Padres (Ray) vs Brewers (Misiorowski): 10/3/26, 7:30pm

[adambr2]

Just now, owbc said:

The trajectory of a ball hit that high is basically straight down from the apex. And hitting the roof pushed it forward if you watch the replay closely 

How did hitting the roof assist it forward ??

Also, why does it matter ? It’s an out, no matter the hypotheticals. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

This was probably addressed, but at no time was there any drama for anyone who knows the ground rules at AmFam. Did anyone notice Murphy in the dugout when the umps gathered? He had a totally calm look on his face. That's always ruled to be the result of the play---falling in safely, catch, whatever---unless it's deemed to be foul, which it pretty clearly was not. I saw the same thing happen in game 4 vs Philly in '08, except IIRC that one only hit a wire.

Otherwise it was a fun role-reversal. SD drew walks, put pressure on our pitching, forced a miscue or two, had runners on base all night while we played caveman ball & hit a couple out. Not a lot going offensively but we didn't exactly have a ton of batted-ball luck either so I'll gladly take the weirdness of the 9th inning. Thought Lara would look overmatched at the plate in his 1st playoff game while Pratt would resemble a veteran. The reverse was true.

After the two walks, I thought Murphy showed some real pumpkins staying with Hall until the Tatis AB. Hall reverted a little to April-May DL but then reaffirmed. nice work.

Only got 4 out of Misiorowski & still won. That would've attracted some handsome odds.

[82brewcrew82]

Even the Padres manager admitted he knew it was an out.

[dlk9s]

Megill wasn't totally sharp, but boy, he really took it to the Padres' two big boys.

[owbc]

Just now, adambr2 said:

How did hitting the roof assist it forward ??

Also, why does it matter ? It’s an out, no matter the hypotheticals. 

It’s fun to think about. 

It reminds me of the Cal Raleigh HR from game 5 of the ALCS last year. That one was 43 degrees

[trwi7]

5 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

A ball caught right here that hit the roof is not staying in play. 

Like that other video shows, the ball didn't hit the roof and drop straight down.  If that ball is still going up, it's losing momentum and not carrying as far,  I'll take the side of a ball never being hit at that velocity and that launch angle ever going for a home run.

[liveforoctober]

Just now, 82brewcrew82 said:

Even the Padres manager admitted he knew it was an out.

His general calmness during the whole thing made me feel more than confident it was going to stay an out.

[BrewerFan]

3 minutes ago, yourout said:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=X-ofZJt2Mbg

LOL... what PCA thought was going to happen to him LAST year!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

How did hitting the roof assist it forward ??

Also, why does it matter ? It’s an out, no matter the hypotheticals. 

Statcast saying it's a home run in only one park. Announcers really exaggerated it. It bounced off the cable or whatever, and the ricochet sent it toward the fence. It may have gone over anyway, I don't know, but this already circulating mantra that it was going to be the longest home run ever recorded is hyperbolic nonsense. Nothing that high goes that far. 

[82brewcrew82]

Good point by Jeter, don't leave a dozen guys on base and the roof isn't an issue.

[BruisedCrew]

2 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

His general calmness during the whole thing made me feel more than confident it was going to stay an out.

It was never going to be a home run. The only question might have been whether it hit the roof in foul territory and then a foul ball instead of an out.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

LOL... what PCA thought was going to happen to him LAST year!

Great point. If he was playing LF for the Brewers tonite, he would've leapt up & caught it BEFORE it hit the roof.🤩

[MrTPlush]

Just now, trwi7 said:

Like that other video shows, the ball didn't hit the roof and drop straight down.  If that ball is still going up, it's losing momentum and not carrying as far,  I'll take the side of a ball never being hit at that velocity and that launch angle ever going for a home run.

What is the sample size we are using?

As any baseball fan would know, you can use any combination of stats to make a 1st. And those other situations…were the conditions the same? Or was the wind blowing in at 15mph?

I don’t know how to take ‘never happened to be a HR before’ without knowing if we are talking 3 examples prior or 100+

[willie key]

I am not going to make it through these games.     Cripes!

[RobertCrawley]

IGT has hit page 47 and is still climbing.

[RobertCrawley]

Just now, willie key said:

I am not going to make it through these games.     Cripes!

Cripes sake!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Some thoughts as I calm myself down.

1) The roof will be a story. Who the hell knows? I thought, off the bat, "no way that stays fair." But it made me nervous. I'll trust the Statcast figures. It doesn't matter in the end. The Padres had chances and couldn't get it done. Credit to the bullpen. Everyone contributed. Special star to Ashby for making things slightly less stressful. 

2) Speaking of stress, I think that was the most stressful playoff game I've seen. Maybe Game 4 in LA in 2018? Maybe 2019? 2011 Game 5? Okay, those two have the edge because of the higher stakes. But this felt more intense than Game 5 against the Cubs, probably because of all the baserunners. I'll call it the second most stressful non-elimination game I've ever seen. I know that sounds like a dumb label, but crap. I was stressed. And I was zen until like 4 minutes prior to first pitch.

3) I actually thought the Padres got the better of the umpiring. Mitchell and Ortiz both failed to challenge high strikes and had two borderline check swing calls go their way. Obviously, the rafter will overshadow that, but I think it's true. The home plate umpiring was pretty good overall.

4) This bullpen felt like it heard everyone talking about the Padres and decided to make a few things clear. We really saw different roster construction philosophies. San Diego used all their best non-Miller arms (Morejon threw 30 pitches), and they don't have a ton of cover after a 7-out start from Ray. We'll see if that hurts them. They weren't able to cash the extra offensive flexibility with the barrage of PRs and PHs in the 8th. Only 11 pitchers might be an issue if they can't get length from King and Pivetta.

5) Credit to the Padres for taking the right approach against Mis. It pains me to give AJ Pierz any credit at all (I have always hated his commentary style), but he was right about the cutters.

6) The Yelich AB with the bases loaded was maybe the biggest one of the game in terms of adding to the stress. It's hard to blame him too much. He had an opposite field approach and tried to get the first pitch in the air. Just didn't work out. I imagine he was crushed in the thread (I can't read these during playoff games--they're hard enough as it is), but really not much to do there. San Diego had excellent positioning all night, and it paid off there too.

7) Murphy pushed the right buttons tonight. I had two concerns. First, I thought he left Hall in one batter too long, but it worked out and maybe saved Megill some bullets for Machado. Second, I was 60-40 in favor of bringing in Romero for Merrill. It worked out, but that ball was smoked.

8) I thought Lara put up some good ABs tonight. Not much to show for it, but he did fine. Pratt was more mixed at the plate. His late AB was real bad. His first was quite good. Glad those guys got the first playoff appearances under their belts.

9) Finally, I think this does take a little pressure off tomorrow. Obviously, you'd much rather be up 2-0. But you really needed to get this one with Miz on the hill. Now, again, the Brewers will have the better starter by overall numbers, and San Diego is going to have to manage a tired bullpen. I doubt they'll have a real quick hook on King, so I think it's a much more "win our way" situation at first pitch.

I think I'm 10 percent calmer now.

[adambr2]

I’m not a psychics major, so I don’t really know. 🤷‍♂️

We won 3-2 and that’s good enough for me. Anything else is speculation. 

[willie key]

If the padres don’t want to worry about a roof then win 103 games and get home field.   

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

IGT has hit page 47 and is still climbing.

So it's going to drop straight down from here!

[BruisedCrew]

Pulling out the win is going to make going to tomorrow’s game a lot more enjoyable.

i’m not going to go through the whole game thread to see if someone else has already made this point.

Unless I’m missing something, in the four playoff games today, all of the runs scored were produced by home runs, except forone of the runs by the White Sox, and the two scored by the Padres. 

[adambr2]

5 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Statcast saying it's a home run in only one park. Announcers really exaggerated it. It bounced off the cable or whatever, and the ricochet sent it toward the fence. It may have gone over anyway, I don't know, but this already circulating mantra that it was going to be the longest home run ever recorded is hyperbolic nonsense. Nothing that high goes that far. 

The announcers definitely embellished and kind of went way outside of their lane in both their knowledge of physics and ground rules. 

I’ve never seen a ball hit that high at MP/AmFam, I’ll say that much though. 

[ImissDougMelvin]

 

[yourout]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

The announcers definitely embellished and kind of went way outside of their lane in both their knowledge of physics and ground rules. 

I’ve never seen a ball hit that high at MP/AmFam, I’ll say that much though. 

I was at a game that Corey Hart hit one that went up between the wires and left the yard very easily. Cleared the Brewer bullpen with ease

[LouisEly]

For a ball to go that high, it has to have a lot of backspin on it.  With that much backspin hit that high, it's going to come down sharply.  That's why Statcast has it as not a HR in AFF.