2025 Major Publication Prospect Rankings

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs Top 45 is published today.

Haven't had a chance to fully dig in yet, but here's the System Overview...

The Brewers system is among the best in baseball thanks to their scouting in Latin America, and their ability to synergize the domestic draft with their player development processes. In the span of a few years, the Brewers have signed two superstar-level international talents in Jackson Chourio and Jesús Made. Even if things somehow go awry for Made, his bat speed is his bat speed, and his power is his power. The ability to identify and/or develop indomitable characteristics in just a couple of players can change the course of an entire franchise, and the mere chance that Milwaukee has done this twice in short succession is remarkable, and very bad news for the rest of the NL Central.

The Brewers, for the most part, do not put all of their eggs into one basket on the international front. There isn’t a $3.5 million player occupying the majority of their pool space. Instead, they tend to have multiple $1 million to $2 million players, and those players tend to have the heuristic qualities (switch-hitting infielders, shorter-levered players) that analytically inclined teams like the Rays and Guardians target, with slightly more physicality or projection than is typical for that player demographic. Casting a wider net in that market allows the Brewers to diversify their risk and field two rosters worth of players in the DSL. Homegrown players are so important to smaller market teams, and this gives Milwaukee more chances to find some.

The rate and speed at which the Brewers improve the pitchers they draft is among the best in the industry. There are so many generic college relievers on this list who have not only improved, but who have a shot to be big league starters. For a while, the Brewers hammered junior colleges, but the transfer portal has made those less dense with talent. Now they’re unearthing guys who had 8.00 ERAs at big schools and making them good during their first offseason. It’s not like other teams don’t scout Mississippi State; the Brewers aren’t turning over rocks in the Dakotas to find players, though they do scout the Midwest very well. Guys like Tyson Hardin and K.C. Hunt had all the resources of an SEC program, but their time in Starkville still didn’t make them especially good.

And the Brewers give themselves lots of chances to apply their player dev concepts to many players. They work out their bonus pool math in such a way that they maximize how many high school players they’re drafting, signing 15 of them (!) combined the last two drafts. High school players have more athletic projection, with more time and opportunity to develop than college players, and when you’re adding six or eight of them to your system every year, you’re adding the opportunity for homegrown ceiling to an org that needs it to tilt with the likes of the Dodgers and Phillies. It’s conceptually basic but difficult to execute. It takes your scouting staff properly gauging signability in a weird slice of the amateur market, namely high schoolers whose talent puts them in the $250,000 to $600,000 bonus range, and who are willing to sign for that. It’s such a specific tier of talent to care about, and the org has to have non-data intel on each of these individuals in order to execute the strategy.

[snoogans8056]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs Top 45 is published today.

Haven't had a chance to fully dig in yet, but here's the System Overview...

The Brewers system is among the best in baseball thanks to their scouting in Latin America, and their ability to synergize the domestic draft with their player development processes. In the span of a few years, the Brewers have signed two superstar-level international talents in Jackson Chourio and Jesús Made. Even if things somehow go awry for Made, his bat speed is his bat speed, and his power is his power. The ability to identify and/or develop indomitable characteristics in just a couple of players can change the course of an entire franchise, and the mere chance that Milwaukee has done this twice in short succession is remarkable, and very bad news for the rest of the NL Central.

The Brewers, for the most part, do not put all of their eggs into one basket on the international front. There isn’t a $3.5 million player occupying the majority of their pool space. Instead, they tend to have multiple $1 million to $2 million players, and those players tend to have the heuristic qualities (switch-hitting infielders, shorter-levered players) that analytically inclined teams like the Rays and Guardians target, with slightly more physicality or projection than is typical for that player demographic. Casting a wider net in that market allows the Brewers to diversify their risk and field two rosters worth of players in the DSL. Homegrown players are so important to smaller market teams, and this gives Milwaukee more chances to find some.

The rate and speed at which the Brewers improve the pitchers they draft is among the best in the industry. There are so many generic college relievers on this list who have not only improved, but who have a shot to be big league starters. For a while, the Brewers hammered junior colleges, but the transfer portal has made those less dense with talent. Now they’re unearthing guys who had 8.00 ERAs at big schools and making them good during their first offseason. It’s not like other teams don’t scout Mississippi State; the Brewers aren’t turning over rocks in the Dakotas to find players, though they do scout the Midwest very well. Guys like Tyson Hardin and K.C. Hunt had all the resources of an SEC program, but their time in Starkville still didn’t make them especially good.

And the Brewers give themselves lots of chances to apply their player dev concepts to many players. They work out their bonus pool math in such a way that they maximize how many high school players they’re drafting, signing 15 of them (!) combined the last two drafts. High school players have more athletic projection, with more time and opportunity to develop than college players, and when you’re adding six or eight of them to your system every year, you’re adding the opportunity for homegrown ceiling to an org that needs it to tilt with the likes of the Dodgers and Phillies. It’s conceptually basic but difficult to execute. It takes your scouting staff properly gauging signability in a weird slice of the amateur market, namely high schoolers whose talent puts them in the $250,000 to $600,000 bonus range, and who are willing to sign for that. It’s such a specific tier of talent to care about, and the org has to have non-data intel on each of these individuals in order to execute the strategy.

That is everything I've wanted a major publication to say.

We all see it here, I just want others to acknowledge it as well.

[Jim Goulart]

This represents a new (2025) thread.

You'll find all the posts from the prior 18 months or so (primarily 2024) in the now-locked thread here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting they put Made above MIsiorowski. I don't know if I agree or disagree, but it's interesting. Misiorowski has really won me over this season.

[Brewer77]

Always like reading the fangraphs write ups as they are generally more conservative/critical. Helps to ground my expectations a bit :)

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Interesting they put Made above MIsiorowski. I don't know if I agree or disagree, but it's interesting. Misiorowski has really won me over this season.

I can see both sides of it.

Even though Made is a teenager in A ball he feels "safer" than Misio due to pitcher attrition rate in general and reliever risk with Jacob.

I've had Misio at #1 for awhile now just due to his legit ace potential, howsoever small. With another bonkers start today those odds keep sneaking upwards though.

[wiguy94]

Just now, Brewer77 said:

Always like reading the fangraphs write ups as they are generally more conservative/critical. Helps to ground my expectations a bit :)

I don't always agree with Longenhagen's evals but honestly the only thing I don't like is that because he's so thorough with his prospect reviews you really only get the 1 time a year update (outside of his Top 100ish) By the end of the season a lot of the stuff can begin to feel dated.

[jay87shot]

I think we have 3 top 25 prospects in Made, Misi, Pratt with Made and Misi having a chance top crack the top 10 for some evaluators. Quero could make his way into the discussion with a nice start to his year by mid-season. I wouldn bput Made, Misi, Pratt, Quero, Pena, and Henderson in the top 100 right now with maybe up to 10-12 others who could be in the top 100 by the end of the year.

Great right up by fan graphs. Thanks sveumrules...

[jay87shot]

21 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Interesting they put Made above MIsiorowski. I don't know if I agree or disagree, but it's interesting. Misiorowski has really won me over this season.

Agreed, with the control he has shown over the past 5/6 starts and the new and improved change up he has to jump up to one of the top 2-3 pitching prospects in the game. Made has the upside to be the number 1 prospect in the game by the end of the year, however he only has like 100  ab's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I can see both sides of it.

Even though Made is a teenager in A ball he feels "safer" than Misio due to pitcher attrition rate in general and reliever risk with Jacob.

I've had Misio at #1 for awhile now just due to his legit ace potential, howsoever small. With another bonkers start today those odds keep sneaking upwards though.

Going into the season, I had Mis first mostly out of default. Now I probably have him first because he's earning it from stiff competition in Made.

[Joseph Zarr]

Miz's evolution over the past month is nothing short of jaw-droppingly stunning. 
 

"Oh look he has a Plus change-up suddenly. No big deal."

"Oh, hey guys, that's a 70% zone rate early outing again. No big deal."

"Oh, wow, yeah...there he goes pumping 103 mph at pitch 78 for a swinging K with men on 2nd and 3rd!!!! Everything is completely normal. I'm FINE!"

I can not compute. Can't do it. What timeline are we in here?!?

[wiguy94]

I thought this was really notable. Longenhagen said Hayden Robinson is slated to be back in game action soon. I thought it was weird maybe even a mistake when Robinson was listed on the ACL Brewers 7-day IL and not on the 60-day or full-season IL. Maybe he's actually going to be pitching here soon?

[CheeseheadInQC]

Liked seeing Hardin so high on the list along with some of the other recent comments on him. When older later round picks do well at low or high A there is always that, “Is he legit or just more experienced?” question.

[umphrey]

I don't think I've ever disagreed with a fangraphs list so much. They leaned too far into future upside and away from probability to help the MLB team. Guys like Durbin, Patrick, Boeve, Black, Wilken too far below guys like Jorge Quintana and his 2030 ETA. Someone needs to remind them that first round picks are not done developing at age 23 most of the time, and this miss rate on 18 year olds is insanely high. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The writeup on Miz seems to have been done during spring training.  It says he lacks a changeup and that has been a very notable difference as of late.  I imagine his rating would have been higher based on recent events.  Really no reason why Made would be higher than Miz right now.  Understand the risk with Miz, but a SP with a ceiling of best starter in the game and is at AAA has to have more value than an 18 year old SS with superstar potential but is in low A.  Its a nice problem for the Brewers to have.  Two players of this caliber.

[mudbutt]

Keith Law put out an updated top 50.  Quero must be looking good in his recovery because he still has him at 15! Made is at 28 and Pratt at 38.  Pena made the just missed the top 50 list.  Not surprised by no sign of Miz as I think Law was pretty nervous about him staying a starter.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

3 hours ago, mudbutt said:

Keith Law put out an updated top 50.  Quero must be looking good in his recovery because he still has him at 15! Made is at 28 and Pratt at 38.  Pena made the just missed the top 50 list.  Not surprised by no sign of Miz as I think Law was pretty nervous about him staying a starter.

Keith law… that name just gives me, as the girls say now, “the ick”. Always one to go against the consensus and it rarely turns out for him. Contrarian takes that are often loud and wrong. He’s been consistently one of the most inaccurate evaluators in recent memory and there’s always such a negative undertone. That blurb directly contrasts with Josh Norris’ opinion on Made (someone that knows ball) Hate that I even gave it a click. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Keith law… that name just gives me, as the girls say now, “the ick”. Always one to go against the consensus and it rarely turns out for him. Contrarian takes that are often loud and wrong. He’s been consistently one of the most inaccurate evaluators in recent memory and there’s always such a negative undertone. That blurb directly contrasts with Josh Norris’ opinion on Made (someone that knows ball) Hate that I even gave it a click. 

Yeah Law keeping Quero 15 and Misiorowski off the list is just Law being Law. Once he makes up his mind on a prospect he rarely changes it.

In the chat he did someone asked about Misiorowski and he said this:

““He's not really throwing more strikes - ~60% of his pitches are out of the zone, with a lot of chases that he may not get in the majors facing hitters 2-3 times/game. I still think he's a reliever, and maybe an elite one.”

So he didn’t even bother to look at the numbers because that couldn’t be further from the truth on the zone rate.

[Playing Catch]

On 5/16/2025 at 3:58 PM, umphrey said:

I don't think I've ever disagreed with a fangraphs list so much. They leaned too far into future upside and away from probability to help the MLB team. Guys like Durbin, Patrick, Boeve, Black, Wilken too far below guys like Jorge Quintana and his 2030 ETA. Someone needs to remind them that first round picks are not done developing at age 23 most of the time, and this miss rate on 18 year olds is insanely high. 

Raising prospect floors, and developing young men and turning them into big league contributors is probably one of the most difficult things to evaluate, and also one of the most important aspects of a successful organization. The macro-scouting media don't have the resources to peer into the future for a guy like Jadher Areinamo, and frankly, doing deep dives on players like that don't serve their purpose as media outlets.

It doesn't require a lot of development chops to turn Jac Caglianone into what he will become. But turning organizational soldiers into Jadher Areinamo or Jeferson Quero, or at the big league level, turning has-been prospects, or never-have-been prospects into guys like Blake Perkins and Chad Patrick is where the Brewers system deserves its flowers. The Misiorowskis, Chourios, and Mades are simply icing on the cake.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

10 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah Law keeping Quero 15 and Misiorowski off the list is just Law being Law. Once he makes up his mind on a prospect he rarely changes it.

In the chat he did someone asked about Misiorowski and he said this:

““He's not really throwing more strikes - ~60% of his pitches are out of the zone, with a lot of chases that he may not get in the majors facing hitters 2-3 times/game. I still think he's a reliever, and maybe an elite one.”

So he didn’t even bother to look at the numbers because that couldn’t be further from the truth on the zone rate.

Exactly. He is one to always be locked in his takes and never usually wavers even with new information. Probably an ego thing, but to be the best evaluator possible you'd think you'd be far more fluid as new info and data comes in. Baseball is a sport where the point the player begins can be vastly different to where they end. Adjustments exist and can change a player's entire trajectory. Has happened all throughout MLB history. You would think he would know this. 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[snoogans8056]

3 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

 

It might get lost in this thread, but this is absolutely must listen for anyone that visits this forum.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I like to think of myself pretty informed on the player dev side of things, but this interview was phenomenal and I learned so much more. Brenton sounds like a huge reason for our success in the minors and I am excited to see his rocket like trajectory in the org. 

[Playing Catch]

Kiley McDaniel's update from 6-2-25...

June update: 2025 top 10 prospect rankings for all 30 MLB teams - ESPN

There's something satisfying about his comment that "a dozen or so other prospects could slot into that 10th spot."

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Just baseball posted their Top 100 prospect update.  6 Brewers in the top 100.  Made, Pena, Miz all within the top 20.

I had Pena at 10 (for the brewers) in our last Brewerfanatic prospect vote.  I'm going to have to adjust that.  I admit I am reluctant to give him his due.  Just thinking its too improbable that the Brewers could find three international prospects recently with superstar talent (Chourio, Made, Pena), but it looks like they did!

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/