After Missing Out on Tarik Skubal, Brewers Still Got What They Needed Most at Trade Deadline

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Jon Endow-Imagn Images

Multiple reports indicated that the Brewers were in on the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes before the Tigers traded him to the Dodgers. Hours before Monday afternoon's trade deadline, manager Pat Murphy confirmed that Milwaukee pushed to acquire the most notable name on this year's market.

"I know we went after trying to get that player," Murphy said.

He made clear that it wasn't a half-baked pursuit or a due-diligence check-in on Detroit's asking price. From Murphy's comments, it sounded like the Brewers felt they made a compelling offer—possibly one they felt exceeded the three-player offer the Dodgers made.

"I don't know exactly the details of it, but I know this: it isn't as simple as, 'That's a better package,'" Murphy said. "It's not as simple as that. There's a lot more layers to it. I don't understand it fully, but I think this is a bigger situation, rather than, 'Well, that was a better package.' To say the Brewers didn't try is simply incorrect."

Murphy wasn't implying that a conspiracy was afoot, of course. He just meant that teams accept some trades and decline others based on idiosyncrasies of evaluation and based on some externalities. That the Tigers took the Dodgers' offer doesn't mean that, objectively, that offer contained more talent or future value than the one the Brewers made.

"I think we were prepared to push a lot of chips in," said president of baseball operations and general manager Matt Arnold, speaking generally after declining to discuss specific trade targets and negotiations.

Yet, Skubal became the latest star to join the large-market, high-spending, repeat-champion Dodgers on Saturday night—two full working days ahead of the deadline—in exchange for a polarizing package that many pundits deemed light.

Murphy's remarks will further fuel theories of shady operations making it happen, but that's a discussion for a different time. For the Brewers' front office, the immediate reality was that Skubal was off the table, and they needed to look elsewhere for reinforcements.

"When you're in on a lot of stuff, there's certainly some things where you come up short, and you just got to pick yourself up and dust yourself off, and try to do what you can to get the next thing," Arnold said. "And ultimately, I think we were able to accomplish a lot over the last 48 hours to get some stuff done to really help the team."

That included a deal with the division-rival Cardinals for right-hander Dustin May and left-hander JoJo Romero, and a trade with the Rockies for breakout reliever Antonio Senzatela. The trio satisfies Milwaukee's greatest need for the rest of the regular season: pitching. The Brewers rank third in baseball in ERA- and first in FIP-, but several key hurlers are facing workload concerns.

"I think, especially this time of year, you can never have too much pitching," Arnold said. "I think the guys that we got are pretty battle-tested, experienced guys."

First came the deal for May and Romero, which cost what many deemed an overpay in breakout prospects Josiah Ragsdale (Brewer Fanatic's No. 16 prospect) and Alexander Frias. However, it could be that the Brewers' internal evaluations of Ragsdale and Frias, who were behind a few other outfielders on the prospect depth chart, are lower than the Cardinals'. Both May and Romero have steep power sinkers, and the former has upside after rediscovering his upper-90s velocity this year. The deal could age better than the industry expects it to for the Brewers.

"It's hard to make trades. It's not as easy as, 'Well, just this guy for this guy or this guy.' It's just not that easy," Murphy said. "And the rating of the prospects and all that kind of stuff, be careful. That's been proven not to be very valid, specifically."

May should provide an upgrade over an inconsistent Brandon Sproat in the rotation, while allowing the Brewers to manage the innings of Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan. Romero will be out a few more weeks as he recovers from an appendectomy. Senzatela, who has broken out as a multi-inning reliever by adding velocity and supporting his four-seam fastball with a new cutter and sinker, will join the bullpen immediately. He'll ease the strain on Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick, who have recently been inconsistent after heavy usage.

With 50 regular-season games left to play, the Brewers are looking to secure a first-round postseason bye while holding off the Cubs in the NL Central. To maximize their success for those 50 games, they needed more pitching depth. At minimum, May, Romero, and Senzatela are solid additions, and each has the upside to become even more impactful.

However, for the Brewers to take down the Dodgers or another juggernaut in a short October series, they arguably need more power bats who can change a game with one swing. Their 101 home runs are the fewest in baseball, and their .144 isolated power ranks 27th. They probably would have been well-served by adding a bat, but it's easy to see why they didn't. There were few true power hitters traded, and pitching was a greater need to reach the postseason. Furthermore, the clearest way to upgrade the offense would be replacing Christian Yelich (92 wRC+) at DH, a move that could have negative implications off the field.

It was not a fantastic deadline, but it was among the Brewers' best in recent seasons. They went fishing in deeper waters than usual this year, and after coming up empty on Skubal, they struck their usual balance of improving their big-league roster without losing any of their blue-chip prospects.

"We certainly talked about doing some irresponsible stuff as well, but I would say we tried to thread the needle," Arnold said. The tight-knit clubhouse will try to weave their way through the rest of the campaign with the help Arnold found in the eye of that needle.

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[Secret Stadium Sauce]

Quote

However, it could be that the Brewers' internal evaluations of Ragsdale and Frias, who were behind a few other outfielders on the prospect depth chart, are lower than the Cardinals'.

Quote

 

"It's hard to make trades. It's not as easy as, 'Well, just this guy for this guy or this guy.' It's just not that easy," Murphy said. "And the rating of the prospects and all that kind of stuff, be careful. That's been proven not to be very valid, specifically."

 

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

[IndyCrew5]

I'm just not sure I agree with not upgrading the offense being a relative footnote in this story. I know they're in a tough spot with Yelich and we're seeing massive underperformance over the last month from guys like Chourio and Contreras, but something has to give. We're just hoping everyone rounds back into form by the playoffs?

[PBTank]

42 minutes ago, Secret Stadium Sauce said:

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

I think these are the same people that said the trade that included Yophery Rodriguez was also the worst thing ever.

[LouisEly]

I think it was Doug Melvin who said that pitchers are worth more at the deadline and hitters are worth more in the offseason.  And when a team acquires pitching, they usually have to give young pitching back; if they don't, they usually have to give up a lot of hitting.

Sure seemed like that this year - when young pitching was given back, it didn't seem like teams had to give up as much as when only position players were going back.

But the Brewers came out of the deadline without giving up Made, Pena, Fischer, Adamczewski, Pratt, Lara, Payne, Burke, Letson, Knoth, the elder Ebel, Hardin, Quero, or Dinges.  The future is still bright.

I think Romero is a sneaky good acquisition.  Career 51% ground ball rate plays well with this defense, and has saved 12 games over the last 3 seasons.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Secret Stadium Sauce said:

Impossible! I read from some other fans that the May trade was the worst trade ever made by the Brewers...EVER!

 

 

I mean, Murphy’s quote was about word for word what I would expect him to say about it. 

Did you think he was going to say “holy crap. I saw what we gave up for these two. We are screwed in 3 years. “

[Trax]

I hate giving up prospects and I really like Ragsdale but both trades on the final day made total sense.

 

We without a doubt improved our team as we ease into the post season without burning a present top 10 prospect.   

[shanedog19]

I'm fine with the trade deadline moves overall. I think the team should promote Fischer now and see what he can do. He competed well against big league pitching in the WBC, and I think he could provide a spark to a floundering offense.

[Outlander]

Yes, there are two parts of this trade and in three years we might be lamenting having to play against these guys so often on the Cardinals but right now the team is better. May will be starting in the playoffs, he has starting experience in the playoffs and has played in the World Series. Romero has been real solid against lefties for a long time, hopefully he can relive some of the stress off Ashby.

[adambr2]

I mean, I’m happy with the guys we got in a vacuum. I can see either or both being big contributors in the playoffs. 

If this was just Ragsdale and a lower guy I could probably get on board. 

Frias is already the number 4 in the Cardinals system. It could be a haunting move. I hope not.

[dlk9s]

Assuming health and players continuing to pitch like they have been this year, the pitching staff is really, really good after these trades.

[Matt]

The Brewers have, at worst, the second best staff in the NL. Their offense has been lagging behind all season, and in some key areas it's downright awful. Saying they got what they needed at the deadline seems...not true.

[Underachiever]

6 minutes ago, Matt said:

The Brewers have, at worst, the second best staff in the NL. Their offense has been lagging behind all season, and in some key areas it's downright awful. Saying they got what they needed at the deadline seems...not true.

I wanted them to get hitting, and I am concerned about the same-old, same-old in the playoffs, but come on, MKE has the 5th most runs per game in MLB. Not "lagging behind all season."

[LouisEly]

8 minutes ago, Matt said:

The Brewers have, at worst, the second best staff in the NL. Their offense has been lagging behind all season, and in some key areas it's downright awful. Saying they got what they needed at the deadline seems...not true.

Gentle reminder that the Brewers are 5th in all of MLB in runs scored per game.  And the Cubs just completed a series against the Yankees at home where they scored 6 runs in 3 games, with 5 coming in one game.

Saying that they've "been lagging behind all season" doesn't seem true either.

[Underachiever]

Just now, LouisEly said:

Gentle reminder that the Brewers are 5th in all of MLB in runs scored per game.  And the Cubs just completed a series against the Yankees at home where they scored 6 runs in 3 games, with 5 coming in one game.

Saying that they've "been lagging behind all season" doesn't seem true either.

Jinx

[wibadgers23]

1 minute ago, Underachiever said:

I wanted them to get hitting, and I am concerned about the same-old, same-old in the playoffs, but come on, MKE has the 5th most runs per game in MLB. Not "lagging behind all season."

5th most runs but I'd love to see where they rank in the last month or two. Seems like there have been a lot of guys struggling for a long time now and it's been painful to watch.

[Underachiever]

Just now, wibadgers23 said:

5th most runs but I'd love to see where they rank in the last month or two. Seems like there have been a lot of guys struggling for a long time now and it's been painful to watch.

Go ahead and look. Guy said "lagging behind all season." Don't move his goalpost

[Joseph Zarr]

Getting solid pitching depth is always a good move at a Deadline - as I said in threads I really didn't like One cost and I really liked another. I like all these new deadline pitchers regardless entering the pitching staff.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy MLB teams (and, honestly, all professional sports teams) willingly put themselves in because 'X Player is being paid said amount' is always incredible to behold. The Brewers and Yeli is our current glaring example. The Brewers biggest issue at present, as I see it, is atop their clubhouse leadership. Star players underperforming and playing undisciplined sloppy baseball and a manager and coaching staff intractably stuck in their old pattern of over relying on this production. The inability to reckon with key players in obvious prolonged slumps and repeatedly forcing them into run-producing slots in the line up is just asinine. At least try to kick start them in lower spots in the order. This is not rocket science and yet the smartest man in the room syndrome may cost the Brewers the lead in their division. If you didn't go get an impact bat at the Deadline and you aren't looking at calling up an impact bat (not that Murphy would play them anyways), you have to shuffle the cards you are dealt before you deal. OR, in Murphy's case stubbornly prioritize platoons sacrificing offensive production and demanding the star players play themselves out of the slump while repeatedly failing in key run producing situations on a game-by-game basis. It's playing with your food for no reason. I love Murphy as the clubhouse leader so don't get me wrong. But, he is certainly not beyond reproach and he absolutely has his weaknesses. We are experiencing one of these spells right now. Batting Yeli lead off and 3rd as he currently looks and has looked for weeks is mind numbing obstinance and a complete lack of accountability and/or creativity.

Just my opinions and nothing more.

[Matt]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Gentle reminder that the Brewers are 5th in all of MLB in runs scored per game.  And the Cubs just completed a series against the Yankees at home where they scored 6 runs in 3 games, with 5 coming in one game.

Saying that they've "been lagging behind all season" doesn't seem true either.

I don't want to have another argument about how the Brewers style doesn't work in the playoffs. But when you're dead last in MLB in home runs, there's by default no other thing that they needed more of at the deadline. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

21 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Frias is already the number 4 in the Cardinals system. It could be a haunting move. I hope not.

That's more a indictment of the Cardinals system not being very good. 

[wibadgers23]

2 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Go ahead and look. Guy said "lagging behind all season." Don't move his goalpost

Brewers rank 23rd in runs scored since July 1, but yes I agree this has not been an all season issue. They just haven't been good for the past month or so.

[SeaBass]

4 minutes ago, Matt said:

I don't want to have another argument about how the Brewers style doesn't work in the playoffs. But when you're dead last in MLB in home runs, there's by default no other thing that they needed more of at the deadline. 

Does it not work in the playoffs as a blanket statement or did they beat the Cubs to advance to the NLCS and then lose to the twice consecutive World Series champion Dodgers? Because I'm not sure which paints the clearest picture.

[LouisEly]

4 minutes ago, Matt said:

I don't want to have another argument about how the Brewers style doesn't work in the playoffs. But when you're dead last in MLB in home runs, there's by default no other thing that they needed more of at the deadline. 

The Brewers home run rate against the Cubs in the playoffs last year was higher than the Dodgers home run rate over the entire playoffs.  The Dodgers home run rate dropped by 29% in the playoffs.  

The data doesn't support your argument.

[Matt]

4 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Go ahead and look. Guy said "lagging behind all season." Don't move his goalpost

I mean, the offense has been. When you have, at worst, a top two staff in just about every category of pitching while the offense in terms of runs (5th), total bases, (10th), hits (7th), strikeouts (6th), slugging (11th), and OPS (6th)...yes, the offense has been lagging behind. It's been held up almost entirely on walks (2nd), contributing to their OBP (3rd). When they get to the playoffs and face pitchers with better command, we're going to see the same result we've seen in the last decade. A bad offense and another early exit.  

[LouisEly]

2 minutes ago, Matt said:

When they get to the playoffs and face pitchers with better command, we're going to see the same result we've seen in the last decade.

Losing to the eventual World Series champion?