Padres (Waldron) vs Brewers (Sproat): 5/12/26, 6:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Should be an interesting series. The Padres have faded since their hot start (that was at least partially luck-based), while the Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured. Baseball is weird, man.

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	0	0	13	0	13
Shane Drohan	0	40	0	0	0	40
Jake Woodford	0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Anderson	0	0	0	0	0	0
DL Hall	0	0	16	20	0	36
Chad Patrick	0	0	48	0	0	48
Brian Fitzpatrick	0	0	0	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	0	0	0	14	0	14
Aaron Ashby	0	0	27	18	0	45

[sveumrules]

HITTERS
Brewers
97 wRC+ (19th) | 5.13 R/G (5th) | +2.06 WPA (4th)
Padres
92 wRC+ (25th) | 4.25 R/G (20th) | +1.59 WPA (5th)
[both teams have been opportunistic on offense ranking 1st and 2nd in FanGraphs Clutch metric]

STARTING PITCHERS
Brewers
85 ERA- (6th) | 88 FIP- (3rd) | +1.44 WPA (7th)
Padres
116 ERA- (26th) | 101 FIP- (19th) | +0.50 WPA (16th)
[clear edge to the Brewers here]

RELIEF PITCHERS
Brewers
85 ERA- (6th) | 81 FIP- (3rd) | -0.50 WPA (24th)
Padres
90 ERA- (8th) | 79 FIP- (2nd) | +1.91 WPA (4th)
[not too different on a rate basis in terms of either run prevention or peripherals, but big leverage advantage for the Padres with only five credited losses for their pen on the season versus eight for the Brewers. Arrows pointing in opposite directions though with Brewers relievers at -1.52 WPA (25th) thru April 25th but +1.03 WPA (8th) since while the Padres were at +2.12 WPA (3rd) thru April 25th but -0.21 WPA (25th) since]

FanGraphs gives the Brewers 54.4% Playoff Odds compared to 38.2% for the Padres while PECOTA has it as 66.3% for the Brewers versus 45.2% for the Padres.

If we flip FanGraphs from their default projections over to Season to Date mode it jumps to 82.8% Playoff Odds for the Brewers and 46.8% for the Padres.

Looks like FG's Season to Date mode also slightly favors the Brewers (41.5%) over the Cubs (36.1%) to win the division at this point.

[Underachiever]

Sproat for 5, Drohan for 3, then the ninth will be determined if it's a save situation or not. I'll go with not, so Grant Anderson finishes out a 6-2 victory.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured

Finally got rid of that dead weight holding us back.

[kestrel79]

Surprised to see the Pads out to a hot start. Didn't they sign a lot of their guys from their "core" a few years ago to all big contracts, and trade away a lot of their minor league talent to "win now" and it backfired on them? Or is it a lot of guys from that older core healthy to start a season plus some new guys as well. 

[yourout]

Looking forward to this series. 

Padres are an interesting team and hopefully we can keep the W train rolling.

[Brian]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Should be an interesting series. The Padres have faded since their hot start (that was at least partially luck-based), while the Brewers have the best rotation in baseball since Woodruff was injured. Baseball is weird, man.

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	0	0	13	0	13
Shane Drohan	0	40	0	0	0	40
Jake Woodford	0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Anderson	0	0	0	0	0	0
DL Hall	0	0	16	20	0	36
Chad Patrick	0	0	48	0	0	48
Brian Fitzpatrick	0	0	0	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	0	0	0	14	0	14
Aaron Ashby	0	0	27	18	0	45

Did SD change there mind on who was pitching? 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/padres-vs-brewers/2026/05/12/823790/preview

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, Brian said:

Did SD change there mind on who was pitching? 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/padres-vs-brewers/2026/05/12/823790/preview

Looks like Rodriguez will be the opener, with Waldron following.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

[liveforoctober]

13 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

How will we get our first 20 game winner in 4 decades if we don't pitch him?

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Looking forward to seeing the Brandon Sproat story continue to unfold. Pretty raw, but easy 99-100 can get you excited.

Love the shape of the BP going into this series. You may want to give Ashby one more day but otherwise good to go.

Yelich's return was sounding imminent. Anything new?

Would imagine Murph will give us a definitive update this afternoon.

If I had to bet, though, I think he'll return in Minnesota or Chicago (which they'd ideally want him for). 

[liveforoctober]

 

I wonder how tempting it will be to put Chourio in center and have Bauers play left to keep his bat in the lineup against RHP.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, liveforoctober said:

 

I wonder how tempting it will be to put Chourio in center and have Bauers play left to keep his bat in the lineup against RHP.

I'd say somewhat tempting. I've never been hot on Chourio playing CF. Not that he can't. I just feel more comfortable defensively with him in LF and a Mitchell, Lockridge, or Perkins in CF. Of course, one of those three is out, one is (oddly) having more success vs LHP & the third is also much better vs lefties.

I'd bet we'll see it, maybe more than a time or two. Another ? is do we ever see Yelich in left, something I wouldn't advocate.

Here's hoping Black continues to put up good ABs in Nashville. He may be needed later. Hell, last years' team needed Steward Berroa for a time.

[liveforoctober]

4 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'd say somewhat tempting. I've never been hot on Chourio playing CF. Not that he can't. I just feel more comfortable defensively with him in LF and a Mitchell, Lockridge, or Perkins in CF. Of course, one of those three is out, one is (oddly) having more success vs LHP & the third is also much better vs lefties.

I'd bet we'll see it, maybe more than a time or two. Another ? is do we ever see Yelich in left, something I wouldn't advocate.

Here's hoping Black continues to put up good ABs in Nashville. He may be needed later. Hell, last years' team needed Steward Berroa for a time.

I've said this in a few threads but the forgotten man out there right now is Akil Baddoo and I think he will have a chapter written on this season before it's all said and done. I don't know if it will be a positive or negative impact but I think he will be called on soon enough once he is back.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, liveforoctober said:

How will we get our first 20 game winner in 4 decades if we don't pitch him?

I had to look it up. In 1959 Pirates' reliever Elroy Face won 18 games while also finding the time to save ten. Apparently his arm didn't fall off as he lasted until 1969 with the expansion Montreal Expos.

[willie key]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I had to look it up. In 1959 Pirates' reliever Elroy Face won 18 games while also finding the time to save ten. Apparently his arm didn't fall off as he lasted until 1969 with the expansion Montreal Expos.

Baseball needs to bring back the expos.    No one cares about the marlins or rays.   Give Montreal a team

[markedman5]

 

[liveforoctober]

5 minutes ago, willie key said:

Baseball needs to bring back the expos.    No one cares about the marlins or rays.   Give Montreal a team

I won't speak on the Marlins but the Rays are typically run so well ... Montreal would eat that up. Having a good team there would be awesome. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I've said this in a few threads but the forgotten man out there right now is Akil Baddoo and I think he will have a chapter written on this season before it's all said and done. I don't know if it will be a positive or negative impact but I think he will be called on soon enough once he is back.

If they maintain health in the OF, It might be tough for Baddoo cuz then he's in line with Perkins & Lockridge for pretty much one spot. Of course there may be health issues & you never know if Mitchell falls off the face of the earth, too. Bottom line, you need the organizational depth & I'm glad he's around.

[willie key]

4 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

If they maintain health in the OF, It might be tough for Baddoo cuz then he's in line with Perkins & Lockridge for pretty much one spot. Of course there may be health issues & you never know if Mitchell falls off the face of the earth, too. Bottom line, you need the organizational depth & I'm glad he's around.

Where’s the event horizon for the face of the earth because Mitchell is right there and hopefully his balance is ok

[Bulldogboy]

I kept hearing how we needed Vaughn back badly. Someone tell Murphy because the guy never is in there against righty since he came back. We know what Bauers is. How do we find out about Vaughn?

[willie key]

19 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I kept hearing how we needed Vaughn back badly. Someone tell Murphy because the guy never is in there against righty since he came back. We know what Bauers is. How do we find out about Vaughn?

They might be slow playing Vaughn for awhile.   He is coming off a broken bone in his hand.     I think you will see more Vaughn full time as season plays out.  

[Frisbee Slider]

19 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I kept hearing how we needed Vaughn back badly. Someone tell Murphy because the guy never is in there against righty since he came back. We know what Bauers is. How do we find out about Vaughn?

We know Bauers has .874 OPS against RHP this season and .536 OPS against LHP.

Vaughn hits LHP way better than Bauers. 
Bauers can reasonably be expected to hit better against RHP today.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We know Bauers has .874 OPS against RHP this season and .536 OPS against LHP.

Vaughn hits LHP way better than Bauers. 
Bauers can reasonably be expected to hit better against RHP today.

Yes. Plus, the team has played five games since Vaughn came back. He's started four. And in the one game he didn't start, he PH. I don't see us lacking any attempt to 'find out' anything about Vaughn. As long as he's healthy he'll be out there plenty.