Guardians (Williams) vs Brewers (Civale): 8/16/24, 7:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Brewers want to go ahead and sweep the Guardians, that would make me happy for several reasons.

[willie key]

Win one for yelich game?

[MoreTrife]

Man, my knowledge of the AL is severely limited. I only recognize like 5 names on the Guardians. 

[sveumrules]

23 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

Man, my knowledge of the AL is severely limited. I only recognize like 5 names on the Guardians. 

Probably the same thing lots of people say when looking at the Brewers roster…

Who are these bleeping guys ?!?!?

[sveumrules]

Two most impactful bullpens in MLB going at it…CLE (+11.24 WPA) MIL (+9.85 WPA) then a big ol gap down to ATL (+4.89 WPA) in third.

Guardians relievers also sport the best peripherals in MLB (79 FIP-) versus the Brewers being closer to average (98 FIP-) in that regard.

For all the consternation there’s been about a Brewers rotation that has put up a 99 ERA- (14th) and 8.1 rWAR (17th), Cleveland has really pushed the envelope on how bad a contenders starting pitchers can be with a 112 ERA- (25th) and 5.3 rWAR (24th).

Both teams hitters have excelled with RISP - CLE (125 wRC+ | 5th) MIL (124 wRC+ | 6th) - but the Brewers have had a couple hundred extra such plate appearances at 1,303 (2nd) versus 1,100 (20th) for the Guardians.

Should be a fun series between two pretty evenly matched organizations, heck going all the way back to 2017 they are only one win apart at 642 for MIL (6th) versus 641 for CLE (7th).

[Brian]

They have 3 more wins than the Brewers "but" they are in a weak division with both the White Sox and Tigers. So there wins I'm sure are a little inflated but I know there no joke with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez in the lineup. 

[treego14]

Central Champs face off!

Brewers say, "Back off!"

Brewers batters will hack-off!

Indians will show a lack-of!

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Brian said:

They have 3 more wins than the Brewers "but" they are in a weak division with both the White Sox and Tigers. So there wins I'm sure are a little inflated but I know there no joke with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez in the lineup. 

CLE is 7-6 vs DET and only 5-5 vs the White Sox.

KCR and MIN are the two teams that got the biggest ALC boost both going 12-1 against the Sox.

[Underachiever]

3 minutes ago, Brian said:

They have 3 more wins than the Brewers "but" they are in a weak division with both the White Sox and Tigers. So there wins I'm sure are a little inflated but I know there no joke with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez in the lineup. 

It is interesting to me that the Guardians are 5-5 against the White Sox. KC and MIN are both 12-1 in games against CWS. Cleveland could have a much more comfy lead. KC and MIN's entire margin above .500 is built on their domination of the White Sox. 

[Underachiever]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

CLE is 7-6 vs DET and only 5-5 vs the White Sox.

KCR and MIN are the two teams that got the biggest ALC boost both going 12-1 against the Sox.

Come on, man. You beat me by a minute! 

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers want to go ahead and sweep the Guardians, that would make me happy for several reasons.

Sweeping the AL Central leader will be a tall task.  I hope we can take the series but it wouldn't surprise me if we don't.

[Playing Catch]

44 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

It is interesting to me that the Guardians are 5-5 against the White Sox. KC and MIN are both 12-1 in games against CWS. Cleveland could have a much more comfy lead. KC and MIN's entire margin above .500 is built on their domination of the White Sox. 

I've wondered about this from the Brewers perspective as well... Sometimes I wonder if the MLB scouting departments spends more time on "big" games, as they count "more," in the standings.

Who cares if the Brewers go .500 against the Rockies and the Fish, so long as they bash their division and league rivals?

Again, I'm not claiming anything, just wonder sometimes about how MLB scouting works with limited scouting resources.

[Brian]

I also forgot Steven Vogt is the manager of the Guardians. He has been doing a great job for Cleveland.

[kestrel79]

I feel like these two teams are very similar this year. Is Cleveland mainly made up of homegrown cheaper talent and dumpster diving like we do? Looking forward to it!

[Outlander]

David Fry had a nice start but sure has struggled these last couple of months.

[wibadgers23]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Two most impactful bullpens in MLB going at it…CLE (+11.24 WPA) MIL (+9.85 WPA) then a big ol gap down to ATL (+4.89 WPA) in third.

Guardians relievers also sport the best peripherals in MLB (79 FIP-) versus the Brewers being closer to average (98 FIP-) in that regard.

For all the consternation there’s been about a Brewers rotation that has put up a 99 ERA- (14th) and 8.1 rWAR (17th), Cleveland has really pushed the envelope on how bad a contenders starting pitchers can be with a 112 ERA- (25th) and 5.3 rWAR (24th).

Both teams hitters have excelled with RISP - CLE (125 wRC+ | 5th) MIL (124 wRC+ | 6th) - but the Brewers have had a couple hundred extra such plate appearances at 1,303 (2nd) versus 1,100 (20th) for the Guardians.

Should be a fun series between two pretty evenly matched organizations, heck going all the way back to 2017 they are only one win apart at 642 for MIL (6th) versus 641 for CLE (7th).

So the Brewers should probably try to score early and often then…

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

So the Brewers should probably try to score early and often then…

For sure. Among 160 relievers with at least 40 IP so far this year their Big Three have some pretty impressive rankings...

Emmanuel Clase
16 ERA- (1st) | 51 FIP- (5th) | +4.80 WPA (1st)

Hunter Gaddis
35 ERA- (5th) | 59 FIP- (13th) | +2.26 WPA (14th)

Cade Smith 
50 ERA- (18th) | 37 FIP- (1st) | +1.96 WPA (18th)

That's three no doubt Top 20 relievers by performance this year with a fourth (Tim Herrin) paling somewhat by comparison despite a still pretty dang impressive 55 ERA- | 72 FIP- | +0.94 WPA.

[wiguy94]

Just now, sveumrules said:

For sure. Among 160 relievers with at least 40 IP so far this year their Big Three have some pretty impressive rankings...

Emmanuel Clase
16 ERA- (1st) | 51 FIP- (5th) | +4.80 WPA (1st)

Hunter Gaddis
35 ERA- (5th) | 59 FIP- (13th) | +2.26 WPA (14th)

Cade Smith 
50 ERA- (18th) | 37 FIP- (1st) | +1.96 WPA (18th)

That's three no doubt Top 20 relievers by performance this year with a fourth (Tim Herrin) paling somewhat by comparison despite a still pretty dang impressive 55 ERA- | 72 FIP- | +0.96 WPA.

So their bullpen is the 2021 Brewers rotation...we better score off their SP haha

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, Brian said:

They have 3 more wins than the Brewers "but" they are in a weak division with both the White Sox and Tigers. So there wins I'm sure are a little inflated but I know there no joke with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez in the lineup. 

The Tigers at 59-63 would be just 1.5 games out of second in the NL Central and have the same record as the Cubs.

The White Sox are historically terrible, but the rest of the AL Central is better than the NL Central..

[markedman5]

Contreras catching again……..he must be feeling good

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers want to go ahead and sweep the Guardians, that would make me happy for several reasons.

It wouldn't have anything to do with enjoying the taste of lutefisk, would it?

[Jim French Stepstool]

This is......not a 'trap' series, but dangerous in that they just competed four games that may have been emotionally draining, and right back into the fire vs a very good squad. OTOH maybe the team receives an adrenal jolt from the last couple wins. 

Facing all RH starters this weekend is welcomed. As mentioned above this definitely isn't the team to go into the 7th or later trailing.

Vogt seemed to like his time here. Would've been nice to keep him in the organization. Could be part of the braintrust, or if we wind up needing to add a fourth catcher.........

[treego14]

[TURBO]

Not a fan of Black hitting 3rd.  Drop him down, less pressure, and let him figure things out.

[liveforoctober]

Cleveland far more dominant at home (37-20) than the road (34-29). I'm optimistic we can get 2 of 3 here.