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Posted

If you look at the Blue Jays they are kind of in the same situation the Brewers were in during the 2010 season.  For the Brewers it was just Prince but for the Blue Jays it is Vlad and Bichette.  Bichette has a lot of value and it would take a ton to get him and I am not sure there is a team out there that would put up the prospects the Blue Jays would want in return.  So the Blue Jays are stuck in a division that doesn't look winnable for them at least not with the Yankees and Orioles built like they are. 

14 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Hoby, Peguero, Payamps, should all get a decent prospect not huge but top 15-20, maybe a 2nd decent piece. Uribe will have value maybe in the range of a top 15 prospect.

You are not getting top 15-20 prospects and another piece for those relievers.  While they are good relievers they are not closer level relievers who normally get top 15-20 prospects.  If you mean a teams 15-20 prospects then sure but those are normally lower level prospects. 

Posted
33 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If you look at the Blue Jays they are kind of in the same situation the Brewers were in during the 2010 season.  For the Brewers it was just Prince but for the Blue Jays it is Vlad and Bichette.  Bichette has a lot of value and it would take a ton to get him and I am not sure there is a team out there that would put up the prospects the Blue Jays would want in return.  So the Blue Jays are stuck in a division that doesn't look winnable for them at least not with the Yankees and Orioles built like they are. 

You are not getting top 15-20 prospects and another piece for those relievers.  While they are good relievers they are not closer level relievers who normally get top 15-20 prospects.  If you mean a teams 15-20 prospects then sure but those are normally lower level prospects. 

Last deadline similar trades.

Pierce Johnson (free agent, 6 era) for Victor Vodnik (10th prospect) and Tanner Gordon (26th prospect)

Kendall Graveman (3.48 era, 1.5 years at 8 million each) for Korey Lee (Astros #2 prospect 2022, not sure where he was when traded)

Jose Cues (4.54 era, lots of control)  for Nelson Velasquez (#16 in 2022, not sure ranking when traded, had 33 HR last year)

Keynan Middleton (3.96 era, free agent) for Juan Cirela (currwnt CWS #27 prsopect)

I would say Hoby and Payamps both have much more value than any of those guys.

I know Jordan Hicks throws 100 but I would say each of those guys value wise could be close to Hicks. He got Robberse and Kloffenstein current 12 and 16 for Cards (7 and ? when traded).

Posted
11 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Last deadline similar trades.

Pierce Johnson (free agent, 6 era) for Victor Vodnik (10th prospect) and Tanner Gordon (26th prospect)

Kendall Graveman (3.48 era, 1.5 years at 8 million each) for Korey Lee (Astros #2 prospect 2022, not sure where he was when traded)

Jose Cues (4.54 era, lots of control)  for Nelson Velasquez (#16 in 2022, not sure ranking when traded, had 33 HR last year)

Keynan Middleton (3.96 era, free agent) for Juan Cirela (currwnt CWS #27 prsopect)

I would say Hoby and Payamps both have much more value than any of those guys.

I know Jordan Hicks throws 100 but I would say each of those guys value wise could be close to Hicks. He got Robberse and Kloffenstein current 12 and 16 for Cards (7 and ? when traded).

Hoby and Payamps wouldn’t get close to what Hicks a guy who throws 100 got. Like come on.

Posted
4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Hoby and Payamps wouldn’t get close to what Hicks a guy who throws 100 got. Like come on.

Hicks had 2 months of control, had a 3.67 era/0.3 war and was terrible the previous 2 years coming off injury.

Hoby has 2.45 era with 0.5 war, under 2 era last year and 1.5 years of cheaper control. 

Payamps has 2.5 years, current 4 era, coming of 1.6 war as 8th inning man on playoff team.

I get that teams will put a premium on the big arm but good teams will put more value on outs. I don't expect an equal return as Hicks but just trying to backup my point that Milner and Payamps are worth more than a AAAA prospect. My original point was that they should get a top 20 prospect and maybe more.

Posted
3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Hicks had 2 months of control, had a 3.67 era/0.3 war and was terrible the previous 2 years coming off injury.

Hoby has 2.45 era with 0.5 war, under 2 era last year and 1.5 years of cheaper control. 

Payamps has 2.5 years, current 4 era, coming of 1.6 war as 8th inning man on playoff team.

I get that teams will put a premium on the big arm but good teams will put more value on outs. I don't expect an equal return as Hicks but just trying to backup my point that Milner and Payamps are worth more than a AAAA prospect. My original point was that they should get a top 20 prospect and maybe more.

Good teams will not trade 2 Top 20 prospects for a middle reliever like Hoby. 

Posted

Pretty insane how effective Milner has been, there are 143 relievers with at least 100 IP since 2022 with Hoby coming in at…

165 G (3rd) | 154.2 IP (14th) | 106 K%+ (94th) | 68 BB%+ (10th) | 67 HR9+ (52nd) | 78 FIP- (38th) | 66 ERA- (20th) | 1.9 fWAR (46th) | 2.8 rWAR (27th) | +3.64 WPA (23rd)

Getting low end closer/high end set up guy type production out of their gimmicky submariner lefty specialist is a pretty great encapsulation of the Brewers organizational approach to mining value from unlikely places.

  • Like 4
Posted

The guy I want us to target is Jesus Luzardo. I would have to think the Marlins will make him available at the deadline, given their need to rebuild. He has 2 years of team control after this season and is entering into his prime. I think our bullpen is totally fine, especially after Williams comes back. What will Luzardo cost? Probably a fair amount, but I think the Brewers are a legitimate contender with another competent starter.

  • Like 1
Posted

This article is worth a read regarding reliever value

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-you-cant-trade-your-newfound-reliever-for-a-shiny-prospect/

Milner isn’t really a guy that ONLY has a few good months but he is 33 years old with only maybe 150 good innings. He’s definitely not a Hader, he hasn’t really been a closer and he gets a matchup advantage quite often. So yeah we have some bullpen guys like him with good numbers but their trade value is pretty negligible except for the 1 or 2 guys that are really elite like Williams. 

  • Like 2
I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
Posted
On 5/28/2024 at 11:50 AM, shanedog19 said:

The guy I want us to target is Jesus Luzardo. I would have to think the Marlins will make him available at the deadline, given their need to rebuild. He has 2 years of team control after this season and is entering into his prime. I think our bullpen is totally fine, especially after Williams comes back. What will Luzardo cost? Probably a fair amount, but I think the Brewers are a legitimate contender with another competent starter.

Luzardo has been good and would be a perfect target. I am guessing we would need to give up Misi/Black and 2 of our top 10ish other prospect maybe a lower lotto type prospect.  Peralta, Luzardo, Woody, Gasser, Rea/Misi/Wilson would be an amazing rotaion next year. I would probably pay up for him if the price doesn't get to crazy.

Would Cal Quantrill or Austin Gomber be of interest? They have been good in Colorado this year but have up and down pasts. I would guess neither would cost tip prospects but would get a decent return. Both seem to be striving on offspeed pitches, I would far prefer Quantrill to Gomber based on his success in Cleveland.

Posted
9 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Crod, black, wiemer, and Lara I’d do for Lazaro.  No Miso.

My thought was similar Black, Crod (any non misi/Gasser pitcher), Wiemer/Mitchell, younger pitcher Manny Rodriguez/Bishop Letson/Ryan Birchard

Posted

If the bullpen looks good and there isn't enough roster room, then normally I would say Williams would be the one to trade. By far the greatest return, and for someone who would be gone by the end of 2025 anyway. With him not due to return before the all-star break though, that seems less likely. I'm sure teams will want him to prove his health before giving up anything of value.

Another thing that shouldn't matter, but might anyway, is the Josh Hader trade experience. Not the trade itself, which was great. But the timing. Might not want to repeat that, even if it would make sense. 

Posted
On 5/30/2024 at 8:39 AM, jay87shot said:

My thought was similar Black, Crod (any non misi/Gasser pitcher), Wiemer/Mitchell, younger pitcher Manny Rodriguez/Bishop Letson/Ryan Birchard

I'd actually try Black, Wiemer AND Mitchell w/2 younger arms & try to keep C Rod. But methinks they'll get a better offer from someone else.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'd actually try Black, Wiemer AND Mitchell w/2 younger arms & try to keep C Rod. But methinks they'll get a better offer from someone else.

Wiemer & Mitchell have little trade value. Wiemer can’t hit and Mitchell can’t stay on the field.

Posted
1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Wiemer & Mitchell have little trade value. Wiemer can’t hit and Mitchell can’t stay on the field.

Agreed, hence my last sentence. It's just that the original post included one of the two, and in that event I'd rather barter both & not deal Rodriguez. I think any of the better starters out there, clubs are going to start the talks with Miso & it'll end there.

Posted
6 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Mitchell has plenty of trade value once he is in the lineup for two solid weeks,  no doubts about it.

I agree 100% about Mitchell but I think Wiemer is a lost cause, his hitting reminds me of the Keston Hiura days as a player.  I see even Detroit cut him now. 

Posted

If we are trading relievers it will be Abner Uribe based on his attitude or lack of changing his attitude in AAA. 

Pick up Tommy Pham (.991 lifetime OPS in Miller Park/AFF) from CWS for Seminaris and maybe another Rule 5 guy that we will not be keeping (Yeager??). This will give you time on Weimer and GMitchell and give you options on how to use/sit JChurio moving forward. 

There will be NO trading Low-A starters at all!!!

Posted

Just had an article from Bleacher Report come out on Luzardo. I would do the trade they propose with the Brewers. I would prefer to swap Uribe for Henderson but that's just me.

Trade Proposal: Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10123040-marlins-sp-jesus-luzardos-top-landing-spots-amid-latest-mlb-trade-rumors

Posted
1 minute ago, wallus said:

Just had an article from Bleacher Report come out on Luzardo. I would do the trade they propose with the Brewers. I would prefer to swap Uribe for Henderson but that's just me.

Trade Proposal: Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10123040-marlins-sp-jesus-luzardos-top-landing-spots-amid-latest-mlb-trade-rumors

That is a steep price but one that must be paid for the control and quality of arm. I’d probably do it but I’d more concerned with losing that young talent in the farm such as Bitonti and Lara. Henderson is pitching lights out in High A

Posted
1 minute ago, titletownking said:

That is a steep price but one that must be paid for the control and quality of arm. I’d probably do it but I’d more concerned with losing that young talent in the farm such as Bitonti and Lara. Henderson is pitching lights out in High A

If we are going to trade for an upper level starting pitcher, I hope we do it sooner than later. Those guys hopefully will be good players but we can withstand losing them imo.

Posted
20 minutes ago, wallus said:

Just had an article from Bleacher Report come out on Luzardo. I would do the trade they propose with the Brewers. I would prefer to swap Uribe for Henderson but that's just me.

Trade Proposal: Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10123040-marlins-sp-jesus-luzardos-top-landing-spots-amid-latest-mlb-trade-rumors

I'd be fine with the first two names. I'd definitely try to swap Henderson and Bitonti for something else.

Posted
12 hours ago, BrewCrew8675309 said:

If we are trading relievers it will be Abner Uribe based on his attitude or lack of changing his attitude in AAA. 

Pick up Tommy Pham (.991 lifetime OPS in Miller Park/AFF) from CWS for Seminaris and maybe another Rule 5 guy that we will not be keeping (Yeager??). This will give you time on Weimer and GMitchell and give you options on how to use/sit JChurio moving forward. 

There will be NO trading Low-A starters at all!!!

I wouldnt be against trading Abner, whoever I would be looking for another young piece back. Guys that throw 100 with that kind of movement are rare and we have the depth to wait on him. Maybe we could find a blocked prospect to play 2B or 3B next year for him. Justin Foscue from Texas for Abner could make sense. Foscue is blocked and Texas needs bullpen help. I wouldnt mind Uribe as a 2nd or 3rd piece in a big deal but think we might be selling a bit low on him.

Would Garrett Crochet cost a bunch less than Luzardo or about the same. I would pay well for Crochet but not 4 prospects. If it was like Black and 1 mid level prospect I probably would do that but Crochet's past makes a huge package worrisome, maybe throw in Kopech for more.

Posted

Brewers: JD Martinez (-2.7) and Luis Severino (2.3)

Mets: Bauers (?)and Wiemer (8.7)

Not sure Mark would want to add this much payroll but you can get 2 quality vet rentals for not a ton of prospect value. The Mets can make Alonso a full time DH. (he should be) I assume the Mets will value the same metrics on Bauers that the Brewers saw. Wiemer is a guy that you may regret trading but you have to give up something promising and I feel okay moving Joey.

Posted
On 6/3/2024 at 11:53 PM, wallus said:

Brewers: JD Martinez (-2.7) and Luis Severino (2.3)

Mets: Bauers (?)and Wiemer (8.7)

Not sure Mark would want to add this much payroll but you can get 2 quality vet rentals for not a ton of prospect value. The Mets can make Alonso a full time DH. (he should be) I assume the Mets will value the same metrics on Bauers that the Brewers saw. Wiemer is a guy that you may regret trading but you have to give up something promising and I feel okay moving Joey.

Weimer for Severino would be interesting I would probably want a lotto style prospect back based on Joey's control. Martinez for relievers like Middendorf and Yeager would work for me. I would say the Mets would eat most of value of those contracts to get those players.

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