"We're definitely active"

[owbc]

32 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Our World Series odds are like 9% right now. If we swap Henderson for Skubal, how much do you really think that goes up? To 12%?

Our consistent success over the years is because we haven’t chased these type of marginal improvement.

Now I could see us giving it a shot for once since we are getting a bit deep between MLB and MiLB…but I’m pretty sure it won’t come at the expense of a potential huge impact player like Henderson. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense to go big on a rental by giving up a big MLB piece. That’s just a terrible gamble.
 

Reminds me when people thought we should trade Prince Fielder to get an ace pitcher. Addition by subtraction is just a bad route to take.

18% to win the NLCS vs. 39% for the Dodgers on Fangraphs. 

Same date in recent years:
2025: 12%
2024: 9%
2023: 6%
2022: 8%
2021: 18%

So I think there is a strong argument to boost ourselves up to ~25% odds with a strong deadline given the statistics suggest we're already much more likely to win the pennant than most recent seasons. 

[liveforoctober]

The argument is there that the biggest "acquisition" the Brewers could make that would help beat LA is earning the #1 seed. Home field is what won us the Cubs series last year. So you can approach the trade deadline in a few ways I guess. 1) Who can we acquire that will help us beat LA specifically? or 2) Who can we acquire that will help us maintain through the remaining season and get us to 97+ wins and home field throughout? 

That person(s) could be the same person for both answers obviously. But if our goal here is to get a Game 7 at home with Miz on the mound.. the first real goal of the trade deadline is to make sure we get to the end of September with a chance at the #1 seed. "Lighter" moves to balance the bench/bullpen, etc shouldn't be scoffed at this year more so than most. They could be just as important as the move for a big name.

I'm not at all saying a Bryse Wilson pick up is akin to a Joe Ryan pickup .. but if McCullers and Wilson can keep Ashby in the pen more often than not so his stuff looks like it did yesterday... that kind of marginal upgrade might just be the ticket.

 

[adambr2]

14 hours ago, Dadbauer said:

Yeah and last year I'd have hated to have lost Quinn Priester. Pitching is so fickle and one injury can derail an entire career. Tobias Meyers in 2023 looked like our ace of the future. Sell high if it makes sense. Drohan has been great for us but he was also kind of the throw in of the Caleb Durbin trade. 

Yeah, I agree with a lot of this. I think too often we see a young pitcher performing well for us and envision that it’s going to be that way for the next 6 years when in all likelihood it is not. Call it Tobias Myers or Eric Lauer syndrome. As you say, pitching is fickle and just because a pitcher is pitching like an ace right now doesn’t mean he is one. 

I love what Drohan has done for us this year, but who here honestly sees him being in our rotation in 2 years?

Always important to remember that we are trying to buy or sell players based on what we think they will do in the future, not necessarily what they’ve already done. 

I may agree or disagree on certain individual moves but in general if the organization trades a player, even for a rental, I’ll trust their judgment on it. 

[baseball101]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Yeah, I agree with a lot of this. I think too often we see a young pitcher performing well for us and envision that it’s going to be that way for the next 6 years when in all likelihood it is not. Call it Tobias Myers or Eric Lauer syndrome. As you say, pitching is fickle and just because a pitcher is pitching like an ace right now doesn’t mean he is one. 

I love what Drohan has done for us this year, but who here honestly sees him being in our rotation in 2 years?

Always important to remember that we are trying to buy or sell players based on what we think they will do in the future, not necessarily what they’ve already done. 

I may agree or disagree on certain individual moves but in general if the organization trades a player, even for a rental, I’ll trust their judgment on it. 

I actually like Drohan more than Gasser, Henderson, and Sproat. I would prefer hanging onto all our starters. Who in the minors is close to being a solid starter? 

[eklinka]

7 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I actually like Drohan more than Gasser, Henderson, and Sproat. I would prefer hanging onto all our starters. Who in the minors is close to being a solid starter? 

Tyson Hardin is probably the closest. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I actually like Drohan more than Gasser, Henderson, and Sproat. I would prefer hanging onto all our starters. Who in the minors is close to being a solid starter? 

Tyson Hardin is probably the last guy in the system (that hasn't already seen MLB) who could still help the rotation out yet this season.

Was named 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year in the system with 96 IP of 68 ERA- | 59 FIP- split between Wisconsin and Biloxi. Among 415 pitchers with at least 90 IP in the minors last year his 2.35 FIP was 3rd, his 5.65 K/BB ratio was 5th, and his 0.28 HR9 was 25th.

Since being promoted to Nashville this year he has 58 IP of 71 ERA- | 67 FIP-. Among 75 pitchers with at least 50 IP in the International League this year some of his ranks are...

3.20 FIP (1st) | 0.47 HR9 (2nd) | 3.44 K/BB (5th) | 1.07 WHIP (6th) | 3.41 ERA (10th) | 47.7 GB% (12th)

Believe the general scouting report is he is more of a sinker / strike thrower than a strike em out big stuff kind of guy, but either way has been one of the better performing pitchers in all of the minor leagues over the last two seasons after signing for $147K as 12th rounder in 2024.

For me personally, my expectations are somewhere around that Chad Patrick / Shane Drohan kind of range. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Yeah, I agree with a lot of this. I think too often we see a young pitcher performing well for us and envision that it’s going to be that way for the next 6 years when in all likelihood it is not. Call it Tobias Myers or Eric Lauer syndrome. As you say, pitching is fickle and just because a pitcher is pitching like an ace right now doesn’t mean he is one. 

I love what Drohan has done for us this year, but who here honestly sees him being in our rotation in 2 years?

Always important to remember that we are trying to buy or sell players based on what we think they will do in the future, not necessarily what they’ve already done. 

I may agree or disagree on certain individual moves but in general if the organization trades a player, even for a rental, I’ll trust their judgment on it. 

The underlying numbers definitely favor someone like Drohan over guys like Lauer and Myers. 

2021 Lauer - 94 FIP-, 100 xFIP-, 4.24 SIERA

2024 Myers - 96 FIP-, 98 xFIP-, 3.99 SIERA

2026 Drohan - 72 FIP-, 87 xFIP-, 3.66 SIERA (specifically as a SP - 84 FIP-, 94 xFIP-, 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Tyson Hardin is probably the last guy in the system (that hasn't already seen MLB) who could still help the rotation out yet this season.

Was named 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year in the system with 96 IP of 68 ERA- | 59 FIP- split between Wisconsin and Biloxi. Among 415 pitchers with at least 90 IP in the minors last year his 2.35 FIP was 3rd, his 5.65 K/BB ratio was 5th, and his 0.28 HR9 was 25th.

Since being promoted to Nashville this year he has 58 IP of 71 ERA- | 67 FIP-. Among 75 pitchers with at least 50 IP in the International League this year some of his ranks are...

3.20 FIP (1st) | 0.47 HR9 (2nd) | 3.44 K/BB (5th) | 1.07 WHIP (6th) | 3.41 ERA (10th) | 47.7 GB% (12th)

Believe the general scouting report is he is more of a sinker / strike thrower than a strike em out big stuff kind of guy, but either way has been one of the better performing pitchers in all of the minor leagues over the last two seasons after signing for $147K as 12th rounder in 2024.

For me personally, my expectations are somewhere around that Chad Patrick / Shane Drohan kind of range. 

Hardin is definitely not a sinker baller. He does throw three fastball types but the sinker is the worst of his three fastballs. He's best known for his flat approach angle FB. I'd comp him to more like a poor man's Bryan Woo or Joe Ryan.

[adambr2]

23 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I actually like Drohan more than Gasser, Henderson, and Sproat. I would prefer hanging onto all our starters. Who in the minors is close to being a solid starter? 

Maybe Hardin. He’d probably be the next man up of the guys that haven’t gotten a shot yet. 

[adambr2]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The underlying numbers definitely favor someone like Drohan over guys like Lauer and Myers. 

2021 Lauer - 94 FIP-, 100 xFIP-, 4.24 SIERA

2024 Myers - 96 FIP-, 98 xFIP-, 3.99 SIERA

2026 Drohan - 72 FIP-, 87 xFIP-, 3.66 SIERA (specifically as a SP - 84 FIP-, 94 xFIP-, 

It’s encouraging. I wasn’t really trying to directly compare Drohan to Myers or Lauer, more just stating that he wouldn’t be the first to have really nice short term run in the rotation only to not really have any long-term staying power. 

You could throw Priester in there too. I’m unsure what to expect from him next year, if anything. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

I love what Drohan has done for us this year, but who here honestly sees him being in our rotation in 2 years?

 

If he continues to progress, I absolutely can see him being in our rotation in 2 years...

I'd rank him above Sproat, Gasser and Crow for sure!

Miz, Harrison, Henderson, Drohan and Hardin in 2028 is not out of the question...  That still leaves Letson as a possibility in 2028 as well.

I'd be willing to trade Gasser, Sproat, and Crow, but I'm hanging on tightly to Henderson and Drohan, and I would be pretty disappointed if we move Hardin.

[LouisEly]

When I look at the depth of the system, I see a lack of SP prospects.

The top pitching prospect on MLB.com's ranking isn't until #9, and only 3 pitchers on the list above A-ball.  Some pitchers lower on the list, but lots of projection on HS arms there that may or may not develop (much less out for two years when they have TJ).

Given the lack of pitching prospects in the upper levels, I don't know if the Brewers should move any young, controllable major-league arms for a rental.  

[baseball101]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

When I look at the depth of the system, I see a lack of SP prospects.

The top pitching prospect on MLB.com's ranking isn't until #9, and only 3 pitchers on the list above A-ball.  Some pitchers lower on the list, but lots of projection on HS arms there that may or may not develop (much less out for two years when they have TJ).

Given the lack of pitching prospects in the upper levels, I don't know if the Brewers should move any young, controllable major-league arms for a rental.  

Yup, completely agree. A lot of posters talk about our pitching depth, trade a controllable starter for a rental starter reduces depth. If we had arms waiting in AA and AAA I would be ok with it. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, baseball101 said:

Yup, completely agree. A lot of posters talk about our pitching depth, trade a controllable starter for a rental starter reduces depth. If we had arms waiting in AA and AAA I would be ok with it. 

Bet we’ve already got guys in other systems that aren’t even on our radar right now that our scouts like that will get turned into 2’s and 3’s next year after we acquire them in the offseason for Frelick or Ortiz or a prospect or something. They do it every year. 

[MrTPlush]

8 hours ago, owbc said:

18% to win the NLCS vs. 39% for the Dodgers on Fangraphs. 

Same date in recent years:
2025: 12%
2024: 9%
2023: 6%
2022: 8%
2021: 18%

So I think there is a strong argument to boost ourselves up to ~25% odds with a strong deadline given the statistics suggest we're already much more likely to win the pennant than most recent seasons. 

I’m definitely not anti-make a big splash.

But I’m definitely trading prospects…and maybe a lesser young starter if need be.

[baseball101]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Bet we’ve already got guys in other systems that aren’t even on our radar right now that our scouts like that will get turned into 2’s and 3’s next year after we acquire them in the offseason for Frelick or Ortiz or a prospect or something. They do it every year. 

I’m thinking sarcasm? 

[baseball101]

Our position depth is insane. Chourio, Made, Pena, Josh Adam, Josiah, Knoth, Frias, Moneys are basically my untouchable players.

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

I’m thinking sarcasm? 

I don't think that's sarcasm at all. The Brewers seem to be very good at acquiring post-hype guys or late bloomers and turning them into valuable big league arms.

2026 - Harrison, Drohan

2025 - Priester, Patrick

[39Streak]

Of the six young guys who have taken the ball, this is how I value them:

1.  Drohan.  May have been the throw in for the Durbin deal.  I don’t know anything about him but what I have seen.  I love his poise.  Unflappable.

2.  Gasser.  Through TJ surgery.  He has looked really sharp of late except  in that PIT game when Miz scratched.

3.  Sproat.  Inconsistent but the highest ceiling by far.  You can see his stuff.

4.  Henderson.  Injuries.  Otherwise probably #1.  

5.  Crow.  Easy guy to let go for me.  But should be a quality #5 starter for someone else.

6.  Rodriguez.  Easier to let go.

I would hesitate to trade 1–3.  Open on 4 for the right deal for Henderson, fine.  Final two, open for business.

[adambr2]

12 hours ago, 39Streak said:

Of the six young guys who have taken the ball, this is how I value them:

1.  Drohan.  May have been the throw in for the Durbin deal.  I don’t know anything about him but what I have seen.  I love his poise.  Unflappable.

2.  Gasser.  Through TJ surgery.  He has looked really sharp of late except  in that PIT game when Miz scratched.

3.  Sproat.  Inconsistent but the highest ceiling by far.  You can see his stuff.

4.  Henderson.  Injuries.  Otherwise probably #1.  

5.  Crow.  Easy guy to let go for me.  But should be a quality #5 starter for someone else.

6.  Rodriguez.  Easier to let go.

I would hesitate to trade 1–3.  Open on 4 for the right deal for Henderson, fine.  Final two, open for business.

No way am I valuing Gasser and Sproat over Henderson. I’d have a much easier time seeing either one of them go. 

But, that’s why we have these boards and discussions!

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

No way am I valuing Gasser and Sproat over Henderson. I’d have a much easier time seeing either one of them go. 

But, that’s why we have these boards and discussions!

Agreed!  I was coming around a bit on Sproat after his rough start, but he seems to have re-entered the funk.

Henderson has had injuries, but I think Henderson’s worst game has been better than Sproat’s best.  When they are healthy, Henderson is the much better pitcher.

If Sproat was 3.50 and durable versus a 3.00 Henderson, this could be a debate, but Sproat has been below replacement level thus far in his career.

for Free, let’s see what he can do

Gasser has been much better than Sproat’s lately, but obviously doesn’t have the same pedigree for ability