Make it make sense

[lcbj68c]

The Brewers in July during 162-game exhibition:
Five Inning Freddy
Woodruff
Priester
Miz
Quintana
Patrick/Myers/Henderson/Civale

The Brewers in October:
4 Inning Freddy
17 guys out of the bullpen.
 

#SameStory #SameEnding #EveryGDMFYear

[pitchleague]

Well, let's see . . . 

Freddy . . . things finally caught up to him after a full season of really good pitching.  He still pitched well in the playoffs but not nearly as well as during the season.

Woodruff . . . hurt again at the worst possible time.  Sorry to say, I think it's time to cut bait as he's become unreliable in a way.

Priester . . . the guy was good and Murphy supported him completely.  And then game three in Chicago happened and suddenly Murph didn't trust him anymore.

Miz . . . he pitched poorly the last month or so and, thus, Murph didn't trust him anymore.  His playoff pitching might have changed things for the future.  Hopefully.

Quintana . . . what do you expect when (pardon me if you've already heard this before) he got hurt at the worst possible time and then (again, I apologize) Murph didn't trust him anymore

Patrick . . . he pitched brilliantly then got sent down for Miz and it's like Murph kind of forgot that he was really good.  He showed his stuff in the playoffs (867-ft. Ohtani home run excluded)

Myers . . . he pitched brilliantly last year but got hurt or didn't do well in spring training (don't remember which) and, thus, Murph lost confidence in the guy.   (I'm sensing a theme here.  I don't know why? [/blue text]

Henderson . . .  he pitched brilliantly and then got hurt, blah, blah, blah

Civale . . . who cares, honestly?

 

Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury of putting our pitchers on the IL in the middle of the season to save up their arms for the post-season.  We just don't have a team that can say, "eh, we'll still win 90 games regardless."

Injuries, even though they're relatively minor, are kind of alarming that they all seem to happen near the end of the season so we have no real horses for the playoffs.  I wonder if they'll address that at all in the off-season.

 

 

[yfinn6]

It's going to be difficult for me to blame the pitching in this series. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

26 minutes ago, pitchleague said:

 

 

Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury of putting our pitchers on the IL in the middle of the season to save up their arms for the post-season.  We just don't have a team that can say, "eh, we'll still win 90 games regardless."

 

 

 

What a great point.👍

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

What a great point.👍

Yeah... but we kinda do. That's not so much the problem as when they come back, they're not Cy Young winners all peaking. 

You could give Peralta some rest, he's not Blake Snell(when Snell is one, he's also a bit hit or miss). 
 

Our rotation next year, assuming Ashby returns to it will be
Peralta
Priester
Patrick
Misiorowski
Myers
Montgomery(that's just my own personal theory, we were willing to take him back to sign him to a cheap deal as he rehabs from TJ.
Gasser
Ashby
Logan Henderson

And then starters who seem more likely to star their career in the pen, Wichrowski, Hardin, Hunt, Letson(not sure he'll be ready next year, but perhaps in a BP role).

We just ran into a buzzsaw in the Dodgers and... again, this REALLY wasn't the year we were supposed to be... at our best. 

That'll come with Fischer, Burke, Wilken, Adams, MADE, PENA, Dinges, Quero, Lara, Pratt...

Chourio is ready to break out and become an MVP caliber player ...IMO. 

 

Yes, every year we have finished the season losing or winning in a meaningless game. The Dodgers are going to be flooded with talent, particularly because they develop it as well as the Brewers, but I'm not discouraged by this season. 

Not when I know how much we have on the way, how much young talent is already up here. 

 

 

In the end, I watched multiple 9+ game win streaks, 97 wins, a 26-4 stretch, the Brewers eliminate the Cubs in a year they went all in to get Kyle Tucker(who'll likely end up in LA again next year) and I know Jesus walks and he hits and he can play a damn good SS, 2B or 3B, wherever we need him. 

So I'll go into this off-season pretty optimistic. 

[wntrtxn21]

Where it once looked extremely doubtful, I think after the embarrassing fiasco that just happened, the Brewers might look at trading Peralta (especially if they re-sign Woody with a "show me" type contract) for MLB ready help. With Woody, they have enough good young arms and can add a low level FA to have a pretty good starting staff. They need an outfielder badly. Collins and Perkins are no better than 4th or 5th outfielders and they can't depend on an often injured Mitchell for anything. SS is a prime need given Ortiz's well documented problems with the bat. I don't see MA willing to open the purse strings to pay out big numbers for a FA, so trades are the only option. No matter what, Milwaukee can't stand pat!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Woodruff isn't going to exercise his side of the option but if he's even willing to talk, the Brewers need to listen. I think he's going to get priced out of our capability, but it would be nuts to let him go if he's willing to sign here for our price, injury concerns or not.

Honestly, I know this was a terrible series, but I personally think it had more to do with us having an inopportune dryspell than payrolls and a talent disparity. The Dodgers are certainly better, but not "we can only score 1 run a game" better. The majority of this team can be brought back, with the exception of Ortiz, who we just can't move ahead with. 

I would also agree with trading Freddy if we like an offer. Miz is your ace.

[liveforoctober]

8 hours ago, lcbj68c said:

The Brewers in July during 162-game exhibition:
Five Inning Freddy
Woodruff
Priester
Miz
Quintana
Patrick/Myers/Henderson/Civale

The Brewers in October:
4 Inning Freddy
17 guys out of the bullpen.
 

#SameStory #SameEnding #EveryGDMFYear

In 9 post season games against the #2 and #5 scoring offenses in baseball the Brewers arms gave up a total of 32 runs.
 

The pitching was World Series ready. Unfortunately, the bats just never arrived against LA.

[adambr2]

The Dodgers averaged 3.75 runs per game in the NLCS.

We averaged 1 run per game. 

Neither Freddy Peralta nor the 17 guys out of the bullpen is very high up on the list of reasons why we lost this series.

[yfinn6]

If they trade Peralta, they need to get back a solid piece, IMO. I don't think that will happen, either. Maybe it will. The Brewers may just need his innings more than they need to trade him. 

I personally would wish Woodruff well and let him get his money elsewhere unless there aren't any offers and he wants something team friendly. There are enough openings out there so I suspect a willing team will offer him a few year deal for league average $ and I think he should take whatever he can get. Love the guy but I'm just not sure the Brewers should invest any serious money into him at this point. 

[adambr2]

21 minutes ago, yfinn6 said:

If they trade Peralta, they need to get back a solid piece, IMO. I don't think that will happen, either. Maybe it will. The Brewers may just need his innings more than they need to trade him. 

I personally would wish Woodruff well and let him get his money elsewhere unless there aren't any offers and he wants something team friendly. There are enough openings out there so I suspect a willing team will offer him a few year deal for league average $ and I think he should take whatever he can get. Love the guy but I'm just not sure the Brewers should invest any serious money into him at this point. 

I am ok with either way, keeping him or trading him. I think people will be underwhelmed with a Peralta return.

The comp is probably the Burnes trade, which was Ortiz, DL Hall, and Blake Burke. Has had some moments where it looked good but it looks like a whole lot of meh right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

IIRC there's a mutual option with Woody for $20 million with a $10 million buyout. I could see a scenario where Woody decides to take his end. He's coming off shoulder surgery and ended the season injured. He might get a better deal somewhere else but he probably get a much better deal by staying healthy and productive for a full year. There would be no better place to do a prove you're healthy as still productive season that than here. If he does the Brewers would be stupid not to take him back. It would only be a $10 million risk.

[adambr2]

Just now, Thurston Fluff said:

IIRC there's a mutual option with Woody for $20 million with a $10 million buyout. I could see a scenario where Woody decides to take his end. He's coming off shoulder surgery and ended the season injured. He might get a better deal somewhere else but he probably get a much better deal by staying healthy and productive for a full year. There would be no better place to do a prove you're healthy as still productive season that than here. If he does the Brewers would be stupid not to take him back. It would only be a $10 million risk.

I think the buyout makes it nearly certain he won’t be back. That’s a surplus of 1/10 for him on the option and he can do far better than that on the open market.

He proved he could pitch effectively after the shoulder surgery, that was the big thing for him. The lat strain is unfortunate but unrelated, and this is the first time really in his career that he’ll have an opportunity to enter free agency fully healthy. I think he deserves to take advantage of that and get 3/75 from somebody and I think he will.

[Thurston Fluff]

51 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I think the buyout makes it nearly certain he won’t be back. That’s a surplus of 1/10 for him on the option and he can do far better than that on the open market.

He proved he could pitch effectively after the shoulder surgery, that was the big thing for him. The lat strain is unfortunate but unrelated, and this is the first time really in his career that he’ll have an opportunity to enter free agency fully healthy. I think he deserves to take advantage of that and get 3/75 from somebody and I think he will.

He also ended the season injured and tailed off a bit as the season went on. I think teams will want to see him stay healthy and productive for a full season before committing $25 million a year. I think he could end up with a Hoskins prove it type of deal as easily as he does a 3/75. 

[Samurai Bucky]

I might even suggest August 15 - September 1.

During that time, I am not sure the arms were given a full opportunity to recover.  That not only led to injuries, but let to fatigue later on in the year.  

Someone made an interesting point on the NLCS broadcast -- the timeline for Snell is like he is pitching in June.  Ohtani the same.  The Brewers had a lot of innings on their arms and, I would suggest, extra stress because of the 21 games in 20 days.

I would also suggest that we, as fans, expect players that are dominant in AAA to automatically be dominant in the show.  

The Brewers lack of depth during the season contributed to the poor performance in the playoffs.

[dlk9s]

15 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

The Brewers lack of depth during the season contributed to the poor performance in the playoffs.

The Brewers pitching was good in the playoffs.

The Brewers hitting was bad, and it wasn't because of depth. With pitchers no longer hitting, you don't need hitting depth in the playoffs.

[adambr2]

29 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

He also ended the season injured and tailed off a bit as the season went on. I think teams will want to see him stay healthy and productive for a full season before committing $25 million a year. I think he could end up with a Hoskins prove it type of deal as easily as he does a 3/75. 

Maybe. But I guess I would still stand by my point that it wouldn’t make much financial sense for him to pitch for us for 20 million, when he can get 10 million to not pitch for us plus whatever another team will give him to pitch for them. 

[adambr2]

2 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

The Brewers pitching was good in the playoffs.

The Brewers hitting was bad, and it wasn't because of depth. With pitchers no longer hitting, you don't need hitting depth in the playoffs.

Yeah I don’t think depth played into the NLCS defeat much. I think the lack of any studs in the lineup did.

[Samurai Bucky]

19 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

The Brewers pitching was good in the playoffs.

The Brewers hitting was bad, and it wasn't because of depth. With pitchers no longer hitting, you don't need hitting depth in the playoffs.

I agree -- the hitting was abysmal.  I think the hitting approach was much to blame...

To the original question:

13 hours ago, lcbj68c said:

The Brewers in July during 162-game exhibition:
Five Inning Freddy
Woodruff
Priester
Miz
Quintana
Patrick/Myers/Henderson/Civale

The Brewers in October:
4 Inning Freddy
17 guys out of the bullpen.

My argument is more around these guys not being as sharp.  If Priester pitches against the Dodgers like he did during the season, it is a lot different.  The pitching was fine because of Murphy rolling out a lot of guys on short rest (and Ashby having an arm that is now three inches longer 😉)

But to point at what the main reason was behind the Brewers losing the NLCS -- it was the hitting, for sure.

[bucks2281]

Pitching depth was not an issue in the NLCS, but I suspect it would have been an issue had the series gone to 6-7 games. 

[Thurston Fluff]

50 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Maybe. But I guess I would still stand by my point that it wouldn’t make much financial sense for him to pitch for us for 20 million, when he can get 10 million to not pitch for us plus whatever another team will give him to pitch for them. 

The other part of my reasoning is to maximize his future value he needs to be in a good situation to have a good year. If he goes to a place for an extra $10 million that he'd get here but get pushed too hard or not have the pitching pedigree the Brewers have he could lose far more than he gains. I don't think there's a better situation for a one year prove it deal than what the Brewers offer.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There's no chance Woodruff exercises his option. He needs to get paid. He's 32. He was much better this year than what that option is going to pay him and he needs the longevity. 

Someone who can do it will happily eat the risk that he might get hurt in order to have a player of his caliber on the roster. All the better if they DL him half the year a la LAD. 

[torts]

Oh yeah we have Garrett mitchell, hope he can stay healthy!  Chourio, mitchell, Frelick OF?  YES PLZ

[Thurston Fluff]

26 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

There's no chance Woodruff exercises his option. He needs to get paid. He's 32. He was much better this year than what that option is going to pay him and he needs the longevity. 

Someone who can do it will happily eat the risk that he might get hurt in order to have a player of his caliber on the roster. All the better if they DL him half the year a la LAD. 

Why would a team capable of absorbing that much risk not just buy a pitcher of the same caliber who doesn't have that much risk? Your last sentence is exactly why Woody may prefer to stay here. He doesn't want to be stashed away for half a year so the team can save him for the playoffs. Woody's situation seems more like what a team like the Brewers deal in than the Dodgers.

[Brian]

2 minutes ago, torts said:

Oh yeah we have Garrett mitchell, hope he can stay healthy!  Chourio, mitchell, Frelick OF?  YES PLZ

Joey Weimer's available. 😁