Cubs or Padres? Why?

[Brewcrew82]

Fun fact: there's another team that has been better record-wise than the Padres since the all-star break. And has an even better bullpen by ERA+ and WPA. And has them matched in runs scored during that time with a superior overall run differential. 

Their name rhymes with the Silwaukee Crewers. If the Padres are a white hot machine....

[bm1090]

I think we beat either team. But I do think it's more stress free against the Cubs. We'll get a couple wins by 4-5 runs just like last year when their pitching implodes. 

I like our chances vs. SD too, but the games will be a grind.

[Just Some Guy]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Their name rhymes with the Silwaukee Crewers.

The Bilwaukee Mrewers?  Sorry, dyslexia without my contacts, hang on.  Ah, now I see what you're sayin'.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Fun fact: there's another team that has been better record-wise than the Padres since the all-star break. And has an even better bullpen by ERA+ and WPA. And has them matched in runs scored during that time with a superior overall run differential. 

Their name rhymes with the Silwaukee Crewers. If the Padres are a white hot machine....

Right. But the question isn't can we beat the Padres, it's would you rather face the other white hot team, or a different team that's definitely NOT white hot right now?

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Team Canada said:

Right. But the question isn't can we beat the Padres, it's would you rather face the other white hot team, or a different team that's definitely NOT white hot right now?

If the Cubs beat said white hot team while on the road, would you want to face them?

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, bm1090 said:

Yep. And they averaged 5.6 runs per game in September. They're on fire. Their offense is hot and obviously they have the bullpen. Not like their top few starters are bad either.

41-18 since July 23rd. Give me the Cubs all day.

 

Isn’t it cherry picking to look at anything other than the full season?

Thats what I am told when I start a statement of fact with “since”.

Seriously, there have been discussions every year about whether being hot to end the regular season is predictive of how a team will perform in the playoffs and the conclusion seems to be that the results are mixed.

I tend to ignore regular season head to head results because those games might have been played with significantly different rosters and pitching matchups than you’ll see in the playoffs. 

[Brewcrew82]

44 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Right. But the question isn't can we beat the Padres, it's would you rather face the other white hot team, or a different team that's definitely NOT white hot right now?

I guess my point was the Brewers have been the hottest team in baseball virtually the entire season, and it doesn't particularly matter who they face at this point. If the Brewers play their game, they should beat anyone with the exception of maybe the Dodgers. 

[sobomp3]

39 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Isn’t it cherry picking to look at anything other than the full season?

Thats what I am told when I start a statement of fact with “since”.

Seriously, there have been discussions every year about whether being hot to end the regular season is predictive of how a team will perform in the playoffs and the conclusion seems to be that the results are mixed.

I tend to ignore regular season head to head results because those games might have been played with significantly different rosters and pitching matchups than you’ll see in the playoffs. 

That isn't "cherry picking" or "being hot to end the regular season". That's a third of a season sample size. I'll take the Cubs!

[StearnsFTW]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Fearsome Padres Pen
683 IP of 88 ERA- (7th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | +6.28 WPA (7th)

Brewers Pen (constantly mismanaged & overworked by Murphy per the IGTs)
640 IP of 82 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (4th) | +9.56 WPA (2nd)
 

Just think if they had a competent manager........they might have won.........I don't know......103 games!

 

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Seriously, there have been discussions every year about whether being hot to end the regular season is predictive of how a team will perform in the playoffs and the conclusion seems to be that the results are mixed.

I agree, and I think the same thing could be said about which team is preferable to play in the post-season. I'm guilty of it, and I think most wanted the Nats in 19, the Braves in 21, and the Dbacks in 23. I'm not sure if fans preferred the Mets in 24, but I think that we liked the fact that the Mets and Braves had to play a doubleheader on the Monday after the end of the regular season because of Hurricane Helene. That didn't work, either.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I want the Padres, but after a long, bullpen-taxing 3 game wild card series with the Cubs so it takes them a couple games to get the back end of their bullpen locked and loaded.

I know the Cubs are the weakest team going right now, but with how fickle the playoffs are I don't want to give them a shot to knock the Brewers out in a best of 5 if the Brewers offense sputters and the Cubs find a way to rake, plus get some favorable hitters weather in Wrigley that can negate Milwaukee's significant pitching advantage.

Also, I'm sick of facing the Cubs - give me the Padres then the Dodgers on the way to the World Series - if this is their year it won't matter who they're facing!

[Team Canada]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

If the Cubs beat said white hot team while on the road, would you want to face them?

Of course. That was a 3 game sample size, vs the Padres being on fire for months.

[adambr2]

Those of you who wanted the Padres, you may very well get your wish. 

They may very well be 20-3 in their last 23 games when they get here. I hope it doesn’t end up being a “careful what you wish for” situation. 

[bm1090]

We can beat them, but it’s going to be a battle.

the Cubs are not built for it.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I have my disagreements with Murphy during the season, but man, I don't miss the playoff Counsell experience. He tightens up and so does his team. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

21 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Those of you who wanted the Padres, you may very well get your wish. 

They may very well be 20-3 in their last 23 games when they get here. I hope it doesn’t end up being a “careful what you wish for” situation. 

I don't think anyone is wishing for anything.

Most of us recognize that anyone can beat anyone in the playoffs. If anyone is expecting to get the Padres and dominate them, that person is nuts.

The same is true for anyone hoping for the Cubs. We don't know what's coming! It's sports!

I also don't think anything that happens in this series should alter anyone's preferences. Two (or three, and all these series restart tomorrow no matter what happens today) games don't matter and six innings definitely don't.

[Just Some Guy]

Standing ovation, Michael King.

-- oops, wrong thread

[bm1090]

11 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I don't think anyone is wishing for anything.

Most of us recognize that anyone can beat anyone in the playoffs. If anyone is expecting to get the Padres and dominate them, that person is nuts.

The same is true for anyone hoping for the Cubs. We don't know what's coming! It's sports!

I also don't think anything that happens in this series should alter anyone's preferences. Two (or three, and all these series restart tomorrow no matter what happens today) games don't matter and six innings definitely don't.

I think you’re underestimating the psychology of playoff baseball. The Padres have full belief they can win it all right now. The cubs don’t.

[Opening Day]

45 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Those of you who wanted the Padres, you may very well get your wish. 

They may very well be 20-3 in their last 23 games when they get here. I hope it doesn’t end up being a “careful what you wish for” situation. 

I said Padres, and yes this game is making me rethink that.  I'd change my answer to Cubs right now.  However, if the ultimate goal is to win the WS, you have to be able to beat the Padres (or any other team).  So bring it on.  It is what it is, no easy opponents in October, or hopefully November.

[Opening Day]

30 minutes ago, Marc Newfield of Dreams said:

I have my disagreements with Murphy during the season, but man, I don't miss the playoff Counsell experience. He tightens up and so does his team. 

He tightens up in the regular season too.  Look at him during the last Brewers series.  He was an emotional wreck.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

I said Padres, and yes this game is making me rethink that.  I'd change my answer to Cubs right now.  However, if the ultimate goal is to win the WS, you have to be able to beat the Padres (or any other team).  So bring it on.  It is what it is, no easy opponents in October, or hopefully November.

Yeah if you can't beat the Padres then you were going to stand no chance against the Dodgers so it never really meant much to me.