Dodgers get Skubal

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I'm not sure why people don't believe McCalvy. He didn't just pull those names out of a hat. It's not like he just said they gave up prospect number X, Y, and Z. In terms of actual prospect similarities what he put out feels pretty comparable. An MLB ready SP, a top 25/50 position player, and a 21 year old SP prospect whose timeline is still a couple years away. It wouldn't at all surprise me if that was what the Tigers were asking for.

Exactly.  I think there's a lot of endowment effect going on here.

People seem to forget that while Henderson is younger, he has quite the injury history.  His value has to be discounted for that.  If you want, substitute Brandon Sproat who is about to turn 26.  But Henderson and Sproat are the closest to River Ryan in terms of stuff and major league readiness whether people like it or not.  And River Ryan made the majors at age 25 despite being drafted at age 22, then he got hurt.  It's not like it took him until age 28 to knock on the major league door.  

Pena is still in high-A.  He hasn't proven that he can make the jump to AA yet, and he has some health concerns as well.  Those have to discount his value.  Meanwhile, Hope has a .899 OPS in AA.

Pull out any A-ball SP comp you want.   Smith is averaging 13.7 K/9 to only 3.6 BB/9 this year, mostly at low-A.  I'm struggling to find a Brewers SP prospect who at 21 years old averaged >11 K/9 and less than 4 BB/9 in any meaningful sample of innings.  Smith was a 3rd round pick who got $700K.

It's a much better comp than people think.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I think the Dodgers acquiring Skubal shows you the advantage of their scouting and coaching machine. 
 

In 2024 Michael Busch was blocked with the Dodgers so they shipped to the Cubs for Zyhir Hope who was 19 years in A ball at the time. 
 

The Padres wanted Matt Beaty as a left handed utility player and traded River Ryan to the Dodgers who was a hitter and 11th round pick at the time. The Padres dropped Beaty after one year

The Dodgers  coached both Hope and Ryan into big time prospects then cashed them in for Skubal along with only one player that was their own draft pick. 
 

The Brewers are likely trying to build their own system like that which is why it’s unlikely they trade any of their routes minor leaguers
 

 

It's a lot easier to do when you can stash them in the minors because you can buy better players for your major league roster. Chourio, Pratt, Henderson, Sproat, and Patrick would all probably still be in AAA if we could spend the kind of money the Dodgers have. 

[homer]

8 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I also wonder how much of it simply was Skubal wanting to go to LA and not wanting to go elsewhere. 

You want a conspiracy theory? How about Attanasio scuttling a Brewers deal to give owners in baseball more ammunition for their salary cap talking points.

[adambr2]

20 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Exactly.  I think there's a lot of endowment effect going on here.

People seem to forget that while Henderson is younger, he has quite the injury history.  His value has to be discounted for that.  If you want, substitute Brandon Sproat who is about to turn 26.  But Henderson and Sproat are the closest to River Ryan in terms of stuff and major league readiness whether people like it or not.  And River Ryan made the majors at age 25 despite being drafted at age 22, then he got hurt.  It's not like it took him until age 28 to knock on the major league door.  

Pena is still in high-A.  He hasn't proven that he can make the jump to AA yet, and he has some health concerns as well.  Those have to discount his value.  Meanwhile, Hope has a .899 OPS in AA.

Pull out any A-ball SP comp you want.   Smith is averaging 13.7 K/9 to only 3.6 BB/9 this year, mostly at low-A.  I'm struggling to find a Brewers SP prospect who at 21 years old averaged >11 K/9 and less than 4 BB/9 in any meaningful sample of innings.  Smith was a 3rd round pick who got $700K.

It's a much better comp than people think.

I can get my head around Pena and Hope comparison. I think that’s fair. 

Henderson and Ryan I am having a much harder time with. Henderson is, currently, a big part of the Brewer rotation. Ryan is still a flyer with too small of an MLB sample size to put much stock into. He was expendable for the Dodgers. For us dealing Henderson just fills a hole in our rotation by creating another hole.

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, homer said:

You want a conspiracy theory? How about Attanasio scuttling a Brewers deal to give owners in baseball more ammunition for their salary cap talking points.

This sounds like a plot for the movie Major League 4. 

[rickh150]

5 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Skubal does not have a no-trade clause. Detroit would have zero reason to accept anything except the highest bid.

He could have been approached and asked where he’d prefer.  That’s not a reach.

My guess is that Detroit asked for teams best offers and used Dodgers as last team to top that offer. I’d do that since their well is deeper than all and could afford to give up their entire system.

Also, Detroit could be equally sick of the MLB system and decided to do this to push the narrative to change the system. 

[trwi7]

34 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

This sounds like a plot for the movie Major League 4. 

Major League 3: Back to the Minors

Major League 4: Back to the Negotiating Table

[GAME05]

2 hours ago, MoreTrife said:

Can you imagine how united the country would be in joy if the Dodgers somehow don't win the World series?? 

The Players Union will love it, too.

[GAME05]

So I guess this means Tyler Glasnow will probably be the odd man out come October and no longer good enough to make the postseason starting rotation. What a bum.

[adambr2]

Getting pretty deep with the conspiracy theories here. Isn’t it just as logical to assume that the Dodgers are going to throw the NLCS against us this time to defeat the narrative and ensure the status quo remains in collective bargaining?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Getting pretty deep with the conspiracy theories here. Isn’t it just as logical to assume that the Dodgers are going to throw the NLCS against us this time to defeat the narrative and ensure the status quo remains in collective bargaining?

LOL.  Maybe that explains the Bucks championship :P

[GAME05]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Getting pretty deep with the conspiracy theories here. Isn’t it just as logical to assume that the Dodgers are going to throw the NLCS against us this time to defeat the narrative and ensure the status quo remains in collective bargaining?

 I know which possibility Ohtani's translator will be rooting for.

But really it's all up to FanDuel to decide what will happen.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Exactly.  I think there's a lot of endowment effect going on here.

People seem to forget that while Henderson is younger, he has quite the injury history.  His value has to be discounted for that.  If you want, substitute Brandon Sproat who is about to turn 26.  But Henderson and Sproat are the closest to River Ryan in terms of stuff and major league readiness whether people like it or not.  And River Ryan made the majors at age 25 despite being drafted at age 22, then he got hurt.  It's not like it took him until age 28 to knock on the major league door.  

Pena is still in high-A.  He hasn't proven that he can make the jump to AA yet, and he has some health concerns as well.  Those have to discount his value.  Meanwhile, Hope has a .899 OPS in AA.

Pull out any A-ball SP comp you want.   Smith is averaging 13.7 K/9 to only 3.6 BB/9 this year, mostly at low-A.  I'm struggling to find a Brewers SP prospect who at 21 years old averaged >11 K/9 and less than 4 BB/9 in any meaningful sample of innings.  Smith was a 3rd round pick who got $700K.

It's a much better comp than people think.

If Henderson is discounted in any way due to his injury history, then both Dodger pitching prospects in this trade are total bums, too.  Ryan can't even stay healthy enough this season.

 

 

[trwi7]

35 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

 I know which possibility Ohtani's translator will be rooting for.

But really it's all up to FanDuel to decide what will happen.

You want conspiracy theories, I'm still not convinced Ohtani is innocent and that his translator just took the fall for him to save MLB from a scandal that would take years to come back from.

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

You want conspiracy theories, I'm still not convinced Ohtani is innocent and that his translator just took the fall for him to save MLB from a scandal that would take years to come back from.

That isnt a conspiracy theory in my opinion

[Samurai Bucky]

4 hours ago, BrewLongma34 said:

The brewers have been aggressive and there is a ton of smoke all over the place my man.   Zero confidence?   C’mon man.   We still have a whole nother day and soooo many good options still out there.   

I will be excited to be proven wrong.  👍

[markedman5]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Don't need a salary cap or floor nearly as much as baseball needs full revenue sharing.  I would bet the Dodgers bring in more revenue themselves that doesnt need to be shared than the bottom half of mlb combined

The big market teams won’t share all revenue without a cap so……..

[Opening Day]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

It's a lot easier to do when you can stash them in the minors because you can buy better players for your major league roster. Chourio, Pratt, Henderson, Sproat, and Patrick would all probably still be in AAA if we could spend the kind of money the Dodgers have. 

In addition to that, another big thing with the money difference is that the Dodgers can afford to miss.  Yelich is the Brewers' highest paid player and faltering.  To the Brewers thats a big deal, and that contract prevents them from other moves.    If it was the Dodgers, they would just go out and sign someone like Betts, Freeman, Ohtani, Tucker, etc, to replace him.  Tucker hasn't been great, but thats the point. They can just go get the next one when they miss.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

24 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

The big market teams won’t share all revenue without a cap so……..

Well, then it's win win....but there 100% HAS to be full revenue sharing 1st

[Samurai Bucky]

Remember:  50% of the luxury tax automatically goes to the players anyway.  
 

 

[ImissDougMelvin]

5 hours ago, BrewLongma34 said:

The brewers have been aggressive and there is a ton of smoke all over the place my man.   Zero confidence?   C’mon man.   We still have a whole nother day and soooo many good options still out there.   

So many good options? I'd say so many mediocre options. Don't see a single major needle mover left out there. Unless they can pull someone unexpected. 

[rickh150]

58 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Well, then it's win win....but there 100% HAS to be full revenue sharing 1st

I think it will be just share all tv money, a reasonable floor, and a harsh luxury tax….idiots to miss all season. And a universal draft starting in like 2029.