Are we too worried about losing Willy's power?

[Playing Catch]

The Brewers hit 177 Home Runs in 2024. Unless I added incorrectly, Steamer projects the current roster to hit 181 HRs.

Are we too worried about replacing Adames' power?

 

[liveforoctober]

I think it is really easy for fans to look at roster compilation and find the 'oddity' and be worried it will become an issue.

If the Brewers have a roster full of Brice Turang's and we average between 4-5 runs a game ... do we care how they are scored?

[edfunderburk]

59 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

The Brewers hit 177 Home Runs in 2024. Unless I added incorrectly, Steamer projects the current roster to hit 181 HRs.

Are we too worried about replacing Adames' power?

Here are the Steamer projections … oddly enough - Jake Bauers hitting six & he’s not on the roster 

[Frisbee Slider]

[Devinep]

You cannot rely on health and production from Yeli and Mitchell. Hoskins was down last year. Adames is gone. They need 1 bat and should be after 2 IMO. With one of those guys being a 3B and one of those bats having a good amount of power. Eugenio Suarez would be a similar bat to Adames but also get creative in finding some pop. Jonah Bride? Brandon Lowe? 

[brewfanmn]

Thank you for making this thread. This is becoming a pet peeve of mine. I really don't understand this narrative. It seems like people are caring more about what the production looks like over the amount of production itself. A lineup of nine Luis Arraez's (career 120 wRC+) would be the best lineup in baseball (#1 last year was LAD, with a 118 team wRC+).

Besides, all the "you can't build a lineup out of Frelicks, Turangs, and Durbins" comments seem to be conveniently forgetting that those guys will likely bat at the bottom of a lineup with Chourios, Contreras', Yelichs, and Hoskins' at the top of it.

 

I was curious to google if if there was any evidence to support the need to strike a balance between OBP and SLG, and found this interesting article which actually suggests the opposite: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/

If anything, it seems like if you have a high-OBP, low-SLG lineup (which I'm not convinced even applies to the Brewers), you'd actually benefit from doubling down on more OBP. I have to say the conclusion makes sense logically:

Quote

As a team’s overall OBP goes up, the relative value of SLG goes down, because you don’t need one big hit to drive in a bunch of runs when there’s a decent likelihood of stringing a bunch of smaller hits (or walks) together. And importantly, the inverse is also true; as a team’s OBP goes down, the relative value of SLG goes up, because singles and walks to a bad offensive club are less likely to score runs than a guy hitting a ball over the wall.

In other words, a team of low-OBP sluggers will actually draw a larger benefit than linear weights suggests from adding another low-OBP slugger to the mix than they would adding a high-OBP slap-hitter. If you already have a team that makes a bunch of outs, and you have to choose between two equally valuable hitters — one of whom is a low-OBP/high-SLG guy and the other a high-OBP/low-SLG guy — you’re actually better off with the high SLG guy.

[brewfanmn]

This article had a similar takeaway https://blogs.fangraphs.com/choose-your-own-lineup-adventure-on-base-vs-slugging/

[sveumrules]

Last year’s position players had the following MLB ranks…

+19.7 BsR (1st) | 9.7 BB% (2nd) | 217 SB (2nd) | 26.4 avgAge (3rd youngest) | .326 OBP (4th) | +64 DRS (4th) | +29 FRV (5th) | 27.2 WAR (5th) | 777 R (6th) | .248 AVG (8th) | 104 wRC+ (10th) | 177 HR (16th) | .155 ISO (18th) | 23.6 K% (18th)

First of all, just way to go. They were really really good at a lot of different things, especially for how young they were.

Even with Willy the primary deficit was hitting for power though, so I think it’s only natural to hope for improvement in that area this year, especially with his departure.

The players on hand should eat into a chunk of his lost production no doubt,  but I’d feel a lot better about them maintaining or maybe even building on that Top Six finish in run scoring if they added one more bat to the mix.

[wallus]

1 hour ago, Devinep said:

You cannot rely on health and production from Yeli and Mitchell. Hoskins was down last year. Adames is gone. They need 1 bat and should be after 2 IMO. With one of those guys being a 3B and one of those bats having a good amount of power. Eugenio Suarez would be a similar bat to Adames but also get creative in finding some pop. Jonah Bride? Brandon Lowe? 

Bingo. You go and get another guy assuming there will be injuries, especially when you are relying on a couple of injury prone guys.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Here are the Steamer projections … oddly enough - Jake Bauers hitting six & he’s not on the roster 

Feel like some of these are pretty generous. Frelick and Turang combined for 9 HR in 1143 PA in 2024 which is 127 PA/HR. I don't think 16 HR in 1023 PA for a 64 PA/HR leap is realistic.

This is also assuming health. If the team stays perfectly healthy then they might be okay in the power department, but if injuries force guys like Black, Perkins, Frelick, Monasterio/Durbin into playing every day then the power is a massive concern.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Last year’s position players had the following MLB ranks…

+19.7 BsR (1st) | 9.7 BB% (2nd) | 217 SB (2nd) | 26.4 avgAge (3rd youngest) | .326 OBP (4th) | +64 DRS (4th) | +29 FRV (5th) | 27.2 WAR (5th) | 777 R (6th) | .248 AVG (8th) | 104 wRC+ (10th) | 177 HR (16th) | .155 ISO (18th) | 23.6 K% (18th)

First of all, just way to go. They were really really good at a lot of different things, especially for how young they were.

Even with Willy the primary deficit was hitting for power though, so I think it’s only natural to hope for improvement in that area this year, especially with his departure.

The players on hand should eat into a chunk of his lost production no doubt,  but I’d feel a lot better about them maintaining or maybe even building on that Top Six finish in run scoring if they added one more bat to the mix.

Feel like we probably need to see a bit of a power uptick if we want to see similar run production because we had really good HR sequencing last year and not sure we can expect that again.

Despite be 16th in HR this is how we fared some HR sequencing.

Solo HR - 80 (29th)

2-Run HR - 63 (6th)

3-run HR - 24 (9th)

Grand Slam - 10 (2nd)

% of HR that were Solo HR - 45.2% (30th)

% of HR that were multi-run HR - 54.8% (1st)

% of HR that were 3-run/GS - 19.2% (2nd)

So we had really, really good HR sequencing in 2024.

[brewmann04]

I think they need to replace that power. 

[Playing Catch]

FTR, I, too, want to see them fill that hole with a power stick. But seeing the Steamer projections (even with the inaccurate inclusion of Bauers, haha), made me feel a lot better about just how much power the Brewers need to procure. It made me feel better about using a Durbin/Dunn platoon, or using a defensive player who's limited with the bat.

Also, Steamer is projecting Chourio with 28, Mitchell with 15, Ortiz with 13, and Frelick with 6. I'm not sure that I wouldn't take the over on all of those, individually.

Per the conversation about OBP>ISO, or whatever... OBP is really important, statistically. But much less important on an AB-by-AB level, where situation can change everything.

However, I also think many fans of power like it with the idea that power can drive in guys that are already on base. For me, that, too, is very situational. The reason I like power is that it gives the hitter a better chance of scoring a run himself, as he is more likely to be that much closer to home. In the same way, I love guys that can steal bases, and guys that can put the bat on the ball to drive in the guys in scoring position.

IMO, two of the currently most underrated "classic" stats are batting average (quick/dirty number, I know, compared to the advanced stats of today), and Runs Scored. Give me a guy that scores 100 runs every year for 6 million, over the guy that has 100 RBI every year and costs 26 million. Give me a stubborn, pesky hitter who fouls off 10 pitches and wears out that 100mph reliever, over the guy who loves to take walks go down 0-2 and K's on a well-placed slider.

To the idea of a lineup filled with Arraez-es or Hoskins, I really like having a balanced lineup. I like to have the speed/baserunning the Brewers possess. But I also like having guys that at least present a real threat to hit one out. Just having power threats is, IMO, very important in making it a difficult lineup to pitch to.

[Underachiever]

Using last year's team as the baseline is building on sand, in my opinion. They were sixteenth in HR last year, and hitting the same number this year (essentially, with Bauers removed), will still be sixteenth. The OBP model is great for the 162-game season, but I think that we have seen that HRs win in the playoffs, where it is more difficult to string together hits. I've been on this theme for a while now. They were 10th among playoff teams in home runs, and I think that is the group that the Brewers should be compared against.

And, Willy Adames hit 13 3-run home runs. That is an anomaly that probably wasn't going to be duplicated, even if Willy was still on the team. Anyone have an easy way to find out what their record was when Willy hit a 3-run homer?

Also, adding up all that WAR in the table above comes out to 22.8. The top 18 hitters last year combined for 27 WAR. Any concerns about that drop? I realize that your premise was to discuss home runs and power, but it's all reflected in the WAR totals above.

Final question: what was the Steamer projection last year in the preseason? I would be curious to see projection vs reality for last year's team.

I am on Team Find More Power.

[Mr Southpaw]

42 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

FTR, I, too, want to see them fill that hole with a power stick. But seeing the Steamer projections (even with the inaccurate inclusion of Bauers, haha), made me feel a lot better about just how much power the Brewers need to procure. It made me feel better about using a Durbin/Dunn platoon, or using a defensive player who's limited with the bat.

Also, Steamer is projecting Chourio with 28, Mitchell with 15, Ortiz with 13, and Frelick with 6. I'm not sure that I wouldn't take the over on all of those, individually.

Per the conversation about OBP>ISO, or whatever... OBP is really important, statistically. But much less important on an AB-by-AB level, where situation can change everything.

However, I also think many fans of power like it with the idea that power can drive in guys that are already on base. For me, that, too, is very situational. The reason I like power is that it gives the hitter a better chance of scoring a run himself, as he is more likely to be that much closer to home. In the same way, I love guys that can steal bases, and guys that can put the bat on the ball to drive in the guys in scoring position.

IMO, two of the currently most underrated "classic" stats are batting average (quick/dirty number, I know, compared to the advanced stats of today), and Runs Scored. Give me a guy that scores 100 runs every year for 6 million, over the guy that has 100 RBI every year and costs 26 million. Give me a stubborn, pesky hitter who fouls off 10 pitches and wears out that 100mph reliever, over the guy who loves to take walks go down 0-2 and K's on a well-placed slider.

To the idea of a lineup filled with Arraez-es or Hoskins, I really like having a balanced lineup. I like to have the speed/baserunning the Brewers possess. But I also like having guys that at least present a real threat to hit one out. Just having power threats is, IMO, very important in making it a difficult lineup to pitch to.

Nice synopsis of the offensive side of baseball. To add my two cents...

Most overlooked and important stats in baseball

Offense...Runs Scored per nine innings. See above

Pitching...ERA.  It's just the opposite of Runs Scored.  If you don't give up a run, you cannot lose. Errors must be added to the equation because that is one thing the pitcher cannot control on his side of the ball.

Defense...Errors per nine innings...  You will not get to everything, but if you limit errors you are not giving away runs.

Pretty simple equation and I think the Brewers Brass do a good job of evaluation to put the best team on the field for the parameters they are assigned

.

 

[jay87shot]

I don't think it is really replacing the HR's as mentioned before we have plenty of guys who can pick up the slack. I think the worry is having a portion of the lineup that doesn't hit many xbh in general. 

Turang, Chourio, Yeli, Contreras, Mitchell, Rhys, Sal, Ortiz, Durbin/Dunn  

That leaves like 4 spot 7-1 that aren't really threats to go deep and didn't hit a ton of 2B. If/when Mitchell gets hurt and Perkins is in that is 5 spots. Add in that the potential bench pieces like Mone and Collins don't have much power that hurts some. 

I am not crazy worried about it but injuries could really make it an issue.

[Samurai Bucky]

12 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Here are the Steamer projections … oddly enough - Jake Bauers hitting six & he’s not on the roster 

The thing that is a sore sport for me is K%.  According to statmuse.com, the average K% in 2024 was 20.2.  More than half of the team is well above that number.  You aren't going to be getting on base to steal bases, nor moving runners over if you are walking to the dugout 1/4 of the time after your at bat.

There really isn't a better option than Jake Bauers?  Not sure he will hit above the Mendoza line.

Do they need more pop in their bats?  I would like to see somebody who could drive the ball.  You know, like Rhys Hoskins had done before last year.  Put together a good package and trade for Bichette... 🤔

[sveumrules]

26 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Also, adding up all that WAR in the table above comes out to 22.8. The top 18 hitters last year combined for 27 WAR. Any concerns about that drop?

Projections regress defense to the mean extra hard. Last year’s DEF results vs next year’s Steamers…

Contreras
(+7.6 to +2.7)
Chourio
(+3.1 to -4.6)
Ortiz
(+11.3 to -0.9)
Turang
(+5.6 to +3.5)
Mitchell
(+1.3 to +0.5)
Perkins
(+6.9 to +2.9)
Frelick
(+3.1 to -1.6)
TOTAL
(+38.9 to +2.5)

That’s something like three to four wins of likely under-projection right there.

[Underachiever]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Projections regress defense to the mean extra hard. Last year’s DEF results vs next year’s Steamers…

Contreras
(+7.6 to +2.7)
Chourio
(+3.1 to -4.6)
Ortiz
(+11.3 to -0.9)
Turang
(+5.6 to +3.5)
Mitchell
(+1.3 to +0.5)
Perkins
(+6.9 to +2.9)
Frelick
(+3.1 to -1.6)
TOTAL
(+38.9 to +2.5)

That’s something like three to four wins of likely under-projection right there.

Thanks, man. But I don't understand what this means. ELI5.

[TURBO]

We'll see how worried we are in June, when this board is going off about our lack of power, and that we did nothing to fix it.  (assuming we stand pat)

You can throw all the steamer, projections, and predicted stats out there that you want, but we'll feel what it's like to have no power once the season starts, and THAT is when we will be worried.  Problem is, at that point, it's too late.

Hell, even last year, when we had Adames and Yelich hitting, it felt like our line-up just didn't have the power needed to get us on that next level.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Thanks, man. But I don't understand what this means. ELI5.

The gist is that those seven players combined for about four wins (+38.9 runs) above average last year when accounting for defense and position.

Steamer thinks those same seven players will only be marginally above average defensively (+2.5 runs) in 2025.

Odds are the projections are underselling our defense (and by extension our pitching), so the Brewers should be a pretty safe bet to beat them again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wily had a really solid 2024 season - that being said, his July-August really bolstered his counting stats, and there were still extended stretches where he was a negative offensively, particularly from late May into early July.

His M.O. has always been that he can get hot 3-4 times a season and carry a team for a few weeks, and then just as quickly go in the freezer and be a rally killer in the middle of the order.

And losing the ~175 Ks a season Adames provides isn't necessarily going to make the Brewers collectively strike out a ton less, but it probably can't hurt either.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

FTR, I, too, want to see them fill that hole with a power stick. But seeing the Steamer projections (even with the inaccurate inclusion of Bauers, haha), made me feel a lot better about just how much power the Brewers need to procure. It made me feel better about using a Durbin/Dunn platoon, or using a defensive player who's limited with the bat.

Also, Steamer is projecting Chourio with 28, Mitchell with 15, Ortiz with 13, and Frelick with 6. I'm not sure that I wouldn't take the over on all of those, individually.

Per the conversation about OBP>ISO, or whatever... OBP is really important, statistically. But much less important on an AB-by-AB level, where situation can change everything.

However, I also think many fans of power like it with the idea that power can drive in guys that are already on base. For me, that, too, is very situational. The reason I like power is that it gives the hitter a better chance of scoring a run himself, as he is more likely to be that much closer to home. In the same way, I love guys that can steal bases, and guys that can put the bat on the ball to drive in the guys in scoring position.

IMO, two of the currently most underrated "classic" stats are batting average (quick/dirty number, I know, compared to the advanced stats of today), and Runs Scored. Give me a guy that scores 100 runs every year for 6 million, over the guy that has 100 RBI every year and costs 26 million. Give me a stubborn, pesky hitter who fouls off 10 pitches and wears out that 100mph reliever, over the guy who loves to take walks go down 0-2 and K's on a well-placed slider.

To the idea of a lineup filled with Arraez-es or Hoskins, I really like having a balanced lineup. I like to have the speed/baserunning the Brewers possess. But I also like having guys that at least present a real threat to hit one out. Just having power threats is, IMO, very important in making it a difficult lineup to pitch to.

Durbin has had pronounced reverse splits in his minor league career 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Durbin has had pronounced reverse splits in his minor league career 

Oh jeez, of course he does!!

[owbc]

16 hours ago, brewfanmn said:

Thank you for making this thread. This is becoming a pet peeve of mine. I really don't understand this narrative. It seems like people are caring more about what the production looks like over the amount of production itself. A lineup of nine Luis Arraez's (career 120 wRC+) would be the best lineup in baseball (#1 last year was LAD, with a 118 team wRC+).

Besides, all the "you can't build a lineup out of Frelicks, Turangs, and Durbins" comments seem to be conveniently forgetting that those guys will likely bat at the bottom of a lineup with Chourios, Contreras', Yelichs, and Hoskins' at the top of it.

 

I was curious to google if if there was any evidence to support the need to strike a balance between OBP and SLG, and found this interesting article which actually suggests the opposite: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/

If anything, it seems like if you have a high-OBP, low-SLG lineup (which I'm not convinced even applies to the Brewers), you'd actually benefit from doubling down on more OBP. I have to say the conclusion makes sense logically:

This and the other linked fangraphs article don't even take into account the value of stolen bases, which have gotten much easier since these pieces were written. 

I think the Brewers' strategy is pretty obvious -- above all they want top tier defense in the key positions -- SS, 2B, CF.  Since you're not going to find many undervalued elite defenders with high slugging percentages, they are chasing high OBP speed guys who can play defense at an elite level. So Caleb Durbin. 

My personal opinion is that you can get away with the above but this is basically a formula to have an elite offense with a 15th-ranked slugging pct. If you're bottom-10 in slugging you're not going to be good no matter how many times to get on base and steal second. So they need to get slugging from corner positions.