Can Caleb Durbin and Oliver Dunn Man the Hot Corner for the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers?

[Jake McKibbin]

While sounding like a comedic duo, Durbin and Dunn are in the driver's seat for the third base job next season. Will the Brewers feel secure with their depth, or will they chase another lottery ticket before spring training?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Caleb Durbin and Oliver Dunn share some fascinating similarities and some distinct divergences in their playing styles. Each of them recently won the Arizona Fall League Breakout Player of the Year Award: Dunn in 2023, and Durbin in 2024. Each possesses startling speed on the basepaths; both are surprisingly effective on the infield dirt; and they each have good-to-great plate discipline. Despite this, their approaches at the plate are chalk and cheese.

While Durbin is a contact-oriented hitter who scraps his way on base, Dunn has some of the best bat speed in the majors and can hit for devastating power—if he could only make more in-zone contact. Splitting a right/left platoon matchup may be on the cards for the 2025 season, but could there be another wild card thrown into the mix?

Dunn's back was an enigma in the 2024 season. After barely a whisper was heard about it after he went down in June, he resurfaced playing some winter ball in the Dominican Republic, where he seemed disinclined to get the bat off his shoulder. Dunn barely swung in his 26 plate appearances there, logging just two hits, four walks and nine strikeouts.

To say this will be indicative of Dunn in 2025 is unfair, but it is concerning. The common thought after his early-season efforts was that he needed more time in the upper minors, and skipping Triple A was too much of a leap for him. He has the talent, surprising defense, and power to be a big-league contributor, but without some adjustments, it's hard to see that coming to fruition. As you can see below, if it isn't a meatball, Dunn Struggles to make any form of contact:

Thus, it's possible that (although Durbin's high floor and Dunn's high ceiling seem well-matched) relying on Dunn could be problematic, at least in the short term. When you combine the results from his 2024 debut with a checkered injury history, it's hard to hold much faith in him.

The Brewers do have Andruw Monasterio on their roster, although last season saw him relegated to a bench role with sparse appearances. Monasterio saw some catastrophic defensive frailties exposed and, although he was loosely passable at the plate, he didn't provide a whole lot there, leading to negative bWAR on the season.

Durbin is exciting as a fresh face in the Brewers camp: hard, gritty and with a variety of ways in which he can impact the game. He found some pull-side power at Triple A last season, but his 10.6% home-run rate on fly balls is unsustainable for a player with such low exit velocities. Whether he's truly an everyday player over a long stretch remains to be seen. However, with his speed, contact and plate discipline, even 10 home runs would enable him to be a capable offensive threat—if his defense can remain up to scratch alongside that.

Taking this into account, it seems as though the Brewers will want at least one more infielder in their mix to vie for the third-base role, either as a platoon for Durbin (who had reverse platoon splits in 2024) or on the bench. It seems as though the Brewers, who value that spring training competition, will want at least one other MLB-capable player in the mix.

What do you think Brewers fans? SHould the Brew Crew chase another third baseman, either in the mold of an everyday starter such as Ryan McMahon, or a backup infielder with some intriguing characteristics like Lenyn Sosa or Maikel García? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[jay87shot]

I would rather have Durbin or Mone/Dunn or Sal instead of a cheap-o signing. For me it kind of come down to how far away we think Boeve is. If we think Boeve could be ready mid-season than I would happily go along with what we have. However if we think Boeve is more of a 1B, then we really don't have an emergency plan if none of those fringe players work out at 3B. If there is money or a move to get a quality vet I would choose that 1st but would be able to live with what we have.

[Underachiever]

Today I learned that "chalk and cheese" is an expression meaning that they are opposites.

Enjoyed the rest of the article, too.

[Harold Hutchison]

I think a Tyler Black/Caleb Durbin platoon would work best for Milwaukee. Black's not horrible at third, and could get some PT at 1B once or twice a week to rest Hoskins and give Yelich a break at DH.

Dunn's bat is too hit-or-miss for me, and I'm just not sold on him. He could prove me wrong, but the holes in his swing need to get a lot smaller.

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Black's not horrible at third

Based on what?

The Brewers played Black at 1B for 76 games, DH for 21 games, OF for 12 games and 3B for 9 games (with three errors and a .876 fielding percentage) last year.

That distribution would seem to imply the Brewers don’t believe Black is defensively capable of handling the strong side of a 3B platoon at the MLB level.

If they had intentions of playing him at 3B on any kind of regular basis in MLB he would have gotten more reps there.

All indications, from his scouting reports, to his fielding percentages, to how the Brewers have chosen to deploy him most recently indicate he is pretty horrible at 3B (especially for a team built on a foundation of run prevention).

[Harold Hutchison]

46 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Based on what?

The Brewers played Black at 1B for 76 games, DH for 21 games, OF for 12 games and 3B for 9 games (with three errors and a .876 fielding percentage) last year.

That distribution would seem to imply the Brewers don’t believe Black is defensively capable of handling the strong side of a 3B platoon at the MLB level.

If they had intentions of playing him at 3B on any kind of regular basis in MLB he would have gotten more reps there.

All indications, from his scouting reports, to his fielding percentages, to how the Brewers have chosen to deploy him most recently indicate he is pretty horrible at 3B (especially for a team built on a foundation of run prevention).

In 112 minor-league game 2022-2024, Black posted a ,931 fielding percentage at third with a total of 17 errors. Braun's was .899 with 47 errors in 186 games. That's  32-point difference, which is a lot.

Black isn't a Gold Glover at the hot corner, but he isn't horrible, either. In a soft platoon (he gets 3 starts a week at third, Durbin getting another 3, with Black getting a start a week at first and DH, Durbin getting 1 a week at second and short to spell Turang/Ortiz), he'd certainly be better for the Brewers than Dunn at this point.

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

In 112 minor-league game 2022-2024, Black posted a ,931 fielding percentage at third with a total of 17 errors. Braun's was .899 with 47 errors in 186 games. That's  32-point difference, which is a lot.

Having a minor league fielding percentage 32 points better than thee literal worst 3B defender of the defensive metrics era is a point in his favor?

[wiguy94]

I pray the Brewers did not trade for Caleb Durbin thinking he would be a weak side platoon guy. He's had monster reverse splits in the minor leagues.

2024 - .883 vs RHP, .657 vs LHP

2023 - .872 vs RHP, .608 vs LHP

2022 - .745 vs RHP, .640 vs LHP

2021 (only 56 total PA) - .693 vs RHP, .384 vs LHP

[SportCards]

I like having both Dunn and Durbin but it would be nice if they could maybe get a guy like Moncada or Garcia.

[Harold Hutchison]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Having a minor league fielding percentage 32 points better than thee literal worst 3B defender of the defensive metrics era is a point in his favor?

The other half of the coin is offense. Dunn's a strikeout-heavy hole in the batting order who in the best-case scenario needs a full year at Nashville.

Black's bat is MLB-ready and assuming a month to six weeks of adjustment to MLB pitching, he'd be a huge offensive contributor. I think the Crew would get something like the .790 OPS Choruio posted in 2024, but with a .350-.360 OBP and a .430-.440 SLG (figure 25-30 doubles, a half-dozen triples, and 12-15 homers), plus about 25-35 steals. 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, SportCards said:

I like having both Dunn and Durbin but it would be nice if they could maybe get a guy like Moncada or Garcia.

Welcome to the board!

[Devinep]

As a team that should be trying to get to the World Series, I would like to see sights set higher for 3B than the Moncada, Dunn/Durbin, Baty proposals. Unless they get a good bat in another spot, they should be looking for an actual hitter at 3B. Eugenio Suarez makes so much sense. Maybe one of the Josh’s from TEX.   

[Trax]

Does Durbin have more defensive potential at 3rd than Black has?  If so, it's slight.  Don't they have similar arm strength?

I'd rather see this platoon than to go after a reclamation project or an old guy rental.

It's either this platoon for me OR a trade involving a young 3rd base prospect who is presently blocked on the team that owns him.  With Williams already gone, less likely.   

I hate to move a platinum glove guy, but one other scenario is Durbin to 2nd and Turang to SS.  

[wallus]

Durbin is not worth moving Turang off of 2nd base. B. Lowe from the Rays? Maybe.

[MJD17]

5 hours ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Black's not horrible at third

Black is very, very horrible at third... 

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, MJD17 said:

Black is very, very horrible at third... 

I agree with this, mostly. But more importantly, the Brewers obviously do not view Black as a viable third baseman.

[brewers888]

If Dunn/Durbin is our plan for third base we are not serious about competing to win a championship.

[WAN2]

2024 Black was a big disappointment.  A fluke?

[Brian]

2 hours ago, WAN2 said:

2024 Black was a big disappointment.  A fluke?

I don't think so, I believe Black "so far" has shown me the hitting abilities of a Joey Weimer.  I have never been a fan of Tyler Black.