2024 Season Predictions

[Brewcrew82]

I know we have a win thread already, but why not have a thread encompassing all of our predictions for the upcoming season? I'll start with mine. Feel free to add other categories if you wish.

Record: 84-78 (2nd NL Central) 

MVP: Adames (first half-traded at deadline), Chourio (entire season)

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Chourio

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Adames, Contreras 

Breakout Player(s): Frelick, Ortiz, Hall, Wilken (called up in 2nd half) 

Disappointment(s): Mitchell, Turang, Ross, Payamps

Bold Prediction(s): Chourio starts relatively slow but has a white hot finish to the season to edge out Yamamoto for NL ROY. Adames places in the top 10 of NL MVP voting as he pairs his best offensive season since 2021 with his elite defense of the last two years, yet doesn't finish the season with the Brewers. 

[TURBO]

I just don't think that if we are still in a playoff hunt at the deadline, that we trade Adames at that time.  If he is playing as great as you say, no way we unload him for prospects with the chance of another playoff appearance.  If we are out of it, then yes, that could happen.

If he is stinking, and we aren't in the hunt, I can see him getting traded, but if he is stinking, I doubt anyone wants him anyway.

[RobDeer 45]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I know we have a win thread already, but why not have a thread encompassing all of our predictions for the upcoming season? I'll start with mine. Feel free to add other categories if you wish.

Record: 84-78 (2nd NL Central) 

MVP: Adames (first half-traded at deadline), Chourio (entire season)

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Chourio

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Adames, Contreras 

Breakout Player(s): Frelick, Ortiz, Hall, Wilken (called up in 2nd half) 

Disappointment(s): Mitchell, Turang, Ross, Payamps

Bold Prediction(s): Chourio starts relatively slow but has a white hot finish to the season to edge out Yamamoto for NL ROY. Adames places in the top 10 of NL MVP voting as he pairs his best offensive season since 2021 with his elite defense of the last two years, yet doesn't finish the season with the Brewers. 

I was just thinking about these categories yesterday and wanting to get them on the board.  I can't remember what all the categories we had in year's past but this seems close.  I'll get mine down soon!  Thanks for posting.

[wiguy94]

Record: 82-80, 3rd in Central

MVP: Adames 

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Hall

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Adames, Contreras, Peralta 

Breakout Player(s): Hall, Rea, Hudson, Frelick

Disappointment(s): Chourio

Bold Prediction(s): Chourio gets optioned to AAA at some point in the season

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

I just don't think that if we are still in a playoff hunt at the deadline, that we trade Adames at that time.  If he is playing as great as you say, no way we unload him for prospects with the chance of another playoff appearance.  If we are out of it, then yes, that could happen.

If he is stinking, and we aren't in the hunt, I can see him getting traded, but if he is stinking, I doubt anyone wants him anyway.

I have the Brewers starting slow but reaching their stride in August/September. So, I don't think they'll be in a position where they'll rebuff all offers for Adames, who I have putting up MVP numbers and being in high demand. Plus, I think Ortiz and Wilken are going to really be pushing to take over at SS and 3B. Would simply be more of the counterbuilding they've engaged in this offseason and when they traded Hader obviously. They'll be able to recoup more value than just a comp pick. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Record: 82-80, 3rd in Central

MVP: Adames 

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Hall

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Adames, Contreras, Peralta 

Breakout Player(s): Hall, Rea, Hudson, Frelick

Disappointment(s): Chourio

Bold Prediction(s): Chourio gets optioned to AAA at some point in the season

If that's how it plays out with Chourio, you're going to have really depressed fanbase.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If that's how it plays out with Chourio, you're going to have really depressed fanbase.

I think many have their expectations way too high for Chourio in 2024. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but he wasn't special (relative to the rest of the league) in AA last year outside of 1 month where they switched from tacky balls to normal baseballs.  

Monthly wRC+ in AA

April - 85 wRC+

May - 96 wRC+

June - 91 wRC+

July with tacky baseball - 49 wRC+ (only 4 games)

July with normal baseball - 244 wRC+

August - 89 wRC+

September - 111 wRC+

Was that offensive spike because pitchers were readjusting to a normal baseball and leaving pitches over the heart of the plate more? Yes for a teenager in AA Chourio was fantastic last year, but how ready is he for the MLB? He had a solid ST, but I think 8 or 9 of his 20 hits this ST were infield hits which is a pretty ridiculous amount.

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think many have their expectations way too high for Chourio in 2024. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but he wasn't special (relative to the rest of the league) in AA last year outside of 1 month where they switched from tacky balls to normal baseballs.  

Monthly wRC+ in AA

April - 85 wRC+

May - 96 wRC+

June - 91 wRC+

July with tacky baseball - 49 wRC+ (only 4 games)

July with normal baseball - 244 wRC+

August - 89 wRC+

September - 111 wRC+

Was that offensive spike because pitchers were readjusting to a normal baseball and leaving pitches over the heart of the plate more? Yes for a teenager in AA Chourio was fantastic last year, but how ready is he for the MLB? He had a solid ST, but I think 8 or 9 of his 20 hits this ST were infield hits which is a pretty ridiculous amount.

I agree he'll probably start out relatively slow as he did in AA last year, but dude still put up only the 5th 20/40 season for a teenager of the modern era. Also, the 112 wRC+ with the half-season tacked ball is still better than what Giancarlo Stanton, for example, put up in AA at age 19 and he went on to have a big rookie year. 

Thing that matters most to me by far about his ST (and ST stats in general) is his K%, which was at 19%. That's exceptional, especially compared to other top prospects who had big springs like Langford (24%) or Holliday (31%), and a major sign he's not going to get overwhelmed by big league pitching out of the gates.

I still think he's going to start out slow because despite the superb BTB he's still learning to only go after pitches he can do damage with and thereby minimize some of the weak contact you saw, but once he figures that out he should take off. 

I think a reasonable floor is Bobby Witt Jr's rookie season with a reasonable ceiling being Julio Rodriguez's rookie season. Split the difference and you've got somewhere right where he was last year and then this year in spring training with a 105-120 wRC+. I'm personally on the higher end combined with his baserunning value. Hence my ROTY prediction. 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I agree he'll probably start out relatively slow as he did in AA last year, but dude still put up only the 5th 20/40 season for a teenager of the modern era. Also, the 112 wRC+ with the half-season tacked ball is still better than what Giancarlo Stanton, for example, put up in AA at age 19 and he went on to have a big rookie year. 

Thing that matters most to me by far about his ST (and ST stats in general) is his K%, which was at 19%. That's exceptional, especially compared to other top prospects who had big springs like Langford (24%) or Holliday (31%), and a major sign he's not going to get overwhelmed by big league pitching out of the gates.

I still think he's going to start out slow because despite the superb BTB he's still learning to only go after pitches he can do damage with and thereby minimize some of the weak contact you saw, but once he figures that out he should take off. 

I think a reasonable floor is Bobby Witt Jr's rookie season with a reasonable ceiling being Julio Rodriguez's rookie season. Split the difference and you've got somewhere right where he was last year and then this year in spring training with a 105-120 wRC+. I'm personally on the higher end combined with his baserunning value. Hence my ROTY prediction. 

Yeah that floor is way too high to me.

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah that floor is way too high to me.

I think the evidence points to his floor being somewhere around there, maybe a bit lower I'll grant you.

Even when he was "struggling" in AA last year his wRC+ hovered around 90. 

And that's as bad as he's struggled anywhere professionally. I get the big leagues is a totally different monster, but he hasn't been K'ing at the 30% rate that would suggest significantly below that level of struggle to like Wiemer territory.

[wiguy94]

36 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think the evidence points to his floor being somewhere around there, maybe a bit lower I'll grant you.

Even when he was "struggling" in AA last year his wRC+ hovered around 90. 

And that's as bad as he's struggled anywhere professionally. I get the big leagues is a totally different monster, but he hasn't been K'ing at the 30% rate that would suggest significantly below that level of struggle to like Wiemer territory.

What evidence?

Bobby Witt had a 143 wRC+ between AA and AAA the year before his debut which is significantly better than Chourio the year before his debut.

Fangraphs, Steamer, ZiPS, THE BAT, Pecota all have Chourio's projections for 2024 below what you are considering his floor. ZiPS 20th percentile on Chourio is 78 OPS+

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

What evidence?

Bobby Witt had a 143 wRC+ between AA and AAA the year before his debut which is significantly better than Chourio the year before his debut.

Fangraphs, Steamer, ZiPS, THE BAT, Pecota all have Chourio's projections for 2024 below what you are considering his floor. ZiPS 20th percentile on Chourio is 78 OPS+

Projections are also notoriously conservative on rookies....

I've already granted that his rookie floor is probably lower than Bobby Witt Jr's, but there isn't much to suggest we're looking at Joey Wiemer type struggles when he's never struggled that bad anywhere and has been K'ing less than 20% of the time in the minors and 70 ABs of big league ST. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Projections are also notoriously conservative on rookies....

Well that's not necessarily true. There are plenty of rookies with better projections than Chourio. Langford, Carter, Holliday, Caminero are all projected to be comfortably better than Chourio in 2024.

Chourio's highest projection is a 93 wRC+. 

Langford's is 124 wRC+.

Carter's is 113 wRC+.

Holliday's is 108 wRC+.

Caminero's is 115 wRC+.

They just don't like Chourio not all rookies.

[YodaDaSoda]

Record: 77-85 (3rd NL Central) 

MVP: Yelich (Major bounceback, goes 30-30)

Cy Young: Peralta

ROY: Chourio

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Contreras, Yelich, Peralta 

Breakout Player(s): Frelick, Turang, Hall

Disappointment(s): Mitchell, Ross, Payamps, Sanchez

Bold Prediction(s): Yelich has his best season since 2019, going 30-30 and placing top 10 in NL MVP voting 

[owbc]

Record: 88-74 (1st NL Central) 

MVP: Contreras

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Chourio

Top Newcomer: Chourio

All Star(s): Contreras, Adames

Breakout Player(s): Chourio, Uribe

Disappointment(s): Hoskins (serviceable, but sub-.800 OPS)

Bold Prediction(s): 88 wins is pretty bold and a lot needs to go right, but we're in a weak division and we just have to repeat what we did last year. No more serious injuries to key pieces. Chourio follows a Julio Rodriguez trajectory and is the best player on the team by the ASB. The core of Yelich, Adames, and Contreras all perform. We have the bats, we have young guys with upside, and we have a strong record of finding and developing pitching. Lets go. 

[Lathund]

Record: 84-78 (2nd NL Central) 

MVP: Contreras

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Ortiz

Top Newcomer: Ortiz

All Star(s): Peralta, Contreras, Megill

Breakout Player(s): Turang, Ortiz, Chourio, Hall, Bauers

Disappointment(s): Sanchez

So I went with my second choice in some cases, to get something different. Like if I had to put money on it, I would go with Chourio over Ortiz, but I really do think Ortiz could be an impactful player straight away. Megill is a sneaky pick, probably won't have the name recognition to go to the All-star game, but I think he'll have the performance to merit it. Turang is going to be much improved on offense, the hard-hit data for Bauers will have indicated something real, and DL Hall is nasty. 

[bensheeps]

Record: 85-77

MVP: Yelich and Hoskins

Cy Young: Peralta 

ROY: Chourio

Top Newcomer: Hoskins

All Star(s): Contreras, Hoskins

Breakout Player(s): DL Hall

Disappointment(s): Ortiz doesn't take advantage of the 3B job early on and multiple guys get a shot there (Dunn, Monasterio, Frelick)

Bold Prediction(s): Hoskins leads the NL in home runs.  We sneak into the playoffs and win a 1st round series.

[AKCheesehead]

Record:  85-77

MVP: Yelich

CY: Hall

ROY: Chourio and Bob Gas

Breakout:  Aside from Hall and Gasser above, Frelick and maybe Ortiz

HR Leader:  Yelich

All stars:  Yelich, Contreras, Payamps

Disappointments:  Hoskins, Sanchez.  

[MrTPlush]

Record: 76-86 (3rd NL Central) 

MVP: Yelich (crowded field of good, but not great players)

Cy Young: Peralta (who else, honestly?)

ROY: Chourio (honestly, who else?)

Top Newcomer: Chourio (he counts, yes)

All Star(s): Contreras 

Breakout Player(s): Frelick

Disappointment(s): Chourio

Bold Prediction(s): Someone signs a long extension during the season. Peralta starts 25+ games

[markedman5]

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