2024 Brewers Rotation

[Frisbee Slider]

Rea is officially listed as game 3 starter for Sunday.

Hogg said Hall or opener for game 2 but nothing formally announced.

If Junis is hurt, I suppose that leaves Ross for home opener.

You’re right that Peralta would be on ‘normal rest’ for home opener, too. That seems unlike the Brewers to do but maybe with injuries?

[markedman5]

This might have had something to do with Gasser’s last rough outing 

 

 

[TURBO]

Geez...

[wiguy94]

Really wish the Brewers could have beaten the Dbacks offer for Montgomery. Our starting pitching looks shambolic to start the year.

Peralta, Hall, Rea, Ross, Junis. Then with Miley and Gasser hurt our next in line is Junk, McKendry, Rodriguez, and Misiorowski.

[BruisedCrew]

18 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Really wish the Brewers could have beaten the Dbacks offer for Montgomery. Our starting pitching looks shambolic to start the year.

Peralta, Hall, Rea, Ross, Junis. Then with Miley and Gasser hurt our next in line is Junk, McKendry, Rodriguez, and Misiorowski.

I'd like to know what some people are smoking when they think this is a starting rotation that's going to pull a team with a mediocre offense to 85 wins or more.

[CheezWizHed]

32 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I'd like to know what some people are smoking when they think this is a starting rotation that's going to pull a team with a mediocre offense to 85 wins or more.

Fresh, clean air with lots of oxygen.  

Remember that last year's rotation rarely included Burnes, Peralta, and Woody.   It was often in shambles and held together with spit and bubble gum.  

[Frisbee Slider]

42 starts from Houser, Teheran, Lauer and Junk 

32 starts from Burnes 

11 starts from Woodruff

That’s a lot of turns in the rotation to fill but most of these innings will be at better than replacement level.

2023 starts

 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

I'd like to know what some people are smoking when they think this is a starting rotation that's going to pull a team with a mediocre offense to 85 wins or more.

FanGraphs projects the Brewers rotation for 11.9 WAR this year. Last year they posted 11.2 FIP based WAR which only takes into account their K, BB, HR and IFFB numbers. Once the defense (+68 DRS, 2nd in MLB) entered the equation, they came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR.

By that math, the rotation projects around four wins or so worse than last year. And that is with a projected 4.39 FIP/4.22 ERA (-0.17) for the group. Last year that FIP/ERA gap for the starters was over twice as large at 4.34 FIP/3.94 ERA (-0.40). If the defense works their magic again that would mitigate things even more.

If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+.

The bullpen is unlikely to repeat their historic performance (+11.73 WPA), but if they are able to come in around 2018 (+5.65 WPA), 2019 (+5.22 WPA) or 2021 (+5.90 WPA) levels that would shave say another six wins off of last year.

So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

[BruisedCrew]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs projects the Brewers rotation for 11.9 WAR this year. Last year they posted 11.2 FIP based WAR which only takes into account their K, BB, HR and IFFB numbers. Once the defense (+68 DRS, 2nd in MLB) entered the equation, they came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR.

By that math, the rotation projects around four wins or so worse than last year. And that is with a projected 4.39 FIP/4.22 ERA (-0.17) for the group. Last year that FIP/ERA gap for the starters was over twice as large at 4.34 FIP/3.94 ERA (-0.40). If the defense works their magic again that would mitigate things even more.

If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+.

The bullpen is unlikely to repeat their historic performance (+11.73 WPA), but if they are able to come in around 2018 (+5.65 WPA), 2019 (+5.22 WPA) or 2021 (+5.90 WPA) levels that would shave say another six wins off of last year.

So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

So, you're using pieces of the Fangraphs projections to produce an expectation of 86 wins.

But the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers is 80 wins.

How do you reconcile that? Are you being too generous about the Brewers offense? Mediocre doesn't necessarily mean precisely league average. 

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+.

Yes, this is the main point people miss when looking at W/L and our starting rotation.  Yes, pitching will be worse.  But our offense will be better.  And 84 wins is pretty significantly lower than last year.  So it isn't like people expect this rotation to match last year's either.

[CheezWizHed]

8 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

So, you're using pieces of the Fangraphs projections to produce an expectation of 86 wins.

But the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers is 80 wins.

How do you reconcile that? Are you being too generous about the Brewers offense? Mediocre doesn't necessarily mean precisely league average. 

 

 

He explained it in the post. 

So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

Frankly, last year wasn't projected to go over 90 wins either but we did.  This year's variation is going to much higher too given all the youth we have playing this year.  Anything between 75-90 wins isn't all that unlikely. 

[BruisedCrew]

29 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

42 starts from Houser, Teheran, Lauer and Junk 

32 starts from Burnes 

11 starts from Woodruff

That’s a lot of turns in the rotation to fill but most of these innings will be at better than replacement level.

2023 starts

 

Who are these starters that are above replacement level to take all of these starts? Especially when you factor in that more injuries to pitchers are all but certain. 

Even the most optimistic Brewer fans have to concede that the rotation is not great and that the depth is a concern when you factor in that several pitchers are already dealing with injuries and/or have a history of injuries.

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

So, you're using pieces of the Fangraphs projections to produce an expectation of 86 wins.

But the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers is 80 wins.

How do you reconcile that? Are you being too generous about the Brewers offense? Mediocre doesn't necessarily mean precisely league average. 

Over the seven full seasons that FanGraphs historical preseason projections are available the Brewers have come in an MLB best +58 Wins, an average of about eight extra wins per season. So 86 wins with an 80 win FanGraph projection is well within the realm of possibility.

[KeithStone53151]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs projects the Brewers rotation for 11.9 WAR this year. Last year they posted 11.2 FIP based WAR which only takes into account their K, BB, HR and IFFB numbers. Once the defense (+68 DRS, 2nd in MLB) entered the equation, they came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR.

By that math, the rotation projects around four wins or so worse than last year. And that is with a projected 4.39 FIP/4.22 ERA (-0.17) for the group. Last year that FIP/ERA gap for the starters was over twice as large at 4.34 FIP/3.94 ERA (-0.40). If the defense works their magic again that would mitigate things even more.

If the offense improves to mediocre and puts up an even 100 wRC+ that would be an improvement of 61.4 batting runs, or about six wins, from what they contributed last year with a 92 wRC+.

The bullpen is unlikely to repeat their historic performance (+11.73 WPA), but if they are able to come in around 2018 (+5.65 WPA), 2019 (+5.22 WPA) or 2021 (+5.90 WPA) levels that would shave say another six wins off of last year.

So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

There's a ton of volatility in our projections this year, much more than a normal year. There are quite a few viable paths to significantly more than 6 wins of improvement on offense.

That said, does your math account for the bullpen missing Williams for half the season AND needing to likely cover a lot more innings? Assuming we'll be as good as those 3 years with the bullpen is a significant assumption and could use a little more analysis. Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Devin Williams, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Guerra...all those guys had significant impact on those bullpens. All those guys were either high draft picks and/or highly regarded prospects that were expected to succeed(except Guerra). Compare that to our current crop. a lot of waiver claims and mid-level prospects that never or barely cracked our top 30 that kinda exploded to us out of nowhere. I have concerns about whether the guys that were good last year will be good this year...and consistently good going forward. Bullpen arms, aside from the elite, are very volatile year to year. Carlos Torres was a monster for a year, and then he faded. The Brewers are as good as any team at making something out of nothing with pitchers, we'll probably need a fair amount of that throughout the year this year unless I'm just way off base and all these guys are all truly solid late bloomers that continue into 2024 the same as 2023.

[BruisedCrew]

2 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

He explained it in the post. 

So essentially the math is something like 90 pythag wins in 2023, minus 4 wins from SP, minus 6 wins from RP and plus 6 wins from offense comes in around 86 wins in 2024.

Frankly, last year wasn't projected to go over 90 wins either but we did.  This year's variation is going to much higher too given all the youth we have playing this year.  Anything between 75-90 wins isn't all that unlikely. 

I saw that, but he appears to be using some Fangraphs projections and then ignoring others.

If the point is that the offense is going to improve enough to overcome a significant decline in pitching, I'll put an "I'll believe it when I see it" on that. The everyday lineup is still littered with several players with no record of success in the big leagues.

[BruisedCrew]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Over the seven full seasons that FanGraphs historical preseason projections are available the Brewers have come in an MLB best +58 Wins, an average of about eight extra wins per season. So 86 wins with an 80 win FanGraph projection is well within the realm of possibility.

And people used to point to that to support the argument that Craig Counsell is a plus manager.

Of course 86 wins is within the realm of possibility. But I hardly see it as the midpoint of reasonable expectations.

[sveumrules]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

And people used to point to that to support the argument that Craig Counsell is a plus manager.

Of course 86 wins is within the realm of possibility. But I hardly see it as the midpoint of reasonable expectations.

I don't see it as a midpoint of reasonable expectations either, was just outlining a way that the team could end up around that range.

If the starting pitching matches the worst rWAR of the Stearns/Arnold era (7.1 in 2016) and the bullpen notches their worst year since Hader blew up in 2022 (+1.68 WPA), and the offense doesn't make any improvements then it's more like 90 pythag wins, minus 9 wins from SP, minus 10 wins from RP and offense stays the same for something like 71 wins.

[monty57]

Very early into the season, but the pitching has looked good so far, giving up 10 runs in four games. A big question going into the season (at least for me) was how they are going to address the innings limits. So far, they've pulled Hall and Junis after four innings. I could see that being a normal thing for some of the starters throughout the season, so as long as the bullpen holds up, that could get us through the season without having to shut down some of our starters in August.

Hall is the only starter who showed any cracks, and that was in the first inning of his first MLB start so it's understandable. The bullpen has been outstanding. Other than Wilson's 0.1 inning followed by Milner giving up a 3-run HR, they've been almost perfect.

Again, it's very early and I don't expect them to end the season with a team 2.25 ERA, but the pitching has looked good to start the season.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

 

[KeithStone53151]

6 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Give the kid a shot, I mean...can't get any worse right? We've crossed the almost completely irrelevant service time manipulation threshold by now I would think...

[Outlander]

Gasser would have already been in the starting rotation if he didn't get injured in the minors. Could replace Wilson the next time that spot comes up or go Tuesday since Peralta always gets that extra day.

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Give the kid a shot, I mean...can't get any worse right? We've crossed the almost completely irrelevant service time manipulation threshold by now I would think...

They should definitely give him a shot, but he's not even re-stretched out yet. He threw 4.1 innings and 49 pitches today. Give him another start to bump those up to 5 and 75.

[KeithStone53151]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

They should definitely give him a shot, but he's not even re-stretched out yet. He threw 4.1 innings and 49 pitches today. Give him another start to bump those up to 5 and 75.

Fair point, but 4 is about all we get on average from starters not named Freddie. I don't think there's a wrong decision between letting him throw once more in AAA or calling him up now.