General Post-Draft Discussion - 2025 edition

[Jake McKibbin]

One thought as to how the Brewers might choose to spend their cash, with a couple of factors (and the 11-20 picks are really a random guess)

 

- Andrew Fischer gets late first round money as opposed to mid-late first round, capped at 75% of slot value as he attended the MLB Draft Combine (similar to Braylon Payne and Blake Burke in 2024)

- Brady Ebel is similar, getting second round value at pick 32, but still above where most consensus boards had him ranked. Capped at 75% of value as he attended the MLB Draft combine and it seems a reasonable fee to pay.

- JD Thompson should be under slot, though I haven't gone as heavy here, in part in case Ebel/Fischer are slightly above the 75% mark, but there could  be more savings here. I'm also aware Frank Cairone could get more, and we'll get to that now

- Cairone is in a similar situation to Bryce Meccage in 2025, albeit without the big fastball and the changeup that showed lashes to blend the package together. He has shown improving stuff, great extension, and a real feel for spinning the ball, so honestly I could see him getting a bigger bonus than the $1.5m, especially as the Brewers can't afford to leave that pick unsigned or they will lose it from the 2026 draft.  Thomspon could sign for less, and pass more to Cairone but overall I'm probably slightly on the optimistic side in the aggregate from the first two rounds

- Jacob Morrison also attended the MLb Draft combine but shouldn't be expected to be a tough sign as a third year college arm and not ranked in the top 150 of several draft boards. He's above expectation and a college arm, so likely getting the 75% slot value here

- Sean Episcope is interesting, his injury may go a variety of ways so I've settled at slot value. He was flying early in the season, and could go back in 4th year with an intention to dominate and force his way up draft boards, or he could be happy to come into pr ball with an organization like the Brewers. I'd lean under slot, but he does have some consideration to returning and increasing his value based on performance. I've taken a prudent view here given my slight optimism in earlier rounds

- Daniel Dickinson is likely in and around slot value here, falling further than expected but that injury certainly hurt him down the stretch. I can;t see the Brewers going over slot for him, as a college 2B profile, but I also don't think they'll get him for much under slot either

- Josiah Ragsdale may be available under slot,a college outfielder without surpeme power production and there's a suspicion that defensively he'll end up more in left field as he doesn't field his position that well despite good speed. Fit the Brewers mold nicely, but not huge slot savings here despite not attending the combine

- Hayden Vucinovich is likely to be a little over slot, though not by a huge margin. I may be $100k or so off on this, as he has a lot of tools the Brewers will enjoy working with but also not a ton of track record which may dampen his leverage.

- Andrew Healy is a junior from college and again likely to be an under slot deal. He performed excellently in 2023, but has regressed in 2024 and 2025 to the point that he was in the transfer portal looking for opportunities elsewhere. On the back of an ERA over 7, this shouldn't be a difficult sign

- Braylon Owens is a college senior, already hindering his draft bonus. He's a solid arm with a five pitch mix, including the three fastball combination and has consistently gotten results, but the college senior element of this should allow the brewers to strike a deal on the low end of slot values.

As for the rounds 11-20, the Brewers don't traditionally go over the $900k mark, they didn;t last year anyhow, but it is a guessing game. Likely that picks 11-12 sign and after that its how do they spend their oney. 

My impression is that they want an athletic catcher and if they can't sign Brendan Brock, they'll pivot to Rylan Mills on a cheaper deal and spread out the remainder to perhaps add a little extra incentive to Dominic Cadiz, but I think they'll want to ensure they have Cooper, Lauridsen and Underwood in the mix in two weeks time

I'm likely horribly wrong, and I think that they may have to pass the $1m mark for one of either Brock or Cadiz who both appear to be high flying but time will tell!

 

 

 

[biedergb]

4 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Cairone is in a similar situation to Bryce Meccage in 2025, albeit without the big fastball and the changeup that showed lashes to blend the package together. He has shown improving stuff, great extension, and a real feel for spinning the ball, so honestly I could see him getting a bigger bonus than the $1.5m, especially as the Brewers can't afford to leave that pick unsigned or they will lose it from the 2026 draft.

I would think that by picking Cairone in that spot they had an idea of his bonus wishes and that they are in line with that pick, otherwise they may have selected someone else, knowing that can't fumble this pick. I have no information to reference, but just imagine that would be smart business, and thus an "out of left field" selection because they may have had a close to a pre-arranged deal as you get with a 2nd rounder. So probably right at slot money. Just a hunch.

Agree with your other options, and feel hopeful they can get at least 4 and up to 6 of the post-10th-round selections.

[Jake McKibbin]

Also if anyone wants to toy about with this for slot values and bonus pools, feel free to PM your email and I'll send you a copy of the sheet! 

Just let us know at the end what your final product looks like

[balsamlaker]

One thing to keep in mind when you compare draft rankings to where a player is drafted if roughly 1/4 of the top ranked players each year are not drafted or don't sign, so for example a player that has a draft ranking of 250 is realistically more like 185 out of signable players.  I am not sure there is a large amount of savings other than the top two picks and the senior sign in the tenth round.

[LouisEly]

With two surgeries and coming off of the second one, I see Episcope being just like Woodward in 2023 and signing for about $250K.  Very unlikely that he gets full slot coming off of a second surgery.

[snoogans8056]

Last year we spent almost $2mil of our savings on four late round signings. With the addition of the 150k that doesn't count, the total bonuses paid was around $2.5mil.

Assuming we do something similar, that is roughly $625k each to add four guys (end of 4th round slot value). I think that is absolutely best case scenario. Worst case is probably signing three for a little over $750k each (mid 3rd round money).

Coil probably signs for $150k and doesn't count.

All that being said.... I tried to save a little more than last year and used it all up trying to get Mills in at $250k with five bucks left to spare.

[jay87shot]

7 minutes ago, snoogans8056 said:

Last year we spent almost $2mil of our savings on four late round signings. With the addition of the 150k that doesn't count, the total bonuses paid was around $2.5mil.

Assuming we do something similar, that is roughly $625k each to add four guys (end of 4th round slot value). I think that is absolutely best case scenario. Worst case is probably signing three for a little over $750k each (mid 3rd round money).

Coil probably signs for $150k and doesn't count.

All that being said.... I tried to get Mills in at $250k with five bucks left to spare.

I don't think Carione will sign that much over. I feel like we wouldn't have gone HS there unless we had a guaranteed number that was lower. I kind of think like slot would be good there. On the flip side Vucinovich probably get over 500k as a HS school guy. In general though I agree with most of your accounting in principle. 

[snoogans8056]

5 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

On the flip side Vucinovich probably get over 500k as a HS school guy. In general though I agree with most of your accounting in principle. 

Tobias and Dorchies in the 9th/10th threw me for a loop last year. Ginger gets a number out of these guys.

I also went more towards slot with Ebel than most are. Feel like this was pretty conservative.

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, snoogans8056 said:

Tobias and Dorchies in the 9th/10th threw me for a loop last year. Ginger gets a number out of these guys.

I also went more towards slot with Ebel than most are. Feel like this was pretty conservative.

Yeah I think $300K is probably upper limit of what Vucinovich will get. I'd be flabbergasted if he ends up getting anywhere near $500K

[balsamlaker]

I think 2.1 through 9 are all going to be close to slot.  The three high schoolers in that range all went above projections which probably keep them closer to slot.  I would expect that Ebel would be closer to the 75% also.

[wiguy94]

Braves signed Tate Southisene to a $2,622,500 bonus. Feel like you'd hope Ebel would be below that so maybe he's down around a $2.5M bonus

[Playing Catch]

Mods feel free to delete/merge/rename this thread. I wasn't sure where to post general thoughts on the draft...

Firstly, BF's motley crew of baseball nerds and draftniks deserve a ton of credit. I've never seen such a positive first impression of a draft class in BF's history, and I think that it is in no small part to the efforts of that group, (along with the Brewers' FO's run of success, of course). Thank you so much for your insights, as they are not only informative, but I believe they help to mitigate the hottakeism that can take hold of the boards at different points in the season.

It seems clear that the Brewers once again, have decided on a draft strategy of saving a little draft budget on some of the big picks in order to be able to spread the wealth to over-slot guys drafted later on. This makes sense, based on their recent run of success.

In addition, the "Brewers' Type(s)," of prospects are continuing to be defined, making it -- perhaps, easier to spot prospects of those types in the draft pool. Fischer is certainly similar to the Wilken and Burke draft decisions, as is Cairone, if compared to Knoth, or Meccage, as a draft pick. And like a cold Ginger Ale on a hot summer day by the Jersey Shore, there are clearly other tasty identifiers sprinkled throughout the draft as well.

I HAVE to think that the Brewers reputation for developing and promoting players to the big leagues is a fundamental consideration for players, agents and families when thinking about signing an under-slot deal, otherwise the Brewers wouldn't be able to pull it off with regularity. I also wonder if drafting "unsignable" guys gives the Brewers leverage in negotiations as they have fallback options.

I'm excited to follow another draft class as they play their way to minor and major-league success!

[SF70]

The Brewers nailed their draft-class for the 3rd year in a row. Doesn’t matter who specifically signs from their 11-20, because enough will for them to have another top, among the best in baseball draft-class.

The 5 LHP’s drafted, fixes one of the systems 2 glaring weaknesses, the dearth of left-handed pitching. The other weakness, at least the way I see it, OF power bats, was not addressed in this draft, not with Ragsdale, who is a puzzling pick to me, but oh well, maybe next year they go OF heavy.

What’s got me super excited is the Fischer pick. Some, including many Brewers scouts thought him to be the best hitter in the draft-class, bar none. And with his plate-discipline, strength and lofted swing, a potential middle of the order bat in the BL lineup and imo, sooner than later. I think he flies to the big-leagues.

But again, for the 3rd year in a row, they will likely end up with N of 10 pitchers added, not a bad strategy when the team is as good as it gets with pitching development.

 

[titletownking]

9 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

One thought as to how the Brewers might choose to spend their cash, with a couple of factors (and the 11-20 picks are really a random guess)

 

- Andrew Fischer gets late first round money as opposed to mid-late first round, capped at 75% of slot value as he attended the MLB Draft Combine (similar to Braylon Payne and Blake Burke in 2024)

- Brady Ebel is similar, getting second round value at pick 32, but still above where most consensus boards had him ranked. Capped at 75% of value as he attended the MLB Draft combine and it seems a reasonable fee to pay.

- JD Thompson should be under slot, though I haven't gone as heavy here, in part in case Ebel/Fischer are slightly above the 75% mark, but there could  be more savings here. I'm also aware Frank Cairone could get more, and we'll get to that now

- Cairone is in a similar situation to Bryce Meccage in 2025, albeit without the big fastball and the changeup that showed lashes to blend the package together. He has shown improving stuff, great extension, and a real feel for spinning the ball, so honestly I could see him getting a bigger bonus than the $1.5m, especially as the Brewers can't afford to leave that pick unsigned or they will lose it from the 2026 draft.  Thomspon could sign for less, and pass more to Cairone but overall I'm probably slightly on the optimistic side in the aggregate from the first two rounds

- Jacob Morrison also attended the MLb Draft combine but shouldn't be expected to be a tough sign as a third year college arm and not ranked in the top 150 of several draft boards. He's above expectation and a college arm, so likely getting the 75% slot value here

- Sean Episcope is interesting, his injury may go a variety of ways so I've settled at slot value. He was flying early in the season, and could go back in 4th year with an intention to dominate and force his way up draft boards, or he could be happy to come into pr ball with an organization like the Brewers. I'd lean under slot, but he does have some consideration to returning and increasing his value based on performance. I've taken a prudent view here given my slight optimism in earlier rounds

- Daniel Dickinson is likely in and around slot value here, falling further than expected but that injury certainly hurt him down the stretch. I can;t see the Brewers going over slot for him, as a college 2B profile, but I also don't think they'll get him for much under slot either

- Josiah Ragsdale may be available under slot,a college outfielder without surpeme power production and there's a suspicion that defensively he'll end up more in left field as he doesn't field his position that well despite good speed. Fit the Brewers mold nicely, but not huge slot savings here despite not attending the combine

- Hayden Vucinovich is likely to be a little over slot, though not by a huge margin. I may be $100k or so off on this, as he has a lot of tools the Brewers will enjoy working with but also not a ton of track record which may dampen his leverage.

- Andrew Healy is a junior from college and again likely to be an under slot deal. He performed excellently in 2023, but has regressed in 2024 and 2025 to the point that he was in the transfer portal looking for opportunities elsewhere. On the back of an ERA over 7, this shouldn't be a difficult sign

- Braylon Owens is a college senior, already hindering his draft bonus. He's a solid arm with a five pitch mix, including the three fastball combination and has consistently gotten results, but the college senior element of this should allow the brewers to strike a deal on the low end of slot values.

As for the rounds 11-20, the Brewers don't traditionally go over the $900k mark, they didn;t last year anyhow, but it is a guessing game. Likely that picks 11-12 sign and after that its how do they spend their oney. 

My impression is that they want an athletic catcher and if they can't sign Brendan Brock, they'll pivot to Rylan Mills on a cheaper deal and spread out the remainder to perhaps add a little extra incentive to Dominic Cadiz, but I think they'll want to ensure they have Cooper, Lauridsen and Underwood in the mix in two weeks time

I'm likely horribly wrong, and I think that they may have to pass the $1m mark for one of either Brock or Cadiz who both appear to be high flying but time will tell!

 

 

 

A tremendous amount of time and thought put into this, very cool to read! I don’t think your far off but the most important number/cost saver is Fischer so I suppose a lot rides on that. 

[Jake McKibbin]

15 minutes ago, titletownking said:

A tremendous amount of time and thought put into this, very cool to read! I don’t think your far off but the most important number/cost saver is Fischer so I suppose a lot rides on that. 

Absolutely. Biggest savings are always gonna come in the top two picks

Glad you enjoyed it! My nerdiness pays off every now and then haha

[Jake McKibbin]

So a couple of things to be aware of:

- The Brewers typically release signing bonuses later than most. Typically, the last negotiations to be firmed up are rounds 11-20, for obvious reasons, and keeping it under wraps just how much you have to spend helps in leveraging for deals at that point. We'll hear players signed but might be a week+ until we see bonuses

- Players will often sign for $2,500 less than their full payment, because after signing, the team can give a $2,500 bonus that doesn't count towards the bonus pool. It's not a huge difference but it can save some funds as you progress, maybe up to $20,000 based on the Brewers likely over slot draftees

[Joseph Zarr]

This is so awesome:

What a beautiful tribute!

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting if the bonuses come in closer to 2023 or 2024. 2023 was surprisingly low, but last year was comparatively high.

[snoogans8056]

5 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

It will be interesting if the bonuses come in closer to 2023 or 2024. 2023 was surprisingly low, but last year was comparatively high.

I think last year they just spent too much time on Levonas.

All the 11-20 signings seemingly happened at the last possible second. That was the first time in a while we left money on the table.

Would love to hear some insider talk on how last year went.

[Jake McKibbin]

Cooper Underwood on going pro vs going to college:

Quote

“It’s a blessing, just taking it as a day-by-day kind of thing,” Underwood said.

“Whatever door God opens I’m going to run with that. I have no clue what’s going to happen,” Underwood said. “All it takes is one team to really like you to fall in place. Whatever God lays out. Hopefully it’s one clear decision, either I’m going to go play pro ball or I’m going to go play college baseball for the next three years and get picked really high in three years.”

Also a little clip of Underwood from the MLB Draft combine (interesting the Brewers took two High school arms that boosted their stock significantly at the combine in Lauridsen and Underwood)

https://www.mlb.com/video/cooper-underwood-strikes-out-two?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

That curveball looks nasty for his age

 

[Jim Goulart]

Via the Milwaukee Tailgate "Bonus" Podcast - "This is a bonus, teaser episode of the Minor League Extra available to all listeners. In it, Ryan Topp and Spencer Michaelis discuss the first five picks the Brewers made in this year's MLB draft.

If you would like to hear about picks from the 4th through 20th round, you'll need to subscribe here at the Ball and Glove level and above. If you do, you'll not only get the Minor League Extra, but also Paul's weekly Packer previews during football season."

[nate82]

I didn't see this posted but Jack Bauer decided to go to Mississippi State and forgo going to the MLB and that is why he was not drafted.

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/mississippi-state/2025/07/14/jack-bauer-mlb-draft-mississippi-state-baseball/85199243007/

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

You mean like you speculated about what Episcope will sign for on page 1 of this thread?

I'm 100% against the Brewers signing Episcope because, having typed his name approximately 50 times during the draft and never getting it right even once, I resent the hell out of him.*

*I'm sure he's a perfectly fine human being, but I still resent him

[SDBrew fan]

Today Jim Duquette and Mike Ferron interviewed Dino Ebel the father of Brady.  It sure sounded like Brady has already agreed to sign.  Dino said the Brewers are going to keep Brady at shortstop to start.  Every comment about playing in Milwaukee's system sounded like a forgone conclusion.  Dino also said Brady is walking around the house in a Brewers hat.  Good interview. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, SDBrew fan said:

Today Jim Duquette and Mike Ferron interviewed Dino Ebel the father of Brady.  It sure sounded like Brady has already agreed to sign.  Dino said the Brewers are going to keep Brady at shortstop to start.  Every comment about playing in Milwaukee's system sounded like a forgone conclusion.  Dino also said Brady is walking around the house in a Brewers hat.  Good interview. 

Is this on youtube or somewhere? Would love to listen.