2024 Brewers Offense

[Brewcrew82]

It's already 2024 in most parts of the world, right? Made this post in response to someone on a different thread, but thought it was worth a broader discussion. Assuming Santana is indeed reupped soon, here's what we could be looking at, with Steamer projected wRC+: 

1) Frelick LF (projected 103 wRC+)

2) Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+)

3) Yelich DH (projected 116 wRC+)

4) Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+)

5) Santana 1B (projected 104 wRC+)

6) Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+)

7) Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+*a pretty conservative projection, with the upside for more obviously*)

8 Mitchell/Wiemer RF (GM career 117 wRC+ vs. RHP; JW career 115 wRC+ vs. LHP)

9 Turang/Monasterio 2B (BT projected 88 wRC+; AM career 118 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Overall, that's an average to above average lineup, with the upside to be even better depending on how some of these young guys progress (possibility Chourio starts off like Acuna, Tatis, JRod, Carroll). Definitely better than what we ran out in the first half last year. And would likely remain one of the top 5 defenses in the game (could be the best defensive OF in the game). 

Also, stacks up pretty well with our counterparts in the NL Central. Can see why the team may elect to hold Burnes, Adames, Williams, etc, if they don't get a compelling enough offer. 

I think we could still use a right-handed bopper in the Corner IF/DH, and wouldn't be opposed to a Soler signing or even a Donaldson reunion. Hoskins is the dream, but that seems a long-shot. 

[jay87shot]

Vs. RHP

1)LF Frelick  2)3B Black 3)LF Yelich 4)C Contreras  5)1B Santana (or other decent 1B FA not Bauers) 6)SS Adames 7)RF Mitchell 8) CF Chourio 9)2B Turang

Vs. LHP

1) LF Yelich 2) 1B Santana 3)SS Adames 4)DH Contreras 5)CF Chourio 6) RF Frelick 7) 3B Black 8) C Haase 9) 2B Montesario

I don't mind going 3 lefties vs RHP, Frelick, Black, Yeli all hit LHP well enough to do that. 

 

[Devinep]

I’m glad the Brewers haven’t signed Carlos Santana because I think if they were looking to settle for him, he’d be signed already. So hopefully they’re trying for a big bat and not yet another mediocre bat. Not that I’d be too upset if he ends up being the 1B as a fallback.

in terms of the overall offense, they need 1 anchor bat and IMO a 2nd good bat because the middle of the lineup is weak right now. And one needs to be a lefty masher. Those spots are 1B for sure. But the 2nd bat could be some combo of DH/1B/2B/3B.

I’d be pumped with a Rhys Hoskins signing and a Jorge Polanco trade. Turang is a black hole offensively yet and Polanco can play 3B/DH also.

or just sign 2 olds to 1 year deals to mash and move on. Justin Turner/Brandon Belt.

A surprise trade I’d look at is getting Isaac Paredes for a package starting with Quero. Rays have everything but catching, Contreras is under control for like 4 years, and it saves TB $

 

 

 

 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Devinep said:

I’m glad the Brewers haven’t signed Carlos Santana because I think if they were looking to settle for him, he’d be signed already. So hopefully they’re trying for a big bat and not yet another mediocre bat. Not that I’d be too upset if he ends up being the 1B as a fallback.

 

If we don't sign Santana, Bauers will be our starting 1B in my opinion.  We mess around and wait too long, Santana is going to be scooped up by someone else, and we'll be stuck again with no legit 1B.  I feel that Hoskins is a pipe dream, especially now that a couple larger market teams have been connected to signing him.

[Devinep]

46 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If we don't sign Santana, Bauers will be our starting 1B in my opinion.  We mess around and wait too long, Santana is going to be scooped up by someone else, and we'll be stuck again with no legit 1B.  I feel that Hoskins is a pipe dream, especially now that a couple larger market teams have been connected to signing him.

Yes Hoskins may sign with someone else, but the Brewwrs do have the $ if they want. Plus, it isn’t like after Hoskins there are no prions other than Santana.

free agency: Justin Turner, Brandon Belt.

trades: Isaac Paredes, Harold Ramirez, Ryan Mountcastle. 
 

No offense to Santana, who would be fine. That’s just another “meh” in a lineup full of “meh” already and pretty much to be consistently a threat 

[yourout]

Does anyone know if they made any changes to the coaching on the hitting side?

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers absolutely need a right-handed power bat, maybe two.

Brewers are gambling on Wiemer to be the big power bat in the OF, something he failed to do in 2023.  They traded away his safety net by dealing Taylor.  At the very least, they need to find some RH power for the corner infield spots/DH,  

---

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Jorge Soler looks like a really good fit on this roster, especially if he's signed as the DH to go along with Santana to play 1B

[Soupbone]

MLBTR has Turner projected for a one year deal at $16 million.

Cots has Brewer payroll under $100 million.

Get it done.

[umphrey]

Yeah… I don’t feel good about the offense. Your lineup 2 thru 5 is pretty decent without being spectacular. Wish Adames could move down to 6 or something like that but it’s fine.

The problem area is 6 to 9. Chourio and Black, I like the prospects and the potential, but I look at those 2 players and just only expect 1 of them to be a consistent producer in 2024. It’s just how it goes, good prospects often take a year or 2 to find heir MLB legs.

Then 8 and 9, 2 of those players were complete disasters in 2023. Monasterio it looked like he was figured out in the 2nd half and Mitchell is Mitchell, didn’t play lasted year and prior to that he was a small sample guy with some red flag stats in his profile.

Looking at those 4 guys listed in 8/9, I think I would guess 2 are serviceable and 2 are cringe level bad  if that happens it’s not a terrible spot to be in but it kills any platoon advantage, depth and rest days  

I am a Frelick believer though, think he’ll do well. 

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Yeah… I don’t feel good about the offense. Your lineup 2 thru 5 is pretty decent without being spectacular. Wish Adames could move down to 6 or something like that but it’s fine.

The problem area is 6 to 9. Chourio and Black, I like the prospects and the potential, but I look at those 2 players and just only expect 1 of them to be a consistent producer in 2024. It’s just how it goes, good prospects often take a year or 2 to find heir MLB legs.

Then 8 and 9, 2 of those players were complete disasters in 2023. Monasterio it looked like he was figured out in the 2nd half and Mitchell is Mitchell, didn’t play lasted year and prior to that he was a small sample guy with some red flag stats in his profile.

Looking at those 4 guys listed in 8/9, I think I would guess 2 are serviceable and 2 are cringe level bad  if that happens it’s not a terrible spot to be in but it kills any platoon advantage, depth and rest days  

I am a Frelick believer though, think he’ll do well. 

And this is why keeping Burnes is a huge gamble. As of today, you’re counting on a bunch of rookies and 2nd year guys to carry the offense. The lineup is very young and inexperienced. Yelich and Contreras can only do so much. Just seems like more of a transition year to me and holding onto guys like Burnes would be strange.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Yeah… I don’t feel good about the offense. Your lineup 2 thru 5 is pretty decent without being spectacular. Wish Adames could move down to 6 or something like that but it’s fine.

The problem area is 6 to 9. Chourio and Black, I like the prospects and the potential, but I look at those 2 players and just only expect 1 of them to be a consistent producer in 2024. It’s just how it goes, good prospects often take a year or 2 to find heir MLB legs.

Then 8 and 9, 2 of those players were complete disasters in 2023. Monasterio it looked like he was figured out in the 2nd half and Mitchell is Mitchell, didn’t play lasted year and prior to that he was a small sample guy with some red flag stats in his profile.

Looking at those 4 guys listed in 8/9, I think I would guess 2 are serviceable and 2 are cringe level bad  if that happens it’s not a terrible spot to be in but it kills any platoon advantage, depth and rest days  

I am a Frelick believer though, think he’ll do well. 

I don't disagree with this, but I do think that we need to play our young players to see what we have. They may hold Black back for a few weeks to gain a year of service time, but we're going to have a lot of PAs going to young talent. That probably gives us a wide bell curve as to what to expect.

The (non-pitcher) position where we really don't have young talent that would be blocked by a FA pickup is first base, and I guess that could extend to DH. It's probably not a big deal if Bauers loses PAs, but the young OFs will be there from day one, and once Black is up, he should be an everyday player. 

Turang is a bit iffy, as he had a down season offensively, but I don't really want to see him up as a bench player/utility guy.  

[Underachiever]

I still think so many here are being impatient with Turang. I am hopeful for improvement at the plate, and still love that glove. 

That said, I would be okay with either or both of Chourio and Black becoming the next Corbin Carroll or Steven Kwan. Just pop a couple of 5 WAR seasons out as rookies. Turang could hit .125 if that happened.

[TURBO]

22 hours ago, Soupbone said:

MLBTR has Turner projected for a one year deal at $16 million.

Cots has Brewer payroll under $100 million.

Get it done.

I just can't see them throwing 16 million at one guy, even if for only one season.  I have been trained to think that is too much money, it's part of being a Brewers fan.

I mean, if we really want to pay a bat, and according to most, Hoskins can be had for 2 years 32-36 million, why not take that route?  We know that isn't going to happen though.

[monty57]

23 hours ago, Soupbone said:

MLBTR has Turner projected for a one year deal at $16 million.

Cots has Brewer payroll under $100 million.

Get it done.

Fangraphs/Steamer has Justin Turner projected at: .261/.333/.414 for a .326 wOBA and 105 wRC+ Projected fWAR 0.7

Meanwhile, Black is projected at: .240/.342/.401 for a .327 wOBA and 104 wRC+ Projected fWAR 1.2

I wouldn't sign Turner at $16M to block Black at 3B, and if I were looking at a 1B, I'd probably look at other options before Turner. 

If you're thinking Turner could play 3B,  moving Black to 2B, here's Turang's projection: .246/.320/.371 for a .326 wOBA and 88 wRC+ Projected fWAR 1.4 His defense makes his projected fWAR higher than Black and twice that of Turner, i.e. he's more valuable even though he doesn't hit as well. 

Meanwhile, Santana is projected at: .239/.329/.412 for a .323 wOBA and 104wRC+ Projected fWAR 0.8. He would cost about half of what they're projecting for Turner, and should provide about equal value for a team needing a first baseman.

I would target Hoskins. If he's a no-go, I'd look at Martinez or Soler, mainly at DH. If none of those happen, I'd settle for Santana. All of this of course would assume that we go the FA route. That could change quickly if/when some trades happen, which is probably what the Brewers are trying to do first.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

I just can't see them throwing 16 million at one guy, even if for only one season.  I have been trained to think that is too much money, it's part of being a Brewers fan.

I mean, if we really want to pay a bat, and according to most, Hoskins can be had for 2 years 32-36 million, why not take that route?  We know that isn't going to happen though.

Hoskins' agent is Scott Boras....if he could be had for 2 yrs, 32-36 million he would've been signed weeks ago.  I guarantee you right now that interested teams are being told it will take twice the amount of years and more than twice the amount of salary in the range people are expecting to get him to sign a contract.

Hoskins will be among the last notable free agent players to sign this offseason because of who his agent is, and because there are a number of large market team Boras is going to continue selling him to despite him missing last season with a knee injury.  I'm expecting Hoskins to wind up signing a 3-4 year deal in the neighborhood of $20-21M per season that has some sort of player opt out after 1 or 2 seasons - which I think prices Milwaukee out of the picture, and rightfully so.  It's why I think Santana + spending at DH for a righthanded slugger makes more sense for the 2024 roster if they plan to keep key pitchers for another season (Burnes/Williams).

[umphrey]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

I don't disagree with this, but I do think that we need to play our young players to see what we have. They may hold Black back for a few weeks to gain a year of service time, but we're going to have a lot of PAs going to young talent. That probably gives us a wide bell curve as to what to expect.

The (non-pitcher) position where we really don't have young talent that would be blocked by a FA pickup is first base, and I guess that could extend to DH. It's probably not a big deal if Bauers loses PAs, but the young OFs will be there from day one, and once Black is up, he should be an everyday player. 

Turang is a bit iffy, as he had a down season offensively, but I don't really want to see him up as a bench player/utility guy.  

Yeah I agree, if I were GM I would trade Burnes and Williams, either sign or trade Adames and just play for 2025. Play all the guys listed and if possible a 1B from trade. I’m tempted to even wedge Quero in there somewhere using a catcher for 1B/DH but maybe not the best idea. 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hoskins' agent is Scott Boras....if he could be had for 2 yrs, 32-36 million he would've been signed weeks ago.  I guarantee you right now that interested teams are being told it will take twice the amount of years and more than twice the amount of salary in the range people are expecting to get him to sign a contract.

Hoskins will be among the last notable free agent players to sign this offseason because of who his agent is, and because there are a number of large market team Boras is going to continue selling him to despite him missing last season with a knee injury.  I'm expecting Hoskins to wind up signing a 3-4 year deal in the neighborhood of $20-21M per season that has some sort of player opt out after 1 or 2 seasons - which I think prices Milwaukee out of the picture, and rightfully so.  It's why I think Santana + spending at DH for a righthanded slugger makes more sense for the 2024 roster if they plan to keep key pitchers for another season (Burnes/Williams).

You may be right. I'm just going off of MLBtr's projection. 

The offseason has been slow, especially for position players. It's not just Hoskins waiting to be signed. At some point, there's going to be a flurry of moves. I hope the Brewers get what they want done before this happens.

[tmwiese55]

Feel like offseasons have been slower and later for a while now so this isn't so rare.   OTOH, maybe its possible teams realized what many of us here did several weeks ago, that this years FA class is quite bad after Ohtani and the new Japanese P (since he's only 25). I think I said something in the Counsell/Cubs discussions that I hope the Cubs do blow their FA wad this year on this crop.    The mediocre players are expecting their lottery payouts and the teams are balking at it since they're not that good, plus many big spenders gave out ridiculous contracts the last couple offseasons they're regretting. 

Oh wait, it must be collusion and if we don't see it we're crazy (for those that remember that fun time)

[sveumrules]

Rhys Hoskins fun fact, his 1.194 OPS at Miller Family Stadium is his 3rd best OPS in any ballpark, and first best among parks where he has at least 15 PA.

Considering he is likely to have a number of suitors, and will also probably want an opt out after year one, maybe something little like that could help him choose Milwaukee among a sea of what are likely to be similar contract offers.

Then again, maybe not. Mitch Garver signed with Seattle and he is 0-31 career at Safeco.

[TURBO]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Rhys Hoskins fun fact, his 1.194 OPS at Miller Family Stadium is his 3rd best OPS in any ballpark, and first best among parks where he has at least 15 PA.

Considering he is likely to have a number of suitors, and will also probably want an opt out after year one, maybe something little like that could help him choose Milwaukee among a sea of what are likely to be similar contract offers.

Then again, maybe not. Mitch Garver signed with Seattle and he is 0-31 career at Safeco.

$$ talks, always has, always will...

[nate82]

For Hoskins his minimum contract would be what Conforto signed last off season.  So that is your starting point and I don't believe teams are willing to give that contract out again which is why Hoskins hasn't signed with anyone yet and there really hasn't been anything on him signing with any team right now.  I think Hoskins is waiting it out until a team comes up with the AAV at or above what Conforto got currently waiting on above.  The closer we get to spring training he will probably sign a 1-year deal close to what Conforto got in his AAV. 

That doesn't rule the Brewers out as they have done this before with Grandal but I wouldn't expect this to happen.  I am not even sure Hoskins would be worth a 1-year $16-18mm contract. 

[brewerfan82]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

I just can't see them throwing 16 million at one guy, even if for only one season.  I have been trained to think that is too much money, it's part of being a Brewers fan.

I mean, if we really want to pay a bat, and according to most, Hoskins can be had for 2 years 32-36 million, why not take that route?  We know that isn't going to happen though.

I'm not optimistic that Hoskins will happen (just too many teams are interested, which makes the odds low), but I think it's the splashiest move that is reasonably capable of happening still too (outside of some sort of trade acquisition).

$16M isn't unheard of with this team and ownership:

• Yelich extension averages close to $24M/yr over 9 years
• Braun extension averaged $21M/yr over 5 years
• Cain contract was signed for an average of $16M/yr over 5 years
• Grandal was 1 yr at $18.25M

 

[tmwiese55]

They also did free up a comparable salary slot with having lost Woodruff.   So that's gone, the 8 mil slot of the last few years for the vet DH type is free as of now, the 8ish mil dump with Hauser/Taylor.   A 1-2 year deal of that kind seems in the budget if they do keep Burnes and 'go for it'.  The question is if there is a player of that caliber willing to take it like Moose/Grandall did. 

My guess is Hoskins does better than that and they end up with another 8ish mil type guy in the Santana vein. 

[Underachiever]

For those who want Hoskins, is there a number at which you say, "OK, I'm out?" The 2/36 number, I believe, is going to be low, because I think someone would have signed him at that already. As mentioned, I believe that he is looking for more years. If someone signs him for 4/80, would you say Mark A is cheap? Given that we have no idea what the Brewers nor Hoskins are thinking, what's your number? I believe that someone is going to blink and give Hoskins way more than 2/36, whether in years, dollars, or both.