Brewers (Henderson) vs Nationals (Poulin): 5/3/26, 12:35pm

[Jim French Stepstool]

42 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I just said he needs to do better in this area. The statheads are telling me he's Tony Gwynn. I didn't think it was a big deal. He's got to put it in play more.

I've read the back and forth. C'mon. No one is saying anything resembling that.

[Bulldogboy]

Mitchell needs to pick up especially with putting the ball in play more to increase his overall level of production. There is nothing you can say to make that an untrue  statement. I have seen him mention that same fact. If you're good with him he can breathe a sigh of relief. Hitting 231 and 750 ops isn't anything to be excited about in my opinion but knowing that you're good with him at current production is fine. Doesn't change my opinion one bit.

[Bulldogboy]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I've read the back and forth. C'mon. No one is saying anything resembling that.

Only here are people saying a guy hitting 233 with 750 ops is doing great and can't stand to improve at all. He's an anchor to out top 3 offense. 😆 I realize people are fans but jeez.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Only here are people saying a guy hitting 233 with 750 ops is doing great and can't stand to improve at all. He's an anchor to out top 3 offense. 😆 I realize people are fans but jeez.

The at bats are so low that if he has a 2 hit night he will be back up to .250 

We always have Greg Jones to replace him. 😆

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Mitchell needs to pick up especially with putting the ball in play more to increase his overall level of production. There is nothing you can say to make that an untrue  statement. I have seen him mention that same fact. If you're good with him he can breathe a sigh of relief. Hitting 231 and 750 ops isn't anything to be excited about in my opinion but knowing that you're good with him at current production is fine. Doesn't change my opinion one bit.

A CFer with a .750 OPS and Mitchell’s speed and defense would play in the majors for a decade or more. 
 

Lorenzo Cain 13 years .749 OPS

Mike Cameron 17 years .249 BA .782 OPS

Carlos Gómez 13 years .724 OPS

Devon White 17 years .739 OPS

[Collectively 8 All Star appearances too]

If Mitchell has super star potential then yes, he should pick up his game. If this is his ceiling (low BA with .750 OPS) the Brewers don’t need to worry about CF so long as he’s healthy. 

[igor67]

I think most people recognize that the high strikeouts do make Mitchell a significant risk to flame out. Certainly they also present a big upside for him in that if he does stay healthy enough to really get some serious ABs he might really find some adjustments that help him cut that number down. On the risk side, seemingly anything that gets him out of whack could really lead to looking completely lost really fast. Possibly the bigger one though is that he is approaching that mythical peak age. So if he doesn't make those adjustments, father time stealing that small fraction of youth could also start to push the K rate higher and everything falls apart that way.

In the meantime though he is producing and giving some of the other potential replacements the chance to get some more seasoning (Lara, etc) and that is pretty helpful.

[jay87shot]

8 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I think most people recognize that the high strikeouts do make Mitchell a significant risk to flame out. Certainly they also present a big upside for him in that if he does stay healthy enough to really get some serious ABs he might really find some adjustments that help him cut that number down. On the risk side, seemingly anything that gets him out of whack could really lead to looking completely lost really fast. Possibly the bigger one though is that he is approaching that mythical peak age. So if he doesn't make those adjustments, father time stealing that small fraction of youth could also start to push the K rate higher and everything falls apart that way.

In the meantime though he is producing and giving some of the other potential replacements the chance to get some more seasoning (Lara, etc) and that is pretty helpful.

Agreed, what is amazing is that Mitchell has yet to play 100 games in any season and around 100 the past 2 years combined. I would expect that he is going to need multiple adjustments throughout the season and we should hopefully see the real genuine Mitchell later in the year. If he is a league average hitter now who if taking really high walks hopefully when he gets that strikeout rate down to a bearable level he will be great. Worst case for me is that Lara pushes him out of CF by midseason and he battles Sal for RF playing time.

[sveumrules]

2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 33.9 K% and .376 BABIP.
2026 Mitchell currently has a 36.0 K% and .408 BABIP.

2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 10.2 BB% and .179 ISO.
2026 Mitchell currently has an 18.4 BB% and .121 ISO.

2022 to 2025 Mitchell ran a 114 wRC+ over 443 PA.
2026 Mitchell currently has a 114 wRC+ over 114 PA.

Garrett has somehow managed to take his already extreme plate profile to even farther out reaches so far this year with no change in the end of line results.

Pretty remarkable, really. I'm just happy he's been healthy.

[adambr2]

I like Mitchell, a lot. I think his speed and defense is a great fit for what we do, and I think he’s going to give us more power than what we’ve seen so far this year.

If he could get that K rate down to the 25-27% range, I think he could be an All-Star level player. As it is, if he stays heathy and plays a full season, I still think he’ll be a 2.5-3 WAR type player.

I think it’s fair to point out that if you can’t get your K rate to a manageable level, it can derail a career quickly like it did for Keon Broxton and Keston Hiura, who were very good at other things but just couldn’t get their K rates under control. 

Mike Cameron is a good comp but he was 24.1% for his career. If Garrett could get to that he’d be an amazing player and I’d love to see it.

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I like Mitchell, a lot. I think his speed and defense is a great fit for what we do, and I think he’s going to give us more power than what we’ve seen so far this year.

If he could get that K rate down to the 25-27% range, I think he could be an All-Star level player. As it is, if he stays heathy and plays a full season, I still think he’ll be a 2.5-3 WAR type player.

I think it’s fair to point out that if you can’t get your K rate to a manageable level, it can derail a career quickly like it did for Keon Broxton and Keston Hiura, who were very good at other things but just couldn’t get their K rates under control. 

Mike Cameron is a good comp but he was 24.1% for his career. If Garrett could get to that he’d be an amazing player and I’d love to see it.

When Cameron played from 1995 thru 2011 the league average strikeout rate gradually rose from 15.7% to 18.1%, so his 24.1% K rate shook out to a 147 K+.

During the last five years that Mitchell has been active the league average strikeout rate has been between 22.1% and 22.7%, so his 34.3% K rate has shaken out to a 154 K+.

Still worse than Cameron, no doubt, but not as much as the raw 10% difference might imply given how much the K rate exploded in the decade between their respective careers.

Thru 557 career PA Mitchell has a 114 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR.

During his prime from 1997 to 2009 Cameron had a 109 wRC+ and averaged 3.9 WAR per 557 PA.

[igor67]

Surprised that WAR comes out the same for both of them since Cameron was generally thought of as one of the best if not the best CF in that time frame as I recall. Granted Mitchell has that slight edge with the bat, but I'm guessing he is also grading out a little better at the base running as well.

[sveumrules]

41 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Surprised that WAR comes out the same for both of them since Cameron was generally thought of as one of the best if not the best CF in that time frame as I recall. Granted Mitchell has that slight edge with the bat, but I'm guessing he is also grading out a little better at the base running as well.

Looking at the individual WAR components Mitchell is at +9.1 batting, +5.2 base running, and +5.3 fielding runs so far for his career.

Over that 1997-2009 window looks like Cameron was at +6.2 batting, +3.9 base running, and +8.7 fielding runs per 557 PA.

Part of that base running edge for Mitchell also comes down to UBR (going 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, etc without making outs on the bases) not being tracked for the first five years of Cameron's run so he's probably losing a couple two tree tents of a run there.

[kestrel79]

Just want to see Mitchell healthy for a full season or two here and see how he does. Like others have mentioned he has missed major time every season so far.

Will be curious if he can adjust once teams find the holes in his swings like what happened to Keston and Keon. But being healthy is the biggest thing.

[sveumrules]

One other thing the Mitchell / Cameron comparison does is exemplify the effect that batted ball profile can have on BABIP.

97-09 Cameron (109 wRC+)
125 BB+ | 147 K+ | 101 BABIP+
96 LD+ | 82 GB+ | 123 FB+
107 Pull+ | 98 Cent+ | 93 Oppo+

22-26 Mitchell (114 wRC+)
137 BB+ | 154 K+ | 130 BABIP+
107 LD+ | 116 GB+ | 78 FB+
89 Pull+ | 101 Cent+ | 118 Oppo+

Two very fast players, with similar walk and strikeout heavy profiles, but one was a righty pulling a bunch of fly balls and ended up with an average BABIP while the other sprays a bunch of ground balls and line drives the other way out of the lefty box.
 

[wallus]

My only disappointment with Mitchell so far has been the defense. I wish they would have him play a little more shallow.

[gregmag]

14 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

I just said he needs to do better in this area. The statheads are telling me he's Tony Gwynn. I didn't think it was a big deal. He's got to put it in play more.

Nobody’s telling you he’s Tony Gwynn or Aaron Judge. Please stop. I’m sure you’re a smart person. If you can’t handle intelligent, nuanced analysis, maybe do some reading and get up to speed.