Dodgers get Skubal

[trwi7]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The silver lining:

Skubal's first start for the Dodgers is against the Cubs on Tuesday.

After that, he can blow out his elbow for all I care.

He'll probably give up 8 runs in 5 innings.

[LouisEly]

I keep reading this "River Ryan is almost 28, he's not a prospect" BS.

Counterpoint - being almost 28 makes him more valuable.

Why?

The Tigers have team and salary control during his peak years (ages 27-32).  He's not going to become a FA as soon as he hits his peak - he's not going to become a FA until he's 32.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

I keep reading this "River Ryan is almost 28, he's not a prospect" BS.

Counterpoint - being almost 28 makes him more valuable.

Why?

The Tigers have team and salary control during his peak years (ages 27-32).  He's not going to become a FA as soon as he hits his peak - he's not going to become a FA until he's 32.

Counter-counterpoint :  Because of injuries, Ryan has been able to eclipse 100IP in only 1 of his professional seasons.  At this rate he'll be ramped up to a full mlb starting pitcher workload by the time he reaches free agency at 32.  

 

The truth is it would be a surprise for Ryan to last long enough as a pitcher to ever reach free agency based on his career arc and agr he's already reached.

[LouisEly]

27 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

At this rate he'll be ramped up to a full mlb starting pitcher workload by the time he reaches free agency at 32.

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

[thebruce44]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

Do you have data to back that up? How often do you see MLB pitchers ramping up from 100 IP after age 28 and would there be enough data points to convincingly say there is a difference from a 23 year old? Especially as younger players seem to recover faster.

[thebruce44]

Another conspiracy theory-- The Dodger's will throw the NLCS to us so they can try to keep the status quo for as long as possible. Lose the battle, but win the war!

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

He then blew out his elbow in 2024, didnt pitch at all in 2025, and cant stay on the mound in 2026 because of hamstring problems.

 

If you want to go ahead and send Ryan out there for 150+ IP next season, have at it - i'll tell you he wont get there.

 

The more likely scenario is the ship is sailing away on Ryan's ceiling to be a quality starting pitcher as a big leaguer and his injury history and delayed development has him headed to the bullpen if he wants an extended mlb career.