Projecting the Brewers' 2024 Opening Day Roster, v 1.0

[Matthew Trueblood]

Though they have several more questions to answer, the Brewers are closer to being ready for the 2024 season than many of their rivals. Let's project the Opening Day roster at this moment, to spot the points where uncertainty remains.

Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Obviously, there will still be significant changes to the Brewers roster between now and late March. We don't yet know whether Matt Arnold and his staff will elect to trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames, and either move could beget a huge cascade of other changes. For the moment, though, let's assume no further subtractions or additions, to see what the roster could look like with only the existing, internal options.

Starting Lineup

1. Christian Yelich, LF
2. William Contreras, C
3. Sal Frelick, RF
4. Willy Adames, SS
5. Jackson Chourio, CF
6. Jake Bauers, 1B
7. Tyrone Taylor, DH
8. Brice Turang, 2B
9. Andruw Monasterio, 3B

Guessing the Opening Day batting order is obviously folly, but this gives us a good anchor. Yelich is, at this point, the clear and established leadoff hitter, and there's little reason to consider moving him out of that spot. Notably, Monasterio is manning the hot corner in this formulation, but there's some version of spring training in which Tyler Black forces his way past Monasterio and into the lineup. Black is the one player who could compel the team to move Yelich back down into one of the power positions in the lineup, but given his ground-ball rate, that would still be a less-than-ideal solution. 

The glaring, blinking segment of the lineup begging to be upgraded is Taylor and Bauers at designated hitter and first base, respectively. Platoons could keep each away from bad matchups most of the time, but the need for a reliable middle-of-the-order hitter at one of those bat-first positions is pretty stark.

Bench

• Jeferson Quero, C
• Oliver Dunn, IF
• Jahmai Jones, UTIL
• Garrett Mitchell, OF

Quero's 90 games at Double-A Biloxi in 2023 are his only experience above High A, and I deeply doubt that the Brewers want him on the roster come Opening Day. At the moment, however, they have no credible alternative. Signing a backup catcher remains high on the offseason to-do list, but it will need to be done cheaply. 

Depending on their respective Cactus League showings, it's not at all inconceivable that Dunn could be the starting second baseman, with Turang on the bench. Either way, Dunn's left-handed bat will provide depth on the infield and a pinch-hitting option when Taylor starts at DH and a tough righty comes on. Jones gets the nod here over Owen Miller, because Miller can be optioned without being exposed to waivers, whereas Jones can't. Mitchell makes it over Joey Wiemer and Blake Perkins because of his superior mix of power, defensive tools, plate discipline, and fit for the outfield mix from a handedness perspective.

Starting Rotation

• Corbin Burnes
• Freddy Peralta
• Wade Miley
• Adrian Houser
• Colin Rea

One of the key questions the spring will help us answer is whether or not the Brewers will revert to a six-man rotation. It's still not quite the norm, league-wide, but the six-man group is becoming increasingly popular, and the Crew have had trouble keeping starters healthy when using only five in rotation over recent seasons. Still, in this projection, we stick to five, figuring that Pat Murphy's old-school essence will win out in the battle with new-age thinking. 

Burnes is the elephant in the room, of course. If he's traded, a healthy Aaron Ashby is a candidate to claim the extra spot, but so is fellow southpaw Robert Gasser, about whose profile I wrote not long ago.

Bullpen

• Devin Williams
• Joel Payamps
• Trevor Megill
• Hoby Milner
• Abner Uribe
• Bryse Wilson
• Joe Ross
• Robert Gasser

Many of these choices will be shaped by the simple test of whether a given pitcher has minor-league options. Wilson and Ross have to be waived in order to be sent to the minors; Elvis Peguero and Taylor Clarke do not. The surprising name here might be Gasser, who would give the relief corps a second lefty and third long man. If the team does stick to five starters, they might want that length and flexibility out of the pen, especially early in the season. As we've discussed in the past, too, Gasser's arm slot and arsenal make him a tough matchup for lefty batters.

What do you think of this projection? Who are the players you most fervently hope to see added or subtracted between now and spring training? Fire up the conversation.

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[Outlander]

It doesn't make much sense to project Gasser as a bullpen guy to start the year when they have Elvis and limited SP depth.

Just project random minor league catcher as a backup, it certainly won't be Quero.

Jones has a better chance of a DFA than an opening day spot, Perkins or Miller there. At least he will always have that hit against the Cubs.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

Quote

Quero's 90 games at Double-A Biloxi in 2023 are his only experience above High A, and I deeply doubt that the Brewers want him on the roster come Opening Day. At the moment, however, they have no credible alternative.

Thanks for getting this out there. Fun exercise.

For the umpteenth time on this here website we all love:

C Brian Navarreto has more than earned an opportunity to get a crack at an MLB back-up position.

Defense, above and beyond, is a major strong suit. Great pop. Plus arm. Throws out runners at an International League leading clip regularly. Despite pedestrian numbers at the plate, he is actually extremely clutch in crucial scenarios. 

There is zero need, and I mean zero, to speed rush Quero. He's dealt with injuries in each season so far. Let him build more confidence and consistency at the dish. Let him test Triple-A waters. 
 

If it isn't Navs for whatever reason, sign another Vet back-up.

Also, I know this is a thought exercise, but no Tyler Black in this rendition is pretty laughable. Just no. 7 days a week.

[wibadgers23]

No reason to not have Mitchell and Black in that lineup.

1. Frelick, LF

2. Contreras, C

3. Yelich, DH

4. Adames, SS

5. Bauers, 1B (gross)

6. Chourio, RF

7. Mitchell, CF

8. Black, 3B

9. Turang, 2B

[Joseph Zarr]

I am entirely amenable to line-up shenanigans at this juncture toying with either Brock Wilken at 3B and Black at 1B or Black at 3B and Wes Clarke at 1B.

In no scenario am I in any way shape or form committed to a Bauer in the opening day starting line-up (it could happen, sure, and I'll hope for the best if it does) or a Jones on the bench as a reserve OF'er. 

[RedStickBrew]

45 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I am entirely amenable to line-up shenanigans at this juncture toying with either Brock Wilken at 3B and Black at 1B or Black at 3B and Wes Clarke at 1B.

[SRB]

Dear god lol 🤣

I usually try to stay optimistic but they just need to trade Burnes and Adames for as much as they can get and start focusing on 2025.

[jay87shot]

LF Yelich, CF Chourio. RF Weimer, DH Taylor, 1B Mitchell, 2B Frelick, 3B Perkins, SS Roller, C Contreras

Almost a full lineup of outfielders to go with the 16 or so relievers.

[Frisbee Slider]

Mitchell should not be on the MLB bench for Opening Day. Maybe against a lefty but still…

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

LF Yelich, CF Chourio. RF Weimer, DH Taylor, 1B Mitchell, 2B Frelick, 3B Perkins, SS Roller, C Contreras

Almost a full lineup of outfielders to go with the 16 or so relievers.

Let's move Chourio back to SS. Yelich goes to 3B(he played 1B, how hard can 3rd be). Let's call Lara back up there...he's young, and he slides over to RF and Wiemer, he's a bigger guy, big arm. We can teach guys how to catch. Dump Contreras and let's start Joey at C!

 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Mitchell should not be on the MLB bench for Opening Day. Maybe against a lefty but still…

I think we just let camp play out. I can easily envision a scenario in which Mitchell is hitting 3rd on opening day or starting in AAA.

We have a whole spring and I think the only one who's guaranteed a spot as of now...among the young OFers...is Chourio. And even he could easily end up spending some time in AAA if he struggled. Not much, but some.

Mitchell has ~140 career ABs. When he was called up, people were clamoring for Frelick. He's not really proven anything as a hitter and defensively, the gap isn't big enough to say you just have to have Mitchell in the lineup. 

I really like Wiemer. I hope he has a great ST'ing and earns the RF job.

IF you meant it'd be a waste to have him as a 4th OFer, that I'd agree with. We have Taylor and Perkins, so if Wiemer or Mitchell struggles, then they can work in AAA, I'd agree with that. If they're on the 26-man, they should be starting at this point.

 

[Deacon Blue]

I can't shake the feeling that they will be bring back Santana. So..........

VS RHP  Frelick (LF) Yelich (DH) Contreras (C) Santana (1st) Adames (SS) Mitchell (RF) Churio (CF) Black (3rd) Turang (2nd) 

VS LHP   Yelich (LF) Contreras (DH) Santana (1st) Adames (SS) Churio (CF) Miller (2nd) Wiemer or Taylor (RF)   Back Up Catcher    Montassario (3rd)

 

[monty57]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:01 AM, Joseph Zarr said:

Also, I know this is a thought exercise, but no Tyler Black in this rendition is pretty laughable. Just no. 7 days a week.

This is an opening day roster. I am excited to see Black on the MLB roster, and think he will be the starter after he gets past the "service time issues" deadline, but I think he'll start the season at AAA to gain that extra year of service. 

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

This is an opening day roster. I am excited to see Black on the MLB roster, and think he will be the starter after he gets past the "service time issues" deadline, but I think he'll start the season at AAA to gain that extra year of service. 

This is an opening day roster. And, I understand your proposition here but I disagree with your take wholeheartedly.😅

 

[Doug B]

Yelich needs to move to 1B. His massive contract means you need something more than DH and his arm is terrible. If they really plan Jake Bauer at 1B it means they have no hope of winning the Division and are eliminated on opening day.