Mets (Scott) vs Brewers (Henderson): 7/22/26, 1:10pm

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

How much do you think Bauers will get?  I'd rather give Bauers 3/$36 or something like that than give Vaughn 1/$10 to be a part-time player.

I get $10M isn't much... but we're paying $10M for a 1/3 player who continues to show he is unplayable versus righties.

I'd rather pay Vaughn the 10 million for one season, compared to being on the hook for Bauers at 36 million for 3 seasons to be honest.  If he is at his peak this year, I don't want to pay for his downfall.  I simply don't trust this is the guy we would have for the next 3 years.  I'm enjoying his season, and we are fortunate to have him this season (contract year btw) but I'm fine with him leaving for that contract someplace else.

We won't need Bauers nearly as much next season if one of the young guys shows up, and in 2028, one of the youngsters will surely be up and playing 1B.

[willie key]

People complaining about negativity right after a. Bases loaded nobody out goose egg. In a one run game      Hahahahahahaha

 

all time classic. 

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Simba2020 said:

I would love to know how many homers have been hit over that shortened wall in right between the Brewers and opponents. I would swear we are deep in the hole in that regards.

Mets were owed one after Collins cheapie walkoff HR into it last year

[StearnsFTW]

26 minutes ago, willie key said:

 

 

Nvm

Pointless.

[willie key]

38 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'd rather pay Vaughn the 10 million for one season, compared to being on the hook for Bauers at 36 million for 3 seasons to be honest.  If he is at his peak this year, I don't want to pay for his downfall.  I simply don't trust this is the guy we would have for the next 3 years.  I'm enjoying his season, and we are fortunate to have him this season (contract year btw) but I'm fine with him leaving for that contract someplace else.

We won't need Bauers nearly as much next season if one of the young guys shows up, and in 2028, one of the youngsters will surely be up and playing 1B.

Vaughn is pissing me off right now 

[wallus]

2 hours ago, baseball101 said:

Oh I realize what the game threads are. A few of try to be reasonable and not constantly negative. 

The dopes get upset when they get called out for being dopes. Feel free to stick around 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Simba2020 said:

I would love to know how many homers have been hit over that shortened wall in right between the Brewers and opponents. I would swear we are deep in the hole in that regards.

It wasn't to RF, but when I think of blocked shots my first thought is Kareem, my second is Dikembe Mutombo, and 3rd is every LF wall that's rejected Jackson Chourio lately. I don't know if he had a chance to grab that one today, but the 'feel' for the wall, positioning & timing certainly isn't there yet. OTOH, I'm sure we've been spoiled after Cain, Broxton & Gomez.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

It wasn't to RF, but when I think of blocked shots my first thought is Kareem, my second is Dikembe Mutombo, and 3rd is every LF wall that's rejected Jackson Chourio lately. I don't know if he had a chance to grab that one today, but the 'feel' for the wall, positioning & timing certainly isn't there yet. OTOH, I'm sure we've been spoiled after Cain, Broxton & Gomez.

No chance to grab that one today. There's a pretty sizable gap like (8ft) between the fence and the wall behind the fence and that one hit the wall behind the fence. 

[willie key]

4 minutes ago, wallus said:

The dopes get upset when they get called out for being dopes. Feel free to stick around 

He will stick around.  It’s the bane of his existence 

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

No chance to grab that one today. There's a pretty sizable gap like (8ft) between the fence and the wall behind the fence and that one hit the wall behind the fence. 

OK. I just saw Chourio get rejected by the bottom of the padding again.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

OK. I just saw Chourio get rejected by the bottom of the padding again.

Yeah Chourio appears to still not know how to jump at the wall getting stuffed by it again today. 

[willie key]

Ortiz is crazy now.     It seems like he’s been  2-3 every game for a month now and he still isn’t hitting .240

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

Ortiz is crazy now.     It seems like he’s been  2-3 every game for a month now and he still isn’t hitting .240

Yeah, as you get deeper into the season and accumulate ABs it can be tough to raise your BA much. He was hitting .188 at the beginning of June so it's pretty remarkable that he's just below .240 less than 2 months later.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Maybe Joey O is just a 3B?

I'm half-joking, and I've seen others make the point before, but his best production has been with him in that role. Probably just a coincidence.

I think this was a well-managed game by Murph. Got the 5 from Henderson, went to the rested bullpen quick, and closed it out with a day off tomorrow.

[da swedish german]

5 hours ago, baseball101 said:

Nobody is taking rights away about posting. Not sure what you are saying. Because a few posts get called out for being negative isn’t a big issue. You can always block my differing views.

not directed at you...

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Maybe Joey O is just a 3B?

I'm half-joking, and I've seen others make the point before, but his best production has been with him in that role. Probably just a coincidence.

I think this was a well-managed game by Murph. Got the 5 from Henderson, went to the rested bullpen quick, and closed it out with a day off tomorrow.

My theory........

Pratt gets signed to long-term deal. Ortiz gets antsy & not sure of his future.

Pratt comes up, takes over SS. Ortiz, rather than getting buried, goes to 3B. Rengifo goes away, Hamilton goes on the IL. Defined job/role. Ortiz relaxes.

But he had the defined role last year & didn't hit, so maybe 3B DOES play a part.

Or, probably just a coincidence😁.

[sveumrules]

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it.

But for real though, I believe it was Tommy Lasorda who said something along the lines of every team wins 54 games and every team loses 54 games so it's really only a 54 game season.

The actual breaks almost surely aren't that clean - good teams have more "easy" wins, bad teams have more "automatic" losses, mediocre teams have more games that hang in the balance - but sticking with Tommy's math (& after seeing how he treated umpires & the Philly Phanatic I know I certainly don't want to get into an argument with Lasorda) the Brewers went 82 W - 26 L (.759 W%) during Murphy's first two completed seasons as manager in those meaningful swing games.

This year's model currently has 38 losses so they are are for sure losing at least another two dozen games (& if they don't I'll gladly be wrong). Their lead for the #2 seed is 4.5 Games, their lead in the Division is 7.0 Games.

Traded away Peralta (6.1 rWAR), plus Durbin & Collins (2.6 WAR each). Quintana's 131 veteran innings out the door (1.8 rWAR). Priester hurt for the year (3.6 rWAR). Zerpa bad then hurt before the season even really began (-0.7 rWAR). Mess of 40 innings for Woodford, Kuhnel, Koenig (-0.4 rWAR each). Less than zero contributions for Rengifo (-0.7 WAR), Perkins (-0.6 WAR), Jones (-0.5 WAR), and even Sal (-0.2 WAR).

That's 20.6 WAR in the red between losses from last season plus poor performances so far in this one (not to mention all the games Murphy has cost them batting Yelich leadoff, or playing Sal instead of Vaughn, or playing Vaughn instead of Lara, or playing Perkins at all, not to mention all the times he called upon the wrong reliever) and this team is still on a 100 plus win pace. 

Truly remarkable stuff.

[willie key]

Two questions observing some of these games

1.  Megill is my guy but has been getting lucky with some great defense lately or am I imagining things?   A blow up could be near

2.  Yelich running the base doesn’t look right at all     He’s lumbering around.  Is something bothering him.    If so he should take a break 

 

 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, willie key said:

Two questions observing some of these games

1.  Megill is my guy but has been getting lucky with some great defense lately or am I imagining things?   A blow up could be near

2.  Yelich running the base doesn’t look right at all     He’s lumbering around.  Is something bothering him.    If so he should take a break 

ONE) Since giving up 7 ER in his appearances on April 10th and April 14th, Megill has thrown 34 IP giving up only 5 ER for a 1.32 ERA that is the 6th lowest of 300 pitchers with at least 30 IP since April 16th.

Anytime someone is running an ERA that low for that long they are due for a blow up.

Scanning his game logs it looks like he has been trending towards that blow up even during this recent stretch of elite run prevention...

0416 to 0621
22 IP of 1.64 ERA | 1.41 xERA | 0.74 FIP

0622 to 0722
12 IP of 0.75 ERA | 3.83 xERA | 2.02 FIP

That higher xERA over his last dozen innings is probably a pretty good indicator that he has been getting luckier of late.

TWO) From 2013 to 2019 Yelich put up positive base running numbers every season en route to +30.5 BsR. In 2020 after shattering his knee cap he was at 0.0 BsR. From 2021 to 2025 Yelich was again positive on the bases every season to the tune of +19.1 BsR. So far this year he is at +0.5 BsR.

His sprint speed has declined from the 80th percentile in 2024 (28.5 feet per second) to the 48th percentile this year (27.3 feet per second) per StatCast.

He has been getting some breaks. Since returning for good from his back injury on May 17th Yelich has started 49 of 59 games. Would guess they will continue to give him occasional days off as he tries to regain his form. 

Arbitrary endpoint, sure, but going back to July 7th he's reached safely in 10 of 11 games played and is at 52 PA of 267/365/444 (125 wRC+) with an 11.5 BB% and 21.1 K% under the hood. From 2023 to 2025 he hit 279/366/460 (128 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 22.9 K% under the hood.

I know its anathema to suggest something even mildly positive about Yelich in the game threads (like his +1.27 Win Probability Added being 41st among 264 hitters with at least 200 PA this year) but maybe he is starting to feel a little better / more comfortable the farther out he gets from his injury?

 

[Stealofhome]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

 Yelich running the base doesn’t look right at all     He’s lumbering around.  Is something bothering him.    If so he should take a break 

 

 

His sprint speed has clearly been lower this year than any other year in the past, even when he was injured. Either he dropped off a cliff or consciously slowed down a step. He's gone from 70-80th percentile for the last 6 years to 48th percentile this year.

[homer]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it.

But for real though, I believe it was Tommy Lasorda who said something along the lines of every team wins 54 games and every team loses 54 games so it's really only a 54 game season.

The actual breaks almost surely aren't that clean - good teams have more "easy" wins, bad teams have more "automatic" losses, mediocre teams have more games that hang in the balance - but sticking with Tommy's math (& after seeing how he treated umpires & the Philly Phanatic I know I certainly don't want to get into an argument with Lasorda) the Brewers went 82 W - 26 L (.759 W%) during Murphy's first two completed seasons as manager in those meaningful swing games.

This year's model currently has 38 losses so they are are for sure losing at least another two dozen games (& if they don't I'll gladly be wrong). Their lead for the #2 seed is 4.5 Games, their lead in the Division is 7.0 Games.

Traded away Peralta (6.1 rWAR), plus Durbin & Collins (2.6 WAR each). Quintana's 131 veteran innings out the door (1.8 rWAR). Priester hurt for the year (3.6 rWAR). Zerpa bad then hurt before the season even really began (-0.7 rWAR). Mess of 40 innings for Woodford, Kuhnel, Koenig (-0.4 rWAR each). Less than zero contributions for Rengifo (-0.7 WAR), Perkins (-0.6 WAR), Jones (-0.5 WAR), and even Sal (-0.2 WAR).

That's 20.6 WAR in the red between losses from last season plus poor performances so far in this one (not to mention all the games Murphy has cost them batting Yelich leadoff, or playing Sal instead of Vaughn, or playing Vaughn instead of Lara, or playing Perkins at all, not to mention all the times he called upon the wrong reliever) and this team is still on a 100 plus win pace. 

Truly remarkable stuff.

 

But why male models?

[Samurai Bucky]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it.

There is one variable that is very difficult or impossible to model (especially for the grown men crowd).  I call it the Clubhouse Coefficient.

The Clubhouse Coefficient is made up of underlying values that make up a atmosphere.  This includes each player's approach, how they interact with each other, and certain goals.  I have heard many Brewers say in interviews that Murph wants them to be the "best version of themself."  There is so much in that statement.

Many on this board complain about someone like Sal Frelick and how he doesn't hit enough home runs.  Perhaps that isn't the best version of himself.  Does that mean that he shouldn't ascribe to hit more home runs?  No.  The goal is get the players to find out what they do and do it very, very well.  Perfect that portion of "themselves" and then add on additional items like hitting tanks.  Imagine how a shorter player would react hearing every day, "you need to hit more home runs" vs. "you hit the ball hard, your homers will come."  Or, "let's work on squaring up the ball better" vs. "hit more dongs, dork!"

There are so many things that we middle age dudes cannot understand.  Even those that have played at a high level can understand the concept of the Clubhouse Coefficient, but that mysterious value is different for every clubhouse and can change annually, or even during the year.  It appears that Anastasio, Arnold and Murphy have kept that number high.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

6 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

There is one variable that is very difficult or impossible to model (especially for the grown men crowd).  I call it the Clubhouse Coefficient.

The Clubhouse Coefficient is made up of underlying values that make up a atmosphere.  This includes each player's approach, how they interact with each other, and certain goals.  I have heard many Brewers say in interviews that Murph wants them to be the "best version of themself."  There is so much in that statement.

Many on this board complain about someone like Sal Frelick and how he doesn't hit enough home runs.  Perhaps that isn't the best version of himself.  Does that mean that he shouldn't ascribe to hit more home runs?  No.  The goal is get the players to find out what they do and do it very, very well.  Perfect that portion of "themselves" and then add on additional items like hitting tanks.  Imagine how a shorter player would react hearing every day, "you need to hit more home runs" vs. "you hit the ball hard, your homers will come."  Or, "let's work on squaring up the ball better" vs. "hit more dongs, dork!"

There are so many things that we middle age dudes cannot understand.  Even those that have played at a high level can understand the concept of the Clubhouse Coefficient, but that mysterious value is different for every clubhouse and can change annually, or even during the year.  It appears that Anastasio, Arnold and Murphy have kept that number high.

I will maintain, when this long stretch of excellent baseball is behind us (which hopefully won't happen for a long, long time), that the Brewers understood something about identity that a lot of stat people write off.

I can remember something similar with Carlos Gomez. The Twins basically tried to make him a slap hitter. When he came to Milwaukee, they let him be himself, and it shook something loose, including his best two years in the big leagues, getting the guy MVP votes. That stuff happens regularly, but it happens with the Brewers more.

 

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I will maintain, when this long stretch of excellent baseball is behind us (which hopefully won't happen for a long, long time), that the Brewers understood something about identity that a lot of stat people write off.

I can remember something similar with Carlos Gomez. The Twins basically tried to make him a slap hitter. When he came to Milwaukee, they let him be himself, and it shook something loose, including his best two years in the big leagues, getting the guy MVP votes. That stuff happens regularly, but it happens with the Brewers more.

I think this is very clear when it comes to pitchers. The Red Sox are an objectively good pitching development org with one of the best rotations in baseball this year. I think in some ways you could argue they are better at developing pitchers than the Brewers but they are a very one size fits all org and guys like Harrison and Priester didn't mesh well with them. They come to Milwaukee and they have both talked about the Brewers just letting them be themselves and they really took off.

[Joseph Zarr]

11 hours ago, sveumrules said:

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it.