Cubs (Gausman) vs Brewers (Henderson): 09/09/26, 6:40 PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

Henderson gets the ball for the Brewers against Gausman and the Cubs at American Family Field tonight.

[Brock Beauchamp]

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Trevor Megill	20	0	0	11	25	56
JoJo Romero	0	13	35	0	0	48
DL Hall	0	34	0	0	17	51
Chad Patrick	41	0	0	18	9	68
Antonio Senzatela	15	0	28	0	11	54
Abner Uribe	0	0	4	13	0	17
Aaron Ashby	19	23	0	20	1	63

[adambr2]

A sweep would be sweet. RIP to the Cubs in the division, they’re just hoping to hold onto a WC. 

Unfortunately, the Dodgers continue to win and are within 1.5 games. With really very little competition left on their schedule, it may be a daunting task to hold onto the 1 seed. 

The good news is, the far more important thing is holding onto a 2 to secure the bye, and while it’s not over, that lead is at a much more comfortable 4.5 games.

Others may disagree, but I see relatively little difference between the 1 and 2 seed this year. The 1 will likely host a Phils/Cubs winner, I’m not sure that’s preferable to hosting one of Braves/D’Backs/Padres. 

Something about the 2-3-2 NLCS format makes me not hate being on the road. You’d go into games 1/2 in LA just trying to steal 1 and if you can do that, you flip homefield and get 3 games back here. 

If you can push it to games 6/7 back in LA it’s anybody’s series at that point anyway. Maybe I am just rationalizing. But HFA did us no good in the NLCS last year.  

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There's less real difference between the 1 and 6 seed than people want to believe.

[long ball]

24 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

A sweep would be sweet. RIP to the Cubs in the division, they’re just hoping to hold onto a WC. 

Unfortunately, the Dodgers continue to win and are within 1.5 games. With really very little competition left on their schedule, it may be a daunting task to hold onto the 1 seed. 

The good news is, the far more important thing is holding onto a 2 to secure the bye, and while it’s not over, that lead is at a much more comfortable 4.5 games.

Others may disagree, but I see relatively little difference between the 1 and 2 seed this year. The 1 will likely host a Phils/Cubs winner, I’m not sure that’s preferable to hosting one of Braves/D’Backs/Padres. 

Something about the 2-3-2 NLCS format makes me not hate being on the road. You’d go into games 1/2 in LA just trying to steal 1 and if you can do that, you flip homefield and get 3 games back here. 

If you can push it to games 6/7 back in LA it’s anybody’s series at that point anyway. Maybe I am just rationalizing. But HFA did us no good in the NLCS last year.  

This is where I’m at. I wouldn’t advocate for trying to “manipulate” our playoff opponent like you sometimes see down the stretch of the NBA regular season, but I’m indifferent on the 1-2 seed. 
 

I am holding out slight hope for 100 wins just because it would be really cool, but we obviously shouldn’t go balls to the wall chasing that. 

[adambr2]

14 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

There's less real difference between the 1 and 6 seed than people want to believe.

Well the 1 and 2 skip an entire playoff round. That’s a very big deal. 

[Frisbee Slider]

23 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well the 1 and 2 skip an entire playoff round. That’s a very big deal. 

I think home field advantage matters more to Milwaukee than any other team in the league, too.

[39Streak]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Trevor Megill	20	0	0	11	25	56
JoJo Romero	0	13	35	0	0	48
DL Hall	0	34	0	0	17	51
Chad Patrick	41	0	0	18	9	68
Antonio Senzatela	15	0	28	0	11	54
Abner Uribe	0	0	4	13	0	17
Aaron Ashby	19	23	0	20	1	63

I have to imagine, today is for Brandon Sproat out of the pen.

[adambr2]

2 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I think home field advantage matters more to Milwaukee than any other team in the league, too.

I think it’s a very big deal to them but to what degree kind of depends on the venue. Wrigley is not a pleasant place to play. Atlanta is a far better team at home, so it would be very important against them. 

I don’t know if it would necessarily be a huge deal against the Dodgers in a 2-3-2 NLCS matchup. 

You could throw Miz and Henderson right off the bat and try to steal a game, then get to go to Milwaukee for 3, where you might have to use a guy like Harrison who has struggled but is also much better at home. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Still way too many moving parts to see how the full playoff field shakes out - but based on postseason pitching options i think the Brewers would find themselves in the best possible shape finishing with a top 2 seed, then find a way to avoid a potential NLDS matchup with the Dodgers, Phillies, or Padres.

 

May has to provide some rotation stability and become their 3rd starter for the postseason

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

A sweep would be sweet. RIP to the Cubs in the division, they’re just hoping to hold onto a WC. 

Unfortunately, the Dodgers continue to win and are within 1.5 games. With really very little competition left on their schedule, it may be a daunting task to hold onto the 1 seed. 

The good news is, the far more important thing is holding onto a 2 to secure the bye, and while it’s not over, that lead is at a much more comfortable 4.5 games.

Others may disagree, but I see relatively little difference between the 1 and 2 seed this year. The 1 will likely host a Phils/Cubs winner, I’m not sure that’s preferable to hosting one of Braves/D’Backs/Padres. 

Something about the 2-3-2 NLCS format makes me not hate being on the road. You’d go into games 1/2 in LA just trying to steal 1 and if you can do that, you flip homefield and get 3 games back here. 

If you can push it to games 6/7 back in LA it’s anybody’s series at that point anyway. Maybe I am just rationalizing. But HFA did us no good in the NLCS last year.  

I've been thinking the 2 is the best spot for a while.   Sure you lose HF vs LAD if you play them, but you're a massive dog vs them no matter where it is. Your real hope is that someone beats LA before us anyway (them dropping to the 3 would be great) and if that happens you still have HF vs everyone else.   But its not like they should tank to chase the 2.   Things could still work themselves out with the Cubs dropping to 6 or maybe Phil catching ATL.

Side note, is today the Cubs inevitably catch us in the standings according to real truth tellers?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Skipping a round of course matters, but baseball leaves you chronically exposed to random outcomes more than any other sport. Basically every part of your team can be neutralized on any night. Your great pitcher can throw 8 shutout innings and if you can't hit, you can still lose. Then he can't play for 4 or 5 days. Your great defense can get taken out by a couple balls that never touch the field. A blown save in Game 1 can take an entire series off the rails. This is much harder to do in basketball or something, when the underdog team has to pull off an identical task 4 times. You could drop the Athletics in the playoffs and it's quite possible they win a series. Much harder to do that with a random NFL/NBA team.

So the point of my ramble is really that I don't care too much where we land, whether that's 1 or 3. It'll be a very similar situation regardless, a strong roster that needs to be good and lucky and is of course susceptible to the randomness of the sport, forced to beat some very good teams this year. It has always been the least-hot-takey pro sport for me, where I just shrug and accept the outcome.

I think this is the best team they've ever assembled, the strongest mix of their analytical prowess + a big bit of just raw talent, legitimate superstars. But it doesn't mean they won't get swept in their first series.

[Brian]

4 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Sure you lose HF vs LAD if you play them, but you're a massive dog vs them no matter where it is.

No way that Brewers in Milwaukee would be a massive dog vs the Dodgers.  I don't see it. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 minutes ago, Brian said:

No way that Brewers in Milwaukee would be a massive dog vs the Dodgers.  I don't see it. 

They'd be as big of an underdog as a 100-win club can be. Whether that is based in reality or not, that would be the story.

[CheezWizHed]

58 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I think home field advantage matters more to Milwaukee than any other team in the league, too.

Among the playoff hopefuls, Atlanta and SD have a higher Home/Away split than the Brewers

But the Brewers are tied with the Phillys for the second highest road win percentage overall (to LAD). 

[trwi7]

Enjoy

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[Yaz]

1 hour ago, 39Streak said:

I have to imagine, today is for Brandon Sproat out of the pen.

There will be no SPROATING!

[tmwiese55]

23 minutes ago, Brian said:

No way that Brewers in Milwaukee would be a massive dog vs the Dodgers.  I don't see it. 

For 1 game with Miz on mound sure.   I meant the whole series though.  They'd still be clear dogs (assuming normal health from LAD).   Maybe my word 'huge' is a bit off in baseball due to even the biggest still being like 35% to win a series.  but they'd be clear dogs probably in the 57/43 range for the series

For example:  with the assumption we'll be 1 and them 2 right now, LA is +100 vs MKE +325 to win the NL

[Underachiever]

When discussing potential playoff opponents, I feel like Vizzini choosing which chalice has the iocane powder in Princess Bride. "The Dodgers swept the Brewers in four last year, so clearly I can't choose them. The Cubs would be excruciating to lose to, so they are not to be trifled with. The Padres seem like a bad matchup and have real superstars, so obviously we can't play them. Phillies have great starting pitching, so we cannot play them. And I can't forget how Atlanta shut Milwaukee down in the playoffs, so the Brewers definitely don't want them. And we know to never get involved in a land war in the desert, so we clearly cannot play the DBacks."

And we all know how it ended for Vizzini.

[Brian]

51 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

They'd be as big of an underdog as a 100-win club can be. Whether that is based in reality or not, that would be the story.

I think last year was an eye opener for Murphy, "OVER RESTING" most all our starters at the end of the season and playing flat because of it I believe. 

[Brian]

Also, Shohei is very beat up and doesn't pitch anymore. 

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Ohtani-Injury-2026.jpg 

As special and precious as Shohei Ohtani is, it makes sense that he’s delicate. Both the Dodgers and the Angels before them have handled Ohtani with padded tongs: six-man rotations, pitch counts, a full-time DH role. Ohtani has played just 8 1/3 career innings in the outfield. 

[igor67]

1) Aim for #1 seed for homefield against everyone. 2)And load management instead of rest to avoid being rusty after the bye. 3) Don't worry about your match-up until you know who it will be. Too many good teams anyone can beat anyone. 4) Get to World Series crush the inferior team. 5) Celebrate

[Underachiever]

Had quite a time at the park last night. I was in full crabby ***** mode. When Mitchell had his crappy at bats, when Lara took two backward ks, when they started the game with two double plays, when Chourio got tagged out at home, when Aaron Freaking Civale strikes out the first four batters he faces and gets 6 outs on 25 pitches (while Megill also threw 25 pitches and only got one out), Carson Kelly, of all people, doubles after Ramirez gets a 70-foot single, and I was disappointed in my hot dog. All of this with Cub fans sitting immediately to my left, in front of me, and behind me. I can't remember a game that was so miserable for 26 outs changing so quickly for the better since Contreras walked off the Marlins in July (another game I was at).

Now I feel like the sweep is gonna happen.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, Brian said:

Also, Shohei is very beat up and doesn't pitch anymore. 

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Ohtani-Injury-2026.jpg 

As special and precious as Shohei Ohtani is, it makes sense that he’s delicate. Both the Dodgers and the Angels before them have handled Ohtani with padded tongs: six-man rotations, pitch counts, a full-time DH role. Ohtani has played just 8 1/3 career innings in the outfield, even though he clearly has the legs and arms to play center.

Bet on MKE then.   I actually do think their chances are better than what the odds will be set at, so I'd generally agree with your notion.   But to the original ;point, they're a dog vs LA no matter who gets the extra game. So I don't value it a ton since no matter what I'm hoping LA gets beat before us, and if not I realize we need a lot of breaks to go our way.

But yea, Freeman's power is down, Betts isn't what he was, Teoscar has been bad this year, Tucker has been bad, Ohtani is a tick below his normal hitting, etc.  They aren't the unbeatable machine they could be, but come playoffs we all know they'll kick it in, and somehow Kiki will play at a HOF level for 3 weeks.   But most importantly, even without Ohtani pitching their starting pitching is head and shoulders above everyone else, barring injury.   One thing that could go a long way is one of the starters going down and not being able pitch playoffs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Ohtani was healthy and pitching, the Dodgers would likely have Glasnow in the bullpen for their playoff roster....think about how ridiculous that is.

Because of their star caliber veteran starting pitching, which proved last season to be able to pitch deep into playoff games, the Dodgers are going to be the favorite no matter who and where they play - particularly in longer 7 game series.  Being able to run Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal, and Glasnow to start the first four games of a series and then churn through that rotation on normal rest for the last 3 as needed is nuts.