Brewers (Gasser) vs Orioles (Rogers): 9/19/26, 3:05pm

[Brandon Glick]

A little pedantic, but the Brewers are closing in on a +200 run differential season. Last year, they finished at +172.

[Brandon Glick]

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	16	8	0	18	42
Shane Drohan	0	0	11	0	23	34
Kyle Harrison	0	0	0	50	0	50
JoJo Romero	0	0	14	11	0	25
DL Hall	0	19	0	0	29	48
Chad Patrick	0	0	0	20	9	29
Antonio Senzatela	0	0	14	0	24	38
Abner Uribe	0	0	6	0	21	27
Aaron Ashby	0	31	0	26	0	57

[owbc]

That is an ugly bullpen chart. Roster moving coming? 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, owbc said:

That is an ugly bullpen chart. Roster moving coming? 

The roster move was yesterday (Colton Gordon)

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Impressive work from Drohan last night. That bullpen chart is a little ugly at the moment. Imagine Gordon gets a few innings this afternoon. Romero. Ashby for the save?

We could use some length out of Gasser, although I'm not sure it really matters too much, with off days each Monday, the last week likely being mostly meaningless, and then a full week of rest pre-NLDS.

In other playoff news, I have to admit to feeling a little bad for the O's last night. I know that team isn't good enough. But I've lived through a few of those hanging on the edge of the playoffs seasons, and losses like the one they suffered last night really sting.

Over in the NL, it's mostly about seeding, but the Cubs could legitimately be 4, 5, or 6. I'm not sure how much those teams care about which spot they end up (I imagine the Phillies would prefer to avoid the Braves), but that'll make the Brewers side interesting anyway.

[formerlybis]

I was thinking Gordon was brought in to spot-start on Sunday, and they still might want him to come in after Miz goes around 60-70 pitches. But, given the usage last night, they may need him today instead. 

I also am keeping an eye on Megill - it'd be super ballsy to switch roles with Uribe at this late juncture. Don't know if we're at that level of concern just yet, but, as I said, keeping an eye on it.

[MDCrew]

Going to the game Sunday night, glad Miz is pitching I was worried Gordon would be getting the start. Would be nice if the Brewers could get some runs and coast to an 8-1 win allowing some rest for the BP. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Lol, I mentioned Drohan as the guy to go in the event Woody could pitch again, assuming Harrison was already off and we were going 12 pitchers.  I'm gonna switch and say May, who just hasn't looked good really at all, even though we 1000% won the trade because he gave us innings. I could also give us innings. They'd be the longest innings ever recorded but I could give them. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Brewers are probably gravy with a .500 finish and 3-5 would probably do it too, as far as the 1 seed goes. 

[Brian]

49 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Over in the NL, it's mostly about seeding, but the Cubs could legitimately be 4, 5, or 6. I'm not sure how much those teams care about which spot they end up (I imagine the Phillies would prefer to avoid the Braves), but that'll make the Brewers side interesting anyway.

Wouldn't it be something if AZ won there last 8 games and knocked the Cubs out? 😆 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 minute ago, Brian said:

Wouldn't it be something if AZ won there last 8 games and knocked the Cubs out? 😆 

Cubs would have to go 2-6 if that happened. I think we'd all love it. Won't happen, but at least falling to 6 is entirely in the realm of possibility.

I just enjoy having a straightforward rubric for these last 8 games (for now). I want the Brewers to win and the Cubs to lose! Being in the camp that wants the Crew to avoid the Cubs for personal stress reasons, it's nice to have a path for us to get the 1 and still avoid CHC.

[Just Some Guy]

Last night the Dodgers hit 4 home runs in one inning.  If they add power to that playoff rotation, then, wow, that's a team to fear.  

I'm glad we can't face them until the NLCS.

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Lol, I mentioned Drohan as the guy to go in the event Woody could pitch again, assuming Harrison was already off and we were going 12 pitchers.  I'm gonna switch and say May, who just hasn't looked good really at all, even though we 1000% won the trade because he gave us innings. I could also give us innings. They'd be the longest innings ever recorded but I could give them. 

Haha, as if you (or I) could get outs in the major leagues,  give me a break. 

Love ‘em, hate ‘em May and Romero are bonafide major league players who have had plenty of success in the major leagues and have given the Brewers exactly what they needed: a pitcher to absorb starts while the rest of the rotation dealt with workload/injury issues, and another left handed reliever with leverage experience.

That trade doesn’t have to become a long term win to be the correct decision. The Brewers objective never was to maximize their WAR in 2030, it was converting future probability into usable pitching in 2026 for perhaps the best Brewers team ever assembled. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Haha, as if you (or I) could get outs in the major leagues,  give me a break. 

Love ‘em, hate ‘em May and Romero are bonafide major league players who have had plenty of success in the major leagues and have given the Brewers exactly what they needed: a pitcher to absorb starts while the rest of the rotation dealt with workload/injury issues, and another left handed reliever with leverage experience.

That trade doesn’t have to become a long term win to be the correct decision. The Brewers objective never was to maximize their WAR in 2030, it was converting future probability into usable pitching in 2026 for perhaps the best Brewers team ever assembled. 

Brother you must be doing an hour of yoga before logging on to make a reach like this. 

May has a 5 and a half run ERA in Milwaukee and is below replacement level WAR. That they leave him in long enough to eat innings doesn't make the trade good. They could have gotten better results with a AAA carousel. I don't actually believe you believe the things you're saying on this. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Haha, as if you (or I) could get outs in the major leagues,  give me a break. 

Love ‘em, hate ‘em May and Romero are bonafide major league players who have had plenty of success in the major leagues and have given the Brewers exactly what they needed: a pitcher to absorb starts while the rest of the rotation dealt with workload/injury issues, and another left handed reliever with leverage experience.

That trade doesn’t have to become a long term win to be the correct decision. The Brewers objective never was to maximize their WAR in 2030, it was converting future probability into usable pitching in 2026 for perhaps the best Brewers team ever assembled. 

I'm sorry but the idea May has been exactly what the Brewers needed is hilarious. He's been awful both in terms of actually pitching well and in terms of giving length. Even if you throw out the 1 out performance where he got hurt on the come backer he's been averaging well below 5 innings a start. If this was all the Brewers needed they wouldn't have traded a massive package and instead would have given up a couple lottery tickets for a random Joe Schmoe inning eater.

[Brian]

19 minutes ago, Just Some Guy said:

Last night the Dodgers hit 4 home runs in one inning.  That's a team to be feared.  

I'm glad we can't face them until the NLCS.

Also won 12 of there last 15 games. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

2 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Brother you must be doing an hour of yoga before logging on to make a reach like this. 

May has a 5 and a half run ERA in Milwaukee and is below replacement level WAR. That they leave him in long enough to eat innings doesn't make the trade good. They could have gotten better results with a AAA carousel. I don't actually believe you believe the things you're saying on this. 

I think you're right in that the results have been bad, or at least not as good as people were hoping (although Romero's been a useful bullpen arm--he had one bad outing and has given up solo homers in two others, but he's done good work in high-leverage bridge spots). 

The Brewers certainly wanted more from May. So far, that trade hasn't worked out.

There's a difference between results and process, though. If folks want to disagree with the whole IDEA of the trade, that's completely legit. Trading a couple of high-ceiling OFers for middling pitching has some issues, and there's a good argument to be made against it.

The argument FOR it, though, isn't as bad as these posts have made out for weeks now. You're trading high-variance prospects years away (at positions of great depth for the org, which absolutely matters) for low-variance help now. The only way it really hurts you is Frias and Ragsdale hit a top 10- to 25-percent outcome and May and Romero hit a bottom 10- to 25-percent outcome. Are we there with May and Romero? Maybe. We might get to that exact scenario. But these trades are about make probabilistic bets, not anticipating an exact pattern of future events. We're years away from knowing the other half of the equation.

Point being: I think the good anti-trade argument is a process argument (or that the Brewers radically undervalued Frias and Ragsdale, something we won't be able to know for quite some time). This would be true even if May and Romero had been good! Maybe the results would matter if they'd been top 5-percent good or bottom 5-percent bad, but the rest is pretty murky middle, and I think we're stuck on the low-end of that range for now.

[Jopal78]

8 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Brother you must be doing an hour of yoga before logging on to make a reach like this. 

May has a 5 and a half run ERA in Milwaukee and is below replacement level WAR. That they leave him in long enough to eat innings doesn't make the trade good. They could have gotten better results with a AAA carousel. I don't actually believe you believe the things you're saying on this. 

Well, apparently, the front office disagrees with your armchair assessment of the AAA carousel but hey the A’s and Astros are looking for GMs so not all hope is lost just yet. 

Admittedly, May has not pitched as well as anyone expected. But what I assume you purposefully ignore the reason that Pannone, Stallings, McGee, Hardin, Crow etc. have spent almost all of their careers in the minor leagues while May, except for injury rehab, has not been in the minor leagues since he was a 21 year old kid: physical talent and ability. 

The “AAA carousel” might have been able replicate May’s aggregate so far, but it was not an equivalent bet. Milwaukee bought a much higher degree of certainty that the pitcher taking the ball belonged in the major leagues.

And for a first place team trying to protect Misiorowski, Henderson, Gaser etc, certainty itself had value. They were buying a legitimate MLB starter, so they didn’t have to find out during a pennant race whether their 29 year old AAA guy was one. 

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'm sorry but the idea May has been exactly what the Brewers needed is hilarious. He's been awful both in terms of actually pitching well and in terms of giving length. Even if you throw out the 1 out performance where he got hurt on the come backer he's been averaging well below 5 innings a start. If this was all the Brewers needed they wouldn't have traded a massive package and instead would have given up a couple lottery tickets for a random Joe Schmoe inning eater.

If your conclusion from 31  innings is that Dustin May and some anonymous AAA shuttle arm were interchangeable, you’re not evaluating the trade—you’re reverse-engineering an argument from a bad month. A proven major-league starter struggling for six weeks does not magically turn every organizational depth arm into the same caliber of pitcher.

And calling Ragsdale and Frias a “massive package” is prospect-hugging at its most absurd: two interesting prospects, neither of whom had played above Double-A and neither of whom had demonstrated anything in the majors, are being treated as though Milwaukee traded away established big-league stars.

[LouisEly]

Pitching is expensive at the deadline.  Melvin said that almost two decades ago.

The best argument for May/Romero is that they had to go outside of the org because, even though they haven't been great, they are better than the in-house options the Brewers had.  While I appreciate what Carlos Rodriguez did in taking one for the team on a few occasions, he was not going to solve for the need for innings and LHRP.  Nor was Jared Koenig.  Nor was Drew Rom.  Nor was Craig Yoho.

Who else they could have gotten is an unknown.  They dangled Pena for Skubal.  Clay Holmes has come back down to earth - 17 earned runs given up in his last three starts.  (And Jefferson Rojas is a top 100 prospect now).  People would have had a conniption if they traded for Tyler Mahle and his 5.28 road ERA; nobody saw that rebound.  Robbie Ray hasn't been any better than May.

[sveumrules]

There's essentially a zero percent chance that we win the May/Romero trade from a surplus value standpoint.

While neither have pitched particularly well combining for 40 IP of 0.1 rWAR and -0.57 WPA, it hasn't really impacted the bottom line. The Brewers went 69 W - 43 L  (.616 W%) before the deadline and have gone 27 W - 15 L (.643 W%) since.

How much of a "win" the trade could possibly end up being was almost always going to mostly come down to what happens in the playoffs.

Here's to hoping Dustin & JoJo can get things turned around (or just run into some small sample luck) en route to eleven October wins.

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

There's essentially a zero percent chance that we win the May/Romero trade from a surplus value standpoint.

While neither have pitched particularly well combining for 40 IP of 0.1 rWAR and -0.57 WPA, it hasn't really impacted the bottom line. The Brewers went 69 W - 43 L  (.616 W%) before the deadline and have gone 27 W - 15 L (.643 W%) since.

How much of a "win" the trade could possibly end up being was almost always going to mostly come down to what happens in the playoffs.

Here's to hoping Dustin & JoJo can get things turned around (or just run into some small sample luck) en route to eleven October wins.

But it kinda wasn’t the point to win surplus value was it? 
 

They didn’t win the surplus value with Wily Adames either FWIW. 
 

It’s fun baseball talk stuff but teams don’t really make decisions based solely on surplus value 

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If your conclusion from 31  innings is that Dustin May and some anonymous AAA shuttle arm were interchangeable, you’re not evaluating the trade—you’re reverse-engineering an argument from a bad month. A proven major-league starter struggling for six weeks does not magically turn every organizational depth arm into the same caliber of pitcher.

And calling Ragsdale and Frias a “massive package” is prospect-hugging at its most absurd: two interesting prospects, neither of whom had played above Double-A and neither of whom had demonstrated anything in the majors, are being treated as though Milwaukee traded away established big-league stars.

I never said Dustin May and some anonymous AAA shuttle arm were interchangeable so no idea why you're coming at me with that. You said May who has been terrible as a Brewer has been exactly what the Brewers needed and I'm calling that rubbish. If this is all they needed they would have traded for a Civale or Montas type arm.

It absolutely was a massive package. Frias is a consensus Top 100 prospect. Acting like he's nothing because he's in A ball is being contrarian to be contrarian. 

[willie key]

The may trade is terrible.    I don’t even know why it’s being debated.   He doesn’t eat innings.   We have to use the whole damn bullpen.   He doesn’t perform.   He’s just a name they put on the lineup card every 5-6 days.    Which could have been anybody at this point.     I bet any of the damn minor leaguers could have replicated this nonsense.    He’s bad and will be a huge reason when we lose a playoff series because we have to throw his “veteran” rear end there in game three

the pressure on Miz and Henderson to win every game because the mays and Harrison’s of the world have to have their butts wiped for them because they can’t hack 2-3 innings is aggravating to say the least

[shanedog19]

1 hour ago, Just Some Guy said:

Last night the Dodgers hit 4 home runs in one inning.  If they add power to that playoff rotation, then, wow, that's a team to fear.  

I'm glad we can't face them until the NLCS.

The Dodgers can and will turn it on at any time. It still feels like we are pretty heavy underdogs to them in a 7 game series with how much depth they have.