2024 Brewers Rotation

[Underachiever]

We have a thread on offense, so I want to hear the BF Brain's thoughts about the rotation. I remember last year there was discussion about having 8 starters to choose from, and then injuries took care of that. Since Burnes is still on the team, he anchors the rotation with Peralta, Miley, Rea, and then...Joe Ross? Ethan Small? Jacob Misiorowski? Robert Gasser?

Last year, in my memory, at this time we had Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Houser, Lauer, Ashby, with maybe some talk of Bryse Wilson. Ended up needing 33 starts from Rea and Teheran.

I was looking for some information on Aaron Ashby and cannot find anything substantive. There is this quote from Matt Arnold:

“He really feels good. He’s coming back, throwing, playing catch, working out,” Arnold said. “I think he’s on track to be a part of our rotation, hopefully next year. That’s the expectation. This guy is working his tail off to try to come back and he’s definitely on the right track."

Does that mean he expects Ashby to be game-ready from the start of next year, or just sometime next year?

“It’s hard to say,” Arnold said. “You want to be cautious with these types of things. When he’s ready, he’s certainly going to be part of our mix, for sure.”

To me, that doesn't sound good. Is anyone here thinking he will pitch this year? Is it another Woodruff situation? I look forward to the discussion.

[Brewcrew82]

I think Ashby will eventually join the rotation, though maybe not at the outset of the season. I think, if he's healthy and shows well in ST, he'll probably start by working out of the bullpen in multiple inning stints before making the transition to the rotation. 

I expect the OD rotation to be Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Rea, and Ross. Gasser starts in AAA and is first up in case of injury. 

 

[MVP2110]

Idk if he starts the year in the rotation but I'd be surprised if Gasser doesn't get a bunch of starts this year. Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Rea, Gasser. With Ross, Ashby, & Carlos Rodriguez as potential fill ins for injury.

[wallus]

I've got the rotation as: Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Rea, Gasser, Ross

[wibadgers23]

Hasn't Gasser already played 1+ seasons in AAA?  He needs to be in the rotation on OD unless he has a horrific spring. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Hasn't Gasser already played 1+ seasons in AAA?  He needs to be in the rotation on OD unless he has a horrific spring. 

I think they’re going to wait to get the extra year of control. Unless there’s an injury in ST.

[MVP2110]

55 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Hasn't Gasser already played 1+ seasons in AAA?  He needs to be in the rotation on OD unless he has a horrific spring. 

When talking about a pitcher they can save an extra year of control by basically missing 2 or 3 starts so I'd be pretty surprised if he's up opening day, but I don't expect a long wait 

[BallFour]

I have concerns about how Gasser is going to get outs against major league right handed hitters. You hope he can get some of Miley's cutter magic and apply it to himself. 

My hope is that Misiorowski has cleaned up his delivery in the off-season. If he does, he will be in the rotation at some point. If he doesn't he still is going to be helping the Brewers out of the bullpen. 

Out of the 3 prospects Carlos Rodriguez is the one I anticipate giving the Brewers the most effective innings as a starter this year. He has the most complete package in terms of repertoire. A devastating changeup to get out lefties. I really am bullish on him.

Ashby is the x-factor. I expect nothing and anything the Brewers get will be a bonus. I would be lying though if I didn't think about if he is healthy and can be apart of the rotation for a decent amount of the season it really raises the ceiling of the rotation.

 

[Underachiever]

Talk to me about Ashby. He’s my pitching version of Garrett Mitchell in that many posters are higher on him than I am. And this was before Ashby’s injury. Who’s a comp for him, if healthy? Is he a 2? A3?

[Playing Catch]

9 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Talk to me about Ashby. He’s my pitching version of Garrett Mitchell in that many posters are higher on him than I am. And this was before Ashby’s injury. Who’s a comp for him, if healthy? Is he a 2? A3?

Well, to give you some idea, in comparing Ashby's first 2 seasons to Woodruff's, Ashby pitched about 50 more innings, with more starts, compiling 1.3 fWAR. He had better K%, and better xFIP. Woody's BB% was a little better, compiling 1.0 fWAR.

So Ashby's future was looking pretty bright. 

 

 

[sveumrules]

I think Garrett Mitchell is a good position player comp for Ashby.

Both have dealt with injury issues, both have the look and toolbox to succeed at their respective positions yet have struggled to put it all together in their limited field time.

The best thing Ashby has going for him is he gets grounders. Among 352 pitchers with at least 130 IP since 2021, his 133 GB%+ ranks 20th. That’s just outside top 5th percentile.

His strikeout rate isn’t quite as impressive, but a 119 K%+ is still good enough to rank 73rd, just outside the top 20th percentile.

Closest comp to him over that stretch in terms of ground balls and strikeouts would be Jordan Hicks (115 K%+ | 137 GB%+). Other guys in the neighborhood are Lance McCullers (117 K%+ | 130 GB%+), Hunter Brown (116 K%+ | 129 GB%+) or Emmanuel Clase (111 K%+ | 147 GB%+).

Problems aside from health for Aaron have been walks (115 BB%+ | 270th) and home runs (109 HR9+ | 243rd).

Given his command and health woahs, I think his best role would be as a MIRP (multi inning relief pitcher), but there is number two tree starter upside in there so I can understand trying him in the rotation.

[Underachiever]

Really appreciate the info and discussion.

[BallFour]

I would be more bullish on Ashby if he wasn't coming back from a  shoulder injury. He really ran into some weird luck in 2022. He gave up an OPS of .720 to hitters in 0-2 counts. The league average is like around a .400 OPS in that specific count. Small sample of course but there is a reason his xERA was 3.75 while his ERA was 4.44. I really think he was having those 2019 growing pains that Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff all went through and was going to be a better pitcher because of it. All that said none of that information really matters till we see him on the mound again. His 6 2023 minor league appearances were really bad. So when I say for myself that I expect nothing and will be pleasantly surprised with anything. I really mean it.

[edfunderburk]

On 1/25/2024 at 6:36 PM, wallus said:

I've got the rotation as: Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Rea, Gasser, Ross

Has Janson Junk signed in Japan yet?

If he doesn’t get a job there - Is he still under contract with Milwaukee & in the mix?

If he remains with the Brewers - Is he a bullpen arm or a starter?

[edfunderburk]

On 1/25/2024 at 7:09 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I think they’re going to wait to get the extra year of control. Unless there’s an injury in ST.

Wait until May? June?

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Wait until May? June?

A couple weeks for the extra year of control. June to avoid Super 2. 

[MVP2110]

 

 

[jay87shot]

I like always like the idea of piggybacking guys coming off injury. To me Ross and Ahsby would be a perfect piggyback situation to start the year. Both get like 60-70 pitch counts and hopefully save the rest of the bullpen. After a bit you can then move to a 6 man rotation or put 1 in the pen (5 man).  I like keeping Gasser down to get an extra year, I am sure an injury or ineffectiveness somewhere will clear a spot for him in the 1st half. CRod maybe gets a chance around the allstar break even if it is just for 3/4 starts somewhere when the team goes through like a 18 games in 18 day streak (not sure when or if we do but usually it happens).

[markedman5]

I think after how Ashby pitched last year after his return they are going to want to see him pitch effectively in the minors before they hand him a rotation slot of any kind…….need to see his velocity back as well.

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

I think after how Ashby pitched last year after his return they are going to want to see him pitch effectively in the minors before they hand him a rotation slot of any kind…….need to see his velocity back as well.

Eh, I think if he pitches well in ST, it'd be enough to put him in the OD bullpen at least. Little difference between that and minor league rehab. Will be one where ST results actually do matter. 

I don't put too much stock into last year's few outing stint. He was playing with less than a full deck of cards, as we now know.

[markedman5]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Eh, I think if he pitches well in ST, it'd be enough to put him in the OD bullpen at least. Little difference between that and minor league rehab. Will be one where ST results actually do matter. 

I don't put too much stock into last year's few outing stint. He was playing with less than a full deck of cards, as we now know.

We will see……I expect him to start out in the minors but you could be right.

[Playing Catch]

I want him on the roster immediately. He's being paid. Even if he's got some re-learning/polishing to do, there's no problem having him at the end of the pen as a multi-inning lefty.

[brewmann04]

I will like to see them sign another FA pitcher 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/25/2024 at 7:58 PM, MVP2110 said:

When talking about a pitcher they can save an extra year of control by basically missing 2 or 3 starts so I'd be pretty surprised if he's up opening day, but I don't expect a long wait 

This pretty much works both ways. Start the season then be sent down when it's clear Gasser's stuff isn't ML ready.

 

Ashby-Gasser mixed with Ross. Burnes-Freddy-Miley-Rea.  

Gasser is a #4/5 expectation.  All I care about is that he gets 5innings. Gives up 4runs? So be it.  Just give me a guy who can go 5innings at the end of rotation consistently and pitches in the 6th on rare occasions.   He appears to be just that in the minors each of last 2seasons. He's left handed and that as we know is a weapon vs some lineups.

Rodriquez looks headed the Gasser route but a year behind and RH.  That makes it unlikely to see him this season without being forced to use him due to multiple injuries. It's not the highest ceiling rotation, but there's always the trade deadline to get that 3rd SP you want in the playoffs.  

So looking forward to the season.

 

[Ro Mueller]

On 1/28/2024 at 12:32 AM, edfunderburk said:

Has Janson Junk signed in Japan yet?

If he doesn’t get a job there - Is he still under contract with Milwaukee & in the mix?

If he remains with the Brewers - Is he a bullpen arm or a starter?

I've not seen any follow-on confirmation on Janson Junk, but I think that where there's smoke there's usually fire with these things. If I remember right (David Freitas a few years ago), the Brewers can collect a fee for releasing him, so that negotiation may even be the hold-up.

If Junk somehow stays, I assume we'll keep him stretched out as starting depth in AAA (catastrophe insurance for the Brewers), even if his best chance in MLB may actually be as a reliever. He just doesn't register enough strikeouts as a starter, even though his velocity is decent. However, we were relatively quick to give up on Ethan Small as a starter, so who really knows.