Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Five Thread - 10/11/2025 @ 7:08PM - For those Assuming a WIN!

[adambr2]

42 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I fully expect a win tomorrow.

 

Home field matters and Iminaga stinks.

They’ve got a pretty rested pen from Boyd’s start. It is going to be all hands on deck for them just like it will be for us. 

I don’t know if Shota will start or not, but they’re not just going to hang him out to dry for 3-4 innings if things aren’t going well. It’ll be an extremely short hook.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

They’ve got a pretty rested pen from Boyd’s start. It is going to be all hands on deck for them just like it will be for us. 

I don’t know if Shota will start or not, but they’re not just going to hang him out to dry for 3-4 innings if things aren’t going well. It’ll be an extremely short hook.

All of the rational analysis doesn't seem to cancel out the fact that Craig Counsell getting doused in Gatorade at AmFam as an opponent just seems like a classic entry in the Encyclopedia of Wisconsin Sports Pain. It just feels like that has already been written.

[StearnsFTW]

15 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Tix sold. Thanks all

You vetted this guy right?

[adambr2]

9 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

All of the rational analysis doesn't seem to cancel out the fact that Craig Counsell getting doused in Gatorade at AmFam as an opponent just seems like a classic entry in the Encyclopedia of Wisconsin Sports Pain. It just feels like that has already been written.

Unfortunately, you do reach a point where logic and probability take a back seat to historical precedent.

There was no rationally based reason on October 3rd, 2024, to think that the Brewers 2-0 lead in the 9th inning of an elimination game at home against the Mets was in any danger of slipping away.

The most sensible, well-thought out explanations of why we should win an elimination game don’t really mean anything to me anymore until it actually happens.

[owbc]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

All of the rational analysis doesn't seem to cancel out the fact that Craig Counsell getting doused in Gatorade at AmFam as an opponent just seems like a classic entry in the Encyclopedia of Wisconsin Sports Pain. It just feels like that has already been written.

It's what we all feared as soon as soon as the playoff bracket was set. And then when the series was set. And now even more so that we're starting it in the face. 

All I can say is that I remember going to Cubs/Brewers games in the mid-2000s when they stomped all over us with the crowd at Miller Park being 90%+ Cubs fans. At that time the thought of getting a game like this would have been beyond the wildest dreams of any of us. It's what we live for as sports fans, to have the opportunity right in front of us to win a single game that could very likely go down as the greatest triumph in franchise history. With the fact that the series nearly slipped away making it all the sweeter. There could be a moment in this game that we'll be talking about for the rest of our lives. 

The tradeoff is that to fully experience the triumph we have to open ourselves up to the vulnerability of losing the game and that vision that we all have of CC with his giant smirk having erased every embarrassing moment that we have dealt him since he signed that contract. 

So let's play the game. 

[Underachiever]

11 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

You vetted this guy right?

I branded him with a Barrelman logo on his right bicep. 

[AKCheesehead]

I get the notion some have expressed of starting Uribe, but personally I think it's a really bad idea. 

1) You want Uribe to close this down, possibly 2 innings at the end. 

2) I don't trust Megill to close right now.  He hasn't looked the same.  The curve doesn't snap or locate and the FB isn't as fast.  Maybe he improves if we advance and he has more time behind the flexor strain.

3) It shows the cubs they are in our heads about how they've been insane in the first inning this series.  Gives them confidence.

4) Uribe's not used to starting, it could completely blow up in our face.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I’d probably have Quintana open and go 2-3 innings max. I don’t know. Quintana for 2, Mears for 1, Koenig for 1, Megill for 1, Ashby+Patrick for 3 and then Uribe for 1 gets you 9. Maybe Miz in there somewhere depending on game flow and score but I’d really rather not have to.

 

Not sure when we see him, but I think Miz pitches at some point & should go for as long as he can be effective.

I'd have a LH open as well. And I'd like it to be Quintana so Ashby can be available for the mid-portion. And I'd agree that Patrick is almost certain to work.

Not sure about Uribe for only one inning. If ever there was a game to ride him hard this is it, and he's extremely well-rested.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

I get the notion some have expressed of starting Uribe, but personally I think it's a really bad idea. 

1) You want Uribe to close this down, possibly 2 innings at the end. 

He won't close a game we're losing. Going down early again is a great way to ensure that happens.

5 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

2) I don't trust Megill to close right now.  He hasn't looked the same.  The curve doesn't snap or locate and the FB isn't as fast.  Maybe he improves if we advance and he has more time behind the flexor strain.

Fair, but toss out "closer" for this game. Just throw the guy who's in the game assuming we're in a position to close. We don't have to have a special guy come in for the sake of "closing."

5 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

3) It shows the cubs they are in our heads about how they've been insane in the first inning this series.  Gives them confidence.

They should be in our head because frankly you would have to try to give up 4 straight first inning homers. We need to put a 0 on the board regardless of how it makes them feel.

5 minutes ago, AKCheesehead said:

4) Uribe's not used to starting, it could completely blow up in our face.  

Not wrong, but every SP has blown up in our face.

[MDCrew]

My son was calling for Uribe to start last night. When Happ hit the HR he said “see told ya.” He made it till around the 5th and went to bed.

He is calling for Uribe to start again in game 5  with Priester to follow. Just need 27 outs doesn’t matter when. His prediction is Brewers win 6-5 with Bauers having a huge hit. He is pretty optimistic as long as we don’t pitch to Busch. “Dad he literally has a HR every game so far, it’s like touching the grill and wondering why my hand hurts”

 

[adambr2]

Abner is as good of an idea as any to start the game to me, with the understanding that it’ll probably backfire and we’ll be down 3 with Uribe already burned. I’m just jaded enough right now where I expect whatever plan we lay out there to blow up in our faces. 

I'm in the camp that doesn’t really care who closes tomorrow, if we are even in that position I would be thrilled. If we are up by 1 or more 3 outs away from winning and Robert Gasser is all we have left in the pen than so be it, I will take it.

[kestrel79]

39 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Abner is as good of an idea as any to start the game to me, with the understanding that it’ll probably backfire and we’ll be down 3 with Uribe already burned. I’m just jaded enough right now where I expect whatever plan we lay out there to blow up in our faces. 

I'm in the camp that doesn’t really care who closes tomorrow, if we are even in that position I would be thrilled. If we are up by 1 or more 3 outs away from winning and Robert Gasser is all we have left in the pen than so be it, I will take it.

Yeah we thought we were looking really good Wednesday night with Priester lined up to pitch, and then Freddy last night. It all sounds great on paper...but it didn't happen.

Need the bats tomorrow. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The other side of the coin on this game is that no one ever knows when these things turn around. When the Cubs went down 3-1 in 2016 and Chapman had to hang on for a nailbiter save in Game 5, I'm sure plenty of folks thought here we go again. Same when the Red Sox went down 3-0 in 2004. Not saying it'll happen to us. It might never turn around. But baseball life is long, and I feel like, for once, a win would be more exhilarating than a loss would be deflating. At least from where I sit.

I think there are a couple of keys for us, aside from putting up some early zeroes.

First is getting Hoerner out. That guy's had a great series, and something I haven't understood very well is why we keep pitching him with hard stuff away and soft stuff down when he's clearly trying to go the other way. Bust that guy in, especially if you get to two strikes. Have to make the adjustment there because him getting on base is so big for them.

During our ABs, we've so far done a poor job of balancing between patience and aggression. Game 1 we came out hacking. Games 3 and 4 we took a lot of pitches, probably too many. Game 2 we balanced this well, and that's what we need to do. Sure, make good swing choices, but we have to put good swings on pitches in the zone because Cubs pitchers are attacking. I hope we spend the off day on a lot of scouting and data review.

Chourio's injury has hurt our aggression on the basepaths. He's been the only one of our speedy guys to get on base regularly, and his running is obviously impacted. I'm not sure there's much we can do about that. The Cubs have good pickoff moves and have neutralized the running game pretty well. But the biggest issue is that Turang and Frelick haven't been able to get on base. If we don't slug, we need to steal.

How our lefties hit seems like the key factor in this one.  

[Team Canada]

If Murph just wants a lefty to force Counsell to sit Busch and wasn't trying to go multiple, I think you just put Koenig in there and then run Miz or Patrick in some order.
Especially since they've really only done damage in the first inning (I'm not going to count Gasser), I think we need a good start for once - that's one reason I'd rather not start Miz because we could find ourself in exactly the same situation if he's not finding the plate.

At the end of the day though, there's no starter going here, so it's just a matter of getting 27 outs without them scoring more runs than we do. I don't care about the order or how many pitchers it takes. The A team needs to execute, and if they do, I like our chances.

[brewmann04]

1982 WS without question

[willie key]

******* Priester owes us something here

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Sure, make good swing choices

Did someone say “good swing choices?”

[TURBO]

Thought this was humorous.   How Cubs fans view the Brewers:

(please excuse the f-bombs, but they play an important part of the narrative here)

 

[BarremlensTSSC]

16 hours ago, bm1090 said:

It’s obviously going to be a bullpen game. I think I’d start Patrick. He’s been lights out. Would be cool to save him for later but we need someone to come in and set the tone.

Would also give heavy consideration to Bauers in Left, Frelick in Center, and Chourio in right. Or at least be willing to go that way after the first time through the order if you’re down a run or two.

I get it on the notion of trying to juice the lineup but Bauers in LF has Kotsay in CF vibes.  Maybe he'd be fine, but it's a pretty big gamble based on his play out there late in the year.  I think you have roll with Blake in CF assuming that Yelich can't play LF, which certainly appears to be the conclusion the Brewers have reached.

[BarremlensTSSC]

34 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Did someone say “good swing choices?”

Jeez.  I knew that one was bad but it looks worse there than it did in real time.  Yelich's strike 3 swing choice in the 5th with 2 on and 1 out was pretty bad too.

[BarremlensTSSC]

18 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Thought this was humorous.   How Cubs fans view the Brewers:

(please excuse the f-bombs, but they play an important part of the narrative here)

 

That's awesome.  Thanks for sharing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still think I'd prefer Miz starting tomorrow night over anyone else....but if there's hesitancy at all with how he'd react at this point to getting the start, I think I'd want any secondary option starting the game to be a righty (Patrick, Anderson, Megill, even Uribe) - for the sole reason to have Busch penciled in at the leadoff spot and not just on the bench waiting to pinch hit at the most opportune time later in the game.  I don't like the idea of Quintana starting on 2 days rest and facing Turner/Hoerner/Tucker/Suzuki/Righty Happ - then having Busch to slot in later in the game against a righty with runners on base.  Priester also threw too many pitches Wednesday for me to want him starting this game - I think the layoff/bye impacted how rusty he came out Wednesday, and getting nothing from him completely altered this series.  It was a very well thought out plan from Murphy (not referring at all to the lineup shenanigans, just the pitching plan), and Priester simply crapped the bed.  That sucks, because he was such a huge part of why the Brewers got to the point they're at.

It's also worth noting that the Cubs have done all their HR damage off low-mid 90s fastballs this series, the lone exception being Suzuki's HR of Ashby on a chest-high 92 mph changeup that missed its location by at least a foot and a half.  Brewer starters have really struggled locating their secondary pitches, and even though the Cubs do struggle with high velocity, if they know they can largely spit on anything offspeed against pitchers who don't have 98 in the tank they are gearing up to do damage against the "decent" 92-95 mph heat.  I think Patrick has pitched well this series in large part because his four seamer has been sitting 96-98 and he's been able to command his cutter and throw strikes with it.  Miz got on a decent roll because he was able to reasonably command his low 90s slider/cutter in the zone and get called strikes on it on top of overwhelming most of the hitters with triple digit four seamers/sinkers.  Freddy used his changeup effectively in game 1 off 95+mph heat after he served up the gopher ball to Busch - last night he struggled to throw it for strikes and labored having to rely too much on his fastball.

None of this matters at all if the Brewers can't hit...but I think this game swings one way or the other significantly early depending how the first Brewer to take the hill fares against the top of the order. 

 

[BarremlensTSSC]

Cubs fan walked into my office with a smirk on his face today.  Started talking about last night's game.  "Stop," I said.  "Did I come down to your office after game 1 or game 2?"  "No," they said.  "Then get out."  "Oh come on..." - "I'm not joking."  I said.  "I can't take it so I don't dish it out."  (Pause.)  "Can we at least agree that neither of these teams is getting past the Dodgers?" I said.  "Of course not" they said laughing "but I do want to get past you guys."  "Same here" I said, "now get out." Which they did, still laughing.

[BarremlensTSSC]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I still think I'd prefer Miz starting tomorrow night over anyone else....but if there's hesitancy at all with how he'd react at this point to getting the start, I think I'd want any secondary option starting the game to be a righty (Patrick, Anderson, Megill, even Uribe) - for the sole reason to have Busch penciled in at the leadoff spot and not just on the bench waiting to pinch hit at the most opportune time later in the game.  I don't like the idea of Quintana starting on 2 days rest and facing Turner/Hoerner/Tucker/Suzuki/Righty Happ - then having Busch to slot in later in the game against a righty with runners on base.  Priester also threw too many pitches Wednesday for me to want him starting this game - I think the layoff/bye impacted how rusty he came out Wednesday, and getting nothing from him completely altered this series.  It was a very well thought out plan from Murphy (not referring at all to the lineup shenanigans, just the pitching plan), and Priester simply crapped the bed.  That sucks, because he was such a huge part of why the Brewers got to the point they're at.

It's also worth noting that the Cubs have done all their HR damage off low-mid 90s fastballs this series, the lone exception being Suzuki's HR of Ashby on a chest-high 92 mph changeup that missed its location by at least a foot and a half.  Brewer starters have really struggled locating their secondary pitches, and even though the Cubs do struggle with high velocity, if they know they can largely spit on anything offspeed against pitchers who don't have 98 in the tank they are gearing up to do damage against the "decent" 92-95 mph heat.  I think Patrick has pitched well this series in large part because his four seamer has been sitting 96-98 and he's been able to command his cutter and throw strikes with it.  Miz got on a decent roll because he was able to reasonably command his low 90s slider/cutter in the zone and get called strikes on it on top of overwhelming most of the hitters with triple digit four seamers/sinkers.  Freddy used his changeup effectively in game 1 off 95+mph heat after he served up the gopher ball to Busch - last night he struggled to throw it for strikes and labored having to rely too much on his fastball.

None of this matters at all if the Brewers can't hit...but I think this game swings one way or the other significantly early depending how the first Brewer to take the hill fares against the top of the order. 

 

I'm not sure I have a preference because I don't think any of the options are that great, but I honestly suspect it will be Miz.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's also the frustration of a short playoff series - Brewers have lost the last two games largely due to 3 total swings of the bat from the Cub side of things, which are exponentially magnified because the Brewer bats have gone cold.  Anything can happen in a winner take series game, so hopefully randomness goes in the Brewers favor and a few guys we're crapping on most of this last week come up big tomorrow night.