Brewers acquire Frankie Montas

[adambr2]

59 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

If Montas pitched 5.1 or 5.2 innings and gave up 3 runs, how would you feel? That's a 5 ERA. I will take that.

Then the bats can come back from their slow start and 3-0 deficit against the other team's bullpen while Mears and company shut down the opponents.

A quality start, defined as 6 innings with 3 runs or fewer, would leave a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA if they gave up three runs every time. Would you think that was a good pitcher? The Brewers have done well with starters (and openers) who hang in there and keep the team in the game. 

James Paxton had a 4.43 ERA with the Dodgers this year and he just got DFAed.

I hope they have more lofty expectations than that for Montas. A 2 month rental of a 5.00 ERA pitcher has almost no value in terms of what you'd give up for that. 

[brewers888]

I am not a huge fan of Wiemer but a CF with that defensive profile should have been worth more than a mediocre at best rental starter. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I am not a huge fan of Wiemer but a CF with that defensive profile should have been worth more than a mediocre at best rental starter. 

You literally called Wiemer a AAAA player two weeks ago. If that's all he is, he's the exact type of player you look to offload for rentals this time of year.

[brewers888]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

You literally called Wiemer a AAAA player two weeks ago. If that's all he is, he's the exact type of player you look to offload for rentals this time of year.

He can't hit but he's cheap and a great defensive CF and thats worth more than a bad rental starter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

He can't hit but he's cheap and a great defensive CF and thats worth more than a bad rental starter.

Brett Phillips is a great defensive CF who can't hit. He just signed with the Yankees as a pitcher. So no, those guys don't have a lot of value.

[TURBO]

48 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Brett Phillips is a great defensive CF who can't hit. He just signed with the Yankees as a pitcher. So no, those guys don't have a lot of value.

Can Wiemer pitch?

[tmwiese55]

And well Phillips was traded multiple times as a youth at the deadline for some pretty good players

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

James Paxton had a 4.43 ERA with the Dodgers this year and he just got DFAed.

I hope they have more lofty expectations than that for Montas. A 2 month rental of a 5.00 ERA pitcher has almost no value in terms of what you'd give up for that. 

They gave up no value: a relief pitcher who’s been hurt most the year and their 6th or 7th best OFer. 

[adambr2]

56 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They gave up no value: a relief pitcher who’s been hurt most the year and their 6th or 7th best OFer. 

I'd be curious to know how many people here really felt Wiemer was worth nothing 2 days ago and how many just feel that way now to make themselves feel better about this deal. 

I mean if an underwhelming 2023 meant Wiemer was useless, we may as well have traded Turang for a rental last year. 

Wiemer wasn't a finished product either, and the glove always was going to give him some kind of floor at this level. 

Also, wherever Wiemer was at in our OF pecking order was meaningless in regard to his trade value. Value is value. It's not like we were going to lose him if we didn't deal him before the end of the season. Had he improved, he would have moved up. Only Yelich and Chourio have locked down spots in this OF whenever healthy. 

[CheezWizHed]

22 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I'd be curious to know how many people here really felt Wiemer was worth nothing 2 days ago and how many just feel that way now to make themselves feel better about this deal. 

I mean if an underwhelming 2023 meant Wiemer was useless, we may as well have traded Turang for a rental last year. 

Wiemer wasn't a finished product either, and the glove always was going to give him some kind of floor at this level. 

Also, wherever Wiemer was at in our OF pecking order was meaningless in regard to his trade value. Value is value. It's not like we were going to lose him if we didn't deal him before the end of the season. Had he improved, he would have moved up. Only Yelich and Chourio have locked down spots in this OF whenever healthy. 

He isn't worth nothing.  We just traded him for pitching.  

He just isn't a high prospect.  And yes, I believed that before the trade.  His draft profile was that his swing had big holes in it.  His performance last year was that he had big holes in his swing.  I hoped he went to AAA this year to fix it, but sounds like it didn't go so well either.

His floor is Blake Perkins which is worth something... but not tons.

[BrewerFan]

On 7/30/2024 at 5:38 PM, adambr2 said:

I'd be curious to know how many people here really felt Wiemer was worth nothing 2 days ago and how many just feel that way now to make themselves feel better about this deal. 

I mean if an underwhelming 2023 meant Wiemer was useless, we may as well have traded Turang for a rental last year. 

Wiemer wasn't a finished product either, and the glove always was going to give him some kind of floor at this level. 

Also, wherever Wiemer was at in our OF pecking order was meaningless in regard to his trade value. Value is value. It's not like we were going to lose him if we didn't deal him before the end of the season. Had he improved, he would have moved up. Only Yelich and Chourio have locked down spots in this OF whenever healthy. 

Yeah, I don't know. I didn't think he had much value 2 days ago...but that's also why I thought it made no sense to trade him.

I think the guy came in early and struggled...as young players do. They revamped his swing and moved on the next year. He was a top 100 prospect.

I do believe people are doing the "Wiemer sucked anyway," thing to talk themselves into the trade...but so be it. Can't change the Brewers' decisions. I didn't like trading Herrera, but I liked Mears. I really dislike trading Wiemer though. At worst he's an outstanding defender who I think would be able to come in and hit lefties when you have Black, Yelich, Turang, Mitchell, and Frelick all on the roster/in the lineup.

But I definitely think the sentiment has shifted pretty drastically. 

 

Oh, the one I love the most, "there's a reason he was a 4th Rd pick." 
Great. There are also reasons why Woodruff, Burnes...Pratt(I don't care where you were drafted is the point here).

I trust the FO, but there are still trades I don't like. Three in particular, Reece Olson, I didn't like the Antoine Kelly(that turned out to be fine) and I don't love this one. 

[Scooterfletcher]

The last few post strike a scooter gennett to Cinci tone.

[adambr2]

7 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

He isn't worth nothing.  We just traded him for pitching.  

He just isn't a high prospect.  And yes, I believed that before the trade.  His draft profile was that his swing had big holes in it.  His performance last year was that he had big holes in his swing.  I hoped he went to AAA this year to fix it, but sounds like it didn't go so well either.

His floor is Blake Perkins which is worth something... but not tons.

If Frankie Montas has been DFAed a week ago, there would likely have been a thread about picking him up. Some would have supported it and there would have been many "hard pass" opinions mixed in. 

Any suggestion in the thread that we trade Wiemer and Junis for him would have been widely panned. 

Look, obviously the market for Montas was much different than we thought, obviously the Brewers think they see something, and even though I hate the move, I'm also going to acknowledge that the organization has been right more often than they've been wrong, so I'll wait and see.

I'm just pushing back against the narrative that Wiemer sucked anyway, Junis was useless anyway, etc. We all know this was a surprising move that would have made no sense to us on paper a week ago, we're just trying to have faith. 

[Jopal78]

On 7/30/2024 at 5:38 PM, adambr2 said:

I'd be curious to know how many people here really felt Wiemer was worth nothing 2 days ago and how many just feel that way now to make themselves feel better about this deal. 

I mean if an underwhelming 2023 meant Wiemer was useless, we may as well have traded Turang for a rental last year. 

Wiemer wasn't a finished product either, and the glove always was going to give him some kind of floor at this level. 

Also, wherever Wiemer was at in our OF pecking order was meaningless in regard to his trade value. Value is value. It's not like we were going to lose him if we didn't deal him before the end of the season. Had he improved, he would have moved up. Only Yelich and Chourio have locked down spots in this OF whenever healthy. 

The inverse is also true, who honestly thought 2 days ago Wiemer was going to amount to anything? 

He was up in 2023 primarily because Tyrone Taylor, Winker, Frelick, Mitchell all missed significant chunks of the season with injuries and was over matched in the majors. In fact his hitting numbers fell off in the minors as  the competition stiffened in the upper levels. 

It’s not really a question of him literally being worth nothing, but for a 25 year old player who’s a four year professional, who has used two options year up, and at best has a slim chance of making it to arbitration, he’s kind of worth what the Brewers got for him: a below average starter on an expiring contract to soak up innings across 10 games or so. 

[BrewerFan]

49 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

The last few post strike a scooter gennett to Cinci tone.

.303

.351

.508

.859

 

Gennett wasn't bad in Cincy. Two years, 50 HRs and we had Villar at 2nd for those two years IIRC. But no, not the same situation at all. 

Wiemer had a higher ceiling, was younger and...I don't think we got value while Gennett was DFAed at a time we weren't competitive. Though I doubt we'd have DFAed him had we known we'd compete the next two years. 

But I was fine with Gennett. I still think Wiemer has a lot of potential. Just turned 25 and he's raw.

[CheezWizHed]

On 7/31/2024 at 11:44 PM, adambr2 said:

If Frankie Montas has been DFAed a week ago, there would likely have been a thread about picking him up. Some would have supported it and there would have been many "hard pass" opinions mixed in. 

Any suggestion in the thread that we trade Wiemer and Junis for him would have been widely panned. 

Look, obviously the market for Montas was much different than we thought, obviously the Brewers think they see something, and even though I hate the move, I'm also going to acknowledge that the organization has been right more often than they've been wrong, so I'll wait and see.

I'm just pushing back against the narrative that Wiemer sucked anyway, Junis was useless anyway, etc. We all know this was a surprising move that would have made no sense to us on paper a week ago, we're just trying to have faith. 

In his current state, Wiemer does suck.  So does Montas.  I advocated most of the 2nd half of last year to have him go to AAA and work on his swing. He has value in the MLB for his defense, but there are many, many guys to be had for free that can do that (e.g. Blake Perkins).  If he can figure out his swing and hit for any sort of average, his upside is high (i.e. Hoskins that plays excellent OF D).  So value he does have...but he also has a lot of risk attached to that value.

I think the bigger key to this deal was Junis.  Something was odd there.  Even when healthy, he barely pitched.  his results were decent this year, but the Brewers (despite initial plans) only gave him one start.  

I'm guessing Wiemer was the upside piece to move Junis.  Montas has his own upside promise (his pre-NYY results were excellent) and might be able to regain something this year. 

[adambr2]

50 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

In his current state, Wiemer does suck.  So does Montas.  I advocated most of the 2nd half of last year to have him go to AAA and work on his swing. He has value in the MLB for his defense, but there are many, many guys to be had for free that can do that (e.g. Blake Perkins).  If he can figure out his swing and hit for any sort of average, his upside is high (i.e. Hoskins that plays excellent OF D).  So value he does have...but he also has a lot of risk attached to that value.

I think the bigger key to this deal was Junis.  Something was odd there.  Even when healthy, he barely pitched.  his results were decent this year, but the Brewers (despite initial plans) only gave him one start.  

I'm guessing Wiemer was the upside piece to move Junis.  Montas has his own upside promise (his pre-NYY results were excellent) and might be able to regain something this year. 

Value of "currently sucks" players is vastly different though when you're comparing one player with multiple years of cheap control to a player that you need to turn around like, right now.

If there was a year of control in 2025, I could wrap my head around this a little more. Then I could see, ok, we are counting on this guy to be a part of the rotation next year. That's not the case. Giving up two pieces of value for maybe 10 starts of a guy who hasn't been productive and we don't even know if/when we'll be able to fix him, is wild to me. The only way to potentially see value in this deal is if Montas ends up being a crucial and effective playoff contributor this year. 

To add, his salary is not cheap. Did we even find out how much the Reds are paying of his remaining salary and 2025 buyout?

[endaround]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Value of "currently sucks" players is vastly different though when you're comparing one player with multiple years of cheap control to a player that you need to turn around like, right now.

If there was a year of control in 2025, I could wrap my head around this a little more. Then I could see, ok, we are counting on this guy to be a part of the rotation next year. That's not the case. Giving up two pieces of value for maybe 10 starts of a guy who hasn't been productive and we don't even know if/when we'll be able to fix him, is wild to me. The only way to potentially see value in this deal is if Montas ends up being a crucial and effective playoff contributor this year. 

To add, his salary is not cheap. Did we even find out how much the Reds are paying of his remaining salary and 2025 buyout?

The reason Junis was included was to balance out salaries. The Brewers were sending money to the Reds I think?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

We are sending $1M to offset the buyout for next year. Link

The difference in money is $3.35M overall for this year (including the buyout and cash)

[ClosetBrewerFan]

My initial hot take on this is it was a terrible trade.  I've come down a bit from that by doing a lot of rationalizing. Junis needed significant rest in between his outings. Looking at his logs, the Brewers gave him at least 2 days rest (and often longer) even when he had short outings. Not sure if that would improve over time or not, but I think that played into this as well as clearly to offset salaries. The $1M we had to send was embarrassing IMO.  Montas value was low because he salary was so high. They got plenty in return that the $1M did not need to be sent.

Wiemer is the one I'm struggling on. He wont be a free agent until 2029 so thats a lot of years of control to rework that swing.  Too much potential for one year of a mediocre starting pitcher.  I've lost a lot of confidence in Wiemer though so its unlikely this will come back to bite us, but that Cincy stadium can make any hitter look good.

I'd rather they tried Chad Patrick as a starter to see what he can do.

 

[Outlander]

Not surprised they traded Junis. Pat Murphy even had that nickname of Green Corvette for him. Can be viewed as light hearted but also some truth to it that they have to gently use him and make sure it never gets scratched or else you can't take it our for a drive again.

[Scooterfletcher]

With respect to Wiemer, people are not mentioning the fact that dealing him opens up an opportunity for someone to take his aaa of spot and really shine.   Maybe Black shows a good glove there.  Maybe we call up Hicklen in a pinch and he shines when otherwise Wiemer would be the hypothetical pinch call up.  

[BrewerFan]

20 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

With respect to Wiemer, people are not mentioning the fact that dealing him opens up an opportunity for someone to take his aaa of spot and really shine.   Maybe Black shows a good glove there.  Maybe we call up Hicklen in a pinch and he shines when otherwise Wiemer would be the hypothetical pinch call up.  

It's AAA and...it's not like we've got Chourio, Mitchell and Wiemer down there together. If someone needed Wiemer out in order to shine...that kinda feels like an issue with that player. 

 

On 8/2/2024 at 8:34 AM, adambr2 said:

Value of "currently sucks" players is vastly different though when you're comparing one player with multiple years of cheap control to a player that you need to turn around like, right now.

Yeah..." currently sucks," when one guy is young and in AAA and the other is older and has a 20M option for '25 is a bit different.

 

But...Montas looked pretty damn good last night. I was impressed and I think the Brewers have a chance to turn him around and hopefully we'll be arguing about picking up that 20M option. I Still don't and won't like the price, I still had hopes for him. I thought he'd amount to something 2 days ago and I still do, but I get why people are down on him. I think if we just let him be, you'd get a guy who'd hit well, play great defense and even if he only hit .220, would still have value on the bottom of a lineup. Oh well, I'm moving on. I do hope Black can get some playing time and step up and really contribute as a LFer down the stretch or in some capacity. I think he'll get on base and hit for a decent average.

[thebruce44]

I don't know that it will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Weimer put it together in a year or two similar to Gomez or Podsednik.

[yourout]

12 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

I don't know that it will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Weimer put it together in a year or two similar to Gomez or Podsednik.

It would shock the hell out of me without a complete rework of his mechanics