed at #35, just one spot ahead of Misiorowski).

Top pitching prospect is Wikelman Gonzalez, number nine in their top 30.  A 21-year-old RHP with a big league ETA of 2025. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Looked into this source and they actually were the first to be on Martin Perez signing with the Pirates. Maybe dumb luck, but maybe they know something. Anyway it is fun to speculate on the return whenever specific teams get named. 

[Madhawk23]

1 minute ago, bensheeps said:

Was wondering the same thing as I could see Boston try to make a splash with a Burnes trade.

Would it have to be quantity over quality type return? 

Assuming they wouldn't deal their top prospect, SS Mayer (#11 in the top 100) but maybe headlined by the second best, 19-yr old OF, Roman Anthony (listed at #35, just one spot ahead of Misiorowski).

Top pitching prospect is Wikelman Gonzalez, number nine in their top 30.  A 21-year-old RHP with a big league ETA of 2025. 

I just don't think we can take an OF back as the centerpiece of any Burnes trade?  Ideally, the centerpiece would be a SP.  Unless of course we are dealing with the O's - in which case I would want 1B/3B Mayo coming back as the main piece.  But, we've already got too many OF's at the upper levels of our organization, and we need to capitalize on this Burnes trade to bring back 1-2 really good pieces at positions of need.  

[Madhawk23]

I'm assuming that there is very little chance that the Red Sox would include Brayan Bello in a deal, right?  And, even if they did - I'm guessing it would have to be a close to a 1 for 1 type deal, and I don't love that for the Brewers either.  

Marcelo Mayer I'd obviously put in that same boat with Bello.  Doubtful that we could get him in a Burnes deal.  I also don't love the fact that he struggled so mightily when he got bumped up to AA this past season.  I know it's a small sample size, but that's at least somewhat concerning to me.  

I'm not in love with this return package, but if Arnold and Co. thought that Rafaela could be a starting SS in the big leagues, maybe you could trade Burnes to the Sox for Ceddane Rafaela, Kutter Crawford and Yoeilin Cespedes (as more of a lotto ticket).  For the record, I don't love this package though, and I guess I'd hope that we could maybe get something better from another team.  

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

 

You do have Orioles also involved notation. Does that indicate a 3 team trade? Not a defensive trade keeping Bos from acquiring Burnes?  Someone financial on Bostons side the Orioles want that offsets the cost for Burnes the Brewers wouldn't do.  Meanwhile added returns to both sides Bal-Milw. 

 

Ok nevermind on that thought. No chance Bos has a contract the Os would take.

[nate82]

9 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Which team in the trade gets Burnes future QO value?  Are the Brewers docked 2.3 million value?  Or Do the Dodgers need to step up their trade offer 2.3M value? So now that answer splits up the value amongst the different level of teams the club is talking too.

The Brewers get the value.  The QO value is owned by the Brewers and is already added into Burnes value.

When you are calculating Burnes trade value the QO offer is Burnes minimum value to the Brewers.  Add that compensation to Burnes value without that and you get about $30mm in excess value.  So $2mm from the compensation from the Brewers holding onto Burnes and getting the draft pick plus his value of $28mm.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I doubt Roman Anthony, Teel, or Mayer are on the table for a rental. What about a package of these guys? A couple lotto tickets with the centerpiece being Bleis.  We also drafted Mata who has since had his health issues but he still has a pretty good fastball. Profiles more as a RP. Admittedly I don't know too much about their system outside of the top guys. 

Luis Perales	SP
Bryan Mata	SP
Miguel Bleis	OF
Yoeilin Cespedes	SS

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I doubt Roman Anthony, Teel, or Mayer are on the table for a rental. What about a package of these guys? A couple lotto tickets with the centerpiece being Bleis.  We also drafted Mata who has since had his health issues but he still has a pretty good fastball. Profiles more as a RP. Admittedly I don't know too much about their system outside of the top guys. 

Luis Perales	SP
Bryan Mata	SP
Miguel Bleis	OF
Yoeilin Cespedes	SS

The Red Sox just don't line up with the Brewers all that well for a trade for Burnes. 

[Scooterfletcher]

Mayer Gonzalez and Fitts for Burnes and Adames is what I’d need.  

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Mayer Gonzalez and Fitts for Burnes and Adames is what I’d need.  

The Red Sox wouldn’t have any interest in Adames.  You would have to take Story back in that trade along with Mayer not being in the trade.  The Red Sox would have 0 interest in including Mayer in a Burnes and Adames trade.

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The Red Sox wouldn’t have any interest in Adames.  You would have to take Story back in that trade along with Mayer not being in the trade.  The Red Sox would have 0 interest in including Mayer in a Burnes and Adames trade.

Huh? If we're taking Story back for Burnes and Adames, we'd better be getting Mayer or Anthony back....

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Huh? If we're taking Story back for Burnes and Adames, we'd better be getting Mayer or Anthony back....

That is why it wouldn't happen.  You won't be getting Mayer and you would have to take on a bad contract like Story.  This is why the Red Sox are a bad fit.  They just don't have the prospects they would be willing to give up for a Burnes trade and they wouldn't have any interest in a Burnes and Adames trade.  You would have to take Story back in that deal and also be ok with not getting Mayer. 

The Red Sox are just a bad fit all around for the Brewers.  You either take junk back for a Burnes and Adames trade or you just avoid the situation since you know there is no match. 

[brewcrewdue80]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

The Brewers get the value.  The QO value is owned by the Brewers and is already added into Burnes value.

When you are calculating Burnes trade value the QO offer is Burnes minimum value to the Brewers.  Add that compensation to Burnes value without that and you get about $30mm in excess value.  So $2mm from the compensation from the Brewers holding onto Burnes and getting the draft pick plus his value of $28mm.

That's what I would assume, but you read opposing team fans and what they would offer and it generally feels like the QO value is completely ignored. 2.7M is certainly something imo that can be maneuvered to draft a higher rated prospect who falls from a pick like 7-14 to a spot in the 20s where Milw has drafted and use a lot on getting a top 10-ish quality prospect. Far more likely to make the majors over a player as I shown drafted 30+ overall.

 

So the next question is arbitration. I've mentioned this as a factor in Burnes value.  BRef/MLBTR you see Burnes expected to get 15.1M in the end.  So that is the figure for "agreed upon guess.  Let's guess Burnes side asks for 16.3-17.0M while Brewers side asks for 14-14.3M.  Tbd in late January the asking.  They don't settle again.  That's  a 2+Mil gap that if a trade is made brings up what value do you add or take away?  Do we jist assume Burnes value remains 15.1M on a guess?  Burnes lost 700k last year and the 50pct gain 15.1 from 10.1 had he won is, 16.2M(add 700k is 16.9 makeup when asking)  

Burnes was much more successful pitching to Caratini vs to Contreras where his Fip hovers near 3 vs over 4+ I believe.  (The argument against another late season let down leading to another loss vs winning arb)

 

All that tells me a reason that Burnes remains on the Brewers for 2024, until they have settled or went through Arb's decision.   Draft pick losses when other QO players sign. Teams like to double down on a 2nd loss, since it is just 1 later round pick after initial 2.  

[jay87shot]

Mayer would be perfect, I bet we could add in a reliever to get Mayer. I like Ceddeanne Rafaela, he would be good as a 2B but it sounds like he is most valuable at CF.

If we had to take back Story the Sox would need to take Yeli. I doubt Yeli would want to go to the Red Sox but the Red Sox could use an OF, if they think Yeli or Yoshida would be good in RF then a bigger trade would work (I would prefer Sale over Story).

Burnes and Payamps for Mayer, Blaze Jordan (move to 1st), and P Tanner Houck and/or Garrett Whitlock. Mayer has the superstar potential but wasn't very good in AA, Jordan has improved every year and could be a high end 1B (below average at 3rd), since the Sox don't have great young pitching we go for Houck or Whitlock who both have good stuff but weren't great last year but very solid in 21 and 22. Our pitching team could easily fix either or both.

[Playing Catch]

My first thought was also skepticism of the source. But since I'm here...

Boston has been laying in the weeds a couple of seasons now. They are EXACTLY the type of team that needs to get involved to create a feeding frenzy. And while I can't speak to the current regime's status/reputation, the club has a history of doing big things.

[Matt]

Rosenthal sure makes it sounds like Burnes is likely here, at least up to the trade deadline. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’m hearing interesting scuttlebutt. The Brewers are definitely talking on Burnes but nothing concrete to report beyond that. 

[Jastro]

39 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I’m hearing interesting scuttlebutt. The Brewers are definitely talking on Burnes but nothing concrete to report beyond that. 

Makes sense, as I think concrete talks won't happen until Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, and Stroman signs. When contenders are left empty handed and have their feet to the fire to bring in a TOR piece.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, Jastro said:

Makes sense, as I think concrete talks won't happen until Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery, and Stroman signs. When contenders are left empty handed and have their feet to the fire to bring in a TOR piece.

I know specific pieces are being talked about but the general vibe I’m hearing is that no one is close yet. As you said, I think this remains in limbo until 2024 unless someone gets really motivated about it.