Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Three Thread - 10/8/2025 @ 4:08PM

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

In other words Collins would be my last choice. 

I'm not at all disagreeing with you ... but if I could add a touch on context and maybe optimism if he starts tonight?

His BABIP is Sept/Oct was by far his lowest in any month this year (.310A/.302M/.359J/.411J/.310A/.229S)

His OBP is Sept was actually right on par with his monthly avg otherwise (.333A/.319M/.411J/.411J/.359A/.345S) 

.. his k/bb was actually a tick better in Sept than the other months ... and this is with about 60% of the at bats he normally would have gotten since Perkins came back.

All of this to say ... seems like he had some bad luck on hits not falling for him and the dullness his numbers present for the last how many weeks maybe are not as bad as they seem?

[Frisbee Slider]

Taillon has been more effective against LHH compared to RHH, this season. For his career, left-handed, batters, understandably are more effective. New changeup, I suppose.🤷‍♂️

Can’t count out the possibility that Jake Bauers gets an opportunity in left field, too. 🙂

[shanedog19]

12 minutes ago, Devinep said:

With Priester being a groundball pitcher, and Lockridge as an extra sub possibly for Yelich late, I would DH Churio if he does play at all.  But playing Collins isn’t an awful idea either 

Why wouldn't Chourio play?

[RobertCrawley]

1 minute ago, shanedog19 said:

Why wouldn't Chourio play?

His hammy flared up again.

[folly412]

[owbc]

3 minutes ago, folly412 said:

Ha, not surprising. Can’t say they aren’t putting all their chips on the table to wrap this up in 3. 

[long ball]

I find it very interesting to see lockridge starting in CF. 
 

I know Perkins is better against lefties, but it’s just interesting to see them trust Lockridge enough to start him in the playoffs. I have liked what I’ve seen from him as far as being able to put together a competitive at bat. I’m less impressed with his defense in CF. Might see some shuffling as we get into their bullpen. 

[RobertCrawley]

1 minute ago, long ball said:

I find it very interesting to see lockridge starting in CF. 
 

I know Perkins is better against lefties, but it’s just interesting to see them trust Lockridge enough to start him in the playoffs. I have liked what I’ve seen from him as far as being able to put together a competitive at bat. I’m less impressed with his defense in CF. Might see some shuffling as we get into their bullpen. 

Let's hope he brings more to the plate than Perk. Maybe Perk comes in late for defense if it's close.

[liveforoctober]

I no longer doubt anything the Brewers do ... but rearranging the lineup and Lockridge in CF both raised my eyebrows.

Excited to score 10 again and be proven wrong. Let's go sweep them up!

[Yaz19]

3 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Wind blowing in today and out tomorrow is a fascinating one, ideally the Brewers may have preferred things the other way around with Priester today and Taillon's 13th percentile ground ball rate on show, but we'll see what happens.

 

A small detail on what could be a defining day! Nerves tingling yet for anyone?

Currently, NE winds 14 mph.  How is the stadium situated in relation to Lake Michigan?   Is home plate on the South end of the stadium?    Also, the forecast tomorrow is for Southeast winds but much lighter.

[Frisbee Slider]

Taillon allowed .610 OPS against LHH this season and .773 OPS against RHH. Both over 240+ AB - reverse splits

[OK4BrewCrew]

Lineup is out. Lockridge is in centerfield over Perkins. Assuming because Taillon has never faced Lockridge yet (as far as I can see) and Perkins is batting .143 against Taillon.

I'm optimistic. I like Lockridge and I think he brings a lot to the table. Get him on first base and put a ton of pressure on a right handed pitcher. 

Thoughts?

[Frisbee Slider]

Vaughn can greet any left-handed reliever today 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, Yaz19 said:

Currently, NE winds 14 mph.  How is the stadium situated in relation to Lake Michigan?   Is home plate on the South end of the stadium?    Also, the forecast tomorrow is for Southeast winds but much lighter.

NE wind off the lake is blowing straight in from center.  Wrigley will play big today - although line shots to left and right aren't going to get knocked down as much if they don't get up above the stands.

Liking this lineup as it prioritizes defense/speed and isn't too right/lefty weighted - CC is going to go bullpen crazy this game, and having a mix of lefties and righties to start with gives the Brewers balance all game long.

[shanedog19]

the Brewers need more steal attempts. Have we had one steal attempt in the first two games? Lockridge should be an automatic steal if he gets to first base.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Exactly, that's an interesting part about 5 game series.  The 'stress' flips so easily game to game.   Lose this one, all of a sudden next game pressure is all on you to 'not blow a 2-0 lead'.  Then of course if you lose that its all on you in game 5

Ground ball pitcher, what about just Yelich in LF and Chourio DH?  Yeli is weak on D but they have put him out there this year and he's gonna catch what he gets to. And if JC is on "don't sprint" type guidelines is he all that much better than Yeli at D?      Sure would be nice to get the win here and just have 4 days off for Chourio.

I recall talking to a co-worker in '82. The team was coming back to Milwaukee after falling behind 0-2 to the Angels in the ALCS & she was pretty despondent. I mentioned that if you just win game 3, all of a sudden you're nine innings from tying the series up & of course that's what happened. So yeah, a great spot to be in but momentum can be a funny thing.

I'm surprised no one until now has mentioned the Yelich LF/Chourio DH possibility. I think Yelich has been adequate when out there while Collins has struggled a bit w/the glove recently. But my gut says they're looking at Chourio as an all-or-nothing decision--play both ways or not at all.

[adambr2]

Not sure Sunday lineups are supposed to be a thing in October.

Seriously though, not necessarily criticizing the lineup, because Murphy has been tough to question when it comes to results, but I don’t know how Isaac Collins went from leading ROTY candidate to almost completely in the doghouse. It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty. It seems completely hunch based. Anyone have any analytical explanation for what it might be?

[rluzinski]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

This "not stressful" game will get stressful fast. 2-0 is really nothing. Teams come back from that in 7 gamers all the time. 2-1 playing a game in Wrigley is not a far leap to a Game 5, which I absolutely want no part of. Just TCB tonight and put them down.

And they would come back even more often if it was a 9 game series. The limited length of this series is WHY coming back 2-0 would be difficult for the Cubs.  It is certainly still doable, however.  They basically need to flip heads three times in a row: 50% x 50% X 50% = 12.5% (pretty close to the odds that Fangraphs gives them). 

If the Cubs win tonight, their odds roughly double, to around 25%.  I would love nothing more for the Brewers to finish this up today, but I also won't be freaking out if they lose.  Of course, everyone is welcome to freak out at whatever percentages they want to!

[liveforoctober]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Not sure Sunday lineups are supposed to be a thing in October.

Seriously though, not necessarily criticizing the lineup, because Murphy has been tough to question when it comes to results, but I don’t know how Isaac Collins went from leading ROTY candidate to almost completely in the doghouse. It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty. It seems completely hunch based. Anyone have any analytical explanation for what it might be?

My immediate reaction to offer an answer is that with the wind blowing in Murphy thinks this will be a 2-1 game and we will need to steal a run at some point to pull it out... so we are prioritizing speed and defense.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, rluzinski said:

And they would come back even more often if it was a 9 game series. The limited length of this series is WHY coming back 2-0 would be difficult for the Cubs. 

Gee thanks. I think we know this. 2-0 isn't the near-lock that 3-0 in a 7-gamer is, is kind of the point. Teams lose 3 baseball games in a row all the time during the season. You don't even have to go back 10 years to see a team blowing a 2-0 lead in a 5-game series. It's not like it happens all the time, but it's really not that remarkable. 

Plus, any series that goes 3 games without a sweep is 2-1. TLDR is, this thing ain't over.

My predictions, however,

Brewers 3-0 over Cubs

Brewers 4-2 over Dodgers

Brewers 4-3 over Blue Jays

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Collins posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR over his last 120 PA to close the season, that’s a couple cliffs down from the 141 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR he posted over his first 321 PA of the year.

[Frisbee Slider]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty.

Taillon is quite a bit worse against RHH this season. 

[rluzinski]

20 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Taillon allowed .610 OPS against LHH this season and .773 OPS against RHH. Both over 240+ AB - reverse splits

Statistically speaking, a small sample size like that can not begin to prove a reverse split.  His career splits show us exactly what we would expect:

vs RHB: 0.685 OPS (2618 PA)

vs. LHB: 0.742 OPS (2510 PA)

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Not sure Sunday lineups are supposed to be a thing in October.

Seriously though, not necessarily criticizing the lineup, because Murphy has been tough to question when it comes to results, but I don’t know how Isaac Collins went from leading ROTY candidate to almost completely in the doghouse. It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty. It seems completely hunch based. Anyone have any analytical explanation for what it might be?

I think any lineup with Chourio in it at this point disqualifies it as a "sunday lineup".  Lockridge starting today likely has to do with a mix of defense and Perkins' struggles against the Cub starter - once Taillon is out of this game, having bench bat options of Perkins and Collins (both switch hitters) along with Vaughn to plug in against relievers at certain spots of the game puts the Brewers in a better position than if Lockridge was one of those pinch hitters.

Maybe it's also a hunch on Murphy's end, too.  But as others have posted, Taillon has been more effective against LH hitters - which unless we'd want both Perkins and Collins to reverse switch hit, they would be hitting lefthanded.

I'd be very surprised to see Lockridge finish this game or even stay in it beyond the first time his spot in the order is up against a pitcher other than Taillon....unless he's got a couple hits, of course!

[Jim French Stepstool]

18 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Not sure Sunday lineups are supposed to be a thing in October.

Seriously though, not necessarily criticizing the lineup, because Murphy has been tough to question when it comes to results, but I don’t know how Isaac Collins went from leading ROTY candidate to almost completely in the doghouse. It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty. It seems completely hunch based. Anyone have any analytical explanation for what it might be?

We know how they value run prevention, and I think they're SO much better defensively with Perkins in CF & Frelick in RF. With Yelich & Chourio both available that kinda aces out Collins. Collins had the horrible defensive game late in the season also, which still might be sticking in Murphys' craw. Just a guess, but had Chourio never landed on the IL Collins' PT might've shrunk at that time.

As to Lockridge over Perkins today, I have no idea. But I do like the feel of two switch hitters on the bench, as well as Vaughn. And if it's a ground-ball day, Bauers is a nice call at 1B even though Vaughn has been solid.