2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I am not sure a different manager is going to do all that much for the Reds.  EDLC is not a SS IMHO and should be moved to the OF.  India is not an IF and should be moved to the OF.  India being a poor defensive IF is the reason why the Reds have been having a hard time finding a trade partner as the other teams see India as an OF/DH type which brings his value down and the Reds want the trade value as though he is a IF. 

To be honest they probably need to get rid of their GM or move on from some of their players like India and get what they can in return.  They need an OF badly.  They could have fixed that this year by moving EDLC to the OF.  EDLC would be better defensively in CF or RF than he is at SS. 

Pitching could be incredible, though. They've already got Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, and Lowder in the majors, with Burns coming up behind them.

EDLC is already a 5/6 WAR player. They'll get McClain back. Steer is another solid piece.

Probably need Encarnacion-Strand and/or Marte to hit or grab some bats in FA, but I don't think they're that far off per se. 

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Probably need Encarnacion-Strand and/or Marte to hit or grab some bats in FA, but I don't think they're that far off per se. 

Not sure what they will be able to do in FA as they have Candelario who is dead weight at this point at $15mm per year for the next two years.  They would have to eat nearly all of that contract get rid of Candelario.  There is not much that they could do in FA that will be an improvement other than signing Soto but that is not happening. 

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not sure what they will be able to do in FA as they have Candelario who is dead weight at this point at $15mm per year for the next two years.  They would have to eat nearly all of that contract get rid of Candelario.  There is not much that they could do in FA that will be an improvement other than signing Soto but that is not happening. 

They could sign someone in the Santander, Hernandez, O'Neil tier. Kim would also be a good signing for them if they wanted to move EDLC.

[sveumrules]

Cots says the Reds have $50M in guarantees on the books for next year with no big ticket Arby’s guys lined up.

FanGraphs has their DH production bottom two in MLB, their 1B bottom four, and their OF bottom five.

If they were serious about surrounding EDLC & their young core with talent they could go out and sign two of Santander, Alonso, Teoscar or Walker and get payroll back to 2019/21 levels after two years of reduced spending running bottom five and three payrolls in 2023/24.

Same logic applies to the Pirates with Skenes. You wanna announce to your fans and the baseball world that you’re trying to win the NLC? Sign Adames plus one of those guys above.

[Baldkin]

Game 159, the team is about to win and go up a full game for the wild card with just three more games remaining. 

 

Then..... It happens. 

Happy anniversary. 

[Underachiever]

I lived in Cincinnati for 9 years. The Brewers were in the AL at the time, so I was a combo Brewers/Reds fan. Still have a rooting interest in the franchise. I am so surprised that they fired Bell, because they have a very conservative front office. The feeling at Redszone is that while Bell wasn't very good, he had little to work with, and the ownership is terrible as well. Not a lot of hope that they will make a hire to turn things around. There is a contingent that thinks Barry Larkin will come out of the booth to manage. I think that would be terrible, but the franchise loves them some hometown/legacy managers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I feel like the Reds have perpetually been in the "they'll be really good next year" approach for the last 4-5 seasons....lots of young talent, to be sure - but a mix of injuries, growing pains with some youngsters, a shaky bullpen throughout and then some core veterans getting too long in the tooth has prevented them from putting it all together.  The Reds just feel disjointed.

Also, I think their ballpark is a consistent problem to building around pitching, no matter how talented.  

[Underachiever]

26 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I feel like the Reds have perpetually been in the "they'll be really good next year" approach for the last 4-5 seasons....lots of young talent, to be sure - but a mix of injuries, growing pains with some youngsters, a shaky bullpen throughout and then some core veterans getting too long in the tooth has prevented them from putting it all together.  The Reds just feel disjointed.

Also, I think their ballpark is a consistent problem to building around pitching, no matter how talented.  

That point about the ballpark not helping is certainly true. It seems as if Cincinnati has missed the point about the use of the bullpen, especially when compared to MKE. I know, only Cleveland can favorably compare to the WPA the Brewers have gotten out of their bullpen, but a small-market team like CIN has to operate within those same margins to find success. 

[Frisbee Slider]

If the Cubs finish this season with 83 wins, just like last year, is it reasonable to conclude that Counsell provided zero wins above replacement level?

I appreciate this is an oversimplification. Just curious.

[Frisbee Slider]

I think the Cubs are capable of improving in 2025. My hypothesis is that it took quite a while for the players and new manager to develop chemistry..

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

If the Cubs finish this season with 83 wins, just like last year, is it reasonable to conclude that Counsell provided zero wins above replacement level?

I appreciate this is an oversimplification. Just curious.

Managers in baseball are overrated.  They have an impact but not as much as fans think they do.  Impact of a good manager is probably a +/- 3 games at best.

[Frisbee Slider]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Managers in baseball are overrated.  They have an impact but not as much as fans think they do.  Impact of a good manager is probably a +/- 3 games at best.

Would you subjectively say Counsell’s impact was zero wins over replacement level in 2024?

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Would you subjectively say Counsell’s impact was zero wins over replacement level in 2024?

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Pythag says the Cubs had played five wins below their run differential entering today.

Give the Cubs five extra wins and they are right in the thick of the Wild Card race.

 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Would you subjectively say Counsell’s impact was zero wins over replacement level in 2024?

Impossible to say without going through every game and looking at his decisions and then knowing who was or wasn’t available.  At best he probably won or lost 1-3 games for the Cubs.  It is just so difficult to pin down a manager’s impact on a season.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Pythag says the Cubs had played five wins below their run differential entering today.

 

 Cubs were seven games worse than pythag in 2023. I guess Counsell underperformed less than Ross in 2024.

[gregmag]

Katie Woo, a smart writer when she isn’t being an unbearable homer, has an extensive article at The Athletic (paywall) about the Cardinals’ organizational failings. Basic thrust is that they’ve cheaped out for years on player development in favor of spending on the MLB roster, causing their prospects to be underprepared when they get to St. Louis.  Here’s a summary:

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/anonymous-cardinals-sources-flame-organization-in-brutal-post-elimination-takedown-01j8swe0d40x

 

[Brewcrew82]

 

[nate82]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

He looks absolutely done at least as a regular.

[HarryDoyle]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Take it at face value because this is Bob Nightengale reporting this, but he's saying the Brewers are monitoring the situation and if the Cardinals do not show interest in re-signing him, the Brewers believe there's still plenty of room for him next season.

[young guns]

Honestly I can see them doing it if Hoskins opts out.  If he doesn't then I don't see it.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, young guns said:

Honestly I can see them doing it if Hoskins opts out.  If he doesn't then I don't see it.

Agreed

[Frisbee Slider]

35 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Agreed

What is the scenario where Hoskins decides to opt out?

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What is the scenario where Hoskins decides to opt out?

I couldn't tell you that one because I don't think he'd make enough money in FA to justify opting out. Maybe if he just didn't enjoy his time in Milwaukee? Maybe if he has a really big postseason?

[young guns]

50 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What is the scenario where Hoskins decides to opt out?

There may not currently be one, but you never know.

[Jopal78]

On 9/28/2024 at 3:54 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

If the Cubs finish this season with 83 wins, just like last year, is it reasonable to conclude that Counsell provided zero wins above replacement level?

I appreciate this is an oversimplification. Just curious.

Arguably the Cubs had better talent (Shota, Busch, etc.) in ‘24 than under Ross in ‘23. So to that end you could argue Counsell “got less out of more”. 
 

Certainly not the way Hoyer wanted it to go when he and Counsell sunk their knives into a World Series hero’s back.