Should the Milwaukee Brewers Extend William Contreras, or Trade Him?

[Harold Hutchison]

For the price of Esteury Ruiz, the Brewers got an All-Star bat-first backstop and coached him into a superb all-around catcher. But should they extend him, or deal him? Suddenly, it's not as crazy a question as it could have seemed.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

This is a very tough question for the Crew, and there are strong arguments on both sides. For 2024, William Contreras still comes cheap in his last pre-arbitration year, costing less than $1 million and being the third-best catcher in MLB, according to Just Baseball. Even with the Brewers signing Gary Sánchez, the move isn’t likely to affect Contreras as much as it will Jeferson Quero (who seems likely to spend the bulk of 2024 in Nashville) and Eric Haase (who may find himself a roster casualty).

In 2025 and beyond, though, the Crew will need to make a decision, especially with the highly-touted Quero pressing his case. Let’s look over the case for each long-term course of action.

The Case For Extending Contreras
Why should the Crew think about extending Contreras? For starters, there is his proven track record. In his two full MLB seasons, he has posted an .840 OPS, notched an All-Star game appearance, won a Silver Slugger, and garnered MVP votes. His defense, once considered a weakness, has been taken up a notch by the Crew’s coaching staff. That sort of known quantity is a good thing, and an advantage over Quero.

Would it make sense to give Contreras an extension? He is 26 years old now, and not due for free agency until after the 2027 season, when he turns 30. The Brewers could, in theory, offer him a six-year, $75-million contract, buying out two years of free agency and avoiding arbitration, and they could lock down a solid contributor at catcher and designated hitter through 2029. That would have him in Milwaukee until he is 32, at which point he would arguably have topped Jonathan Lucroy as the best catcher in Brewers history.

While the deal would be expensive, locking Contreras up now probably would not be a financial backbreaker for the team, especially after the Corbin Burnes trade and the potential departure of Willy Adames, whether by trade or via free agency. In addition, securing the services of Contreras could give the Brewers options through the 2020s. They could have Contreras team up with Quero starting in 2025 and put forth one of the best catching tandems in MLB. Locking up Contreras could also allow the Brewers to deal Quero to solidify another part of the team.

In short, the case for keeping Contreras around is pretty straightforward. That said, it's not airtight, and not without an alternative.

The Case For Dealing Contreras
Here’s the case for dealing Contreras: Extending him would likely hinge on his willingness to sign a somewhat team-friendly deal and postpone his free agency to after his age-32 season. He may not want to do so. Consider the case of former Brewer Yasmani Grandal, who was able to sign a four-year, $73-million deal following his age 30 season. Signing the deal proposed above would bring down the ceiling on Contreras's career earnings, though it would also set a very high floor. Given the uncertainty caused by the bankruptcy of the Bally Sports regional networks, a Contreras extension could get too rich for the Crew’s blood.

In addition, there is the presence of Quero, whom the Brewers might be more likely to convince to accept a team-friendly extension along the lines of Jackson Chourio’s, not to mention other talented prospects at catcher. The Brewers may like having Contreras, but with the depth in their minor-league system, and the team’s demonstrated ability to coach up bat-first catchers, dealing Contreras (while painful) won’t be fatal to the team’s hopes for solid contribution from catcher in the long term,, or arguably even the short term (see the signing of Sánchez).

Contreras, as a top MLB catcher with multiple years of team control, could fetch an impressive haul for the Brewers. For instance, in a hypothetical deal with the Red Sox, validated by Baseball Trade Values, the Brewers would receive outfielder Roman Anthony, right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez, infielder Yoeilin Cespedes, and left-handed pitcher Brandon Walter in exchange for Contreras. While some of the position prospects return (Anthony and Cespedes) might be years out, Walter and Gonzalez could bolster the Crew’s pitching staff in 2024.

Another option might be to plus up a Brice Turang package previously suggested, sending Turang and Contreras to the Marlins for infielders Xavier Edwards and Jacob Berry, pitchers Braxton Garrett and Thomas White, and Miami’s Competitive Balance B pick, a deal also validated by Baseball Trade Values. Again, this gives the Brewers immediate rotation help in 2024 in Garrett (who is controlled through 2028). Edwards gives the Brewers long-term help at second (allowing the Crew to move Joey Ortiz to shortstop if Adames is dealt), and the Brewers get not just two more prospects, but another extra pick in the 2024 MLB draft.

The potential return could be huge for the Crew. That, in a nutshell, is the case for a trade.

Overview
In one sense, the Brewers really can’t go wrong with Contreras. If they extend him now, they lock down catcher for a long time. Dealing him now or in the 2024-2025 offseason has the potential to bring in a historic haul to help the Crew in the present and future. What the Brewers do is, in a sense, really up to Contreras at this point.

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What would you do with Contreras, Quero, and the catcher position for the Brewers? Do either of these big trade possibilities entice you? Join the conversation below.

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[Trax]

Definitely extend him now if it's with a reasonable team friendly deal.  You can always move him later if need be.

Otherwise ride it out for now.  Quero is the wild card in play here and when the time comes it will all take care of itself.

One thing for sure is Quero needs to play, not back up.

[eddiemathews]

Haven't looked recently at the relative trade values of Adames and Turang...I seem to recall that Turang is valued a bit higher....but that deal with Miami might be better with Willy instead of Turang. But I don't see anybody giving equal value at this point, and William can DH and play first while backing up Quero. I say keep him.

[Ignitor 4ever]

2 hours ago, Trax said:

Definitely extend him now if it's with a reasonable team friendly deal.  You can always move him later if need be.

Otherwise ride it out for now.  Quero is the wild card in play here and when the time comes it will all take care of itself.

One thing for sure is Quero needs to play, not back up.

This would be my argument too.  You know what you have in Contreras.  Quero is still just a prospect.  Nothing about signing Contreras damages the ability of Quero to continue to progress.  If he pans out then the Brewers have two tradeable assets and they can decide which to move.  Of course, this is all contingent on Contreras being willing to sign a deal that is somewhat team friendly.

[SF70]

I think the team will want to extend Quero and do it before he establishes himself as a big-leaguer like they did with Chourio.

His combination of age (21-22), signing bonus (200K) and culture (family) should lead to another team-friendly deal.

Keep them both for a season (‘25) and trade Contreras offseason post-‘25 season. His trajectory is to be a $60M surplus value trade asset, so, quite the return package ahead.

[Diamond Dog]

Extend Contreras and Adames.

[Brewcrew82]

I'd trade Contreras, but not until Quero has started sharing catching duties with him and proven he is up to the task. Could happen this season. Next season a more likely proposition. Which brings us to the 2025-2026 offseason where Contreras will have 2 years of control left. That's a nice sweet spot. 

[BrewerFan]

21 minutes ago, Diamond Dog said:

Extend Contreras and Adames.

Adames is a year away and we've got multiple options to replace him. 

I see the rationale in extending Adames. He's SUCH a huge part of the personality of this team, keeping them loose, etc...but I don't think it's worth the upside to extend him now. I think you're looking at 6/150 to keep this version of Adames. I come out on the "extend them now," side up until arbitration, then see where you're at and once a high-level player has just a year or even two left, my own opinion moves towards trade and getting assets for him(as they did with Burnes).

There's certainly not the risk with a SS vs a Pitcher, but I still don't see the upside there.

 

If we really cared about a power-hitting SS...we signed Chourio as a SS. I'm just sayin'....

[Bashopolis]

It seems really unlikely that an extension will happen.  Especially for a catcher extending into his early thirties really diminishes over all earning potential. 
An extension through age 32 is generally a bad idea for a player and even a worse idea for a catcher.  At age 30, Contreras could get a 4 or 5 year free agent deal.  At 32 he is more likely to be going year to year.  
But if he is willing, an extension doesn’t preclude trading him later so the Brewers should consider it.  

[jay87shot]

I would love to extend him and if Quero is a beast this year in AAA then next offseason you make the tough decision on who to trade. At this point however maybe it is best to wait a couple months and see how things look. Maybe it becomes a more clear picture come May and the extend him/trade him next year decision is easier.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:24 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd trade Contreras, but not until Quero has started sharing catching duties with him and proven he is up to the task. Could happen this season. Next season a more likely proposition. Which brings us to the 2025-2026 offseason where Contreras will have 2 years of control left. That's a nice sweet spot. 

then you are why the Brewers will never win anything .  trading the best hitter in baseball instead of extending him for a decade is how you lose forever.   

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/13/2024 at 8:45 AM, jay87shot said:

I would love to extend him and if Quero is a beast this year in AAA then next offseason you make the tough decision on who to trade. At this point however maybe it is best to wait a couple months and see how things look. Maybe it becomes a more clear picture come May and the extend him/trade him next year decision is easier.

He is the MVP of the 2024 season  .  Now what are we waiting for ?

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:00 PM, SF70 said:

I think the team will want to extend Quero and do it before he establishes himself as a big-leaguer like they did with Chourio.

His combination of age (21-22), signing bonus (200K) and culture (family) should lead to another team-friendly deal.

Keep them both for a season (‘25) and trade Contreras offseason post-‘25 season. His trajectory is to be a $60M surplus value trade asset, so, quite the return package ahead.

When I read these I understand why the Brewers never win anything real .   The fanbase simply has gotten so used to trading away good players and making it normal that this team will never get a foothold to being a truly great team .  you do not trade MVPs and William is an MVP of the entire Show yet so many of you are perfectly happy just selling out so other teams can win with our developed players.   It is so sad .  

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/13/2024 at 8:45 AM, jay87shot said:

I would love to extend him and if Quero is a beast this year in AAA then next offseason you make the tough decision on who to trade. At this point however maybe it is best to wait a couple months and see how things look. Maybe it becomes a more clear picture come May and the extend him/trade him next year decision is easier.

Why is it wrong to have two good catchers that can hit locked up for a long time?

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/13/2024 at 8:30 AM, Bashopolis said:

It seems really unlikely that an extension will happen.  Especially for a catcher extending into his early thirties really diminishes over all earning potential. 
An extension through age 32 is generally a bad idea for a player and even a worse idea for a catcher.  At age 30, Contreras could get a 4 or 5 year free agent deal.  At 32 he is more likely to be going year to year.  
But if he is willing, an extension doesn’t preclude trading him later so the Brewers should consider it.  

What you just said is weird and wrong.    William is 26 .  He is the best player at catcher in the MLB today and he is going to get better not worse and everything you just said about a catcher is weirdly incorrect .   It does not matter what position they play when they hit 350 constantly and are the most dangerous at bat the brewers have had since Yount or Molitor .   You do not trade away MVP hitters .  

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/13/2024 at 8:30 AM, Bashopolis said:

It seems really unlikely that an extension will happen.  Especially for a catcher extending into his early thirties really diminishes over all earning potential. 
An extension through age 32 is generally a bad idea for a player and even a worse idea for a catcher.  At age 30, Contreras could get a 4 or 5 year free agent deal.  At 32 he is more likely to be going year to year.  
But if he is willing, an extension doesn’t preclude trading him later so the Brewers should consider it.  

why would you ever want to trade him after extending him?  These are the ideas of a fanbase who is just to used to losing. I think the entire Brewers fanbase needs to chance the way they look at the Brewers or we will never win anything ever.   

[Brewcrew82]

I think we've found William Contreras' number one fan. 

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/12/2024 at 5:24 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd trade Contreras, but not until Quero has started sharing catching duties with him and proven he is up to the task. Could happen this season. Next season a more likely proposition. Which brings us to the 2025-2026 offseason where Contreras will have 2 years of control left. That's a nice sweet spot. 

I think you should stop watching Brewers baseball and pick up with the Cubs or the Cardinals .    the Brewers will always loose if this is how the fans believe baseball must be played in 2024.   You do not trade away your best players every single season to hope you score on prospects who might someday be worth it,   William IS the best catcher in baseball and replacing best players with prospects will neve win a championship no matter how many times you do it.  You win with great players.   You loose when you get rid of your best players.  

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, jesusoftheapes said:

I think you should stop watching Brewers baseball and pick up with the Cubs or the Cardinals .    the Brewers will always loose if this is how the fans believe baseball must be played in 2024.   You do not trade away your best players every single season to hope you score on prospects who might someday be worth it,   William IS the best catcher in baseball and replacing best players with prospects will neve win a championship no matter how many times you do it.  You win with great players.   You loose when you get rid of your best players.  

I think you have a lighter understanding of how the Brewers have and must operate under the parameters of MLB's existing financial structure. Don't tell me what team to root for. 

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/12/2024 at 6:44 PM, BrewerFan said:

Adames is a year away and we've got multiple options to replace him. 

I see the rationale in extending Adames. He's SUCH a huge part of the personality of this team, keeping them loose, etc...but I don't think it's worth the upside to extend him now. I think you're looking at 6/150 to keep this version of Adames. I come out on the "extend them now," side up until arbitration, then see where you're at and once a high-level player has just a year or even two left, my own opinion moves towards trade and getting assets for him(as they did with Burnes).

There's certainly not the risk with a SS vs a Pitcher, but I still don't see the upside there.

 

If we really cared about a power-hitting SS...we signed Chourio as a SS. I'm just sayin'....

Chouiro is no shortstop.   This thread is not about Adames it is about William and his career here.  I would love to see the updated topic spoken of after William now looks like a guy who is probably the best in the entire MLB .  

[BrewerFan]

20 minutes ago, jesusoftheapes said:

What you just said is weird and wrong.    William is 26 .  He is the best player at catcher in the MLB today and he is going to get better not worse and everything you just said about a catcher is weirdly incorrect .   It does not matter what position they play when they hit 350 constantly and are the most dangerous at bat the brewers have had since Yount or Molitor .   You do not trade away MVP hitters .  

None of this is remotely true.

1-He has not hit .350 consistently. He's done it over a small sample size this season.

2-He's an outstanding hitter. You DO remember Prince, Braun, the current guy who's on the team who was a late season injury away from B2B MVPs?

3-You really do sometimes have to trade away MVP hitters.

The Nats did it with Soto and they're set up to be a REALLY good team in the near future due to that ONE trade. If the Brewers could get 75% of that package? THAT is how the Brewers win.

 

Now I'd be for extending him...at the right price...that's usually not in the cards. So in the meantime, I'll be a fan of him and the Brewers...and bud, ease into this. You don't need to police who the "real" fans are or what teams they should root for. That's...weird and annoying. And the "how Baseball is played in 2024," I think @Brewcrew82 has a pretty good grasp of that. I'm guessing he'd LOVE an extension where the Brewers buy out Conretreas Arbitration years and then get a couple of team options. 

But it IS 2024 and the Brewers bring in quite literally hundreds of MILLIONS less than the larger market teams. 

So smaller market teams trading away elite players, ESPECIALLY when they have one of the top prospects in the game coming up right behind him, that is exactly how the game is played in 2024 for the likes of the Brewers. And they've managed to play that game pretty well. 

[BrewerFan]

12 minutes ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Chouiro is no shortstop.   This thread is not about Adames it is about William and his career here.  I would love to see the updated topic spoken of after William now looks like a guy who is probably the best in the entire MLB .  

Bud...you need to slow down.

BLUE=Sarcastic.

Chourio was signed as a SS. So it was SARCASTIC to suggest we move him back to SS to maximize his power.

2-Read the rest of the forum. This HAS been discussed...recently for that matter. There are conflicting reports about how willing he is to sign a contract. A report from last year suggested he was open to it. One from this year suggested he was not.

Either way, the game is more complicated than signing the guy who's hot right NOW(when their value has skyrocketed). I think you just need to relax, sit back, see how the forum operates a BIT. 

 

As for the blue, let me provide a good example of how it works. See where it says Sa next to the icon to underline it?
 
I use that and then say something like,'you are right...you have a really laid back and measured view of the Brewers that nobody else on here has. You should definitely be running the team.'

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we've found William Contreras' number one fan. 

Or is it Jacob Misiorowski's number one fan?

[jay87shot]

14 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

He is the MVP of the 2024 season  .  Now what are we waiting for ?

At this point he has been so good I doubt we get much of a discount signing him long term. That basically means we take all the risk and don't get much benefit. In my opinion an extension would be like 5/12/20/30 per every free agent year. If we just let his time run we probably might spend a few more million in arbitration and if we want to sign him come 2027 or so the price probably won't be way more than $30. For me the risk of signing a catcher long term just isn't worth the $10-20 we save now. I still would love to sign him but the risk needs to meet the reward.

On top of that my quote you used was from February a lot has happened since then.

[Bashopolis]

On 5/22/2024 at 6:12 AM, jesusoftheapes said:

What you just said is weird and wrong.    William is 26 .  He is the best player at catcher in the MLB today and he is going to get better not worse and everything you just said about a catcher is weirdly incorrect .   It does not matter what position they play when they hit 350 constantly and are the most dangerous at bat the brewers have had since Yount or Molitor .   You do not trade away MVP hitters .  

I’m not sure what is incorrect?  The Brewers currently have Contreras lockup pre-free agency until his age 30 season.  An extension would add years of control beyond this.  Being a catcher is the most physically demanding position.  You don’t see many catchers age 34 or older catching even 120 games a season.    
 

if Contreras is willing to be locked up through age 32 or 33 great.  But he probably won’t do it.  He likely wants to get a long term contract timed with when he can first hit free agency.  

what did I miss?