Brewers (Henderson) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 7/9/26, 6:45pm

[LouisEly]

The Classies were only 2 games back of the final WC spot going into tonight, and had a WC spot a week ago, but after getting their arses handed to them 4 out of 5 games at home the Brewers may have just forced them to be sellers.

Win the division on their field last year, demoralize them into giving up this year.  Beautiful.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

The Classies were only 2 games back of the final WC spot going into tonight, and had a WC spot a week ago, but after getting their arses handed to them 4 out of 5 games at home the Brewers may have just forced them to be sellers.

Win the division on their field last year, demoralize them into giving up this year.  Beautiful.

Not sure that's a good thing haha. I was kind of hoping they didn't make the sensible decision to sell considering they were supposed to be rebuilding this year.

[LouisEly]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Not sure that's a good thing haha. I was kind of hoping they didn't make the sensible decision to sell considering they were supposed to be rebuilding this year.

The more teams selling, the more it's a buyer's market for MIL.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Winning 4 out of 5 on the road is excellent. Doing so against a divisional rival is even better. Having the series being part of a 11-game road trip adds another degree of difficulty. Compound that with being a part of a 18 games in 17 days stretch. Not burning out the bullpen while chalking up wins is even more impressive.

That’s quite the week so far on the road. Exorcise the pre-All Star Break demons in Pittsburgh, and it will be an epic trip.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I'm sure Henderson violated some bylaws of the Fraternal Order of the H & H Garage with the HBP & walk in the 6th with a 5 run lead. Most likely getting gassed in his first start in a while as that's very un-Henderson like. But very good work through five. Would've been nice to cruise w/o using the BP people we used but eh.

I propose a one-day scoring change: Chourio & not Contreras should be credited with the RBI in the 9th inning. That was ALL him. My goodness what a slide. That & the Bauers deke at 3B were so, so pretty.

I don't know what the deal is with the Contreras ABs. That swing decision & K on the 3-2 pitch was downright cartoonish. Maybe we see Sanchez strappin' it on one more time before the break.

Quietly (or maybe not so quietly), Cooper Pratt looking like he belongs. Almost AB to AB, really.

[liveforoctober]

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Quietly (or maybe not so quietly), Cooper Pratt looking like he belongs. Almost AB to AB, really.

A few things from this series stand out besides taking 4 of 5 against them. Pratt getting comfortable and Lara flashing his ability should give a lot of hope both this year and moving forward that the MKE brass made great calls on both. Time will tell, good starts.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The more teams selling, the more it's a buyer's market for MIL.

That's very true plus it's always fun to do this to a divisional opponent. We did the same to the Cubs in 2021 I think it was?

[willie key]

Huge series 

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The more teams selling, the more it's a buyer's market for MIL.

Plus it removes another team that will need SP.  The Cardinals needed SP and bullpen help.  Them selling helps the Brewers out more than them buying.  While I would love to see the Cardinals buy just to get a WC series and then eliminated would help the Brewers long term but I don't think they would have done something dumb and traded for someone like Skubal.  

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

He doesn’t play every day.      When did that start happening 

He doesn't. That's the point. He's being played appropriately and has been the entire time. He's a different hitter against RHP compared to LHP. Was never hitting the ball at a .900+ OPS caliber level. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

Plus it removes another team that will need SP.  The Cardinals needed SP and bullpen help.  Them selling helps the Brewers out more than them buying.  While I would love to see the Cardinals buy just to get a WC series and then eliminated would help the Brewers long term but I don't think they would have done something dumb and traded for someone like Skubal.  

I was definitely thinking more longterm than just this year but yeah them selling this year is definitely a good thing for the Brewers this year. I just think they have some really good young players and don't want them to insulate that young core even more by selling at the deadline.

[folly412]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Can we please keep the Mitchell-Chourio-Turang top of the order please? Don't think you're going to get a better combo than that for this team. Those are the guys you want getting as many ABs as possible (in addition to Bauers). 

No more Yeli leading off....

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Can we please keep the Mitchell-Chourio-Turang top of the order please? Don't think you're going to get a better combo than that for this team. Those are the guys you want getting as many ABs as possible (in addition to Bauers). 

No more Yeli leading off....

McCalvy wrote an article today talking about Yelich and you're not going to get your wish. Murphy said he isn't going to move Yelich down in the order

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Interesting that he’s going with you Uribe  instead of Megill who has not pitched since Monday.

It's because Uribe was already up, so you might as well bring him in.

[willie key]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He doesn't. That's the point. He's being played appropriately and has been the entire time. He's a different hitter against RHP compared to LHP. Was never hitting the ball at a .900+ OPS caliber level. 

 Vaughn is better against right handers than Yelich is.    Good lord

now I’m ok if the brewers might not want to play him all the time because they still don’t know if his hand can take it.   Does makes sense to rest EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE against righties

But he’s still a better hitter than most of the players on the team 

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

The last time I looked at projections they had them with about the same record as the Brewers the rest of the way. The projections seem to recognize that the Brewers offense is more middle of the pack than elite.

2023 Brewers
4.49 R/G | 4.24 BaseRuns
93 wRC+ | .309 wOBA

2024 Brewers
4.80 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns
105 wRC+ | .319 wOBA

2025 Brewers
4.98 R/G | 4.77 BaseRuns
107 wRC+ | .322 wOBA

2026 Brewers
5.11 R/G | 4.84 BaseRuns
104 wRC+ | .324 wOBA (season)
109 wRC+ | .332 wOBA (since May 4th)

FanGraphs Depth Charts is projecting them to score 4.57 runs per game rest of season. I would say that is more a case of them being slow to recognize this is the Brewers 3rd straight year of pretty big improvements over 2023 than it is confirmation they have a middle of the pack offense. Especially considering these are the same projections that have sold the Brewers short by 87 wins over the last nine full seasons (& are on pace for another double digit underage this year).

Since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers have scored 4.94 R/G (4th) with a 105 wRC+ (7th) over 417 games, I would say that is a better representation of their elusive "true talent level" as an offense than the projections with a proven history of underselling the Brewers to a large extent.

Projections are also context neutral so they aren't giving the Brewers any credit for their 4,486 PA with RISP being the most in MLB since Murphy took over with a 117 wRC+ (3rd) that has produced 1,600 runs (1st) and a +184.71 RE24 (3rd) over that stretch.

Turang has a 124 wRC+ over his last 1,056 PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season. 
Vaughn has a 145 wRC+ over 417 PA with MIL, FGDC has him at 107 rest of season.
Bauers has a 144 wRC+ over his last 382 PA, FGDC has him at 115 rest of season.
Chourio has a 128 wRC+ over his last 564 PA, FGDC has him at 116 rest of season.
Mitchell has a 120 wRC+ over 732 career PA, FGDC has him at 106 rest of season.

I'm not saying none of these guys will regress, but the penalties seem especially harsh (to me anyway) considering Chourio should still be improving as a 22yo, Turang's demonstrated improvements since debuting, plus Mitchell and Vaughn still being in what has typically been considered the prime window at 27/28yo.

[liveforoctober]

30 minutes ago, willie key said:

 Vaughn is better against right handers than Yelich is.    Good lord

now I’m ok if the brewers might not want to play him all the time because they still don’t know if his hand can take it.   Does makes sense to rest EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE against righties

But he’s still a better hitter than most of the players on the team 

I know you all hate stats but you can't just keep saying this without any proof.

Brewers Batting Vs Right-Handed Pitching In 2026

After today, Vaughn's OPS against RHP dropped below Hamilton's. Out of 14 guys on the team with at least 50 PA against righties this year Vaughn is 12th ahead of just Joey Ortiz and Luis Rengifo.

His mashing against LHP is skewing your view of him.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

It's because Uribe was already up, so you might as well bring him in.

I assume you mean Uribe was already up because he was warming for the 8th because Ashby got into some trouble?

[willie key]

9 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

I know you all hate stats but you can't just keep saying this without any proof.

Brewers Batting Vs Right-Handed Pitching In 2026

After today, Vaughn's OPS against RHP dropped below Hamilton's. Out of 14 guys on the team with at least 50 PA against righties this year Vaughn is 12th ahead of just Joey Ortiz and Luis Rengifo.

His mashing against LHP is skewing your view of him.

He’s got a better ops against righties than Yelich and frelick who are freaking left handed hitters and where all this argument started 

unless baseball reference is way off.  I don’t think those numbers are right 

[liveforoctober]

3 minutes ago, willie key said:

He’s got a better ops against righties than Yelich and frelick who are freaking left handed hitters and where all this argument started 

After today he doesn't, but freaking go on.

[willie key]

Just now, liveforoctober said:

After today he doesn't, but freaking go on.

In baseball reference he’s got a .272 ba with a .718 ops.    That probably doesn’t include today but that’s 4 at bats.   Unless somehow those numbers aren’t right.   There is a major disconnect here.    He’s better than Yelich and frelick who are freaking left handed hitters

 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, willie key said:

In baseball reference he’s got a .272 ba with a .718 ops.    That probably doesn’t include today but that’s 4 at bats.   Unless somehow those numbers aren’t right.   There is a major disconnect here.    He’s better than Yelich and frelick who are freaking left handed hitters

By my math Vaughn after tonight has a .664 OPS against RHP. Frelick by my math after toinght has a .681 OPS against RHP. Yelich is at .707. So Vaughn no longer is better against RHP than them and @liveforoctober is correct.

[willie key]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

By my math Vaughn after tonight has a .664 OPS against RHP. Frelick by my math after toinght has a .681 OPS against RHP. Yelich is at .707. So Vaughn no longer is better against RHP than them and @liveforoctober is correct.

So you’re telling me all of this nonsense about Vaughn can’t hit righties and he was ahead of those guys anyways before tonight.  Cripes sakes.   So four at bats drops him 50-60 points.    Yeah he isn’t playing enough.     
 

 

 

[liveforoctober]

1 minute ago, willie key said:

In baseball reference he’s got a .272 ba with a .718 ops.    That probably doesn’t include today but that’s 4 at bats.   Unless somehow those numbers aren’t right.   There is a major disconnect here.    He’s better than Yelich and frelick who are freaking left handed hitters

 

It's more a curiosity to me than anything why the IGT grumps protect Vaughn but ridicule EVERYONE else. Sanchez swings at a ball out of the zone "undisciplined". Turang goes 0-4 "only cares about launch angle". Ashby grooves a fastball "we can't trust him in October". Mitchell strikes out "will forever have a hole in his swing".

Vaughn goes 4-23 to start July with 1 xbh and no RBI (against mainly rhp!) and leaves 8000 men on base.... "must be hard for him to get in a groove" "bad luck at bats" "everyone goes through these spells" "free Vaughn!"

I like the guy too... but y'all are funny.