Packers 2025 offseason

[HarryDoyle]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think the WR group will step up, but I also don't see Gutey going after a 30 year old pass rusher for the draft capital it'd take and then the money. 

I think he's serious about winning, he's just not going to go LA Rams mode to do it. He's not going to be that aggressive but he's far more aggressive than Thompson and on balance, he's pretty aggressive in free agency. We're just going to have to try and figure it out with another signing or the draft, but I doubt he'd make a move like THAT. 

Also...do you want to give up at least one 1st+ and pay him 35M+ per year...at 30 years old?

Absolutely I do. Hendrickson would instantly make this team a Super Bowl contender. I would say bringing in an elite pass rusher is ramping up the urgency instead of an offensive guard and a slot corner. (Not that I hate those signings.) It wouldn't take giving up more than one first round pick, and let's face it, Gute's track record with first round picks isn't exactly stellar. And any contract the team would give him would for all intents and purposes would be a one year and let's see contract like they give everyone else. 

[HarryDoyle]

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Pete Dougherty had an article yesterday about Hendrickson and the statistics for pass rushers over the age of 30.

Here's a snippet:

He goes on to say he believes a 2nd round pick would be too much to give up given all of the information above and having to pay big bucks for a contract extension. I think Cincy had originally been asking for a 1st rounder, someone probably will pay the 2nd round pick and I doubt it's going to be Green Bay.

A second would be a steal, and let's not pretend that 30-year-olds are relics. 

[SeaBass]

59 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

A second would be a steal, and let's not pretend that 30-year-olds are relics. 

He literally just cited the stats for the very best pass rushers in NFL history at age 31 and beyond. Don't know what else to tell you.

"no player has averaged 15 sacks over the two seasons they turned 31 and 32"

So yeah, that's a zero, nada, zip.

Is there a chance he keeps a pace like the 7 exceptions he listed that kept an average as high as 13 sacks? Sure. But that's 7 guys out of every single player ever. Seems like long odds.

Also, you realize it's Brian Gutekunst you're talking about facing a decision to trade a 2nd round pick? More long odds.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

Absolutely I do. Hendrickson would instantly make this team a Super Bowl contender. I would say bringing in an elite pass rusher is ramping up the urgency instead of an offensive guard and a slot corner. (Not that I hate those signings.) It wouldn't take giving up more than one first round pick, and let's face it, Gute's track record with first round picks isn't exactly stellar. And any contract the team would give him would for all intents and purposes would be a one year and let's see contract like they give everyone else. 

I don't think there's any chance you're getting Hendrickson for a "one year and lets talk" type deal.

He's 30 and looking to cash in.

I think you'd be paying closer to 4/130 with 85M GTD. Something in that range. Otherwise the Bengals would have just paid him.

I also think it'll cost more than one 1st as it's been reported the Bengals asking price is "insane." I don't know what he'll end up going for and I'd be excited to get a guy like that...it just feels like a more desperate move than we need right now. A team like Buffalo make more sense to me.

 

If you end up being right and it's "just" a 1st and a 1 year deal, I'd completely agree with you.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SeaBass said:

He literally just cited the stats for the very best pass rushers in NFL history at age 31 and beyond. Don't know what else to tell you.

"no player has averaged 15 sacks over the two seasons they turned 31 and 32"

So yeah, that's a zero, nada, zip.

Is there a chance he keeps a pace like the 7 exceptions he listed that kept an average as high as 13 sacks? Sure. But that's 7 guys out of every single player ever. Seems like long odds.

Also, you realize it's Brian Gutekunst you're talking about facing a decision to trade a 2nd round pick? More long odds.

He cited a few players sacks, but if you can get Hendrickson for a 2nd...I think you have to do that. 15 sacks is DPOY caliber. We don't need that. 

 The biggest off-season acquisition in Packers history...arguably is Reggie(certainly the best defensive player) and he was 32. If you knew Hendrickson would get 10 sacks, ~70 pressures and 20-30 QB hits a season for the next 2-3 years...of course you'd do that. You'd take TJ Watt right now for a 2nd...

I think Gute does that in a heartbeat. I just can't imagine Cincy giving him up for "just" a 2nd...even as valuable as a 2nd is.

I think he'll age like Calais Campbell did through ~33-34. That's worth a 2nd and a 4/100M deal. I just don't believe either of those, the compensation to the Bengals or Hendrickson is close to what he'd cost. If it was, I'd be with @HarryDoyleon this.

You'd also have to consider how much better Rashan Gary could produce in this scenario. It's just like the OL that has to slide to the left to help Walker because Tom is so good. If you have Hendrickson, they're sliding to his side and now a 4 man pass rush can get home and if you're sending Cooper or a slot, you could have that overwhelming type defense. 

 

Speaking of Calais Campbell...he's still playing and at a high level. I'd definitely sign him for one year. 1/6.5M?

[CheezWizHed]

On 3/13/2025 at 1:50 AM, BrewerFan said:

This is a big year for Musgrave. He started out well, Kraft was hurt and then he got hurt and he hasn't really been healthy enough to get going, but he can create a lot of mismatches.

Yes, this is kind of a make-or-break year for Musgrave and he is probably the best chance to amp up our offense this year.  We had good production from our Kraft this year, but there is a lot of room to improve our 2 TE sets and passing off that set (seeing how run heavy we can be).  

Wicks is probably the second-best chance to improve our offense, but unless he goes pro bowl this year, I don't see him moving the needle that much from what we had last year. 

I don't see how Lloyd will make much of a difference compared to Jacobs and Wilson.  Perhaps he gets a few more pass receptions or gadget plays given his speed... but unless there is an injury I don't see him getting many opportunities this year.  

[JosephC]

There are reports that Hendrickson is shooting for Myles Garrett money...4 years, 160 million dollars...and doesn't appear to be budging much.  If he is stuck on, let's say 150 million at a minimum (pure speculation), that is too rich for my blood.  We are probably looking at a 4 year deal with a void year added right from the get go.  60 million signing bonus.  Yearly cap numbers would be something like 14 million in 2025, 32 million in 2026, 41.5 million in 2027, 50.5 million in 2028 and then 12 million in the void year in 2029.  If something happened (injury, declining performance) and it was determined it was best to part ways after 2027, that would be 36 million in dead money....same situation but after 2028, 24 million in dead money.  I'm used to the idea that business in the NFL is just going to result in yearly dead money hits of 15, 20, 25 million per season...but potentially having one guy with that type of dead money hit is pretty ugly to think about.

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Yes, this is kind of a make-or-break year for Musgrave and he is probably the best chance to amp up our offense this year.  We had good production from our Kraft this year, but there is a lot of room to improve our 2 TE sets and passing off that set (seeing how run heavy we can be).  

Wicks is probably the second-best chance to improve our offense, but unless he goes pro bowl this year, I don't see him moving the needle that much from what we had last year. 

I don't see how Lloyd will make much of a difference compared to Jacobs and Wilson.  Perhaps he gets a few more pass receptions or gadget plays given his speed... but unless there is an injury I don't see him getting many opportunities this year.  

I think Musgrave can definitely make an impact, but I think Wicks and Lloyd can as well. 

Wicks had his drop rate increase by 5X last year. His rookie year he was very good on 3rd down.

Both years 39 receptions...rookie year 58 targets, last year 76. He's had an every other year thing going back to UVA, but if he's good this year, I think that keeps the chains moving and he's a good #2 WR. 

And Lloyd, I think he brings a new dimension to the offense. LaFleur was pretty excited about him. I think the plan was for him to be the #2 back, run that outside zone that they went away from last year and he's good in pass protection. He just had a miserable rookie season last year. Injury and then he was expected back and he had Appendicitis and they petitioned the league for an exemption for him.

 

I don't think we need any of them to be big game changers though, just each of them contributing and staying on the field. Musgrave is going to that same Madison training...thing that Watson and Stokes did where they determined Stokes right leg was 18% stronger which left his left leg more susceptible to injury or whatever it was exactly. Makes me think maybe we should be proactive and send guys there before they get hurt(or maybe hire them and bring them up to GB and put them on staff).

Outside an impact WR I don't think any one player is going to push us over the top.

It'll have to be Love playing a little sharper. 
Hopefully Morgan being healthy. A big shift in the OL with a competent Center. We led the league in drops last year, just middle of the pack would be huge. Lloyd just getting 5-7 touches would give a different look. It would have been great to get DK and fill out the WR core, but this offense was on fire in '23. 

[yourout]

Watching a replay of the last packer super Bowl win and you kind of forget just how good A-Rod was in his prime.

Man he could sling it.

 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

11 hours ago, yourout said:

Watching a replay of the last packer super Bowl win and you kind of forget just how good A-Rod was in his prime.

Man he could sling it.

 

 

I can still remember being at a bar in Dinkytown Minneapolis watching A-Rod come into a game at Dallas in the regular season - spelling an injured Favre (? I was mildly sippy sippy by that point as a younger lad). He nearly completed the comeback. I knew then and there - and, I swear I remember I was obnoxiously pontificating aloud and pointing to the big screens: "The Future! That is the Future right there! Aaron fricken Rodgers!". Part of me was praying we could just move on from the interception buffets of late-career Favre, part of me had probably drabk a couple too many, but the other part of me saw what was possible in the years ahead if the stars aligned. Watching the Atlanta playoff game in their dome was the absolute drive it home moment for me. That performance was unbelievably good given the context and given how dominant that Falcons team had been.

To your point, though, absolutely agreed. It's so easy to forget with the silly storylines that have bled into the conversations around him - some his doing, no doubt, but the vast majority I would politely opine are just frivolous nonsense. In his prime he was an unbelievable talent. And, in that same prime, he was annually considered the best player in the entire League by a good margin. We were blessed as fans to witness his greatness.

[adambr2]

Man, you really have to squint hard to believe that we’ve improved in any meaningful way, especially in relation to our division rivals. The addition of Hobbs but with the loss of Ballentine and Stokes (and still probably Alexander) is a net negative for the secondary. Overpaid for Banks and let Myers walk for next to nothing. Yet another year of absolutely no veteran help at WR for Love.

I know, I know, still have the draft. But let’s be honest, we’ll be prioritizing athletic projects over any immediate impact guys, anyway. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a Cooper type impact in the 2nd or 3rd.

Really underwhelming offseason so far for Gute.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Man, you really have to squint hard to believe that we’ve improved in any meaningful way, especially in relation to our division rivals.

Who have our division rivals lost as free agents?  What was their net gain, factoring in free agent signings as well as losses?

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Overpaid for Banks and let Myers walk for next to nothing.

After watching the playoff game against the Eagles, would you have prioritized WR or IOL?  How would you have addressed IOL - who and how much?

And what free agent that any team has signed hasn't been overpaid?

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Who have our division rivals lost as free agents?  What was their net gain, factoring in free agent signings as well as losses?

After watching the playoff game against the Eagles, would you have prioritized WR or IOL?  How would you have addressed IOL - who and how much?

And what free agent that any team has signed hasn't been overpaid?

It didn’t have to be either/or. There is/was money for both. It’s hard for me to say exactly what I would have done because I don’t know what would or wouldn’t have been accepted, but I would have gone 25M/AAV for Godwin, which is more than he got to stay in Tampa. Kupp was also a reasonable target for what he got. Christian Kirk would have been a reasonable trade target. I would not have traded for DK and given him what he got.

Yes, there have been losses by division rivals of course, like Keenan Allen for example but they’ve been more than offset by their gains, particularly in Minnesota. Detroit is already gaining a healthy Hutch back which is the biggest offseason acquisition of any division team. 

Stokes and Myers are the first two guys who come to mind as free agents who most definitely didn’t get overpaid. Myers got what, a year at less than $4M? Very surprisingly underwhelming market for him. We all know darn well that if we had given Myers 3/30 a week ago, 75% of Packer fans would have said, “man, way to go Gute!”

[RedStickBrew]

Fowler: Mecole Hardman to sign a 1-year deal with the Packers.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It didn’t have to be either/or. There is/was money for both. It’s hard for me to say exactly what I would have done because I don’t know what would or wouldn’t have been accepted, but I would have gone 25M/AAV for Godwin, which is more than he got to stay in Tampa. Kupp was also a reasonable target for what he got. Christian Kirk would have been a reasonable trade target. I would not have traded for DK and given him what he got.

Yes, there have been losses by division rivals of course, like Keenan Allen for example but they’ve been more than offset by their gains, particularly in Minnesota. Detroit is already gaining a healthy Hutch back which is the biggest offseason acquisition of any division team. 

Stokes and Myers are the first two guys who come to mind as free agents who most definitely didn’t get overpaid. Myers got what, a year at less than $4M? Very surprisingly underwhelming market for him. We all know darn well that if we had given Myers 3/30 a week ago, 75% of Packer fans would have said, “man, way to go Gute!”

I couldn't agree more. They really talked this off-season up like it was time to make moves and we got the Ted Thompson treatment. A no-name scrub WR today is the cherry on top. They are not a lick better than they were to end the season, arguably worse because Watson and a few others are gone. And I guess we are supposed to hope for the draft to put us over the hump. Incredibly disappointing.

I really hope Rodgers goes to Minnesota and beats us twice.  

[adambr2]

52 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I couldn't agree more. They really talked this off-season up like it was time to make moves and we got the Ted Thompson treatment. A no-name scrub WR today is the cherry on top. They are not a lick better than they were to end the season, arguably worse because Watson and a few others are gone. And I guess we are supposed to hope for the draft to put us over the hump. Incredibly disappointing.

I really hope Rodgers goes to Minnesota and beats us twice.  

Oh, we’re definitely worse. We will still likely lose Jaire. The pass rush hasn’t been upgraded at all. We’re pinning our hopes of that being anything to a 3rd year LVN breakout. Not likely. Love’s shiniest new toy is Mecole Hardman. Sad. Watson is very unlikely to be effective at all in ‘25 if he even plays. 

O-line is probably a wash.

I’m the furthest thing from a “go out and sign every big FA” guy, but some moves were definitely needed, and the best we could do was a high price on an average guard and average nickel, and a bottom of the roster return man/#5. After the urgency garbage that Gute basically lied to us about after the season. 

Oh sure, I’m sure we’ll fix it all in the draft, where Gute’s best ever 1st round pick is a malcontent corner who has played half the games the last 4 years. Can’t wait to see what project we take in the 1st that we can’t expect to see take regular snaps until 2027.

But hey, at least we can use the “we have the youngest roster in the NFL” excuse for yet another season.

[JosephC]

Hardman, another guy who always seem to be hurt.  

[CheezWizHed]

Why are we counting Jaire when comparing last year's team?  He hasn't had a meaningful contribution for 2 years.  

Hobbs over Stokes/Ballentine is an improvement.  Hobbs over Jaire (of 2024) is an improvement because Jaire didn't do anything. 

And for those that forgot... the "Ted Thompson" treatment was to sign zero free agents so we get more compensation for draft picks. 

I'd be surprised if a single Packer fan would've wanted Myers resigned for starter money.  At $4M...sure.  But I doubt he would've come back at that point.  I'm sure he needed a restart.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Why are we counting Jaire when comparing last year's team?  He hasn't had a meaningful contribution for 2 years.  

Hobbs over Stokes/Ballentine is an improvement.  Hobbs over Jaire (of 2024) is an improvement because Jaire didn't do anything. 

And for those that forgot... the "Ted Thompson" treatment was to sign zero free agents so we get more compensation for draft picks. 

I'd be surprised if a single Packer fan would've wanted Myers resigned for starter money.  At $4M...sure.  But I doubt he would've come back at that point.  I'm sure he needed a restart.

We signed 2 guys out of necessity because we let the same 2 walk. We did jack to improve our weaknesses. 

I will always hold out hope that there is development of rostered players so yeah, it's possible we show up better. I do not however see the talent necessary to win big along the defensive line. It's much more believable that a WR has a strong season and emerges.

[adambr2]

9 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Why are we counting Jaire when comparing last year's team?  He hasn't had a meaningful contribution for 2 years.  

Hobbs over Stokes/Ballentine is an improvement.  Hobbs over Jaire (of 2024) is an improvement because Jaire didn't do anything. 

And for those that forgot... the "Ted Thompson" treatment was to sign zero free agents so we get more compensation for draft picks. 

I'd be surprised if a single Packer fan would've wanted Myers resigned for starter money.  At $4M...sure.  But I doubt he would've come back at that point.  I'm sure he needed a restart.

I highly doubt most Packer fans had even heard of Nate Hobbs prior to a week ago. The money he got blew his projections out of the water. Not that PFF is the end all be all, but Hobbs graded out at 61.4 last year … Eric Stokes was 61.3.

I think you could probably make a pretty strong case that the secondary is in no better shape, no worse shape … adding Hobbs but losing Stokes and a depth piece like Ballentine.

Look, I’m sure they feel Hobbs is a good fit for Hafley’s defense and I’m sure they have plans for him. I’m not saying he’s a bad addition. But if we’re honest with ourselves, come on, Nate Hobbs, Aaron Banks and Mecole Hardman are not moving the needle one bit from the team we saw in January. 

And if you want to say we can’t count Jaire from last year’s team, that’s fine, but then we need to do the same with Watson, because we can’t bank on him for this year’s team at all. On an offense that already lacked weapons, and we haven’t added any. 

[GAME05]

Didn't we spend a full season saying that Myers wasn't that good? So now our offensive line is better and a year of learning from that 1st rounder makes it deeper, too. 

We've got big extensions coming up, so any cap money can go toward that or being active once we come up on Spring Training roster cuts.

Right now we don't HAVE to cut Jaire, either.

Tough to say we've gotten better, but not significantly worse, either. We were 11-6 last year, though, not exactly the dregs of the NFC.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, GAME05 said:

Didn't we spend a full season saying that Myers wasn't that good? So now our offensive line is better and a year of learning from that 1st rounder makes it deeper, too. 

We've got big extensions coming up, so any cap money can go toward that or being active once we come up on Spring Training roster cuts.

Right now we don't HAVE to cut Jaire, either.

Tough to say we've gotten better, but not significantly worse, either. We were 11-6 last year, though, not exactly the dregs of the NFC.

I think everyone assumed we’d lose Myers. I don’t think there’s a soul that thought he was 1/3.5M bad and wouldn’t have taken him back for that at least for the depth.

As far as assuming the O-line is better because Morgan has a year in the system, we always do this with our youth. We always make these assumptions that just because our players are young, they will get better. That’s why we naturally assumed we’d get better and contend for a Super Bowl last year, and we didn’t. And I know people will say “we went from 9-8 to 11-6, we did improve!” No, no we didn’t. We improved drastically from the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2023. We regressed from the playoff team of January 2024 to the one of January 2025. 

And I’m not saying Morgan is a bust and can’t play, but we have to stop making these blind assumptions that all this youth is going to cause us to automatically improve — it feels like that mindset has infected the front office and has kept us from going and adding anything of significance. Where was the improvement from 2023 to 2024 from LVN? Reed? Wicks? Wyatt? Heck, where was the improvement from Jordan Love?

Also, who are all these players that we need to earmark for big extensions? Walker? Doubs? Watson? I hope names like these aren’t the reason we haven’t been very active this offseason, or we are going to continue to be a fringe playoff team rather than a Super Bowl contender.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I am not sure we regressed much if at all. I just think the NFC was drastically better last year than the year before. Perhaps if you're not getting better you're getting worse, but I think we were pretty much the same with the biggest difference being that Love regressed. Our defense was better, but overall kind of a wash.

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I highly doubt most Packer fans had even heard of Nate Hobbs prior to a week ago. The money he got blew his projections out of the water. Not that PFF is the end all be all, but Hobbs graded out at 61.4 last year … Eric Stokes was 61.3.

I think you could probably make a pretty strong case that the secondary is in no better shape, no worse shape … adding Hobbs but losing Stokes and a depth piece like Ballentine.

Look, I’m sure they feel Hobbs is a good fit for Hafley’s defense and I’m sure they have plans for him. I’m not saying he’s a bad addition. But if we’re honest with ourselves, come on, Nate Hobbs, Aaron Banks and Mecole Hardman are not moving the needle one bit from the team we saw in January. 

And if you want to say we can’t count Jaire from last year’s team, that’s fine, but then we need to do the same with Watson, because we can’t bank on him for this year’s team at all. On an offense that already lacked weapons, and we haven’t added any. 

I'm sure I heard Hobbs name when we played LA..er Oak...uh, I mean Las Vegas, but you are correct that he certainly wasn't on my radar nor can I judge how well he will play. But looking at Hobbs' PFF history and other non-PFF metrics, I think it is pretty easy to see he is better than Stokes. 

Ballentine will be replaced by one of our development CBs from last year, a random vet min guy we will eventually pick up, or a rookie.  Not a high bar to replace. 

Certainly a healthy and happy Jaire changes that picture, but he has been neither one the last two years, so we can't count him in the equation of "improvement from 2024". 

So I think the CB situation has improved; Not drastically, but better.  Another high draft pick and the group could be very good. 

I didn't say anything about Watson or the WR group; which is clearly going to be worse unless someone makes a MAJOR improvement this year. There has to be a draft pick coming to that group. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I am not sure we regressed much if at all. I just think the NFC was drastically better last year than the year before. Perhaps if you're not getting better you're getting worse, but I think we were pretty much the same with the biggest difference being that Love regressed. Our defense was better, but overall kind of a wash.

It’s just hard for me to compare 2023 to 2024 because they followed such a drastically different model.

The 2023 Packers were one of the worst teams in the NFL at their worst, and probably a fringe Super Bowl contender at their best.

The 2024 Packers were about as consistent as they come. Good enough to beat the slouches, not good enough to beat the very high end teams.