Are the Brewers as good as their MLB-leading record?

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, Brian said:

You were going good until I read the statement above.  .280 is an all star # in the MLB. But I would be all for giving him another shot and split time with Andrew Vaughn. 

.... you realize that wasn't a prediction, right?

I'd also place the BA as the 3rd most important of that slash line. If he has a .240 BA and he gets On-base, I don't care. I don't actually think he's going to be up all that long and I don't think BA is as important of a number as I think you're suggesting or Frelick and Turang would have been in the ASG as guys hitting around .280 and being elite defenders. 

[owbc]

As others have said, I tend to subscribe to the belief that you are what your record is. So the answer to OP's question is yes. 

Have they gotten lucky? Not really. Their pythagorean record is 58-41, only one game off of their actual record. 

Do they have as much "on paper" talent as their competition? I would say no. Certainly not compared with LA. But injuries and underperformance is what it is. 

Do they have the talent to be the #1 team in MLB after 162? I certainly think so and it seems like many here do as well. I agree that you have to add talent at the deadline to keep up with the competition. I don't think they will trade away major league talent even though they are in a rare position of having surplus. 

If they are going to add and not get into bidding wars, I would add vets who have been on multiple deep postseason runs. That's one area we are lacking relative to some of the teams that we may be going up against in October.  

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, owbc said:

As others have said, I tend to subscribe to the belief that you are what your record is. So the answer to OP's question is yes. 

Have they gotten lucky? Not really. Their pythagorean record is 58-41, only one game off of their actual record. 

Do they have as much "on paper" talent as their competition? I would say no. Certainly not compared with LA. But injuries and underperformance is what it is. 

Do they have the talent to be the #1 team in MLB after 162? I certainly think so and it seems like many here do as well. I agree that you have to add talent at the deadline to keep up with the competition. I don't think they will trade away major league talent even though they are in a rare position of having surplus. 

If they are going to add and not get into bidding wars, I would add vets who have been on multiple deep postseason runs. That's one area we are lacking relative to some of the teams that we may be going up against in October.  

I think a better question is... can this Brewers team win in the post-season.

It's tougher to put multiple hits together. The 4 runs we scored off Skenes is...exceptionally rare. 

So do we have enough punch to beat the top pitching? I think if you get Chourio, Yely, Contreras, Hoskins OR Vaughn stays hot and then just have Frelick, Turang, Durbin, even Ortiz who is playing well, just keep doing their thing, tough PAs, grinding out ABs, I think so. If you add one of the top 10-15 hitters in the game the last year... that REALLY fills out your lineup. 

[MJLiverock]

I'm skeptical  until they can win a play off series or 2, too many times we've seen the team fail in the playoffs.  I am skeptical  of the average offense being able to get it done vs. playoff teams when the rotations are shortened and pressure is on.  Looking at the Brewers compared to other playoff teams they have a similar number of guys with OPS or Rc+ above average but the Brewers guys are barely above average while others have 5+ guys with better offense than the Brewers best guys and the black hole of offense at SS isn't enough, even with good D Ortiz is still at replacement level for WAR because his O is so bad.

 

[homer]

14 minutes ago, MJLiverock said:

I'm skeptical  until they can win a play off series or 2, too many times we've seen the team fail in the playoffs.  I am skeptical  of the average offense being able to get it done vs. playoff teams when the rotations are shortened and pressure is on.  Looking at the Brewers compared to other playoff teams they have a similar number of guys with OPS or Rc+ above average but the Brewers guys are barely above average while others have 5+ guys with better offense than the Brewers best guys and the black hole of offense at SS isn't enough, even with good D Ortiz is still at replacement level for WAR because his O is so bad.

 

Ortiz's O has been fine since the beginning of June.

[owbc]

27 minutes ago, MJLiverock said:

I'm skeptical  until they can win a play off series or 2, too many times we've seen the team fail in the playoffs.  I am skeptical  of the average offense being able to get it done vs. playoff teams when the rotations are shortened and pressure is on.  Looking at the Brewers compared to other playoff teams they have a similar number of guys with OPS or Rc+ above average but the Brewers guys are barely above average while others have 5+ guys with better offense than the Brewers best guys and the black hole of offense at SS isn't enough, even with good D Ortiz is still at replacement level for WAR because his O is so bad.

 

It’s worth remembering that a top-2 record in the NL is kinda equivalent to “winning” a playoff series. Especially given the way the wild card round has cursed us. 

[cragi]

With recent offensive improvements and stellar defense coming from Ortiz, I'm starting to come around that he might be enough. Should be able to upgrade Durbin. 

But ether way, they are banking on a number of "maybe good enough" for the playoffs, and that's before we get to the very weak bench. Brewers could upgrade 3B or SS and minimally end up with a platoon, rotation or just great bench depth. 

I'm of the belief they have more than enough farm pieces to flip that won't significantly impact the future

[Profbratsch]

On 7/20/2025 at 9:00 PM, adambr2 said:

It’s been really exciting. They’ll obviously cool off at some point, but they’re definitely very good.

Based on the remaining schedule, the Cubs probably have the edge for the division, but it could definitely go either way. 

My dreams are of a World Series. My bets, if I were to make any, is that they win a Wild Card and fall in the first round.

It’s not that I don’t think they’re capable of more. I’ve just gone through the heartbreak too many times to get my hopes up until they can prove that they can get over the hump and at least win a playoff series or two.

Would you feel any differently once the winning streak hits 35? 😉

[Brian]

Simple question, who is our backup SS?  Say Ortiz pulls a hammy or something, then what, were screwed. 

Monasterio?  Move Durbin over?  Then we have a hole at 3rd.  Why is everyone so against picking up a middle of the road SS besides 85% of all MLB shortstops are hitting better than Joeys ,215 avg. 

[Playing Catch]

15 minutes ago, Brian said:

Simple question, who is our backup SS?  Say Ortiz pulls a hammy or something, then what, were screwed. 

Monasterio?  Move Durbin over?  Then we have a hole at 3rd.  Why is everyone so against picking up a middle of the road SS besides 85% of all MLB shortstops are hitting better than Joeys ,215 avg. 

Good point.

My guess is they'd move Turang over and have Durbin play 2nd, and Suarez at 3rd.

Probably Monasterio, in reality, yes. But if reports are to be believed, Pratt would have the best glove available.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Profbratsch said:

Would you feel any differently once the winning streak hits 35? 😉

Well, I would definitely feel optimistic that we’d advance past the Wild Card round! Since we’d be in the drivers’ seat for the #1 seat by probably 10-15 games in mid August by that point. 

[Playing Catch]

This is a must-watch for anyone curious about what national baseball people think of the Brewers and their front office... The video starts when they start talking about the Brewers.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

My guess is they'd move Turang over and have Durbin play 2nd, and Suarez at 3rd.

I know that Turang had "dead arm" in spring training.  Based on his performance, I don't think it is a thing anymore. (????)

[Brian]

16 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I know that Turang had "dead arm" in spring training.  Based on his performance, I don't think it is a thing anymore. (????)

You mean to fill in at SS? According to Pat Murphy, Turang throwing a longer distance from shortstop is what’s led to the dead arm shoulder injury. 

[Roderick]

14 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

... can this Brewers team win in the post-season.

It's tougher to put multiple hits together.  

OR.....  is this the year to be a team that can create some runs, and doesn't rely on the 3run HR.

With the baseball having more drag, hence less HRs, it might play right into the Brewers hands to not be reliant on HRs for the offense this postseason.

Conspiracy - does baseball brings out a stash of prior year balls for the postseason, so they get more runs?

[Samurai Bucky]

39 minutes ago, Brian said:

You mean to fill in at SS? According to Pat Murphy, Turang throwing a longer distance from shortstop is what’s led to the dead arm shoulder injury. 

Yes... to fill in at Shortstop.  There have been suggestions to slide him over to Short if Ortiz gets hurt.  I remember the Dead Arm issue being one of the reasons why he didn't start out at short.

So, moving Turang to short isn't really an option, right?

[Brian]

Just now, Samurai Bucky said:

Yes... to fill in at Shortstop.  There have been suggestions to slide him over to Short if Ortiz gets hurt.  I remember the Dead Arm issue being one of the reasons why he didn't start out at short.

So, moving Turang to short isn't really an option, right?

In a pinch I'm sure you could but I wouldn't do it for any long term thing. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

9 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Yes... to fill in at Shortstop.  There have been suggestions to slide him over to Short if Ortiz gets hurt.  I remember the Dead Arm issue being one of the reasons why he didn't start out at short.

So, moving Turang to short isn't really an option, right?

He was identified as the best defender in the NL as a 2B....even though he could play short, I'd leave Turang at 2B and keep only 1 position in flux.

[Turning2]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

This is a must-watch for anyone curious about what national baseball people think of the Brewers and their front office... The video starts when they start talking about the Brewers.

 

It's delicious when the Brewers play well enough to force MLB and its cottage industry to talk about its  version of a "fly over land" team. Jomboy media overall gives them a little lip service, but the other show with Plouffe and Rose could do better. 

It's also should be noted that they are saying things indirectly which echoes my opinion about what matters in evaluating players ... and more importantly... what is overrated. That is a subject for a thread all itself, but it ruffles too many feathers.

[Thurston Fluff]

20 hours ago, owbc said:

As others have said, I tend to subscribe to the belief that you are what your record is. So the answer to OP's question is yes. 

Have they gotten lucky? Not really. Their pythagorean record is 58-41, only one game off of their actual record. 

Do they have as much "on paper" talent as their competition? I would say no. Certainly not compared with LA. But injuries and underperformance is what it is. 

Do they have the talent to be the #1 team in MLB after 162? I certainly think so and it seems like many here do as well. I agree that you have to add talent at the deadline to keep up with the competition. I don't think they will trade away major league talent even though they are in a rare position of having surplus. 

If they are going to add and not get into bidding wars, I would add vets who have been on multiple deep postseason runs. That's one area we are lacking relative to some of the teams that we may be going up against in October.  

I don't want to derail the tread too much but I always wondered if playoff experience is that important. The deepest run the current Brewers have had was 2018. 

[owbc]

1 minute ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't want to derail the tread too much but I always wondered if playoff experience is that important. The deepest run the current Brewers have had was 2018. 

I agree that it's a fair question to ask because it's hard to show anything definitive statistically, but that 2018 team was full of vets. I think the shoddy defense in the 2024 wild card round can be at least partially attributed to playoff inexperience. The 2025 Brewers are one of the youngest teams in MLB. 

I've just seen it too many times where some of these experienced teams coast through the regular season and then suddenly find another gear in the postseason. I think of the Castellanos quote in particular: “A lot of time I have trouble keeping focused everyday 9 innings in the regular season, but with the postseason the baseball’s incredible you don’t have a choice but to be locked in and I think that’s just kinda why I’m playing better.”

 

[Turning2]

24 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't want to derail the tread too much but I always wondered if playoff experience is that important. The deepest run the current Brewers have had was 2018. 

It depends on the mental makeup of the player. No metric can measure that. Certainly, playoff experience can be helpful or overrated depending on the player. Overall, I think younger players are less intimidated by the big stage than they used to be. I also think this bears out across society. Our culture has changed for better or worse. People used to have stage fright. People used to have a personal filter, an inhibition. Now, the most tone deaf, untalented hacks have no qualms about embarrassing themselves in front of 50 strangers singing karoake very badly and regarding their own performance as pretty good. In a narcissistic environment where everybody can have a social media platform to assuage their egos, younger people aren't afraid of the spotlight. It does not surprise me in the least when wet behind the ears ball players hit the big leagues in stride with some immediate success. Others still melt from the pressure though. It's a case by case situation in my view. 

[homer]

I think they've simply had bad luck in the playoffs the last few years.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

You mean to fill in at SS? According to Pat Murphy, Turang throwing a longer distance from shortstop is what’s led to the dead arm shoulder injury. 

Yeah, he got dead arm because he was taking a lot of reps at SS, reps he wasn't used to making and he was making a lot more in a shorter period of time. Guys get dead arm all the time. They rest it and they're fine. 

This doesn't mean Turang can't slide over to SS. 

5 hours ago, homer said:

Ortiz's O has been fine since the beginning of June.

And his defense has been outstanding. 

We currently have two hitters who are hitting below average. Below a 100 OPS+. Ortiz and Contreras and he's a good game away. 

 

I'd love to add Suarez, but his performance of late has only increased his market value and now I think you're talking about one of the Brewers top 100 prospects+ a couple others. Maybe a top 100+a SPer. Is that worth a 2 months rental?

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

It depends on the mental makeup of the player. No metric can measure that. Certainly, playoff experience can be helpful or overrated depending on the player. Overall, I think younger players are less intimidated by the big stage than they used to be. I also think this bears out across society. Our culture has changed for better or worse. People used to have stage fright. People used to have a personal filter, an inhibition. Now, the most tone deaf, untalented hacks have no qualms about embarrassing themselves in front of 50 strangers singing karoake very badly and regarding their own performance as pretty good. In a narcissistic environment where everybody can have a social media platform to assuage their egos, younger people aren't afraid of the spotlight. It does not surprise me in the least when wet behind the ears ball players hit the big leagues in stride with some immediate success. Others still melt from the pressure though. It's a case by case situation in my view. 

I agree. Which leads me to believe getting someone because they have playoff experience a fool's errand. Trading for a particular person because of it when you don't know if A-that person's experience matters and B- the person you replaced because he didn't have the experience could be equally capable as he would be with the added experience.

I guess my question is more about why trading for someone because of their playoff experience is a thing more than some who may be better because they have experienced it already.