After Missing Out on Tarik Skubal, Brewers Still Got What They Needed Most at Trade Deadline

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images

Multiple reports indicated that the Brewers were in on the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes before the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers. Hours before Monday afternoon's trade deadline, manager Pat Murphy confirmed that Milwaukee pushed to acquire the most notable name on this year's market.

"I know we went after trying to get that player," Murphy said.

He made clear that it wasn't a half-baked pursuit or a due-diligence check-in on Detroit's asking price. From Murphy's comments, it sounded like the Brewers felt they made a compelling offer—possibly one they felt exceeded the three-player offer the Dodgers made.

"I don't know exactly the details of it, but I know this: it isn't as simple as, 'That's a better package,'" Murphy said. "It's not as simple as that. There's a lot more layers to it. I don't understand it fully, but I think this is a bigger situation, rather than, 'Well, that was a better package.' To say the Brewers didn't try is simply incorrect."

Murphy wasn't implying that a conspiracy was afoot, of course. He just meant that teams accept some trades and decline others based on idiosyncrasies of evaluation and based on some externalities. That the Tigers took the Dodgers' offer doesn't mean that, objectively, that offer contained more talent or future value than the one the Brewers made.

"I think we were prepared to push a lot of chips in," said president of baseball operations and general manager Matt Arnold, speaking generally after declining to discuss specific trade targets and negotiations.

Yet, Skubal became the latest star to join the large-market, high-spending, repeat-champion Dodgers on Saturday night—two full working days ahead of the deadline—in exchange for a polarizing package that many pundits deemed light.

Murphy's remarks will further fuel theories of shady operations making it happen, but that's a discussion for a different time. For the Brewers' front office, the immediate reality was that Skubal was off the table, and they needed to look elsewhere for reinforcements.

"When you're in on a lot of stuff, there's certainly some things where you come up short, and you just got to pick yourself up and dust yourself off, and try to do what you can to get the next thing," Arnold said. "And ultimately, I think we were able to accomplish a lot over the last 48 hours to get some stuff done to really help the team."

That included a deal with the division-rival Cardinals for right-hander Dustin May and left-hander JoJo Romero, and a trade with the Rockies for breakout reliever Antonio Senzatela. The trio satisfies Milwaukee's greatest need for the rest of the regular season: pitching. The Brewers rank third in baseball in ERA- and first in FIP-, but several key hurlers are facing workload concerns.

"I think, especially this time of year, you can never have too much pitching," Arnold said. "I think the guys that we got are pretty battle-tested, experienced guys."

First came the deal for May and Romero, which cost what many deemed an overpay in breakout prospects Josiah Ragsdale (Brewer Fanatic's No. 16 prospect) and Alexander Frias. However, it could be that the Brewers' internal evaluations of Ragsdale and Frias, who were behind a few other outfielders on the prospect depth chart, are lower than the Cardinals'. Both May and Romero have steep power sinkers, and the former has upside after rediscovering his upper-90s velocity this year. The deal could age better than the industry expects it to for the Brewers.

"It's hard to make trades. It's not as easy as, 'Well, just this guy for this guy or this guy.' It's just not that easy," Murphy said. "And the rating of the prospects and all that kind of stuff, be careful. That's been proven not to be very valid, specifically."

May should provide an upgrade over an inconsistent Brandon Sproat in the rotation, while allowing the Brewers to manage the innings of Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan. Romero will be out a few more weeks as he recovers from an appendectomy. Senzatela, who has broken out as a multi-inning reliever by adding velocity and supporting his four-seam fastball with a new cutter and sinker, will join the bullpen immediately. He'll ease the strain on Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick, who have recently been inconsistent after heavy usage.

With 50 regular-season games left to play, the Brewers are looking to secure a first-round postseason bye while holding off the Cubs in the NL Central. To maximize their success for those 50 games, they needed more pitching depth. At minimum, May, Romero, and Senzatela are solid additions, and each has the upside to become even more impactful.

However, for the Brewers to take down the Dodgers or another juggernaut in a short October series, they arguably need more power bats who can change a game with one swing. Their 101 home runs are the fewest in baseball, and their .144 isolated power ranks 27th. They probably would have been well-served by adding a bat, but it's easy to see why they didn't. There were few true power hitters traded, and pitching was a greater need to reach the postseason. Furthermore, the clearest way to upgrade the offense would be replacing Christian Yelich (92 wRC+) at DH, a move that could have negative implications off the field.

It was not a fantastic deadline, but it was among the Brewers' best in recent seasons. They went fishing in deeper waters than usual this year, and after coming up empty on Skubal, they struck their usual balance of improving their big-league roster without losing any of their blue-chip prospects.

"We certainly talked about doing some irresponsible stuff as well, but I would say we tried to thread the needle," Arnold said. The tight-knit clubhouse will try to weave their way through the rest of the campaign with the help Arnold found in the eye of that needle.

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[Secret Stadium Sauce]

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However, it could be that the Brewers' internal evaluations of Ragsdale and Frias, who were behind a few other outfielders on the prospect depth chart, are lower than the Cardinals'.

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"It's hard to make trades. It's not as easy as, 'Well, just this guy for this guy or this guy.' It's just not that easy," Murphy said. "And the rating of the prospects and all that kind of stuff, be careful. That's been proven not to be very valid, specifically."

 

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

[IndyCrew5]

I'm just not sure I agree with not upgrading the offense being a relative footnote in this story. I know they're in a tough spot with Yelich and we're seeing massive underperformance over the last month from guys like Chourio and Contreras, but something has to give. We're just hoping everyone rounds back into form by the playoffs?

[PBTank]

42 minutes ago, Secret Stadium Sauce said:

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

I think these are the same people that said the trade that included Yophery Rodriguez was also the worst thing ever.

[LouisEly]

I think it was Doug Melvin who said that pitchers are worth more at the deadline and hitters are worth more in the offseason.  And when a team acquires pitching, they usually have to give young pitching back; if they don't, they usually have to give up a lot of hitting.

Sure seemed like that this year - when young pitching was given back, it didn't seem like teams had to give up as much as when only position players were going back.

But the Brewers came out of the deadline without giving up Made, Pena, Fischer, Adamczewski, Pratt, Lara, Payne, Burke, Letson, Knoth, the elder Ebel, Hardin, Quero, or Dinges.  The future is still bright.

I think Romero is a sneaky good acquisition.  Career 51% ground ball rate plays well with this defense, and has saved 12 games over the last 3 seasons.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Secret Stadium Sauce said:

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

I mean, Murphy’s quote was about word for word what I would expect him to say about it. 

Did you think he was going to say “holy crap. I saw what we gave up for these two. We are screwed in 3 years. “

[Trax]

I hate giving up prospects and I really like Ragsdale but both trades on the final day made total sense.

 

We without a doubt improved our team as we ease into the post season without burning a present top 10 prospect.   

[shanedog19]

I'm fine with the trade deadline moves overall. I think the team should promote Fischer now and see what he can do. He competed well against big league pitching in the WBC, and I think he could provide a spark to a floundering offense.