Packers 2025 offseason

[BrewerFan]

6 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Are they? Because the two biggest needs are a pass rusher, a distant #1 need IMO, and probably a receiver. They needed an offensive lineman after today so I have zero issues with that or depth at CB. But those aren't needle movers. 

I have a feeling that Gute thinks the WR room is fine. I'm sure we'll draft somebody in the 4th round. I hope that come August I'm not left praying that Van Ness turns into something. 

 

Yes. They are. If Hobbs plays the slot, you'll have Nixon, a guy who should be a slot, Valentine, a guy who probably projects better at slot, Hobbs and then Bullard who was your primary slot last year and you're playing a scheme that plays heavy man and a lot of cover 1 man. 

So if they don't bring back Jaire, I'd say they need to address their boundary CB position for Hafley to be able to play the type of defense he wants to. 

 

Your list, their biggest needs. Pass rusher. I agree, I've been agreeing, I thought a move for Garrett would be as close to Reggie as you could get. But who is that edge that you're going to get now? You'll draft one(or IDL who can rush the passer). 

Moving Jenkins to Center and finally addressing that position is a "needle mover. May have overpaid or maybe Banks will be better, but that's definitely a needle mover.

 

WR is less of a need than CB(especially without Jaire, but even with Jaire, they'll need young CBs). WR, I don't think a certain type of WR would help, but it'd have to be someone who can take the top off and tilt the field so they have to play with a safety over the top. The Packers problems were drops last year and the IOL on offense. If Wicks can play more like he did as a rookie(a ~5% drop% vs a 27% as a 2nd year player, or those were roughly the numbers I saw late in the year). 

 

I don't know what you do about the DL. Hope Covington can get them to play better? Wyatt should be  be good. I'd hope Gary will be again. Clark...he's played a lot of snaps. But DE...you're almost certainly going to have to draft and develop. Mosby played well, Cox Jr played...alright. But you're going to have to on Gary, LVN and probably a 1st rd pick. 

OL-I'd still like to see them take a stud OT if there was one there. Simmons would be the most likely, but I think he'll be gone.

Edge/DL-They'll obviously take a DT. They'll take an edge if there is an upgrade, but even that player is probably not going to immediately impact the team. LVN on the other hand, year 3, he should take another step.

WR/TE-This is a good group, they're young and need to just address the drops...as is often the case. 

CB-If Jaire is cut and they view Hobbs as a slot...they need a #1 and #2 CB. I'll assume with Bullard, Hobbs plays outside, but it's still a priority.

 

Other than that, a clear #1, elite edge rusher is something every team wants and it's why Myles Garrett gets 40M a year. I don't think we're getting him and I don't think we're trading for Hendrickson and guys like Mack took less to stay in LA, Bosa is going to SF, even Chase Young is getting 17M AAV from NOLA. 

 

For a team that was the #6 defense with a under-performing DL and #8 with the most drops in the league, I'd say finally sorting out the C and IOL positions and getting a good, physical CB leaves them without any huge holes. It doesn't elevate them to the Eagles, Lions or maybe even the Commanders level, but what moves were going to other than young players improving?

[jay87shot]

I don't mind either player but I do think both are relative overpays. Banks to me is slightly above average as a guard, a good player yes but for 19 million a year at guard I want a pro bowl caliber player and Banks hasn't been that. Hobbs again is a really good slot corner but the previous high for a slot corner was 10 million a year and he only has 3 picks in 4 years with 19 pass deflections (meh). Maybe we think he can play outside and will be getting pretty good value if that is the case. Again it seems like an overpay for a good but not great player.

I only look at missed opportunities for a short time but Dre Greenlaw for 3/35, Ryan Kelly for 2/18, James Daniels at 3/24, and even Chris Godwin at 3/66 look like pretty good deals to me. Even though most of those are coming off injuries or older.

[Joseph Zarr]

I think it's important to look at the actual guaranteed money and actual cap hits on these deals before we make any type of statements on their pay.

For example:

That seems more than fair?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Free agency is always an "overpay" because the market resets every year. That label is pretty much a joke to me because there is no comparison with prior years. It's apples to oranges. An overpay can't exist. The market is what the market is. 

I don't have a problem with the players or the financials. But I would push back that no, a left guard is not a needle mover, you were already one of the best rushing teams in football. He's fine, he's good, whatever, but it's not making the Packers incrementally better from last season. 

I'm sure the Packers will be ok, and be a winning team. I am just pretty meh on entering the season with Houdini Reed, Wicks, head case Doubs and Watson out 3/4 of the year. If they couldn't improve there, I was hoping for defense, but it looks like we are relying on the draft to get us over the hump, which sucks when you're picking late and haven't been good at it. 

I'm not remotely surprised, but I was really hoping for a big splash in the veteran pool. This is paradise compared to Ted Thompson, but I think this team really needs a superstar. They must think he's already on the roster. 

 

[JosephC]

33 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I don't mind either player but I do think both are relative overpays. Banks to me is slightly above average as a guard, a good player yes but for 19 million a year at guard I want a pro bowl caliber player and Banks hasn't been that.

Yeah, based on free agent rankings, I don't see it.  The article on nfl.com had Banks as the 10th best interior offensive lineman-

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-101-nfl-free-agents-of-2025-ranked-by-position-which-spots-have-most-least-depth

PFF had him ranked #72 on their free agent ranking-

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings

The 77 million ranks 6th among guards and the average per year of 19.25 ranks 7th among guards.

According to Pro Football Reference, Hobbs has only appeared in 35 games over the last 3 seasons with 29 starts.  I realize he's a slot cornerback so he is not going to be an automatic start for every game, but pretty big money to a guy who averages 11.7 games per season and 9.7 starts per season.

[OldHeidelberg]

With more teams having cap room these days free agency becomes more of a roster churn every year. Packers let Jones and Runyon go, sign Xavier and Jacobs. Myers and Slaton, Banks and Hobbs. We give up on some of our draft picks and bring in players other teams gave up on. I have faith Gutes gets the better of these deals but I think Hobbs is a bit of a head scratcher too. It's like they were just determined to get a CB and he was plan D.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

43 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

With more teams having cap room these days free agency becomes more of a roster churn every year. Packers let Jones and Runyon go, sign Xavier and Jacobs. Myers and Slaton, Banks and Hobbs. We give up on some of our draft picks and bring in players other teams gave up on. I have faith Gutes gets the better of these deals but I think Hobbs is a bit of a head scratcher too. It's like they were just determined to get a CB and he was plan D.

I think they "overvalue" relative to the market players with specific skillsets that they think fit what they do. Just in the little Googling I've done with Hobbs he seems to play very aggressively at the line and is a strong tackler. I think they see a use for him in which he'll flourish. Hafley has been pretty good at getting a lot out of players that others have looked past.

Banks is weirder to me but I trust them. Guard is generally seen as a secondary position and he doesn't really grade out exceptionally well but I don't trust those grades too much. I am guessing it had more to do with getting 5 guys playing at their strongest position on the line. Like I've said I don't have big issues with the moves. I was just hoping for one of the A listers. Oh well.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I think they "overvalue" relative to the market players with specific skillsets that they think fit what they do. Just in the little Googling I've done with Hobbs he seems to play very aggressively at the line and is a strong tackler. I think they see a use for him in which he'll flourish. Hafley has been pretty good at getting a lot out of players that others have looked past.

Banks is weirder to me but I trust them. Guard is generally seen as a secondary position and he doesn't really grade out exceptionally well but I don't trust those grades too much. I am guessing it had more to do with getting 5 guys playing at their strongest position on the line. Like I've said I don't have big issues with the moves. I was just hoping for one of the A listers. Oh well.

4/48 really isn't a big deal either. The GTD money is more significant.

Banks isn't a star, but getting Jenkins to Center is a big upgrade...but who did you want them to get?

Crosby was my first choice, then Garrett...both were long shots. Hendrickson would be a cool choice, but risky and very unlike the Packers. They want prime age players. He's not. Garrett wouldn't have been either, but at least closer and good enough to make an exception.

 

This wasn't an elite FA class. I don't think we found a huge difference maker...but I do think moving Jenkins to Center will make a pretty significant impact.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I think it's important to look at the actual guaranteed money and actual cap hits on these deals before we make any type of statements on their pay.

For example:

That seems more than fair?

I thought Banks got 63M GTD, no?

Has that changed or was that just GTD against injury?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

4/48 really isn't a big deal either. The GTD money is more significant.

Banks isn't a star, but getting Jenkins to Center is a big upgrade...but who did you want them to get?

Crosby was my first choice, then Garrett...both were long shots. Hendrickson would be a cool choice, but risky and very unlike the Packers. They want prime age players. He's not. Garrett wouldn't have been either, but at least closer and good enough to make an exception.

 

This wasn't an elite FA class. I don't think we found a huge difference maker...but I do think moving Jenkins to Center will make a pretty significant impact.

My point is that how significant can it be when Love was barely sacked and they ran for 2,500 yards? They fortified a position of strength, that at worst, struggled a bit when hit by injuries. But all they really achieved was a mild upgrade on swapping players. It doesn't address need.

I don't think OL was really holding the Packers back last season on a large scale. Jayden Reed disappeared for half the season, Doubs, to be harsh, I'd rather ship off somewhere because I think he's got mental issues, and Watson who would be great if he could stay on the field. They are banking on a major leap from one or more of those guys. One is going to miss most of the season. 

We have a draft. I am just not really excited about our WR upgrade being the 51st pick in the draft.

[JosephC]

Hobbs contract is up at OverTheCap

Yearly cap numbers-

2025 = $5,998,235

2026 = $13,050,000

2027 = $14,050,000

2028 = $14,700,000

[LouisEly]

10 hours ago, JosephC said:

Yeah, based on free agent rankings, I don't see it.  The article on nfl.com had Banks as the 10th best interior offensive lineman

https://www.nfl.com/news/dayo-odeyingbo-and-aaron-banks-headline-nfl-free-agents-who-could-make-more-money-than-you-think

Tom Pelissero nailed it:

After the Chiefs placed the franchise tag on Trey Smith, Banks became one of the top guards -- if not the position's headliner -- on the free-agent market. A second-round pick (No. 48 overall) out of Notre Dame in 2021, Banks allowed just one sack on 471 pass-blocking snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus' charting, while posting a career-high 67.2 PFF grade in 13 starts for the 49ers. Last March, the Panthers signed free-agent guard Robert Hunt to a whopping five-year, $100 million deal. If the market is right, Banks could land a contract in a similar range of $18 million to $20 million per season.

[JosephC]

The Packers have about 34.5 million in cap space when including the Hobbs contract and the upcoming rookie contracts.  If they release Alexander with a post-June 1 designation, that creates another 17 million in cap space, putting them up to about 51.5 million.  I would estimate the first year of the Banks contract will have a cap figure of about 9 million, but it could be higher since the word is they have put 63 million in the first three years (my guess is a 30 million dollar signing bonus, and then yearly earning of 1.5 million, 11.5 million, 20 million, 14 million...which would make the cap numbers 9 million, 19 million, 27.5 million, 21.5 million...but they could have balanced the first three years out more).  But if my 9 million dollar guess is in the ballpark, the Packers probably still have about 42.5 million in cap space left.  One would have to think that a Tom extension happens before the season starts, so I would set aside another 10-11 million for that.  So I still think they have another 31.5 million in cap space to play with.

[JosephC]

Another interesting thing about Banks.

Percentage of offensive snaps played.

2023 = 88.27%

2024 = 78.52%

2025 = 71.83%

[wallus]

I like the Hobbs signing quite a bit. I'm a little unsure on Banks but I am confident that he is better than Myers so it's an upgrade overall.

[LouisEly]

34 minutes ago, JosephC said:

Another interesting thing about Banks.

Percentage of offensive snaps played.

2023 = 88.27%

2024 = 78.52%

2025 = 71.83%

1) Do you have the lottery numbers for this fall as well?   I'll split the jackpot 50/50, maybe even going 40% me 60% you.  😜

B) According to Pro-Football-Reference, his offensive snap counts the last three years have been:

• 2022: 94%
• 2023: 89%
• 2024: 93%

[JosephC]

10 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

1) Do you have the lottery numbers for this fall as well?   I'll split the jackpot 50/50, maybe even going 40% me 60% you.  😜

B) According to Pro-Football-Reference, his offensive snap counts the last three years have been:

• 2022: 94%
• 2023: 89%
• 2024: 93%

Those are the snaps in the games he's played.  Overall snap count-

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2022-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2023-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2024-snap-counts.htm

[Sixtolezcano]

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yeah...that's a bit of an odd one to me, but...he's young and the Packers pro scouting is pretty good.

I think that Zach Tom price just went up. 4 years 100M would be a...pretty good deal.

And the plan is now what? Jenkins at Center? I know they love Tom and his potential there, but you're good with Banks/Jenkins/Rhyan/Tom on the rest of the OL and hoping Morgan can push Walker, make him better or be better. If you move Tom to Center, you could try Jenkins out there again. He was coming off the ACL the last time, but you'd more likely need Morgan and Walker at the OTs.

I sure hope they move Tom to left tackle at $25M/yr. Cuz it’s would be absolutely crazy to pay a RT that much money.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

21 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I sure hope they move Tom to left tackle at $25M/yr. Cuz it’s would be absolutely crazy to pay a RT that much money.

I personally think that is the thought at play. Give Tom the bag and move him to LT, then have Morgan slide in at RT. Walker has been solid, if not good at LT, but you can't pay everyone. I could see him as trade bait eventually.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

My point is that how significant can it be when Love was barely sacked and they ran for 2,500 yards? They fortified a position of strength, that at worst, struggled a bit when hit by injuries. But all they really achieved was a mild upgrade on swapping players. It doesn't address need.

I don't think OL was really holding the Packers back last season on a large scale. Jayden Reed disappeared for half the season, Doubs, to be harsh, I'd rather ship off somewhere because I think he's got mental issues, and Watson who would be great if he could stay on the field. They are banking on a major leap from one or more of those guys. One is going to miss most of the season. 

We have a draft. I am just not really excited about our WR upgrade being the 51st pick in the draft.

We just don't agree on the OL then. Sack numbers can be on the QB.

Love threw a LOT of balls off his back foot and was getting hit a lot and Josh Myers was not good and he was leaving. It's also the 2nd most important position IMO...just ahead of DL.

I like our pass catchers more than our OL and Josh Myers just NEEDED to be replaced. Now what's the question? If Walker can improve or if Morgan steps up and earns the LT job, you have an elite OL. I would have made that Tunsil trade if it were up to me. Tunsil, Jenkins/?/Morgan or Rhyan/Tom, that would have been worth it also. I don't think you can just go by total rushing yards and sacks and grade an OL like that.

If it was just Banks...I'd agree, but it's the move for Jenkins and the larger picture that makes me like this signing.

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I thought Banks got 63M GTD, no?

Has that changed or was that just GTD against injury?

Pretty sure what I've seen since the signing is the only thing guaranteed is the signing bonus and that the $63 Million total is what is tentatively contracted to have been paid out after the three years are through. I do not think that entire money is guaranteed, no. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Back to the Hobbs deal. This is precisely what I mean as the numbers start to really come out:

This is the Packers with Russ Ball managing these contractual agreements:

And, on the player front, some good news for AJ Dillon. I wish him the absolute best wherever he lands.

 

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I personally think that is the thought at play. Give Tom and bag and move him to LT, then have Morgan slide in at RT. Walker has been solid, if not good at LT, but you can't pay everyone. I could see him as trade bait eventually.

You may be right. The only reason Tom wasn't a LT was they thought Bakh was coming back and had Walker and Nijman working in at LT and Tom won the RT job.

I don't think paying a RT 25M a year would be the problem though. Not only is it not as much money as it sounds like given the Cap is growing, RT is only marginally less important than LT at this point. You see teams like the Chargers drafting Joe Alt with an AP LT or the Giants did the same despite itt not working with Neal, but bookend OTs? I'd love to have two worth paying 25M a year. It'll seem like an even better deal in 4 years when the Cap passes 350M.

Also, I just came up with a round number for Tom. He could easily get 30M AAV and be well worth it. I'd actually guess they keep the 4th year and total deal comes out to about 25M per but with the 1.5 or whatever he'll make this year.

 

But RT is a premier position either way. Many of the top pass rushers are lining up on the left(so over the RT for the offense) to get better match-ups.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Rasheed Walker only fell to the 7th round because of doubts about his knee coming out of school otherwise he was a 2nd or 3rd round projection. He is a monster and there are reels of him last year just chucking dudes with one hand. 

The Packers already started moving Morgan to guard last season. I don't think you take a guy who has performed really well at RT and start getting cute with him. Maybe it's true they can't pay all of them, but I feel pretty confident that Walker is the tackle and it's Rhyan/Morgan to fight for the guard spot. 

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Rasheed Walker only fell to the 7th round because of doubts about his knee coming out of school otherwise he was a 2nd or 3rd round projection. He is a monster and there are reels of him last year just chucking dudes with one hand. 

The Packers already started moving Morgan to guard last season. I don't think you take a guy who has performed really well at RT and start getting cute with him. Maybe it's true they can't pay all of them, but I feel pretty confident that Walker is the tackle and it's Rhyan/Morgan to fight for the guard spot. 

There were question marks on the knee, yes, but I'm pretty sure there were question marks about his maturity and his ability to meet the challenge of a professional environment. At least I think I remember there were? 😅