2025 Projections

[Brewcrew82]

ZIPS preview is out, with full dataset to be released tomorrow.

 

[Brewcrew82]

A few things here:

-LF and C seem way too low at first glance. Feel like ZIPS has to have Haase at replacement to sub replacement level and Yelich with some age/injury related decline. Because otherwise you'd have declines for Chourio and Contreras, and I don't know how you can reasonably project that, even at a 50% outcome level. 

-Very high on our SP. Seems like it pretty much assumes Woodruff returns to pre-injury form. So may be somewhat of a cancellation effect here between that and LF/C. 

-RP doesn't skip a beat without Devin. Reinforces how trading Devin was clearly the correct decision.

-We really need to add another Corner IF. Dunn/Durbin, Ortiz, Turang, and Hoskins ain't going to cut it in the IF. 

[markedman5]

How accurate is Zips? I just don’t have much faith in these projection systems……seems like we outperform them as a team every season.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

How accurate is Zips? I just don’t have much faith in these projection systems……seems like we outperform them as a team every season.

It's like most projection systems which herd a ton and play things conservatively. In the aggregate it's quite accurate, but it will also miss at the team and individual levels at varying levels. 

With the Brewers, you are correct that it misses more often than not due largely to our emphasis on team defense. I personally just don't see an excuse for shortchanging Contreras or Chourio at their ages and the seasons they're coming off of, if that's what it's indeed doing. 

[markedman5]

And even on the plus side…..projecting Woody to be completely back to pre injury form seems ridiculous……….Do I hope it happens? Sure……could it happen? Sure…..but a projection typically is what they expect to happen and there are just too many unknowns for that to be the expectation.

[Brewcrew82]

Full version is up, and yeah it’s just plain selling us short on LF and C. I mean ZIPS currently has Chourio projected for a full 1 WAR less than…..Pete Crow Armstrong. Yikes. Oh well, ZIPS undervaluing the Brewers. What’s new, right?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

[sveumrules]

Projecting Yoho for a 3.76 ERA which is a scooch better than the likes of Peguero (3.81), Mears (3.86) and Bukauskas (3.86) is pretty cool.

Then seeing KC Hunt next on the list with a 3.87 ERA projection just ahead of guys like Koenig (3.92), Gasser (3.97) and Myers (4.02) is pretty cool too.

[sveumrules]

Circling back around to the Chourio projection, I was curious how other 20 year olds who got regular playing time ended up performing in their age 21 seasons.

Using this leaderboard at FanGraphs it looks there have been 32 players in the Expansion Era to have gotten at least 400 PAs in their age 20 season with Chourio coming in at 117 wRC+ (10th) and 3.9 WAR (9th), not too shabby.

For the comparisons below I lopped off 1970 Jack Heidemann who was clearly over matched for his whole career and 1980 Lloyd Moseby (had a nice run with 118 wRC+ and 22.0 WAR from age 23-27 though) at the bottom of the list, then Mike Trout/Alex Rodriguez at the top of the list since they were clearly in a whole other league of their own, plus 2019 Juan Soto & Vlad Junior since their age 21 seasons were in the shortened 2020, which leaves the following 25 players...

1989 Gary Sheffield
20: 405 PAs | 82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR
21: 547 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR

2008 Justin Upton
20: 417 PAs | 106 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR
21: 588 PAs | 130 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR

2014 Rougned Odor
20: 417 PAs | 91 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR
21: 470 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR

1997 Edgar Renteria
20: 691 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR
21: 580 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR

1976 Robin Yount
20: 690 PAs | 72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR
21: 663 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR

1978 Clint Hurdle
20: 481 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR
21: 204 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR

1971 Cesar Cedeno
20: 649 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR
21: 625 PAs | 163 wRC+ | 7.8 WAR

1972 Buddy Bell
20: 505 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR
21: 689 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR

1986 Ruben Sierra
20: 411 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR
21: 696 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR

2010 Starlin Castro
20: 506 PAs | 99 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR
21: 715 PAs | 109 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR

1975 Rick Manning
20: 535 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR
21: 606 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR

1992 Ivan Rodriguez
20: 454 PAs | 85 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR
21: 519 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR

1978 Alan Trammell
20: 504 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR
21: 520 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR

2009 Elvis Andrus
20: 541 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR
21: 674 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR

1999 Adrian Beltre
20: 614 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR
21: 575 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR

2015 Carlos Correa
20: 432 PAs | 136 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR
21: 660 PAs | 123 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR

1976 Butch Wynegar
20: 622 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR
21: 617 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR

1997 Andruw Jones
20: 467 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR
21: 631 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 7.0 WAR

1975 Claudell Washington
20: 635 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR
21: 530 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR

1988 Roberto Alomar
20: 611 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR
21: 702 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR

2013 Bryce Harper
20: 497 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR
21: 395 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR

2018 Ronald Acuna Jr.
20: 487 PAs | 142 wRC+ | 4.4 WAR
21: 715 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 4.8 WAR

2010 Jason Heyward
20: 623 PAs | 134 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR
21: 456 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR

2013 Manny Machado
20: 710 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR
21: 354 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR

1990 Ken Griffey Jr.
20: 666 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR
21: 633 PAs | 148 wRC+ | 6.9 WAR

So all told I'd say something like 17 of those 25 players (or 19 of 27 if you include Soto and Vlad Jr) have had at least HofVG careers, which is a pretty nice ratio, and I'd break down their progressions from age 20 to age 21 as such...

QUANTUM LEAPERS (4 for +17.4 WAR)
1971 Cesar Cedeno (+6.5 WAR), 2008 Justin Upton (+4.3 WAR), 1997 Andruw Jones (+3.3 WAR), 1989 Gary Sheffield (+3.3 WAR)

NICE GAINERS (4 for +6.8 WAR)
1972 Buddy Bell (+2.1 WAR), 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. (+1.9 WAR), 2014 Rougned Odor (+1.5 WAR), 1976 Robin Yount (+1.3 WAR)

BOUT THE SAMERS (10 for +1.7 WAR)
2010 Starlin Castro (+0.9 WAR), 2015 Carlos Correa (+0.7 WAR), 1975 Rick Manning (+0.6 WAR), 1999 Adrian Beltre (+0.5 WAR), 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. (+0.4 WAR), 1992 Ivan Rodriguez (+0.1 WAR), 1988 Roberto Alomar (-0.1 WAR), 1997 Edgar Renteria (-0.1 WAR), 1976 Butch Wynegar (-0.6 WAR), 1986 Ruben Sierra (-0.7 WAR)

LIL STUMBLERS (2 for -2.4 WAR)
1978 Clint Hurdle (-1.2 WAR), 2009 Elvis Andrus (-1.2 WAR)

BIG DROPPERS (5 for -13.0 WAR)
1975 Claudell Washington (-3.7 WAR), 2013 Bryce Harper (-2.5 WAR), 2013 Manny Machado (-2.7 WAR), 2010 Jason Heyward (-2.8 WAR), 1978 Alan Trammell (-2.3 WAR)

[jay87shot]

Here are my personal predictions

Contreras .295/.375/.850 28 HR 100 rbi WAR 6, Contreras gets more days at DH and stays fresh longer, somewhere around a 5th in MVP.

Haase  .230/.290/.700  0 War   Haase has a couple big moments but is generally just a solid backup

Rhys  .250/340/.850 15 HR 50 rbi's, 1 WAR  Rhys starts of solid, has a huge week in May and then gets hurt for the last 80 games

Black .240/360/.725 12 HR 18 SB  2 WAR   Black gets lots of run at 1B with the Rhys injury, he is streaky but solid offensively, he ends up playing alot of OF based on later described events. Defense at 1st isn't great but passible, shows more potential in OF.

Boeve/EMJ    One these guys has a really solid year in the minors and takes over for Black the last month of the year.  .250/.320/.700 .5 WAR

Turang   .270/.350/.675  10 HR 45 SB 5 WAR, Turang improves on consistency, but defensive metrics aren't as great but overall still really good

Ortiz   .260/.345/.750  17 HR 65 RBI 12 SB 4 WAR, Ortiz misses a month in the middle of the year but has a huge impact and makes up a ton for Adames being gone when healthy.

3rd- Dunn/Durbin/Mone/Scrapheap  .200/.275/.550 -.5 WAR  3rd base is a black hole  the 1st 3 months of the year and nothing works offensively. 

Midseason trade Perkins to Rays for Curtis Mead (blocked no PT in Tampa).

Mead .260/.310/.675  0.5 WAR Mead brings stability to the position but by no means shows any major potential other than average across the board.

Yeli .300/.390/.850  25 HR 20 SB 90 RBI, 4 WAR Yeli picks up where he left of, he is healthy for the 1st 130 games or so and only ends up on the DL for one shorter stretch later in the year.

Chourio .290/.350/.875  34 HR 90 RBI 28 SB  6 WAR  Chourio takes the next step, he has a weak August but other wise puts up top 5-10 mvp season. 

Mitchell .250/.333/.800 17 HR 23 SB 4 WAR Mitchell is healthy the 1st half but soon after we trade Perkins to the Rays he gets hurt (not major like 15 games, forcing Yeli to the OF and eventual short DL stint) but comes back the last 3-4 weeks solid.

Perkins .230/.315    Perkins doesn't get much PT early in the year and gets traded.

Frelick .285/.350/.700  9 HR 38 SB, 5 WAR, Frelick starts of the season hot like Turang last year but cools off the last month or two.

Bench=overall the bench is solid defensively but struggles offensively.

The Brewers sweep the OF Gold Gloves

SP

1) Freddy    3.4 ERA 175 innings 215 k's 4.5 WAR  Freddy is an All-Star but 2 bad outings in the 2nd half ruin a potentially great year.

2) Woody   2.8 ERA 120 innings 135 k 3 WAR  Woody comes back strong but misses 6 starts in the middle of the year (overused) and Murph babies him down the stretch.

3/4) Cortez/Civale  3.5 era 200 innings 4 WAR One of these pitchers gets hurt early in the year and misses extended time the other is very dependable and solid.

5)Myers   4.25 era 140 innings   1.5 WAR   Myers is solid but gets into trouble to often. At one point loses roation spot but gets it back.

6)Patrick/CarRod/Henderson  10 starts 4.5 ERA, Patrick and CarRod each get 3-4 game stretches early (Civale/Cortez) and are ok but not great then Henderson gets a couple starts later in the year

7) Gasser  12 starts 3.75 era  Gasser comes back and is solid and ends up being the 6th starter at the end of the year. 

8) Misi  10-15 appearances (maybe a couple starts) 30 innings 2.5 era 48 ks/16 bb   Misi is solid in AAA and effectively piggybacks with Woody the last 2 months of the year.

9) Ashby  8 starts, 3.00 era, 100 total innings.  Ashby is great to start the year as a multi inning reliever, he picks up a few starts but isn't as impressive as when working 2 innings.

Pen

Megill= 2.5 ERA 28 sv    Megill misses a month like last year but otherwise is relatively solid.

Hudson/Koenig= 2.2 ERA both pickup where they left of and are solid all year.

Hall/Mears= 5 era, both have some good outing early in the year but stuggle come June and get sent down

Uribe/Yoho= 3 era, come July both guys are up to the bigs for Hall/Mears and are very good expect each have 1 blowup that balloon the ERA for each.

Payamps/Peguero= 3.5 era, both kind of keep on the path from last year, Murph uses Peguero better with less runners on.

Thomas/Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson = 4 era to start, 2 era 2nd half  Thomas makes opening day but srtuggles (we trade a minor league arm to keep him but he doesn't make an impact)  Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson taxi style pitch for a couple months until 1 of them breaks through and becomes a solid reliever ala Koenig last year.

We start off hot cool down around game 100 but end strong the last 30 games. 94-68.

Cubs 91-71, Reds 86-76, Cards 80-82, Pirates 71-91 (couple big pitching injuries)

 

[bensheeps]

9 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Midseason trade Perkins to Rays for Curtis Mead.

Mead is one of the blocked, former top-100 prospects I've considered as another body for 3B.  Not sure what to expect from him as his limited MLB time has not been great.

[Underachiever]

It seems to be agreed that the projections often underestimate the Brewers, whether it is due to not having enough data on young players, or the projections not valuing defense properly.

Can one of you smart people compare the 2024 projections vs 2024 reality and tell me how many games they will win this year based on that? If projected 2024 WAR was x, and final 2024 WAR was x+3, that ended up with 93 wins. May be useless, but I would appreciate it.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

Here are my personal predictions

Contreras .295/.375/.850 28 HR 100 rbi WAR 6, Contreras gets more days at DH and stays fresh longer, somewhere around a 5th in MVP.

Haase  .230/.290/.700  0 War   Haase has a couple big moments but is generally just a solid backup

Rhys  .250/340/.850 15 HR 50 rbi's, 1 WAR  Rhys starts of solid, has a huge week in May and then gets hurt for the last 80 games

Black .240/360/.725 12 HR 18 SB  2 WAR   Black gets lots of run at 1B with the Rhys injury, he is streaky but solid offensively, he ends up playing alot of OF based on later described events. Defense at 1st isn't great but passible, shows more potential in OF.

Boeve/EMJ    One these guys has a really solid year in the minors and takes over for Black the last month of the year.  .250/.320/.700 .5 WAR

Turang   .270/.350/.675  10 HR 45 SB 5 WAR, Turang improves on consistency, but defensive metrics aren't as great but overall still really good

Ortiz   .260/.345/.750  17 HR 65 RBI 12 SB 4 WAR, Ortiz misses a month in the middle of the year but has a huge impact and makes up a ton for Adames being gone when healthy.

3rd- Dunn/Durbin/Mone/Scrapheap  .200/.275/.550 -.5 WAR  3rd base is a black hole  the 1st 3 months of the year and nothing works offensively. 

Midseason trade Perkins to Rays for Curtis Mead (blocked no PT in Tampa).

Mead .260/.310/.675  0.5 WAR Mead brings stability to the position but by no means shows any major potential other than average across the board.

Yeli .300/.390/.850  25 HR 20 SB 90 RBI, 4 WAR Yeli picks up where he left of, he is healthy for the 1st 130 games or so and only ends up on the DL for one shorter stretch later in the year.

Chourio .290/.350/.875  34 HR 90 RBI 28 SB  6 WAR  Chourio takes the next step, he has a weak August but other wise puts up top 5-10 mvp season. 

Mitchell .250/.333/.800 17 HR 23 SB 4 WAR Mitchell is healthy the 1st half but soon after we trade Perkins to the Rays he gets hurt (not major like 15 games, forcing Yeli to the OF and eventual short DL stint) but comes back the last 3-4 weeks solid.

Perkins .230/.315    Perkins doesn't get much PT early in the year and gets traded.

Frelick .285/.350/.700  9 HR 38 SB, 5 WAR, Frelick starts of the season hot like Turang last year but cools off the last month or two.

Bench=overall the bench is solid defensively but struggles offensively.

The Brewers sweep the OF Gold Gloves

SP

1) Freddy    3.4 ERA 175 innings 215 k's 4.5 WAR  Freddy is an All-Star but 2 bad outings in the 2nd half ruin a potentially great year.

2) Woody   2.8 ERA 120 innings 135 k 3 WAR  Woody comes back strong but misses 6 starts in the middle of the year (overused) and Murph babies him down the stretch.

3/4) Cortez/Civale  3.5 era 200 innings 4 WAR One of these pitchers gets hurt early in the year and misses extended time the other is very dependable and solid.

5)Myers   4.25 era 140 innings   1.5 WAR   Myers is solid but gets into trouble to often. At one point loses roation spot but gets it back.

6)Patrick/CarRod/Henderson  10 starts 4.5 ERA, Patrick and CarRod each get 3-4 game stretches early (Civale/Cortez) and are ok but not great then Henderson gets a couple starts later in the year

7) Gasser  12 starts 3.75 era  Gasser comes back and is solid and ends up being the 6th starter at the end of the year. 

8) Misi  10-15 appearances (maybe a couple starts) 30 innings 2.5 era 48 ks/16 bb   Misi is solid in AAA and effectively piggybacks with Woody the last 2 months of the year.

9) Ashby  8 starts, 3.00 era, 100 total innings.  Ashby is great to start the year as a multi inning reliever, he picks up a few starts but isn't as impressive as when working 2 innings.

Pen

Megill= 2.5 ERA 28 sv    Megill misses a month like last year but otherwise is relatively solid.

Hudson/Koenig= 2.2 ERA both pickup where they left of and are solid all year.

Hall/Mears= 5 era, both have some good outing early in the year but stuggle come June and get sent down

Uribe/Yoho= 3 era, come July both guys are up to the bigs for Hall/Mears and are very good expect each have 1 blowup that balloon the ERA for each.

Payamps/Peguero= 3.5 era, both kind of keep on the path from last year, Murph uses Peguero better with less runners on.

Thomas/Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson = 4 era to start, 2 era 2nd half  Thomas makes opening day but srtuggles (we trade a minor league arm to keep him but he doesn't make an impact)  Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson taxi style pitch for a couple months until 1 of them breaks through and becomes a solid reliever ala Koenig last year.

We start off hot cool down around game 100 but end strong the last 30 games. 94-68.

Cubs 91-71, Reds 86-76, Cards 80-82, Pirates 71-91 (couple big pitching injuries)

 

So I think I counted 55 WAR for the people you projected.  If we assume 0 WAR for the rest (you didn't list any for BP, which is normally a positive for the Brewers), that would come to about 103 wins on the season.  

I think many of the 5-6 WAR players are probably more of 2-4 WAR players.

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

So I think I counted 55 WAR for the people you projected.  If we assume 0 WAR for the rest (you didn't list any for BP, which is normally a positive for the Brewers), that would come to about 103 wins on the season.  

I think many of the 5-6 WAR players are probably more of 2-4 WAR players.

103 wins it is. I am sure I probably would have had 7-8 bullpen WAR as well. I admit I am overly optimistic.

I don't think any of my individual hopes/predictions are crazy but I agree they all won't happen. I definitely put i positive spin for everyone with a few injuries sprinkled in.  

I will say I do think Mitchell, Turang, Contreras, and Chourio do all have 5-6 WAR potential, but I would expect 2-3 of them to be 2-4 WAR instead.

[CheezWizHed]

45 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

103 wins it is. I am sure I probably would have had 7-8 bullpen WAR as well. I admit I am overly optimistic.

I don't think any of my individual hopes/predictions are crazy but I agree they all won't happen. I definitely put i positive spin for everyone with a few injuries sprinkled in.  

I will say I do think Mitchell, Turang, Contreras, and Chourio do all have 5-6 WAR potential, but I would expect 2-3 of them to be 2-4 WAR instead.

Mitchell has that ceiling, but injuries are far too big a part of his career to see it realized. He reminds me a bit of Buxton in many ways.  FYI, Bux has a max WAR of 4.9.

Contreras and Chourio certainly could.  I'd be disappointed if Chourio doesn't at some point.

Turang and Frelick I really doubt.  Especially Turang.  I don't see his bat sustaining enough to manage it.  Frelick possibly has more ceiling with BA and power as he matures a bit more.  But 5 WAR is still a stretch to me. 

But your predictions were a fun read and a couple of very specific details made me chuckle. 😄

[jay87shot]

Turang had a 4.7 WAR last year with like 2 months of rough hitting, definitely not a stretch. Sal will likely need to hit .300 to have a 5 WAR type season but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibilities. Turang, Frelick, and Mitchell are all elite baserunners and defenders if they can just be slightly above average with the bat (and healthy) a 5 WAR season isn't crazy. 

Look at Dalton Varsho (5 WAR, 98 ops), Andres Gimenez (4 WAR, 82 OPS), Turang (4.7 war, 85 ops), baserunning and defense add up quick. Joey Ortiz could also be an eventual 5 WAR player if they bat improves and metrics like his SS, his first month or so at 3rd was great but he was on of the best defenders the 2nd half of the year. He probably won't steal a ton of bases but I could see him getting to 20 at some point in his career. 

[Brewcrew82]

14 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Circling back around to the Chourio projection, I was curious how other 20 year olds who got regular playing time ended up performing in their age 21 seasons.

Using this leaderboard at FanGraphs it looks there have been 32 players in the Expansion Era to have gotten at least 400 PAs in their age 20 season with Chourio coming in at 117 wRC+ (10th) and 3.9 WAR (9th), not too shabby.

For the comparisons below I lopped off 1970 Jack Heidemann who was clearly over matched for his whole career and 1980 Lloyd Moseby (had a nice run with 118 wRC+ and 22.0 WAR from age 23-27 though) at the bottom of the list, then Mike Trout/Alex Rodriguez at the top of the list since they were clearly in a whole other league of their own, plus 2019 Juan Soto & Vlad Junior since their age 21 seasons were in the shortened 2020, which leaves the following 25 players...

1989 Gary Sheffield
20: 405 PAs | 82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR
21: 547 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR

2008 Justin Upton
20: 417 PAs | 106 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR
21: 588 PAs | 130 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR

2014 Rougned Odor
20: 417 PAs | 91 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR
21: 470 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR

1997 Edgar Renteria
20: 691 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR
21: 580 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR

1976 Robin Yount
20: 690 PAs | 72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR
21: 663 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR

1978 Clint Hurdle
20: 481 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR
21: 204 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR

1971 Cesar Cedeno
20: 649 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR
21: 625 PAs | 163 wRC+ | 7.8 WAR

1972 Buddy Bell
20: 505 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR
21: 689 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR

1986 Ruben Sierra
20: 411 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR
21: 696 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR

2010 Starlin Castro
20: 506 PAs | 99 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR
21: 715 PAs | 109 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR

1975 Rick Manning
20: 535 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR
21: 606 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR

1992 Ivan Rodriguez
20: 454 PAs | 85 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR
21: 519 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR

1978 Alan Trammell
20: 504 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR
21: 520 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR

2009 Elvis Andrus
20: 541 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR
21: 674 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR

1999 Adrian Beltre
20: 614 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR
21: 575 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR

2015 Carlos Correa
20: 432 PAs | 136 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR
21: 660 PAs | 123 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR

1976 Butch Wynegar
20: 622 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR
21: 617 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR

1997 Andruw Jones
20: 467 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR
21: 631 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 7.0 WAR

1975 Claudell Washington
20: 635 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR
21: 530 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR

1988 Roberto Alomar
20: 611 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR
21: 702 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR

2013 Bryce Harper
20: 497 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR
21: 395 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR

2018 Ronald Acuna Jr.
20: 487 PAs | 142 wRC+ | 4.4 WAR
21: 715 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 4.8 WAR

2010 Jason Heyward
20: 623 PAs | 134 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR
21: 456 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR

2013 Manny Machado
20: 710 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR
21: 354 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR

1990 Ken Griffey Jr.
20: 666 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR
21: 633 PAs | 148 wRC+ | 6.9 WAR

So all told I'd say something like 17 of those 25 players (or 19 of 27 if you include Soto and Vlad Jr) have had at least HofVG careers, which is a pretty nice ratio, and I'd break down their progressions from age 20 to age 21 as such...

QUANTUM LEAPERS (4 for +17.4 WAR)
1971 Cesar Cedeno (+6.5 WAR), 2008 Justin Upton (+4.3 WAR), 1997 Andruw Jones (+3.3 WAR), 1989 Gary Sheffield (+3.3 WAR)

NICE GAINERS (4 for +6.8 WAR)
1972 Buddy Bell (+2.1 WAR), 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. (+1.9 WAR), 2014 Rougned Odor (+1.5 WAR), 1976 Robin Yount (+1.3 WAR)

BOUT THE SAMERS (10 for +1.7 WAR)
2010 Starlin Castro (+0.9 WAR), 2015 Carlos Correa (+0.7 WAR), 1975 Rick Manning (+0.6 WAR), 1999 Adrian Beltre (+0.5 WAR), 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. (+0.4 WAR), 1992 Ivan Rodriguez (+0.1 WAR), 1988 Roberto Alomar (-0.1 WAR), 1997 Edgar Renteria (-0.1 WAR), 1976 Butch Wynegar (-0.6 WAR), 1986 Ruben Sierra (-0.7 WAR)

LIL STUMBLERS (2 for -2.4 WAR)
1978 Clint Hurdle (-1.2 WAR), 2009 Elvis Andrus (-1.2 WAR)

BIG DROPPERS (5 for -13.0 WAR)
1975 Claudell Washington (-3.7 WAR), 2013 Bryce Harper (-2.5 WAR), 2013 Manny Machado (-2.7 WAR), 2010 Jason Heyward (-2.8 WAR), 1978 Alan Trammell (-2.3 WAR)

So, if my math is correct, works out to an average improvement of .4 WAR. That would equal to a baseline projection of between 4-4.5 WAR for Chourio next year. Which is very fair imo and non-coincidentally around what you would get if you would combined Steamer's projection of Chourio's bat (119 wRC+) with ZiPS' projection of his glove (+7 DEF). 

If you extrapolate his numbers from June on as a young player who suddenly figured MLB pitching out (142 wRC+), you would get something resembling an 80th percentile projection of around 5.5-6 WAR

The last two categories do demonstrate that development isn't always linear. Chourio could take a slight to medium step back. I just don't see how you project it like ZIPS does considering the company he is in here (like half HOFers or future HOFers and most multitime all stars) and the fact that he's in the upper half of this cohort. It's also not like there's a major discrepancy between his peripheral stats and his actual stats which would possibly foreshadow regression. Relying on minor league numbers like ZiPS seemingly does here is super misleading imo when dealing with uber young, highly tooled up prospects like Chourio who were pushed aggressively throughout the minors. 

 

[markedman5]

 

[DR28]

21 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

REALLY hope Garrett stays healthy as I see him as Jarren Duran clone.

[sveumrules]

Earliest version of FanGraphs Playoff Odds are live with the NLC looking like this...

CHI: 84.4 W | 42.7% winDIV
MIL: 81.5 W | 24.2% winDIV
STL: 78.5 W | 11.9% winDIV
PIT: 78.2 W | 11.3% winDIV
CIN: 77.7 W | 9.8% winDIV

Focusing on the Brewers win projection, we know they are an MLB best +71 wins versus the FG preseason totals for the eight full seasons in their database. No doubt it's not just as easy as adding nine wins and saying cool, the Brewers are winning 90+ again, but maybe we can see where they might be getting underestimated (as they have been in the past).

Let's start on offense.  Last year, the Brewers 27.2 WAR ranked 5th in MLB. Their component rankings were 27.5 batting runs (10th), 32.0 fielding runs (6th), and 19.7 runs on the bases (1st).

Of course, the main concern has been losing Willy Adames. He contributed 16.0 batting runs in 2024. But we're also "subtracting" Gary Sanchez (-1.3), Owen Miller (-3.0), Joey Wiemer (-3.4), and hopefully Jake Bauers (-5.3) from the ledger as well. Their -13.0 combined batting runs cancel out a good portion of what Willy contributed. 

Somewhat interestingly, the FG depth charts project the 2025 Brewers for 23.9 batting runs, with that 3.6 run loss from last year pretty close to the 3.0 run loss arrived upon with the quick & dirty math in the preceding paragraph. On the other two components they are projecting the 2025 Brewers for +8.2 base running and +9.4 fielding.

So for the sake of argument, let's say they are right about the batting. It will take a step back from last year, but not collapse completely with the loss of Adames. On the other side of the coin, the base running and fielding are projected something like 34 runs worse than last year. That seems kind of harsh, especially considering Willy was abysmal on defense and Durbin is a speed demon. Pretty easy to see the Brewers adding three to four wins on the projections here.

On the pitching side the depth charts like the rotation for 891 IP of 3.98 ERA | 4.10 FIP good for 12.0 WAR. That is a pretty strong projection for a rotation that posted 794 IP of 4.09 ERA | 4.52 FIP last year which shook out to 7.3 fWAR and 10.9 rWAR. At the same time, we know the Brewers rotation has posted a -0.42 ERA/FIP gap over the last two years, quite a bit larger than the projected -0.12 gap. Could be a win or two on the table here too.

The 2025 bullpen is projected for 3.1 WAR. The last two years the Brewers bullpen has posted 10.6 fWAR (8th), 20.0 rWAR (1st), and +24.87 WPA (1st). Now of course Devin Williams accounted for 2.7 fWAR, 4.3 rWAR, and +6.18 WPA all by himself, and he gone. But even so, the Brewers could regress all the way down from 8.5 rWAR in 2023 and 11.5 rWAR in 2024 to around six rWAR in 2025 and still come in a three wins ahead of the projection.

So putting it all together, plus three to four wins over the projections on base running / defense, another one or two on the rotation, plus three more on the bullpen (even with heavy regression baked in) gets you to plus seven to ten wins, or something like 88 to 92 wins.

[Frisbee Slider]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Earliest version of FanGraphs Playoff Odds are live with the NLC looking like this...

CHI: 84.4 W | 42.7% winDIV
MIL: 81.5 W | 24.2% winDIV
STL: 78.5 W | 11.9% winDIV
PIT: 78.2 W | 11.3% winDIV
CIN: 77.7 W | 9.8% winDIV

I’m genuinely surprised Pittsburgh is ahead of Cincinnati. Doesn’t FanGraphs see how electric EDLC is?

[liveforoctober]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Earliest version of FanGraphs Playoff Odds are live with the NLC looking like this...

CHI: 84.4 W | 42.7% winDIV
MIL: 81.5 W | 24.2% winDIV
STL: 78.5 W | 11.9% winDIV
PIT: 78.2 W | 11.3% winDIV
CIN: 77.7 W | 9.8% winDIV

Focusing on the Brewers win projection, we know they are an MLB best +71 wins versus the FG preseason totals for the eight full seasons in their database. No doubt it's not just as easy as adding nine wins and saying cool, the Brewers are winning 90+ again, but maybe we can see where they might be getting underestimated (as they have been in the past).

Let's start on offense.  Last year, the Brewers 27.2 WAR ranked 5th in MLB. Their component rankings were 27.5 batting runs (10th), 32.0 fielding runs (6th), and 19.7 runs on the bases (1st).

Of course, the main concern has been losing Willy Adames. He contributed 16.0 batting runs in 2024. But we're also "subtracting" Gary Sanchez (-1.3), Owen Miller (-3.0), Joey Wiemer (-3.4), and hopefully Jake Bauers (-5.3) from the ledger as well. Their -13.0 combined batting runs cancel out a good portion of what Willy contributed. 

Somewhat interestingly, the FG depth charts project the 2025 Brewers for 23.9 batting runs, with that 3.6 run loss from last year pretty close to the 3.0 run loss arrived upon with the quick & dirty math in the preceding paragraph. On the other two components they are projecting the 2025 Brewers for +8.2 base running and +9.4 fielding.

So for the sake of argument, let's say they are right about the batting. It will take a step back from last year, but not collapse completely with the loss of Adames. On the other side of the coin, the base running and fielding are projected something like 34 runs worse than last year. That seems kind of harsh, especially considering Willy was abysmal on defense and Durbin is a speed demon. Pretty easy to see the Brewers adding three to four wins on the projections here.

On the pitching side the depth charts like the rotation for 891 IP of 3.98 ERA | 4.10 FIP good for 12.0 WAR. That is a pretty strong projection for a rotation that posted 794 IP of 4.09 ERA | 4.52 FIP last year which shook out to 7.3 fWAR and 10.9 rWAR. At the same time, we know the Brewers rotation has posted a -0.42 ERA/FIP gap over the last two years, quite a bit larger than the projected -0.12 gap. Could be a win or two on the table here too.

The 2025 bullpen is projected for 3.1 WAR. The last two years the Brewers bullpen has posted 10.6 fWAR (8th), 20.0 rWAR (1st), and +24.87 WPA (1st). Now of course Devin Williams accounted for 2.7 fWAR, 4.3 rWAR, and +6.18 WPA all by himself, and he gone. But even so, the Brewers could regress all the way down from 8.5 rWAR in 2023 and 11.5 rWAR in 2024 to around six rWAR in 2025 and still come in a three wins ahead of the projection.

So putting it all together, plus three to four wins over the projections on base running / defense, another one or two on the rotation, plus three more on the bullpen (even with heavy regression baked in) gets you to plus seven to ten wins, or something like 88 to 92 wins.

Thanks for all of this work and effort.

I am also a bit perplexed at the overall drop. We didn't have Devin for half the year, so our bullpen numbers from last season include that. Moving from Rea -> Cortes is also a full 1 win bump. A healthy Mitchell, a healthy Yelich (knock on wood both) ... I am also very bullish that the Hoskins/Black combo will greatly outperform the Hoskins/Bauers combo from last year.

I am not mad at a projected step back, but the tumble that is predicted doesn't compute for me.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 1/5/2025 at 3:33 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

A few things here:

-LF and C seem way too low at first glance. Feel like ZIPS has to have Haase at replacement to sub replacement level and Yelich with some age/injury related decline. Because otherwise you'd have declines for Chourio and Contreras, and I don't know how you can reasonably project that, even at a 50% outcome level. 

-Very high on our SP. Seems like it pretty much assumes Woodruff returns to pre-injury form. So may be somewhat of a cancellation effect here between that and LF/C. 

-RP doesn't skip a beat without Devin. Reinforces how trading Devin was clearly the correct decision.

-We really need to add another Corner IF. Dunn/Durbin, Ortiz, Turang, and Hoskins ain't going to cut it in the IF. 

I think Haas is a weapon no one expects to be good who could really tear the leather off the ball this season when he plays.    He was one of the best hitters on the team when he got his shots and he catches well too.   I learned along time ago Brewers prognostication is written by people who must hate the  Brewers .  

[jesusoftheapes]

On 2/8/2025 at 11:30 AM, liveforoctober said:

Thanks for all of this work and effort.

I am also a bit perplexed at the overall drop. We didn't have Devin for half the year, so our bullpen numbers from last season include that. Moving from Rea -> Cortes is also a full 1 win bump. A healthy Mitchell, a healthy Yelich (knock on wood both) ... I am also very bullish that the Hoskins/Black combo will greatly outperform the Hoskins/Bauers combo from last year.

I am not mad at a projected step back, but the tumble that is predicted doesn't compute for me.

I think the Brewers will put up a big season again in 2025.  No one seems to be able to gauge the reasons this team wins games lately and this is no different .    The projected about the same for last seasons team and I like where the Brewers are right now and believe they have a better team than the 2024 team in progression alone.        The best part about predictions like this is that the Brewers always prove them wrong.    2025 will be no different .   I have faith in this Crew.  

[BigWoo53]

Now with the addition of Quintana I really like the Brewers rotation. Woodruff won't get to your projected innings imo as he probably isn't ready until mid-May at some point but I could see the Brewers going with 6-man rotation when Woodruff returns. 

The lineup looks very good if healthy. Hoskins could have a big bounce back year - even though he hit 26 homers last year. Mitchell has the frame to hit for power, it's about hitting the ball in the air more, the ball bounces off his bat. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Brian Kenny of MLB Network predicts 8 WAR season for Chourio