Assessing the offense

[cragi]

one thing that frustrates me about the offense is the lack of consistency in the fulltime starters. Obviously, slumps are part of baseball, but the depth should mean that everyone is playing fresh.

Yelich/Contrera/Turang started the season on fire, but have since been fairly mediocre at the plate.  Chourio came back from injury strong and also cooled off.

And yet, we dont see any real breaks for the starters, assuming that playing every day is going to be best for breaking the prolonged slumps.

Seems it could be good to handle the slumps by giving them time to reset, and then you give more opportunities for some of the quality depth. Am I off or what do others think? 

[BruisedCrew]

4 minutes ago, cragi said:

one thing that frustrates me about the offense is the lack of consistency in the fulltime starters. Obviously, slumps are part of baseball, but the depth should mean that everyone is playing fresh.

Yelich/Contrera/Turang started the season on fire, but have since been fairly mediocre at the plate.  Chourio came back from injury strong and also cooled off.

And yet, we dont see any real breaks for the starters, assuming that playing every day is going to be best for breaking the prolonged slumps.

Seems it could be good to handle the slumps by giving them time to reset, and then you give more opportunities for some of the quality depth. Am I off or what do others think? 

Maybe the biggest source of complaints on this board is that some of these regulars are given TOO MANY days off. They want to see the manager determine the best lineup and play that lineup almost every day.

I don’t think more than an occasional day off (including days for the team) is going to help the players reset. They just came off of the 4 day All Star break and most of the slumping players have kept on slumping. 

[liveforoctober]

15 minutes ago, igor67 said:

My bigger concern with the entire process here is that the OP thought process only seems to acknowledge probability going 1 way. Which is to say he cited the Brewers as underdogs, which I'm fine with but the words imply that it will take a fluke. Yet the odds are almost certainly close to 60-40 which isn't a big split. And importantly if we some how acquired Scwarber for Yelich at DH and the prefered Brooks Lee at 3rd. At best the odds would tilt 60-40 towards us.

The record of actual World Series winners the last 25 years is filled with a wide variety of teams with different levels of offense and pitching with different records going into the post season. There is no team of destiny, heck we could get past the Dodgers this year and still have to deal with a frustrating loss to an inferior team from the AL in the World Series. Baseball is just more random in that regard then football.

I think OP assumes that the optimists don't see the imperfections. We all see the same thing. The difference here is the same in any hierarchy whether it is business or family structure or a sports related fan message board or whatever ...

Do you focus on and announce the bad while quietly understanding the good or do you focus on and announce the good while quietly understanding the bad.

OP says "we don't have enough power". Responders say "we score a lot of runs". I assume OP knows we score runs. I assume also responders know we don't slug the stuffing out of the ball.

Just a difference in perspectives. No one is right or wrong and we will always clash as we interrupt the other side's way of enjoying the game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 hours ago, Turning2 said:

I'm not condescending anyone by my understanding of that term. If others interpret it that way, that is beyond my control. That is not my intent. The pushback, I suspect, is driven from a version of cognitive dissonance - essentially - being confronted with what a person doesn't want to have to acknowledge as true. The polite term is "whistling past the graveyard". 

So, the obvious thing I must question is .... what stats support ... "but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story". Do you recognize the irony? Most fans seem to be content relying on stats / metrics to tell the story... until the story can't be supported by stats / metrics. We can't claim "numbers" if we can't support with "numbers". That's why I don't claim "numbers" generally speaking.

Stats / metrics / measurements are an indicative tool, but they should never be wholly relied upon as many are want to do. 

LOL... all I'm saying is .... they need more consistent offense, one that instills fans with confidence in the clutch / high pressure scenarios. Winning a ton of games, scoring a ton of runs, flattering stat rankings mean NOTHING if they can't do it when it counts the most. That shouldn't be an unpopular, contentious opinion. 

 

Thank you for the well thought-out response. I actually agree with much of what you are saying here in theory, but it is difficult to put into practice, given the financial parameters the Brewers are forced to operate under. 

As for doing it when it counts the most, this current iteration of the team hasn't had that opportunity yet. It would certainly be nice to have more proven "clutch performer" types in this lineup, those guys aren't exactly readily available often, and when they do, they demand a premium. The Brewers, instead, need to hope (or maybe even pray) that the Pratts, Laras, and even the Vaughns and Bauers of the world have a little clutch in them.

[Playing Catch]

13 hours ago, Turning2 said:

Pick one... easy....  #13 Brooks Lee..

Modest power, hitting for average, blossoming, controllable. We can't speculate on MN's mindset regarding buyer / seller and what they might seek to trade an emerging team leader. But they are not close to being WS competitive. They are rebuilding. They cannot, will not ask for the moon on him.

I like a lot of the things you like about Lee. He's not arby-eligible until '28. He's got that 8th pick overall "prospect pedigree" (that's for Jopal). He's good enough defensively to be considered a shortstop. He has a style of hitting that I like (contact-oriented rather than BB-oriented, modest power as you mention). I wish he were better against lefties.

If you acquire him, though, you are basically saying to the Fischers and Mades of the world that they'll need to wait their turn, which is fine if you believe more in Lee than those guys. In addition, you say that "we can't speculate on..." MN mindset/return/etc., but you go on to speculate that they aren't close to being competitive, and they won't ask for much. Personally, I think that's a wild speculation because Lee is EXACTLY the kind of player the Twins should want to hang onto for the foreseeable future.

[cragi]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe the biggest source of complaints on this board is that some of these regulars are given TOO MANY days off.

I dont recall anyone saying that Yelich, Contreras, Turang, and Chourio were having too many days off. I think there is an issue where Vaughn also came out of the gate hot and then got the weak side of the platoon and started to tail off, whereas last year he maintained a consistant approach.

[Playing Catch]

Just now, cragi said:

I dont recall anyone saying that Yelich, Contreras, Turang, and Chourio were having too many days off. I think there is an issue where Vaughn also came out of the gate hot and then got the weak side of the platoon and started to tail off, whereas last year he maintained a consistant approach.

I think it's hard to characterize any consensus opinion on these boards as the most active daily threads are the IGTs, where opinions regarding lineup composition are quite pointed, whereas some of the more "longitudinal" opinions don't often show up in the IGTs, in part because there is a lot of evidence to support the idea that lineup composition doesn't impact the game as much as we think it does.

I, personally, think that lineup composition CAN have a big impact, but that it is heavily dependent on where the other team is at with their pitching that day.

[RWeeksFan23]

2 hours ago, cragi said:

one thing that frustrates me about the offense is the lack of consistency in the fulltime starters. Obviously, slumps are part of baseball, but the depth should mean that everyone is playing fresh.

Yelich/Contrera/Turang started the season on fire, but have since been fairly mediocre at the plate.  Chourio came back from injury strong and also cooled off.

And yet, we dont see any real breaks for the starters, assuming that playing every day is going to be best for breaking the prolonged slumps.

Seems it could be good to handle the slumps by giving them time to reset, and then you give more opportunities for some of the quality depth. Am I off or what do others think? 

I agree.

Murphy rides his guys too hard. Contreras being one of them. Catchers shouldn't start virtually every game, which Contreras mostly does. 

Last year (or was it the year before?) where he started like 3497593763 consecutive games was absurd.

[Turning2]

6 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I like a lot of the things you like about Lee. He's not arby-eligible until '28. He's got that 8th pick overall "prospect pedigree" (that's for Jopal). He's good enough defensively to be considered a shortstop. He has a style of hitting that I like (contact-oriented rather than BB-oriented, modest power as you mention). I wish he were better against lefties.

If you acquire him, though, you are basically saying to the Fischers and Mades of the world that they'll need to wait their turn, which is fine if you believe more in Lee than those guys. In addition, you say that "we can't speculate on..." MN mindset/return/etc., but you go on to speculate that they aren't close to being competitive, and they won't ask for much. Personally, I think that's a wild speculation because Lee is EXACTLY the kind of player the Twins should want to hang onto for the foreseeable future.

Not likely that they would move him, especially now. My thought was that with the control, he would be a perfect bridge until Made / Fischer arrive.  I don't expect them until 2028, or possibly late next year if there is a season. The timing would have worked out pretty well I think. 

I meant I can't speculate on what the Twins would have asked for in return. Sounds like they have a decent farm system too. They would surely want value, but I meant to imply that it wouldn't be much compared to bigger trade targets like Abrams. 

It's all moot now with them buying instead of selling. 

[sveumrules]

Here is how I would personally assess the Top Dozen offenses in MLB so far (all stats thru July 30th)...

TOP TIER (3)

DODGERS
5.16 R/G (3rd) | 113 wRC+ (1st)
+5.75 WPA (1st) | +81.92 RE24 (2nd)

CUBS
5.17 R/G (2nd) | 111 wRC+ (3rd)
+5.07 WPA (3rd) | +77.76 RE24 (3rd)

NATIONALS
5.45 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd)
+4.16 WPA (3rd) | +89.34 RE24 (1st)

[pretty straight forward here. These three offenses occupy the top three spots in each of the four most telling context neutral and context dependent macro measures of performance]

NOT QUITE TOP TIER (2)

BREWERS
5.06 R/G (5th) | 105 wRC+ (6th)
+4.04 WPA (4th) | +54.16 RE24 (4th)

PIRATES
5.14 R/G (4th) | 107 wRC+ (4th)
-1.57 WPA (15th) | +44.82 RE24 (5th)

[the only other teams over five runs per game. Brewers have a big edge in WPA due to being better with RISP (114 vs 107 wRC+), in high leverage (94 vs 86 wRC+), and medium leverage (111 vs 107 wRC+) while the Pirates have done more damage with bases empty (107 vs 96 wRC+) and in low leverage (112 vs 102 wRC+). Also can't extricate the offense from the defense and the Pirates 3.89 FIP has yielded 4.81 actual runs allowed per game compared to the Brewers 3.59 FIP yielding 3.83 actual runs allowed per game]

NEXT SEVEN (7)

BRAVES
4.87 R/G (6th) | 99 wRC+ (18th)
+2.03 WPA (6th) | +36.39 RE24 (6th)

WHITE SOX
4.78 R/G (7th) | 102 wRC+ (12th)
+1.49 WPA (8th) | +24.94 RE24 (7th)

TWINS
4.71 R/G (9th) | 103 wRC+ (11th)
+1.36 WPA (9th) | +24.19 RE24 (8th)

YANKEES
4.64 R/G (10th) | 103 wRC+ (9th)
+2.24 WPA (5th) | +19.27 RE24 (9th)

ORIOLES
4.60 R/G (11th) | 103 wRC+ (10th)
+0.99 WPA (10th) | +7.09 RE24 (11th)

ASTROS
4.59 R/G (12th) | 104 wRC+ (8th)
+1.72 WPA (7th) | +8.36 RE24 (10th)

RAYS
4.45 R/G (14th) | 105 wRC+ (5th)
-0.22 WPA (11th) | -6.15 RE24 (13th)

[pretty clear separation in performance between this group of teams and the Brewers / Pirates in the tier above. This is the tier (or worse) that the Brewers used to be in for many years until recently. For 2018 thru 2021 before the universal DH the wRC+, WPA, and RE24 results and rankings are for position players only so as not to be dragged down by pitchers hitting for comparison purposes...]

2018 BREWERS
4.63 R/G (12th) | 105 wRC+ (10th)
+10.85 WPA (2nd) | +81.65 RE24 (10th)

2019 BREWERS
4.75 R/G (17th) | 102 wRC+ (12th)
+5.47 WPA (11th) | +44.85 RE24 (15th)

2021 BREWERS
4.56 R/G (12th) | 98 wRC+ (19th)
+1.48 WPA (14th) | +56.74 RE24 (12th)

2022 BREWERS
4.48 R/G (10th) | 104 wRC+ (11th)
+1.11 WPA (10th) | +4.96 RE24 (15th)

2023 BREWERS
4.49 R/G (17th) | 93 wRC+ (21st)
-5.09 WPA (21st) | -32.96 RE24 (19th)

2024 BREWERS
4.80 R/G (6th) | 105 wRC+ (11th)
+0.33 WPA (10th) | +49.10 RE24 (8th)

2025 BREWERS
4.98 R/G (3rd) | 107 wRC+ (9th)
+4.74 WPA (4th) | +88.84 RE24 (3rd)

2026 BREWERS
5.06 R/G (5th) | 105 wRC+ (6th)
+4.04 WPA (4th) | +54.16 RE24 (4th)

2018-23 BREWERS
4.55 R/G (15th) | 100 wRC+ (16th)
+9.52 WPA (9th) | +121.15 RE24 (14th)

2024-26 BREWERS
4.93 R/G (4th) | 105 wRC+ (7th)
+9.11 WPA (4th) | +192.09 RE24 (4th)

[ultimately hard for me to be too upset about only having something like the fourth best offense this year (& for the last three seasons now) especially when it represents such measurable progress over the 2018-23 versions, and when it looks like continued growth is still possible between the young players already in MLB plus the bevy of prospects imminent over the next couple years (& beyond).

the Dodgers first postseason appearance of their current run was in 2013. It took them eleven tries until 2024 to win their first World Series after a full season, and they only needed a generational superstar on a barely legal contract to finally get it done. The Yankees have only been to one World Series (& lost) in the fifteen full seasons since their last WS win in 2009. These things take time, even for the most advantaged franchises in the sport. This is the eighth year of the Brewers current run, for as long as its been going on already it's still only just getting started]

 

[Ewitkows1]

Slightly off topic but is the AA team better than the MLB team on offense? Outside of 2nd and RF , they might be. 

[igor67]

As much as I like Burke, Adams, and Fischer I don't know that right away they would be able to outhit what Bauers is doing this year. I don't expect Bauers to ever hit quite this well again in fairness. Made would also be challenged to out produce what Pratt has done so far in MLB. A few years down the line though is a different prediction at those positions, but still a prediction.

[liveforoctober]

44 minutes ago, Ewitkows1 said:

Slightly off topic but is the AA team better than the MLB team on offense? Outside of 2nd and RF , they might be. 

Could Ohio State beat the Browns?

[Ewitkows1]

In most years I do think OSU could beat the Browns. I think made could match or exceed what Pratt is doing today. I think Made has more pop but Pratt will hit a higher average. I think Fisher as the DH could give us more than Yelich at the moment.