Brewers Re-sign Brandon Woodruff - Two Year Deal per Heyman

[ClosetBrewerFan]

As expected, Woodruff is now on the 60 day IL per the transaction page of the Brewers website.

[SRB]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

I don't remember who, but someone here thought he would get 15 to 17 million in 2025.  lol

I'm not sure anyone else agreed, but that was pretty far off the mark.   No one predicted the 26 mutual buyout though.

Uhh.. isn't that almost exactly what he got? Except structured to defer most of the $ to 2026.

[SRB]

Before anyone complains about guaranteeing $17.5 million to Woodruff for one season (2025) because of the injury risk, a reminder that since becoming a full-time SP in 2019 he ranks:

ERA - #4 overall

FIP - #8 overall

fWAR - #15 overall

He's a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball when healthy who just turned 31. If not for the shoulder injury, on a one year free agent deal he'd be looking at in excess of $40-50 million.

[TURBO]

21 minutes ago, SRB said:

Uhh.. isn't that almost exactly what he got? Except structured to defer most of the $ to 2026.

The post I am referring to said something like 14-17 million in 2025, that was on top of a salary for 2024.  Too lazy to go find it.

The current deal has a mutual option for 2026, which was unknown at the time.

[jay87shot]

I like this, the 10 million in 2026 is interesting. Tyler Mahle got 2/21 so Woody 2/17.5 is a great deal assuming he recovers to an acceptable level.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, Patrick425 said:

Does anyone have any idea on how often mutual options get exercised? Seems like the option year comes, the contract is either going to be favorable to the team or the player, based on how he performed the previous year.  So, I feel like it’s rare for both sides to opt "yes". 

Aramis Ramirez’s 4th season with the Brewers was a mutual option which both sides exercised. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

The post I am referring to said something like 14-17 million in 2025, that was on top of a salary for 2024.  Too lazy to go find it.

The current deal has a mutual option for 2026, which was unknown at the time.

So this is puzzling to me….if Woodruff wants out in 2026, he gets the 10 million deferred anyways from the team AND then he can sign elsewhere too?  I doubt it is the following, but I hope it’s like this:….both opt in…he plays 2026 for 20 million; brewers opt in, Woodruff opts out….he is a FA in 2026 with Brewers off the hook; Brewers opt out, Woodruff gets 10 million. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

Before anyone complains about guaranteeing $17.5 million to Woodruff for one season (2025) because of the injury risk, a reminder that since becoming a full-time SP in 2019 he ranks:

ERA - #4 overall

FIP - #8 overall

fWAR - #15 overall

He's a top 10 pitcher in all of baseball when healthy who just turned 31. If not for the shoulder injury, on a one year free agent deal he'd be looking at in excess of $40-50 million.

If not for that shoulder injury…

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

The post I am referring to said something like 14-17 million in 2025, that was on top of a salary for 2024.  Too lazy to go find it.

The current deal has a mutual option for 2026, which was unknown at the time.

That Teddy Higuera deal is looking better.

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So this is puzzling to me….if Woodruff wants out in 2026, he gets the 10 million deferred anyways from the team AND then he can sign elsewhere too?  I doubt it is the following, but I hope it’s like this:….both opt in…he plays 2026 for 20 million; brewers opt in, Woodruff opts out….he is a FA in 2026 with Brewers off the hook; Brewers opt out, Woodruff gets 10 million. 

The buyout on mutual options are nothing more than a tool to spread a guarantee out over multiple seasons.  
 

If Woodruff declines his half of the mutual option he gets $10 million from the Brewers and becomes a free agent. if he accepts his half, and the Brewers decline theirs he gets the 10 mil and is a free agent. 

[MrTPlush]

The only way Woodruff returns in 2026 is if he ends up competent but very back end type starter in 2025. Like bad enough he is only worth like 2/$15mil on the open market MAX. 
 

At that point you could find some odd mutual interest where the Brewers figure $10mil over one year isn’t a big deal with some upside and Woodruff feels he was shaking off rust and believes he can be mid rotation or better in 2026 to parlay into a much more lucrative long term deal.

It would take the perfect storm of production (not too much not too less), Brewers in a good mood, and Woodruff in a good mood. It isn’t impossible, but it takes some mental gymnastics to even come up with a theory. Even then, it doesn’t change the fact the deal is set up this way to simply space out the money and neither side has any expectation that the mutual option will actually come into play.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

The only way Woodruff returns in 2026 is if he ends up competent but very back end type starter in 2025. Like bad enough he is only worth like 2/$15mil on the open market MAX. 
 

At that point you could find some odd mutual interest where the Brewers figure $10mil over one year isn’t a big deal with some upside and Woodruff feels he was shaking off rust and believes he can be mid rotation or better in 2026 to parlay into a much more lucrative long term deal.

It would take the perfect storm of production (not too much not too less), Brewers in a good mood, and Woodruff in a good mood. It isn’t impossible, but it takes some mental gymnastics to even come up with a theory. Even then, it doesn’t change the fact the deal is set up this way to simply space out the money and neither side has any expectation that the mutual option will actually come into play.

I think it's be some situation where he's not completely healthy or suffers some setbacks in '25 and has a season...similar to this year(though not as effective). 

I could envision a mutual option being picked up in that scenario...still probably not. It's a very thin needle to thread. If Woody comes back and is somehow dominant next year, it's more likely it'd be rolled into an extension or they'd let him walk and offer the QO(meaning he declines). That's if he comes back. 

It's an expensive roll of the dice, but...on the other hand, it's one year of Yellich or basically Cain. 

[monty57]

Some people are thinking too much into this.

The Brewers are paying $2.5M for Woodruff to rehab and recover this year. There is a small chance he'll pitch, but he probably won't.

They are paying him $15M to pitch in 2025. $5M of that will be paid in 2025 and $10M will be deferred to 2026.

There is almost no chance the mutual option is picked up. He will get his $10M buyout and sign a new deal somewhere.

The Brewers are expecting one year of production (2025) for $17.5M total, paid over three years.

[Thurston Fluff]

21 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Some people are thinking too much into this.

The Brewers are paying $2.5M for Woodruff to rehab and recover this year. There is a small chance he'll pitch, but he probably won't.

They are paying him $15M to pitch in 2025. $5M of that will be paid in 2025 and $10M will be deferred to 2026.

There is almost no chance the mutual option is picked up. He will get his $10M buyout and sign a new deal somewhere.

The Brewers are expecting one year of production (2025) for $17.5M total, paid over three years.

He'd get $27.5M with the buyout.

[wildcat2237]

My opinion: 

Gross. Guaranting $17 million to a guy who may never be effective again is a risk I would not have taken. 

I like Woodruff(unlike Burnes) and I hope he is an ace in 2025. 

However, I hate the deal. 

Would much rather have spent $15 million a decent f/a in 2025. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

20 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Some people are thinking too much into this.

The Brewers are paying $2.5M for Woodruff to rehab and recover this year. There is a small chance he'll pitch, but he probably won't.

They are paying him $15M to pitch in 2025. $5M of that will be paid in 2025 and $10M will be deferred to 2026.

There is almost no chance the mutual option is picked up. He will get his $10M buyout and sign a new deal somewhere.

The Brewers are expecting one year of production (2025) for $17.5M total, paid over three years.

Yup. And this seems prudent to me. Who knows what $10 million will mean in 2026. If Woody is worth $15 million in 2025, you only have to commit $5 million and have trade deadline flexibility. If he's not, you defer the back two-thirds to the next year, when it means less. If Woody is really good, but the team is falling out of it, you might also have some trade possibilities.

[wildcat2237]

3 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yup. And this seems prudent to me. Who knows what $10 million will mean in 2026. If Woody is worth $15 million in 2025, you only have to commit $5 million and have trade deadline flexibility. If he's not, you defer the back two-thirds to the next year, when it means less. If Woody is really good, but the team is falling out of it, you might also have some trade possibilities.

There is a full no trade clause. So no go on a 2025 deadline trade. Makes the deal even worse. 

See here: https://apnews.com/article/milwaukee-brewers-brandon-woodruff-e870aed981ca1f049d87b0ae339038e6.

"Woodruff will receive $2.5 million this year and $5 million in 2025. The deal includes a $20 million mutual option for 2026 with a $10 million buyout, half payable on Jan. 15, 2026, and the remainder on July 15, 2026. The contract also grants Woodruff a full no-trade provision and a hotel suite on road trips."

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Forgot about the no-trade thanks. Yeah. I still don't mind committing 17.5 million to a guy who might be very useful in 2025.

[monty57]

27 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

He'd get $27.5M with the buyout.

No, it's $2.5M in 2024, $5M in 2025, $10M buyout in 2026. 

Total is $17.5M paid out over three years. 

The only way he gets more is if both sides agree on the mutual $20M in 2026, which would then make it $27.5, but mutual options are rarely exercised. Odds are heavily in favor of the buyout happening.

[Thurston Fluff]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

No, it's $2.5M in 2024, $5M in 2025, $10M buyout in 2026. 

Total is $17.5M paid out over three years. 

The only way he gets more is if both sides agree on the mutual $20M in 2026, which would then make it $27.5, but mutual options are rarely exercised. Odds are heavily in favor of the buyout happening.

Yea, may bad. I  saw the numbers and failed to see they added the buyout into the amount he'd get.

[SF70]

6 hours ago, wildcat2237 said:

There is a full no trade clause. So no go on a 2025 deadline trade. Makes the deal even worse. 

See here: https://apnews.com/article/milwaukee-brewers-brandon-woodruff-e870aed981ca1f049d87b0ae339038e6.

"Woodruff will receive $2.5 million this year and $5 million in 2025. The deal includes a $20 million mutual option for 2026 with a $10 million buyout, half payable on Jan. 15, 2026, and the remainder on July 15, 2026. The contract also grants Woodruff a full no-trade provision and a hotel suite on road trips."

The comp pick potential makes it a good deal. That comp pick is worth $10M+ in SV just of itself. Love this FO.

[wildcat2237]

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, however, I dont see a comp pick likely to happen. I see the scenarios as follows: 

1. Woodruff stinks in 2024-2025. Brewers decline mutual 2026 option. Woodruff becomes FA after 2025. 

2. Woodruff pitches well in 2024-2025. Woodruff declines mutual 2026 option. Woodruff becomes FA after 2025. 

3. Woodruff sucks in 2024-2025 and the Brewers release him at some point after coming off the IL. Woodruff is FA. 

Then, here is how a comp pick happens:

4. Woodruff is good but not great in 2024-2025. Both sides exercise 2026 mutual option. Woodruff is good in 2026. Brewers make QO. Woodruff declines and becomes FA. Brewers get comp pick. 

I would put the chances of scenario 4 under 1%. 

Somebody let me know if I am off base? 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, wildcat2237 said:

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, however, I dont see a comp pick likely to happen. I see the scenarios as follows: 

1. Woodruff stinks in 2024-2025. Brewers decline mutual 2026 option. Woodruff becomes FA after 2025. 

2. Woodruff pitches well in 2024-2025. Woodruff declins mutual 2026 option. Woodruff become FA after 2025. 

3. Woodruff sucks in 2024-2025 and the Brewers release him at some point after coming off the IL. Woodruff is FA. 

Then, here is how a comp pick happens:

4. Woodruff if good but not great in 204-2025. Both sides excerice 2026 mutual option. Woodruff is good in 2026. Brewers make QO. Woodruff declines and become FA. Brewers get comp pick. 

I would put the chances of scenario 4 under 1%. 

Somebody let me know if I am off base? 

Brewers could put a QO on Woodruff in scenario 2.

[wildcat2237]

13 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers could put a QO on Woodruff in scenario 2.

Ah, thanks. I didnt know it worked that way. I thought if both sides delcine a mutual option the player is just an FA automatically. 

If thats the case, the deal is slightly better. However, it requires Woody to get back close to his prior self (which I see unlikely). 

Still dislike the deal. But slightly less. 

[MrTPlush]

The deal is terrible from a financial standpoint for performance. If everyone voted on their realistic ceiling for Woodruff in 2025 they would probably tab that around his $17.5mil price tag. Considering the massive risk here and the likelihood he doesn't manage that ceiling, the deal is pretty terrible. We would be lucky to break even.

HOWEVER

#1 This deal is certainly beyond money. Players are doing circles around the spring training complex about how happy they are to just have Woodruff around. He is an A+ personality to have around...especially around younger players. Fans are mostly ecstatic to pay a guy to collect a check in the dugout. After an offseason that saw Counsell leaving and Burnes being traded...I wouldn't underrate the importance of this.

#2 The money is kind of irrelevant from a payroll standpoint. It is the equivalent to the Dodgers overpaying some star. The deal always sucks in the end, but they don't care, their payroll can absorb it like it is nothing. The Brewers payroll the upcoming years is going to absorb this money like it is nothing. If this was like 2019, this would be a different story...but our payroll is in a very different situation these days. The alternative here is spending the money on nothing and Attanasio investing it into a soccer team or something.