Taylor, Houser to NYM

[BrewerFan]

50 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You also have to look at who we have to replace those guys, though.

Steamer projects Chourio and Gasser to outproduce Taylor and Houser for this season. 

I understand that, but as I said, you have Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick who are lefties and Perkins who was BRUTAL vs lefties. Taylor would and should have gotten ABs in '24(again, if he were on the roster).

RHed bats have been a weakness. And with respect, I don't really care about Steamer(I know it's a valuable resource but with rookies?). But you have a LOT of innings to cover. 

Gasser could have pitched WITH Houser in the same rotation or as long men. It was never an either or.

I'm fine with the idea of planning more for the future or just trading these players, but again, trashing them(not saying YOU are) or saying they had no value to the team....seems silly. I'm also not excited about a young soft tosser who's undergoing TJ.

For as much as you want to say the Brewers produce pitchers, Stearns has been largely responsible for that. So he thought enough of Houser and apparently not a ton of Crow.

[BrewerFan]

52 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Joey Wiemer, Owen Miller, Blake Perkins

All capable 4th OFers in the system now. 

Should start in AAA, clearly more of an IFer and I just went through this. sub .200 BA, well under .300 OBP and a .603 OPS vs LHed pitching.

We've long struggled with lefties. This exacerbates that issue.

But I'm with @wiguy94. If this is a sign we're looking toward 2025, fine. Makes sense. If we're trying to compete next year, it makes little sense. 

[Rock hard Brouhard]

Maybe I’m wrong but it would seem Devin Williams is the last man standing from the Doug Melvin era after todays trade.

[BrewerFan]

48 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

All 3 guys mocked the second half of last season on here and Miller/PErkins are more the AAAA level guys.   Wiemer as of now should be nowhere near an MLB plate.   I do agree for depth guys they're fine or whatever, we've certainly had much worse in those spots.  But Taylor is better, he was their 2nd best OFer last year.      Again, no big deal as its a marginal move but just casting these guys off like they're complete bums and that it doesn't make the team this year worse, as someone else just said seems a bit disingenuous.   Going full rebuild, playing the young guys, etc is all fine by me, but we don't have to act like these guys are bad to do so. 

And with Houser, people keep saying Gasser replaces but that misses then who replaces Gasser on the chain and so on and so on.   Again, last year and he's just ok but whoever moves up from our #8 to the #7 type role is likely worse or less reliable than him.   Guys like Houser are very useful in MLB as you can see by how much money they've been getting in these ridiculous contracts. 

Exactly. 

I don't hate this trade, but you nailed it perfectly. 

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

It is a bad trade because we got nothing for them. Both guys should have had more value then the guy w got.

Crow was a 28th round pick who only averages 90 mph on his fastball and underwent Tommy John in August after only pitching 4 games all last year. My guess is that odds that he never pitches in our organization are better than him being a rotation piece in the future.

Houser as a 4th starter at 5 million should at least gotten a top 20 prospect and 3 years of a high quality 4th OF should be similar.

28th rd pick that was a HS arm paid overslot and signed away from College.  I dunno where  he was projected coming in to draft, I read on mlb writeup he was 91, touching 94 before TJ. 

Digging in to archives- About 380k to sign is equivalent 5th rd value in 2019.

Perfect game rated him about 225 SP that class with 89-90 being 93rd FB percentile.

I misread his 2022 season innings pitched totals. He right there at 128IP, higher actually than any of the Golden Dodgers SP.  So back end of rotation isn't a pipe-dream upon returning to pitching.

 

There's this too

https://pikecountygeorgia.com/coleman-crow-is-southern-league-pitcher-of-week-month/

 

that's quite the stretch he was on.  It shouldnt be surprising as he added innings to his season, (maybe innings per start/seeing batters 2-3 times) that his numbers worsened.  

Mlb pipeline writeup mentions he could pitch from non-fastball reliance from his other pitches.  So he must have higher command of secondary pitches.

Point here in the rant, the Brewers didn't add a lotto ticket. They have someone who will be playing on their ML team down the road.(unless traded)  How's the staff look come 2026 mid-season?  Think a back end guy would be welcome.

 

As to losing Taylor/Houser.

I think a ptbnl needed as mentioned. You gave 2 potential above replacement players in 2024 and won't see any return for doing that til 2026.  Now, sure you can go spend the money you just saved but it's the amount towards a 1+WAR replacement level salary.  Sounds a little bit like Santana spending and 1b security.  It will sit better if the spending turns in to a 10+M player where needed that brings an expectation higher than replacement level.  You gained 2 40man spots, go get a FA and look greater by doing it all because of this trade.

[BrewerFan]

39 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I'm speaking from the perspective of the more important part of playing baseball...being able to hit major league pitching.

Ok, well, that's not what you said...you said;

Quote

Cam Devanney is a guy we see all over the minors that just never cuts it in the bigs. The Mariners have a better version of him just wasting away in Jake Scheiner (power with no real standout tools elsewhere). 

His defense is his carrying tool.

 

As for how he'll hit, you're guessing how he'll hit. .271/.362/.461 with a ~12% BB rate and a 18% K rate is pretty respectable...particularly given how his early MiLB career went. Drafted, Covid, skipped to AA. Seems like a pretty obvious late bloomer.

In any event, he's not Scheiner because he has the same WRC+. The whole plus D at SS and 3B is a pretty big difference over a poor 3B who's more of a 1B/LF putting up the same offensive production. 

 

[Sixtolezcano]

1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

You're making a stink over a 5th SP and a 4th OF. Those spots are not going to make or break us in the year 2024. Why? Because the year 2024 isn't the end goal. See the big picture. 

Exactly!! 2024 is a rebuilding year.

[Brewcrew82]

41 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Well, that's misleading, but, it's a stupid metric either way(off-season spending). 

What did we spend on catcher last year? Many wanted to sign a guy...can't remember his name, but good catcher. Went to Chicago and we got this Contreras kid! 24, better than the 31-year-old and we got at least one SU man and quite possibly another who dealt with injury last year.

SPENDING is not the end all be all. We've seen that...every year. 

I don't love this trade at first blush(I do trust Arnold). What I really hate is kinda kicking players in the arse on the way out saying they weren't any good anyway and overpaid...almost as much as the complaining about Attanasio.

I don't think I've ever thought more of Taylor and Houser than I do now after the trade. I wanted Houser to be replaced by Gasser in the rotation during the season. Taylor had a huge hot streak to end the season and we were able to ride that, but it's still at best a league average bat. Not poo pooing them, just acknowledging them to be the replaceable players they are.

I can understand being underwhelmed with the return. Maybe they could have gotten another player. But it's really not much of a needle mover in the grand scheme of things. I want them to play Chourio, Gasser, etc. 

[BrewerFan]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't think I've ever thought more of Taylor and Houser than I do now after the trade. I wanted Houser to be replaced by Gasser in the rotation during the season. Taylor had a huge hot streak to end the season and we were able to ride that, but it's still at best a league average bat. Not poo pooing them, just acknowledging them to be the replaceable players they are.

I can understand being underwhelmed with the return. Maybe they could have gotten another player. But it's really not much of a needle mover in the grand scheme of things. I want them to play Chourio, Gasser, etc. 

I agree on both counts, but depth is important...especially in your rotation. It's what kept us alive this past year. 

I hope Crow can add a couple of ticks, get up to 94MPH, his secondary pitches are his best pitches, but more FB velo is always nice. I just liked the SPing depth(especially IF they bring Burnes back, if not, I'd actually get it more). And I also think it's important to have a balanced lineup. Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Black, Turang, Bauers(all could be preferred starters) and then Perkins struggles vs LHPing and Dunn, potentially our top utility guy.

We're LH heavy and this been an ongoing issue. If Wiemer, Chourio both hit this year, then we're good. Also, a Santana return would help.

 

I do think something else is coming down the barrel though. We'll see what it is.

 

[SF70]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah this trade is fine if we are headed towards a rebuild which it appears to be the case. Still not great value or process to give up 2 solid MLB players for someone a team just left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft 2 weeks ago. Sacrificing roster depth when we have little roster upside if the intention is to contend is bad process, so I hope the rebuild is incoming.

Why does it appear we are headed towards a rebuild?

Prior to yesterday’s trade, everything we’ve read or heard from Attanasio-Arnold has been the opposite, that they plan on contending for a championship in ‘24.

This trade doesn’t change that at all. They just saved $7M trading 2 players they don’t need to contend next year and received a potential 2028 mid-rotation starter, thus improving the organization as a whole. 

Numerous teams around the game are cutting their payroll due to the uncertainty of their RSN’s, including the Mariners & Twins, both contending teams. The trade chops $7M off the teams payroll, allowing them to sign a Santana or comparable FA and still come in $15M less than last years OD payroll.

 

[Jopal78]

Tyrone Taylor while a sentimental favorite is really just a guy (can play all three spots with a little power an no on base skills). Trayce Thompson has nearly an identical career stat line and bounces from club to club on minor league deals, yet Taylor is set to make triple that amount. Sure it was a salary dump, but a smart one for a player who was owed more than market rate for his skill set. 
 

Houser is a useful major league pitcher, but in ‘23 he failed to pitch five innings in his starts more often than he made it to the sixth inning. Another player who is kind of pricey for what his skill set brings to the table. Below average starting pitcher or long relief. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Judging by the return the Brewers got, I assume that both Taylor and Houser were probably on the negative end of the tender/non-tender discussion. The Mets stepped in and offered a marginally-valued nugget, and saved the Brewers the need to have to inform two of the longest tenured players on the MLB roster that their services were no longer going to be required. I've always been a Houser fan, so this one hurts. He was the last one standing from that incredible 2015 deal that netted Josh Hader, among other contributors. 

I think, if anything, this trade signals a commitment to youth. Churio/Mitchell/Frelick/Weimer ... Ashby/Gasser. I think they signed Joe Ross to basically serve Houser's role, at probably a higher upside and fraction of the cost. 

I think it's important to remember that it's only Dec. 21. The 2024 Opening Day roster is far from set.  This is typically the kind of move that starts a domino effect of more substantial moves.

[jay87shot]

I think the problem is that those of you for this trade are not seeing the economics of the deal. We should have been able to get a better return for just one of those guys. I am in agreement that I would rather have Gasser get a rotation spot over Houser and have more OF ab's for our young bats. However we should have done better, the 7 million we save is not going to get us anything of notable value that is better than Houser. The 2 40 man spots are meaningless because we could easily release Baukausas and Vinny Capra to get those spots.

To this point our mlb roster, offesnse and pitching has gotten worse than last year. On top of that our farm system has also taken a hit. I have faith Arnold will make some good moves and signings but I am worried with the direction of our offseason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think the problem is that those of you for this trade are not seeing the economics of the deal. We should have been able to get a better return for just one of those guys. I am in agreement that I would rather have Gasser get a rotation spot over Houser and have more OF ab's for our young bats. However we should have done better, the 7 million we save is not going to get us anything of notable value that is better than Houser. The 2 40 man spots are meaningless because we could easily release Baukausas and Vinny Capra to get those spots.

To this point our mlb roster, offesnse and pitching has gotten worse than last year. On top of that our farm system has also taken a hit. I have faith Arnold will make some good moves and signings but I am worried with the direction of our offseason.

I think we as fans are often guilty of putting more value on certain players than what their actual value is in the eyes of MLB GMs. I'm sure Arnold shopped Taylor and Houser. It is likely that other teams knew there was a good chance that both would be non-tendered. Taylor just doesn't fit into the prospective roster construction. Houser probably does, but his prospective arb salary creates a cost/benefit problem. I get that both of these guys have been kicking around this organization for a long time, but its safe to say that neither has really fulfilled the high promise they once had. And while there is still value in players like that, veterans who kick around the bottom end of teams' 25- and 40-man rosters are pretty regularly moved in deals like this.

[Fear The Chorizo]

39 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think the problem is that those of you for this trade are not seeing the economics of the deal. We should have been able to get a better return for just one of those guys. I am in agreement that I would rather have Gasser get a rotation spot over Houser and have more OF ab's for our young bats. However we should have done better, the 7 million we save is not going to get us anything of notable value that is better than Houser. The 2 40 man spots are meaningless because we could easily release Baukausas and Vinny Capra to get those spots.

To this point our mlb roster, offesnse and pitching has gotten worse than last year. On top of that our farm system has also taken a hit. I have faith Arnold will make some good moves and signings but I am worried with the direction of our offseason.

I hear this argument alot about not getting a good enough player or package back - I'm interested in specifically what you feel would be appropriate trade compensation for either Taylor or Houser based on their age, established roles as bottom of a MLB roster depth, years left of team control, and cost.  Especially considering these guys are borderline non-tender candidates.  With how the current arbitration process works, it's not just as simple as saying "so and so makes $10M a season after he signed a free agent deal to give you the same pitching value as Houser" without also adding the numerous pre arbitration or minor league free agent arms who provided equal to better value than Houser did on the mound last season, to the calculus, too (all who which would have much longer team control remaining).  Same goes for Taylor, who was injured/terrible during the 1st half of last season and game back with a good two months of play to get his offensive numbers more in line with career averages - which are exactly that for a reserve OF....meh.

The Brewers very likely got the best years of Taylor and Houser's careers given their ages playing for them in Milwaukee - these aren't the type of guys you want hanging around on your roster well into their 30s, good organizations have more talented and cheaper options to take their spots (or plan to acquire players from outside the organization to do so), and this appears to be the case in Milwaukee.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Why does it appear we are headed towards a rebuild?

Prior to yesterday’s trade, everything we’ve read or heard from Attanasio-Arnold has been the opposite, that they plan on contending for a championship in ‘24.

This trade doesn’t change that at all. They just saved $7M trading 2 players they don’t need to contend next year and received a potential 2028 mid-rotation starter, thus improving the organization as a whole. 

Numerous teams around the game are cutting their payroll due to the uncertainty of their RSN’s, including the Mariners & Twins, both contending teams. The trade chops $7M off the teams payroll, allowing them to sign a Santana or comparable FA and still come in $15M less than last years OD payroll.

 

Everything is good but 2028. Crow was rule 5 eligible this year. You don't go 4 more seasons of dealing with that. Crow ought to be pitching for the team by 2026. If not appear in some fashion in 2025. 

[SF70]

5 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Everything is good but 2028. Crow was rule 5 eligible this year. You don't go 4 more seasons of dealing with that. Crow ought to be pitching for the team by 2026. If not appear in some fashion in 2025. 

Pitching for MKE by ‘26, yes, then add a couple of years of big league development to reach the mid rotation arm.

[homer]

The return does seem light. But I do like that the Brewers are starting to stockpile some arms to potentially match up with all the young hitters they have.

[Playing Catch]

I think the thing most people are having a hard time with, myself included, is determining the quality of prospect that Crow represents.

Superficially, it looks bad -- TJ, short, soft-tosser, Rule 5 candidate, #28 prospect for Mets (now #25 for Brewers), two-for-one, etc.

But after peeling back the layers, it seems like Crow was a target. A guy the Brewers truly believe in as a future mainstay of the Brewers rotation -- and a guy with some helium that w/o the Tommy John, would have been 40-manned by the Mets or traded for more than what the Brewers just gave up. A prospect with a pretty similar "look" as Gasser.

Trading Houser and Taylor for a Gasser clone, I think, would make everyone feel pretty comfortable with the trade.

[wiguy94]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Tyrone Taylor while a sentimental favorite is really just a guy (can play all three spots with a little power an no on base skills). Trayce Thompson has nearly an identical career stat line and bounces from club to club on minor league deals, yet Taylor is set to make triple that amount. Sure it was a salary dump, but a smart one for a player who was owed more than market rate for his skill set. 
 

Houser is a useful major league pitcher, but in ‘23 he failed to pitch five innings in his starts more often than he made it to the sixth inning. Another player who is kind of pricey for what his skill set brings to the table. Below average starting pitcher or long relief. 

What a lousy comparison. Tyrone has 100 fewer career PA and 1.7 more fWAR. He’s a plus defender in the OF compared to Thompson being average. If Thompson was as good as Tyrone then the Mets would have never traded for Tyrone because they already have Thompson!
 

Another person saying Houser is pricy. What are we doing here? Have you not paid attention to the contracts pitchers are getting in FA?

[brewerfan82]

On the surface I don't like losing the depth on the team and the return feels light for a couple useful players. That said, I don't think either player had a ton of value, their production is replaceable with players in the organization already (and there's a decent possibility acquisitions are still to come that will outproduce each player), the organization knows more about Crow than I do and may value him more than a lottery ticket, and I don't know what discussions are going on that may have required them to free up some money and 40-man roster spots sooner than later.

I'm more concerned about losing the pitching depth with Houser than losing TT with all the young outfielders we have, but we'll see how the rest of the offseason goes. Plenty of time to recoup that depth.

In the end, this feels like at worst a "meh" move that frees up some cash and a couple 40-man roster spots and likely doesn't end up significantly altering this season in any meaningful way.

[markedman5]

 

[brewmann04]

I didn't like moving Houser especially with an Iffy Rotation and to add a Guy who won't be Pitching most of 2024 is a bit underwhelming.

The Brewers seem to like the Guys coming off TJS this i know is not anywhere as bad than in the older days but there still a Risk.

[homer]

50 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

What a lousy comparison.

Stop doing this or take a timeout.

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I hear this argument alot about not getting a good enough player or package back - I'm interested in specifically what you feel would be appropriate trade compensation for either Taylor or Houser based on their age, established roles as bottom of a MLB roster depth, years left of team control, and cost.  Especially considering these guys are borderline non-tender candidates.  With how the current arbitration process works, it's not just as simple as saying "so and so makes $10M a season after he signed a free agent deal to give you the same pitching value as Houser" without also adding the numerous pre arbitration or minor league free agent arms who provided equal to better value than Houser did on the mound last season, to the calculus, too (all who which would have much longer team control remaining).  Same goes for Taylor, who was injured/terrible during the 1st half of last season and game back with a good two months of play to get his offensive numbers more in line with career averages - which are exactly that for a reserve OF....meh.

The Brewers very likely got the best years of Taylor and Houser's careers given their ages playing for them in Milwaukee - these aren't the type of guys you want hanging around on your roster well into their 30s, good organizations have more talented and cheaper options to take their spots (or plan to acquire players from outside the organization to do so), and this appears to be the case in Milwaukee.

I posted similar trades earlier. 1/2 year of Ryan Yarbrough got the Dodgers 29th prospect and a 19 year old lotto prospect, Houser has a full year of contol and is similar quality pitchers. We gave up Avina and Sanchez for Bauers. Taylor is way more valuable than Bauers and I would argue Avina is a better prospect than Crow because he isn't out all year.