Brewers Re-sign Brandon Woodruff - Two Year Deal per Heyman

[benji]

Problem with Woody is his age. In that study the younger pitchers did better. Urias from the Dodgers had something similar as did Ashby. Let see how Ashby does. Urias obvious returned at a high level and will be out of baseball for other reasons. 

 

[Sixtolezcano]

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Then look at Kyle Hendricks. He came back...or Julio Urias. He also came back and was elite.

I tend to trust the Brewers with Woody. They don't just throw around money and their recent history with pitchers should give them the benefit of the doubt. 

There are always aberrations to the majority of cases, but in the vast preponderance of severe shoulder injuries pitchers who do throw again never come close their pre-injury levels. In all likelihood Woody will never return to the levels we saw between 2020-2023 in 2025 when he will be 33 years old. A more believable scenario will be as a 4th or 5th starter.
I’m not sure which Brewer pitchers you are referring to who have recovered from serious shoulder injuries, Higuera, Nelson, Vukovich, Matt Bush? Oh, BTW how much money did the Brewers throw at Woodruff? I hadn’t heard about that.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

There are always aberrations to the majority of cases, but in the vast preponderance of severe shoulder injuries pitchers who do throw again never come close their pre-injury levels. In all likelihood Woody will never return to the levels we saw between 2020-2023 in 2025 when he will be 33 years old. A more believable scenario will be as a 4th or 5th starter.
I’m not sure which Brewer pitchers you are referring to who have recovered from serious shoulder injuries, Higuera, Nelson, Vukovich, Matt Bush? Oh, BTW how much money did the Brewers throw at Woodruff? I hadn’t heard about that.

Sure, and Woodruff healthy was a #1, multi-year All Star who got Cy Young votes. If he comes back 50% of what he was that probably still makes him a #3-#4. 
 

For sure, the Brewers are taking a gamble, and they even got burned the last time when they paid Jimmy Nelson for two years after he ostensibly suffered a career ending injury. BUT since the new CBA even bad pitchers like Jack Flaherty are getting $15 million per season now, so there isn’t a whole lot of downside in rolling the bones on Woodruff

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sure, and Woodruff healthy was a #1, multi-year All Star who got Cy Young votes. If he comes back 50% of what he was that probably still makes him a #3-#4. 
 

 

C'mon man...

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

C'mon man...

I don’t know what you want me to tell you. Look at the comps, he was amongst the best in the game when healthy. Then look at the trash that trots out there for most teams in that 4 spot: Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Stephen Matz, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, etc etc.

I think you either under appreciate how good Woodruff is or don’t realize the crap that 25+ teams fill the back half of their rotation with.   

 

[homer]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know what you want me to tell you. Look at the comps, he was amongst the best in the game when healthy. Then look at the trash that trots out there for most teams in that 4 spot: Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Stephen Matz, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, etc etc.

I think you either under appreciate how good Woodruff is or don’t realize the crap that 25+ teams fill the back half of their rotation with.   

 

I think you are underestimating what 50% worse would be.

[Jopal78]

3 minutes ago, homer said:

I think you are underestimating what 50% worse would be.

That’s the thing, nobody knows. but a career WHIP of 1.04 gives a lot of room for his performance to backslide 

[Pugger]

20 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

The fact that it took him this long to sign somewhere and it's back in Milwaukee tells me his shoulder is pretty much toast. That the Dodgers or Yankees or someone else with money to throw around didn't sign him already has to mean the medicals are bad, bad.

If he most likely won't be pitching until 2025 and he is on the wrong side of 30 I can see why other teams are not interested.  

[Pugger]

3 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

We did this with Woody, but passed on Jimmy and Kneble who both had similar injuries right? So maybe us paying Woody is a sign they think he looks good so far. Yep trust the Crew right now!

Plus they may have learned from past mistakes?

[Ignitor 4ever]

I like the signing and I do not think that nobody else signed him shows that his arm is shot.  It may just be that the market is slow (as it has been for even healthy pitchers) and Woody decided he no longer wanted to wait.  I still have not seen details of the contract, but I think the Brewers history shows they are not going to throw money around at injury risks.  I would say re-signing Woody is a calculated gamble.  He has shown the ability to put in the work to come back from a shoulder injury previously.  This is the kind of gamble the Brewers almost need to take if they can get a decent price because, if it works out, 2025 looks very promising.

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

We did this with Woody, but passed on Jimmy and Kneble who both had similar injuries right? So maybe us paying Woody is a sign they think he looks good so far. Yep trust the Crew right now!

You have it backwards. They kept Jimmy Nelson for all of ‘18 when he was rehabbing and then all of ‘19 when he was injured/ineffective/rehabbing, then cut bait.

Knebel missed all of 2019 with Tommy John. In ‘20 Knebel pitched 15 of the 60 games in Covid Ball and was traded to LA  after stinking it up. Then, he missed three 3+ months with the Dodgers after suffering another injury. 
 

If anything, the past it shows the Brewers are patient with their premium arms and have generally known when to cut them loose. 

 

 

[folly412]

It's making a bet he can have some productivity in 2025. I can't think of a player more worth betting on than Woody.

[RobDeer 45]

Good for Woody!  Good for the Brewers!  My hope is this is where he wanted to be to rehab.  We can speculate all we want but we don't know what happened and why he signed.  We also don't know what he will be when he comes back.  Odds aren't great for him but I'm wishing him the best!

[AKCheesehead]

Interesting seeing the mentions of Knebel here, but no mentions of the fact that in 2022 he ended up with a tear in his capsule.  Not sure how exact of a comparison Knebel's 2022 injury is to Woodruff's in terms of severity but they are both capsule tears.  Has anyone heard if Bird Dog's going to try a comeback or is he just done?

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

There are always aberrations to the majority of cases, but in the vast preponderance of severe shoulder injuries pitchers who do throw again never come close their pre-injury levels. In all likelihood Woody will never return to the levels we saw between 2020-2023 in 2025 when he will be 33 years old. A more believable scenario will be as a 4th or 5th starter.
I’m not sure which Brewer pitchers you are referring to who have recovered from serious shoulder injuries, Higuera, Nelson, Vukovich, Matt Bush? Oh, BTW how much money did the Brewers throw at Woodruff? I hadn’t heard about that.

Yes...when talking about the Brewers and their ability to develop pitching, I was CLEARLY talking about the 1980s and now the current iteration of the Brewers with their pitching lab are recent history.  Pete Vukovich? That's...really? Is there any attempt at an intellectually honest discussion on this topic or are we seriously comparing rehabbing pitchers in the 80s and their shoulder injuries with 2024? 

This is just silly and pointless. Questioning if he's going to come back is valid. Using Teddy Higuera and Pete Vuckovich just nonsensical. 

 

The "vast preponderance," of evidence would suggest capsular repair is becoming a much BETTER treated injury and the recovery rate is much higher than....say 40 years ago.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/

[Jopal78]

48 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

Interesting seeing the mentions of Knebel here, but no mentions of the fact that in 2022 he ended up with a tear in his capsule.  Not sure how exact of a comparison Knebel's 2022 injury is to Woodruff's in terms of severity but they are both capsule tears.  Has anyone heard if Bird Dog's going to try a comeback or is he just done?

White Sox NRI

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, Ignitor 4ever said:

I like the signing and I do not think that nobody else signed him shows that his arm is shot.  It may just be that the market is slow (as it has been for even healthy pitchers) and Woody decided he no longer wanted to wait.  I still have not seen details of the contract, but I think the Brewers history shows they are not going to throw money around at injury risks.  I would say re-signing Woody is a calculated gamble.  He has shown the ability to put in the work to come back from a shoulder injury previously.  This is the kind of gamble the Brewers almost need to take if they can get a decent price because, if it works out, 2025 looks very promising.

Well the Brewers would be the team with the most exposure to the depth of his injury...and they signed him.  Everyone else is going to get a summary by comparison. The $$ will show more about what the Brewers think about his risk than who did or didn't sign him.

[AKCheesehead]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

White Sox NRI

Thanks, I'd missed that.  Hope he makes it back and is effective.

[owbc]

19 hours ago, ARBrewerfan said:

So what if this was the plan all along?  Woodruff is a very smart player who obviously knows the business. He knew the Brewers couldn’t afford his contract and that they needed to non-tender him. He also knew the Brewers would need roster flexibility this offseason. Was there a handshake agreement to resign at a reasonable rate on the same day as players can be put on the 60 day?  Seems a little coincidental to me. 

This was always the most logical outcome, as most people seemed to have concluded on the earlier Woodruff thread. It just made too much sense for both sides. I wouldn't be surprised to learn he got other offers, but I'm not surprised that none of them were big enough to make it worth starting a new recovery regimen with a new team Plus the new team would have to do their own due diligence on his prognosis and come away from that confident enough to beat the Brewers' offer. 

[Sixtolezcano]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yes...when talking about the Brewers and their ability to develop pitching, I was CLEARLY talking about the 1980s and now the current iteration of the Brewers with their pitching lab are recent history.  Pete Vukovich? That's...really? Is there any attempt at an intellectually honest discussion on this topic or are we seriously comparing rehabbing pitchers in the 80s and their shoulder injuries with 2024? 

This is just silly and pointless. Questioning if he's going to come back is valid. Using Teddy Higuera and Pete Vuckovich just nonsensical. 

 

The "vast preponderance," of evidence would suggest capsular repair is becoming a much BETTER treated injury and the recovery rate is much higher than....say 40 years ago.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/

Intellectually? That’s hilarious coming from your previous post. You cherry pick TWO pitchers that had SOME success, one almost 10 years younger than Woodruff and the other just one year back, with meh results. Yet you failed to mention the vast majority of pitchers that are never even close to where they were pre-surgery.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Intellectually? That’s hilarious coming from your previous post. You cherry pick TWO pitchers that had SOME success, one almost 10 years younger than Woodruff and the other just one year back, with meh results. Yet you failed to mention the vast majority of pitchers that are never even close to where they were pre-surgery.

Yes, I used more recent examples rather than going back to the Reagan administration.

I also cited a more recent study of these exact types of injuries. Not just using ALL shoulder injuries...so not comparing Nelson's shoulder reconstructive shoulder surgery as it wasn't even slightly similar. 

And Kyle Hendricks had "meh results?" Career FIP of 3.80. Post capsular injury, 3.81.

If the question is returning close to his previous performance, I'd say that's a pretty good example. But I guess we could throw Sandy Koufax into the equation as well😁

I mean, that was 18 years removed from Vukovich...as opposed to 40 years.

[rickh150]

Surprised Brewers did this…. But also surprised that I got excited he was back potentially for 2025. I also guess there is a club option for 2026 with a buyout attached. 

[MVP2110]

6 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Surprised Brewers did this…. But also surprised that I got excited he was back potentially for 2025. I also guess there is a club option for 2026 with a buyout attached. 

Where did you see the club option stuff?

[monty57]

20 hours ago, homer said:

I think you are underestimating what 50% worse would be.

I guess it could mean that he'd have something like a 47 MPH fastball, or it could mean that he'd have an ERA of 3.42 (2.28 2023 ERA * 1.5). 

Depends on which way you want to look at it.

[MrTPlush]

45 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I guess it could mean that he'd have something like a 47 MPH fastball, or it could mean that he'd have an ERA of 3.42 (2.28 2023 ERA * 1.5). 

Depends on which way you want to look at it.

Post-Surgery Pitch Mix:

Eephus