Dodgers get Skubal

[trwi7]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The silver lining:

Skubal's first start for the Dodgers is against the Cubs on Tuesday.

After that, he can blow out his elbow for all I care.

He'll probably give up 8 runs in 5 innings.

[LouisEly]

I keep reading this "River Ryan is almost 28, he's not a prospect" BS.

Counterpoint - being almost 28 makes him more valuable.

Why?

The Tigers have team and salary control during his peak years (ages 27-32).  He's not going to become a FA as soon as he hits his peak - he's not going to become a FA until he's 32.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

I keep reading this "River Ryan is almost 28, he's not a prospect" BS.

Counterpoint - being almost 28 makes him more valuable.

Why?

The Tigers have team and salary control during his peak years (ages 27-32).  He's not going to become a FA as soon as he hits his peak - he's not going to become a FA until he's 32.

Counter-counterpoint :  Because of injuries, Ryan has been able to eclipse 100IP in only 1 of his professional seasons.  At this rate he'll be ramped up to a full mlb starting pitcher workload by the time he reaches free agency at 32.  

 

The truth is it would be a surprise for Ryan to last long enough as a pitcher to ever reach free agency based on his career arc and agr he's already reached.

[LouisEly]

27 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

At this rate he'll be ramped up to a full mlb starting pitcher workload by the time he reaches free agency at 32.

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

[thebruce44]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

Do you have data to back that up? How often do you see MLB pitchers ramping up from 100 IP after age 28 and would there be enough data points to convincingly say there is a difference from a 23 year old? Especially as younger players seem to recover faster.

[thebruce44]

Another conspiracy theory-- The Dodger's will throw the NLCS to us so they can try to keep the status quo for as long as possible. Lose the battle, but win the war!

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

That risk subsides once a pitcher reaches his physical peak of age 27.  The ramp-up risk is for younger pitchers.

Ryan threw 104 innings in 2023.

He then blew out his elbow in 2024, didnt pitch at all in 2025, and cant stay on the mound in 2026 because of hamstring problems.

 

If you want to go ahead and send Ryan out there for 150+ IP next season, have at it - i'll tell you he wont get there.

 

The more likely scenario is the ship is sailing away on Ryan's ceiling to be a quality starting pitcher as a big leaguer and his injury history and delayed development has him headed to the bullpen if he wants an extended mlb career.

[SeaBass]

8 hours ago, thebruce44 said:

Another conspiracy theory-- The Dodger's will throw the NLCS to us so they can try to keep the status quo for as long as possible. Lose the battle, but win the war!

I see no reason why the Dodgers would be afraid to compete with the rest of the league even with training wheels on. And they'd conceivably be able to keep more of their profits than they are now and franchise value would continue to climb.

[LouisEly]

13 hours ago, thebruce44 said:

Do you have data to back that up? How often do you see MLB pitchers ramping up from 100 IP after age 28 and would there be enough data points to convincingly say there is a difference from a 23 year old? Especially as younger players seem to recover faster.

Someone posted data to support that on this site a few years ago.

If you want a recent example, Clay Holmes switched to a starter last year in his age 32 season.  Went from 63 IP to 165 IP.  He's on the IL because of a leg fracture from taking a line drive.

[thebruce44]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Someone posted data to support that on this site a few years ago.

If you want a recent example, Clay Holmes switched to a starter last year in his age 32 season.  Went from 63 IP to 165 IP.  He's on the IL because of a leg fracture from taking a line drive.

I'm asking for the opposite of a recent example and actual data on a decent sample size. I believe you that you may have saw some data years ago that convinced you, but that isn't really going to get me to buy in.

[Samurai Bucky]

On 8/1/2026 at 11:18 PM, Samurai Bucky said:

Arnold will only make a trade to get the sixth string bat boy so the Brewers will have a backup to a backup.  
 

I have zero confidence that there’s going to be some type of a needle mover trade. 

I am willing to stand up and admit I was wrong.  While Arnold didn't get the biggest names on the market, I believe he did make some moves to help the team down the stretch.

39 lashes with wet noodles shall commence now... 😉

[owbc]

Not sure what to make of that, but hopefully we learn more… 

[titletownking]

Lineup feels incomplete, pitching feels very solid. Don’t see how we compete with the dodgers if it gets that far. Very disappointed in this deadline 

[Matt]

McCalvy confirmed that Pena was in the offer for Skubal, along with two more hitters, at least one being Top 100. Speculation/deduction has it being either Jett or Adamczewski, with the third hitter being on another top 100 or just outside it.

If true, and no reason to believe it's not, the Tigers were always only dealing with the Dodgers. That the deal got done days before the deadline only adds fuel to that fire. 

Media screaming and scolding  about the Brewers not landing him can go kick rocks. 

[titanrick]

31 minutes ago, Matt said:

McCalvy confirmed that Pena was in the offer for Skubal, along with two more hitters, at least one being Top 100. Speculation/deduction has it being either Jett or Adamczewski, with the third hitter being on another top 100 or just outside it.

If true, and no reason to believe it's not, the Tigers were always only dealing with the Dodgers. That the deal got done days before the deadline only adds fuel to that fire. 

Media screaming and scolding  about the Brewers not landing him can go kick rocks. 

Yeah, that is a big clue to me.  If you're the Tigers, you have zero incentive to agree to a trade Saturday night because waiting until Monday afternoon could only drive up the price further as teams get more desperate. 

But if you insisted on Pena and Henderson (as an example) from Milwaukee and they flat out said "We're not giving you both of them" or "Henderson is off the table", then you would feel comfortable taking the Dodgers' best offer,  You could assume that you were not going to get more value by waiting until Monday afternoon.

The media "scolding" us for not matching or exceeding the Dodgers' offer is completely ignoring the fact that we NEED our top prospects to compete in the future.  Giving them away for a two-month rental is an enormous cost for us.  The Dodgers don't need them.  When a hole opens up in the OF or in their starting rotation, they simply go out and sign the two best available FAs for $300M each.  It's just not a level playing field, even when you're talking trades.  No one seems to understand that aspect of it.

[MrTPlush]

53 minutes ago, Matt said:

McCalvy confirmed that Pena was in the offer for Skubal, along with two more hitters, at least one being Top 100. Speculation/deduction has it being either Jett or Adamczewski, with the third hitter being on another top 100 or just outside it.

If true, and no reason to believe it's not, the Tigers were always only dealing with the Dodgers. That the deal got done days before the deadline only adds fuel to that fire. 

Media screaming and scolding  about the Brewers not landing him can go kick rocks. 

It literally does not mean that at all, actually. You are grasping for straws.

 

Just because you think our offer was clearly better, does not make it fact.

[Matt]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

It literally does not mean that at all, actually. You are grasping for straws.

 

Just because you think our offer was clearly better, does not make it fact.

I'm just using Murphy's own words. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

It literally does not mean that at all, actually. You are grasping for straws.

 

Just because you think our offer was clearly better, does not make it fact.

If the Tigers were dead set on getting pitching back in the deal, I hope they enjoy Old Man River. 

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

I'm just using Murphy's own words. 

I don’t think Murphy was inferring that at all.

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

If the Tigers were dead set on getting pitching back in the deal, I hope they enjoy Old Man River. 

Yeah, the Brewers system has some projectable arms, and coupling with young pitching already up in Milwaukee, looks pretty darn good....but it's crazy depth is in up the middle, toolsy position players.  IMO, Pena alone plus another top 100 Brewer position player prospect is much more value than what the Dodgers sent to Detroit (some value analysis of the hypothetical trade package scenario that had both Pena and Henderson in the package had it around 117, while the actual Dodgers package Detroit accepted was like 24).

If Detroit was insistent on getting multiple arms, or 1 MLB-ready young starter back in a trade for Skubal, the Brewers weren't going to give them that for 2 months.  I'm more or less convinced the Tigers took a less valuable package for Skubal than whatever the Brewers would have offered, knowing that's where he wanted to be traded to and because they wanted more pitching back than what the Brewers were willing to give up.

Tinfoil hat time, it wouldn't surprise me in the least for Skubal's agent (Boras) to weigh in with various GMs in on the Skubal sweepstakes, indicating he's either going to the Dodgers or he'll shut himself down for the rest of the year to avoid another arm injury before he hits free agency (since it's likely the Dodgers who will sign him anyway).

[adambr2]

18 hours ago, owbc said:

Not sure what to make of that, but hopefully we learn more… 

I am also confused. Why would a seller ever care about anything other than the best package?

If we offered Pena, Jett or Adamczewski, and  Payne or Fischer, that is indeed a strong, competitive offer.

Hopefully the quote means nothing more than the Tigers required pitching back. I can understand us not dealing Henderson, although I wouldn’t have hesitated for one second if they had accepted Sproat instead.

It does seem like the Tigers have given the Dodgers a couple sweetheart deals in the last few years which is a bit eyebrow raising. 

[Samurai Bucky]

40 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I am also confused. Why would a seller ever care about anything other than the best package?

If we offered Pena, Jett or Adamczewski, and  Payne or Fischer, that is indeed a strong, competitive offer.

Hopefully the quote means nothing more than the Tigers required pitching back. I can understand us not dealing Henderson, although I wouldn’t have hesitated for one second if they had accepted Sproat instead.

It does seem like the Tigers have given the Dodgers a couple sweetheart deals in the last few years which is a bit eyebrow raising. 

That is a great point.  I wonder if the Tigers have some type of agreement in place with Boras much the same way that the Milwaukee Bucks have a deal in place with Gary Trent, Jr.'s agent.  It all seems very fishy to me, too.

Either that, or the Tigers' FO is really, really inept.

[tmwiese55]

In addition to the agent pressuring the seller, they make it known to other teams that he really doesn't want to go there.  So as an impending FA with 400 mill at stake is he going to be all in and give it his all or find any reason to play it safe and take the year off.  Its a factor to give up a haul for a disgruntled player and 'force' him to pitch for you when all he has to do is say his elbow is sore and he's done for the year.    What sabathia did is rare.

My guess from the bits that have gotten out there is boris applied a lot of pressure to everyone involved here and he has a ton of power. 

[patrickgpe]

From McCalvey's article, it appears the Brewers were willing to offer better prospects than the Dodgers, but not give up a young controllable arm. If Henderson was the player that caused the Brewers to not get Skubal, then I am OK with all of it. If it was Gasser or Sproat, I think they should have done it (I don't think one of those 2 get it done though). 

[cragi]

38 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

From McCalvey's article, it appears the Brewers were willing to offer better prospects than the Dodgers, but not give up a young controllable arm. If Henderson was the player that caused the Brewers to not get Skubal, then I am OK with all of it. If it was Gasser or Sproat, I think they should have done it (I don't think one of those 2 get it done though). 

The thing that gets me is that you can’t tell me there was no team that didn’t want some of our top prospects that are hitters and willing to depart with a better pitcher than the Dodgers actually gave the Tigers. I’m surprised we cannot find a three-way partner.