William Contreras Extension

[sveumrules]

There's been plenty of talk over the last couple years about how much it might cost to maybe extend William Contreras, if he's even interested in doing so before free agency, and/or if Mark A & the rest of the ownership group would even sign off on such an expenditure.

I figured with Cal "Big Dumper" Raleigh signing a six year, $105M extension on the same free agency timeline as Contreras it's as good a time as any to put a bunch of information in one place and try to figure out what that number might be for William (& if it's even a good idea).

Let's start with a comparison over the last two years...

Contreras 
1,290 PA | 128 wRC+ | 11.2 WAR
115 AVG+ | 129 BB+ | 91 K+ | 110 ISO+
+11 DRS | +17.7 FRM | 19.9 CS%

Raleigh
1,197 PA | 115 wRC+ | 9.7 WAR
93 AVG+ | 126 BB+ | 122 K+ | 138 ISO+
+19 DRS | +21.2 FRM | 27.1 CS%

Contreras comes out ahead mostly on account of being a better all around hitter versus Raleigh being more of an all or nothing 3TO guy. Raleigh has been a more consistent defender, especially with regards to controlling the run game. The other big factor is that Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh.

FanGraphs had a nice article today on the Raleigh extension and the larger landscape of historical catcher compensation. In it they note that Cal is only the 5th catcher to ever sign a $100M+ deal, so I thought I'd see how past top end catcher contracts turned out, or are turning out for the active guys.

Joe Mauer (8/184)
Before (Age 21-27)
3,578 PA | 135 wRC+ | 34.3 WAR
After (Age 28-35)
4,382 PA | 113 wRC+ | 19.2 WAR
[Mauer got the concussion in the first year of his extension, had two more prime level seasons as a part time catcher in 2012-13, then settled in as a fine (but massively overpaid) first baseman for the last five years of the deal.]

Buster Posey (9/167)
Before (Age 23-25)
1,238 PA | 146 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR
After (Age 26-34)
4,352 PA | 125 wRC+ | 42.7 WAR
[Delivered big for the first five years of the deal, dipped down to above average level in 2018-19, came back for one last big year after skipping 2020.]

Will Smith (10/140)
Before (Age 24-28)
1,966 PA | 128 wRC+ | 15.7 WAR
So Far (Age 29)
544 PA | 111 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR
[Smith's wRC+ has been arrow down pretty much from the jump with a combined 143 wRC+ over his small samples in 2019-20 then a 130 in 2021, 127 in 2022, 118 in 2023, 111 last year. It's the Dodgers so $14M a year for the next nine years is couch cushion change, but this isn't looking like a deal many of the other 29 teams would jump to take on even though he remains one of the Top 10 backstops in the game.]

JT Realmuto (5/115.5)
Before (Age 24-29)
2,910 PA | 110 wRC+ | 19.4 WAR
So Far (Age 30-33)
2,052 PA | 112 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR
[JTR had two prime level seasons to start his record AAV deal, and has followed it up with two closer to average ones heading into his walk year.]

*Yasmani Grandal (5/91.25)*
Before (Age 25-29)
2,326 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 23.4 WAR
After (Age 30-34)
1,982 PA | 109 wRC+ | 10.4 WAR
[This one's kinda cheating since the 5/91.25 is combining two separate contracts and was actually closer to $80M after accounting for the pro-rated 2020, but Yasmani essentially kept rolling for the first three years of big money before falling off the cliff for ages 33-34. He had a nice bounce back last year in a part time role with PIT but remains unsigned.]

So, taking all that into account, it looks like counting on even the very best catchers to be productive much past their 30th birthday is a dicey proposition.

As far as how much Contreras would want to sign on the dotted line? I think he wants the total money and AAV records which at this point would essentially be 8/200. An MVP calibre season (followed by some postseason heroics, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves) would go a long way in adding to that pursuit.

[owbc]

I thought this was a pretty smart mutual move by the Mariners and Raleigh — the Mariners lock in a fan favorite for a relatively good price and Raleigh, who surely is aware of the prospects for older catchers hitting FA, gets a nice payday. 

Having watched Raleigh here in Seattle it’s clear that his preparation and game management is second to none so the Mariners will be fine with below-average offense in his 30s as long as he hits for power and continues to be an asset defensively. From the Brewers side, I think you’re hoping for more offensive value from Contreras than the Mariners expect from Raleigh. 
 

If I’m the Brewers I would absolutely come to the table if Contreras wants to talk, but I would have a similar dollar/year number in mind as the Raleigh contract and be thinking more about a 1B conversion. Mediocre 1B play is costing us $18 million this year…

 

 

[igor67]

Just in general catchers don't age well. Even for HOF level catchers it is more that they were great in their peak years and can still produce enough to be productive in the line-up. Not someone I want to sign long term.

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

If I’m the Brewers I would absolutely come to the table if Contreras wants to talk, but I would have a similar dollar/year number in mind as the Raleigh contract

My back of the napkin math here was since Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh that means a seven year contract takes him through the same age.

But William has been better than Cal on top of that, so I'd think that means eight years at a higher AAV.

I believe only four catchers have ever cracked $20M AAV - Yadi (3/60), Salvy (4/82), Mauer (8/184) and JTR (5/115.5).

Maybe William would go for something like 8/175 on the low end? That would get him the 2nd largest total value, 3rd highest AAV and exactly double what his brother signed for,

 

[Jose Cardenal]

Seems pretty likely the Brewers will either:

1) Move to Quero as early as next offseason or more likely before 2027 and trade Contreras for a nice return

2) If Quero does not bounce back from injury (or give Brewers confidence in being productive starting C), hold onto Contreras through his Arb years like Adames and start over in 2028.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think a bigger question would be if Contreras would be open to a role where he'd be the primary DH/backup catcher on a roster, enabling him to have a longer career even if it meant devaluing his AAV by not being viewed as an everyday starting catcher.  In that scenario, I'd entertain the Brewers giving him a longterm extension.  If he wants to play everyday behind the plate then I'd trade him this  or next offseason for the best prospect haul you can get.

 

Then again, the Brewers could just play the arbitration game and have Contreras the next 3 seasons before watching him leave in free agency as a 30 yr old catcher who some other team will pay huge dollars to watch him decline....I'd honestly be just fine with that, too.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Then again, the Brewers could just play the arbitration game and have Contreras the next 3 seasons before watching him leave in free agency as a 30 yr old catcher who some other team will pay huge dollars to watch him decline....I'd honestly be just fine with that, too.

Yeah, I'd have no issue at all going the Adames route with William, taking three years of (hopefully) top end production and then the pick when he leaves in FA.

Guessing they'd prefer to give Quero most of this year in the minors, before breaking him in as a backup in MLB next year. If he looks up to the task that would give them a little more wiggle room to maybe trade William in his final Arby year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Contreras strikes me as the type of person who wants a maximum payday in free agency. Maybe I'm wrong about that (and there's nothing wrong with betting on yourself), I just don't see an extension getting done with him.

And that's too bad. I'd happily give him the Raleigh contract plus a year if he would accept.

[wallus]

Would be more interested in this if we didn't have Quero. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Contreras strikes me as the type of person who wants a maximum payday in free agency. Maybe I'm wrong about that (and there's nothing wrong with betting on yourself), I just don't see an extension getting done with him.

And that's too bad. I'd happily give him the Raleigh contract plus a year if he would accept.

Agreed just like his brother. I'd also gladly do the contract Contreras got. His bat is good enough to shift to 1B or DH over time. Not like he's a glove first catcher.

[umphrey]

My logical side agrees but my gut says that Contreras is the new Molina, he has catcher genetics and he's going to be catching to the early/mid 30s. Anyway the Brewers just can't do it, they have to trade him sadly. They pay outfielders because it's the lowest risk. 

[bigred]

I just don't see the Brewers being interested in paying him that kind of $ with Quero waiting for his chance. Now, if they would happen to sign him long term, then obviously they should then immediately trade Quero and get something good in return, while his prospect status is still high. 

[nate82]

Paying a lot to a catcher is just something that should be avoided.  The main question to ask with Contreras is if you think his offense is worth paying for at 1B or DH when he can no longer be the main catcher.  Will he still provide a positive impact down the road when he shifts from catcher to DH or 1B?

 

[liveforoctober]

I really want to emphasize that I don't think the following scenario will happen nor do I want it to. I think this is going to be a great year of baseball and we will be buyers at the deadline. I really want that to be known.

However, there exists a scenario where Quero shines this year, the Brewers underperform/are injured and fall out of the race by the summer, and we turn in the craziest trade deadline of our lifetimes.

We have 3 vet proven starters with one year left on their contracts, we have a very friendly Freddy contract, we would have an albatross of a trade piece behind the plate .. plus a few wild cards in there.

In a break glass scenario, the Brewers could shed a good portion of their team salary - give the remaining starts to the young guys to let one or more of them prove their 2026 worth ... and in return have the best farm system in MLB by summer's end.

Don't expect it. Don't want it. But I can't say I haven't noticed how the roster has been built this year (specifically the staff) and haven't logged it as notable.

[wiguy94]

15 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I really want to emphasize that I don't think the following scenario will happen nor do I want it to. I think this is going to be a great year of baseball and we will be buyers at the deadline. I really want that to be known.

However, there exists a scenario where Quero shines this year, the Brewers underperform/are injured and fall out of the race by the summer, and we turn in the craziest trade deadline of our lifetimes.

We have 3 vet proven starters with one year left on their contracts, we have a very friendly Freddy contract, we would have an albatross of a trade piece behind the plate .. plus a few wild cards in there.

In a break glass scenario, the Brewers could shed a good portion of their team salary - give the remaining starts to the young guys to let one or more of them prove their 2026 worth ... and in return have the best farm system in MLB by summer's end.

Don't expect it. Don't want it. But I can't say I haven't noticed how the roster has been built this year (specifically the staff) and haven't logged it as notable.

It is consolation in case the Brewers do have a down year that we have so many potential trade assets. I would much rather continue to have good seasons and make the playoffs but the idea of a half season retool is kinda of tantalizing especially with the NL being so strong right now. Teams like the Dodgers and Phillies are at the height of their windows. A down year where the Brewers could kind of reset their window a bit wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I'm no Pat Murphy so I find the path to the playoffs and WS through the NL to be a bit daunting at this point. I think you could argue that the NL has the top 5 teams in the MLB in the Dodgers, Dbacks, Phillies, Mets, Braves.

[Mr Southpaw]

Yelich is untradeable and will have to be a primary DH into the 2028 season.  William will have to convert to 1B if he cannot catch until then.  My gut says he can stick at catching for another 6-7 years. Give him a contract that long and I am ok since Yelich will be gone by the last three years of the contract.

[MrTPlush]

We control Contreras till he is 29/30, it’s perfect…a dream.

We don’t actually have to give him a contract extension so he is an overpaid player someday.

[kestrel79]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

We control Contreras till he is 29/30, it’s perfect…a dream.

We don’t actually have to give him a contract extension so he is an overpaid player someday.

Wow. That seems perfect for a catcher. I'd just let it ride with the current contract, and then trade him with a year or two left and get a nice return and start over. Just how small market teams have to operate these days.