Padres (Pivetta) vs Brewers (May): 10/6/26, 8:30pm

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

33 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

They literally didn’t use their best reliever and their best lefty reliever. 

They have plenty more to throw at us for a Game 4. It’s not like they are in danger of running out of pitching. 

I don't think this is wrong, but they only have 11 pitchers on the roster. Morejon seems to have some shoulder issues. Miller is always going to be terrifying.

I think the point is this: Unless the Padres are planning to get 12 outs from Morejon and Miller, they're going to have rely on BOTH mediocre starters (who are perfectly capable of dominating) AND guys like Matsui, Adam, and Rodriguez, all of whom have thrown a TON. Even if they DO get 12 outs from those two, that's still 15 for either mediocre guys or guys we've seen over and over. It's tough.

Miller going on paternity while the Padres won was potentially a blessing for them, on balance (though King's availability in any Game 5 is now going to be limited because he's a starter who's thrown 112 pitches in the last three days, and 209 in the last eight). If the Padres are going to win this series, they're going to need a lot of outs from the non-elite portions of their staff. From an availability perspective, I'd just much rather be us. 

[wntrtxn21]

With the uncharacteristicly bad defense and key hitters coming up missing, it amazing Milwaukee still is in the series.  Pratt's eractic miscues have been costly. His infield teammates have also been weak at times. They can't keep giving runs away with what should be a strong part of their game. To many hitters in the lineup aren't putting up competitive ABs.. Bauers, Turang, and Mitchell have been terrible. The three together are 5 for 33 with 15 Ks and no RBIs. (Bauers 2 for 11 with 6 Ks and no RBIs. Turang 1 for 11 with 3 Ks and no RBIs. Mitchell 2 for 11 with 6 Ks and no RBIs.) The great thing is that even with the bad defense and lack of hitting by key players, the Crew is still leading in the series. If they really tighten up the defense and get the bats going, they can win and move on. This is the year the mighty Dodgers are beatable! The W.S. is definitely there for the taking. 

[Bulldogboy]

Hopefully the manager doesn't waste 2 of the top 4 spots in the lineup on Turang and Bauers. Hell at this point bat Yelich 2 while he's hitting. Vaughn should play and so should Lara for Mitchell. Keeping Lockridge on the roster would have given you another option against watching Mitchell against lefties. 

[Brewcrew82]

Jackson Chourio with a .575 xwOBA in this series but with only a .262 wOBA to show.

Can't take much more of this man. 

[RobertCrawley]

We haven't had a good blowout win lately. I'm looking for that tonight.

[Outlander]

4 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

We haven't had a good blowout win lately. I'm looking for that tonight.

These games have been too close, I agree game 4 has the makings of a blowout but could be either side.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, Outlander said:

These games have been too close, I agree game 4 has the makings of a blowout but could be either side.

What I wouldn't give for a solid, boring 8-1 win tonight ...

[Yaz]

The thing that IRRITATES me so far is GARRETT MITCHELL and his penchant for getting ahead in the count but then looking at STRIKE 3 on very hittable pitches.  And it has happened multiple times during this series.  It was already old during the regular season.  

Murphy and the 'hitting coordinators' need to sit down with him.  I know.  LOL.

[adambr2]

7 minutes ago, Yaz said:

The thing that IRRITATES me so far is GARRETT MITCHELL and his penchant for getting ahead in the count but then looking at STRIKE 3 on very hittable pitches.  And it has happened multiple times during this series.  It was already old during the regular season.  

Murphy and the 'hitting coordinators' need to sit down with him.  I know.  LOL.

Mitchell has had a very bad series. No doubt. I don’t know if he should start tonight because right now he’s not close. Its not like he’s having bad luck.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9pm start seems insane to me. I can't believe that 8pm would be that much worse for TV.

[owbc]

9 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

9pm start seems insane to me. I can't believe that 8pm would be that much worse for TV.

I'll be at the game tonight in SD and I'm annoyed at the 7 PM start. It's not going to be over until 10:30 PT. 

[owbc]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Meh, I think we all know deep down it’s a 50/50 coin flip again tonight that no one can really say with extreme confidence that they’d be surprised at any result. 

We have no idea if it will be Buehler, Gasser, or Patrick getting lit up tonight. Or none of them. Or all of them. 

But I don’t really get the implication that anything the Padres did in Game 3 somehow puts them at a relative disadvantage in Game 4.

The Padres have been slowly putting themselves at a disadvantage since game 1. They are managing the DS like it's game 7 of the World Series. 

You can't ask a shortened bullpen to cover 5+ innings/night for this long. It's going to blow up on them. I don't think they can hang on for 18 more innings unless one of the guys they have been saving comes in and plays hero. 

[TURBO]

14 hours ago, Branyanisthegoat said:

Looks like May is here for a good time, not a long time tonight.

A little TROOPER flavor there?

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, owbc said:

The Padres have been slowly putting themselves at a disadvantage since game 1. They are managing the DS like it's game 7 of the World Series. 

You can't ask a shortened bullpen to cover 5+ innings/night for this long. It's going to blow up on them. I don't think they can hang on for 18 more innings unless one of the guys they have been saving comes in and plays hero. 

I mean it’s not like we have been getting tremendous length, either, Miz went 4, Henderson 5, May 3.

I think they have been managing like a team who also had to play in the WC round before this and was facing elimination yesterday. As they should. 

Ultimately I don’t know if it makes a big difference either for or against us. There’s absolutely a nonzero chance that Walker Buehler goes 6 or 7 tonight, and then they’re all hands on deck for Friday after a day off tomorrow. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wntrtxn21 said:

With the uncharacteristicly bad defense and key hitters coming up missing, it amazing Milwaukee still is in the series.  Pratt's eractic miscues have been costly. His infield teammates have also been weak at times. They can't keep giving runs away with what should be a strong part of their game. To many hitters in the lineup aren't putting up competitive ABs.. Bauers, Turang, and Mitchell have been terrible. The three together are 5 for 33 with 15 Ks and no RBIs. (Bauers 2 for 11 with 6 Ks and no RBIs. Turang 1 for 11 with 3 Ks and no RBIs. Mitchell 2 for 11 with 6 Ks and no RBIs.) The great thing is that even with the bad defense and lack of hitting by key players, the Crew is still leading in the series. If they really tighten up the defense and get the bats going, they can win and move on. This is the year the mighty Dodgers are beatable! The W.S. is definitely there for the taking. 

Isn't playoff baseball about which team makes the fewest? 

I would say the the deeper the Padres go to their reserves the better the odds those players will make a mistake, 

The Brewers infield hasn’t played very well in this Series and needs to pick it up if they’re going to avoid a Game 5. 

[Jopal78]

19 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean it’s not like we have been getting tremendous length, either, Miz went 4, Henderson 5, May 3.

I think they have been managing like a team who also had to play in the WC round before this and was facing elimination yesterday. As they should. 

Ultimately I don’t know if it makes a big difference either for or against us. There’s absolutely a nonzero chance that Walker Buehler goes 6 or 7 tonight, and then they’re all hands on deck for Friday after a day off tomorrow. 

Buehler has actually been pretty tough on the Brewers in his career (Brewers hitting under .200 against him  for his career.). 
 

When they beat him in the 2018 NLCS, he didn’t pitch poorly (7IP 6H, 4ER, 1BB, 8K), the Dodgers didn’t score on offense. 
 

Outside of King and Miller, he’s the Padres pitcher who scares me the most, because if he can command his breaking stuff to consistently stay ahead in the count, he won’t have to throw his hittable fastball much and will quietly throw 6 innings 
 

 

 

[owbc]

20 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean it’s not like we have been getting tremendous length, either, Miz went 4, Henderson 5, May 3.

I think they have been managing like a team who also had to play in the WC round before this and was facing elimination yesterday. As they should. 

Ultimately I don’t know if it makes a big difference either for or against us. There’s absolutely a nonzero chance that Walker Buehler goes 6 or 7 tonight, and then they’re all hands on deck for Friday after a day off tomorrow. 

If a guy with a 4.63 regular season ERA magically goes 6-7 innings in a must-win postseason game, that would definitely change the narrative. 

I wouldn't bet on it.

[RobertCrawley]

4 minutes ago, owbc said:

If a guy with a 4.63 regular season ERA magically goes 6-7 innings in a must-win postseason game, that would definitely change the narrative. 

I wouldn't bet on it.

I expect us to put some serious pressure on Ferris.

[bm1090]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

9pm start seems insane to me. I can't believe that 8pm would be that much worse for TV.

4 games though and first one starts at 3 PM, tough to have the latest one at 8 without it becoming too overlapped.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 minute ago, owbc said:

If a guy with a 4.63 regular season ERA magically goes 6-7 innings in a must-win postseason game, that would definitely change the narrative. 

I wouldn't bet on it.

I think I'd say that even if Buehler does go 6-7, the Padres will still need MORE depth pitching in Game 5 to take the series.

The more I sit with it, the more I just get okay with "this is what it takes to advance in the playoffs." We're in a position right now where we have to win one of two, taking a whole lot of ABs against the 8th through 11th best pitchers on an 11-man roster. The Brewers whole philosophy involves winning with pitching depth. In that sense, these next two games will play to our strengths and Mis and Henderson potentially both available for an elimination game is a bonus. 

Anything can happen. We all know this. But I'm getting comfortable with three things. 1) being up 2-1 after these three games is probably the most we could've asked for given how everything played out, 2) if we lose the series, it'll be because they Padres outplayed us, even from a position of weakness, and 3) this has been an incredible series of playoff baseball that showcases the absolute peak of October intensity. We've earned being a part of it, and I'm trying to appreciate it in spite of the terror it involves.

[Samurai Bucky]

Chourio and Contreras get into trouble when they get pull happy.  Yesterday, they seemed to be pull happy.

Go with the pitch.  Square it up.

[adambr2]

If Yelich’s rocket finds a hole in the 9th last night, we might have already swept. 

If Cronenworth is able to play Jackson’s rocket in the 9th in Game 2 and France’s blast creeps over the LF wall in fair territory in Game 1, we might have already been swept. 

Really been a series of inches, 

[Jopal78]

35 minutes ago, owbc said:

If a guy with a 4.63 regular season ERA magically goes 6-7 innings in a must-win postseason game, that would definitely change the narrative. 

I wouldn't bet on it.

I guess I would say Buehler is a lot  like those old beer commercials: he doesn’t always get hit, but when he does, he gets shellacked. 
 

Buehler had a couple of blow up starts in July (2GS, 9IP, 16 ER) that covered up the fact he was pretty consistent in keeping the Padres in games in 2026.
 

 10 of 32 starts he allowed 1 or fewer runs,

2 or fewer runs allowed in 20 of 32 starts,

3 runs or fewer in 28 of 32 starts. 

[owbc]

6 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

If Yelich’s rocket finds a hole in the 9th last night, we might have already swept. 

If Cronenworth is able to play Jackson’s rocket in the 9th in Game 2 and France’s blast creeps over the LF wall in fair territory in Game 1, we might have already been swept. 

Really been a series of inches, 

There have been so many consequential plays in every game. But statistically we're basically where we should be. 

Here's how the deserve-to-win meter has it:

G1: Brewers 89%, Padres 6%, Tie: 5%
G2: Brewers 42%, Padres 42%, Tie: 16%
G3: Brewers 54%, Padres 32%, Tie 15%

Which results in the following likelihoods:

Milwaukee Brewers Record	San Diego Padres Record	Probability
2W - 1L	1W - 2L	48.82%
3W - 0L	0W - 3L	28.14%
1W - 2L	2W - 1L	22.36%
0W - 3L	3W - 0L	1.68%

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I guess I would say Buehler is a lot  like those old beer commercials: he doesn’t always get hit, but when he does, he gets shellacked. 
 

Buehler had a couple of blow up starts in July (2GS, 9IP, 16 ER) that covered up the fact he was pretty consistent in keeping the Padres in games in 2026.
 

 10 of 32 starts he allowed 1 or fewer runs,

2 or fewer runs allowed in 20 of 32 starts,

3 runs or fewer in 28 of 32 starts. 

Good stuff.

Home run ball has hurt him lately. He hasn't given up a ton of runs in any of his last 7 starts, but he's given up runs in each of them. He's also allowed 8 homers in that time.

Interestingly, the distance between Walker Buehler and Dustin May is....non-existent. You could certainly argue May has better stuff. The Padres are starting Buehler because their only other viable option is Robbie Ray on short rest. The guy could crush us! They don't play games in the simulator. All the caveats about randomness apply. Bottom line, though:

If you can't beat this version of Walker Buehler, while your two most consistent relievers are fresh and your third-best starter down the stretch can throw multiple innings, you probably deserve to be playing a terrifying elimination game.