Bauers to Red Sox 4/58M

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean, you could have the same regression concerns for Bauers.

I think the fact that Bauers was willing to take 14.5M on a AAV basis to get 4 years rather than 23.5M to get 1 year would tell you that Jake Bauers himself doesn’t expect that contract to age all that well. 

No, I frankly don’t have the same regression concerns this year for someone who had the metrics of one of the best hitters in baseball. 

Some regression? Maybe. The same as Vaughn? No way.

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Because Jake Bauers had the metrics of one of the best hitters in baseball this year.

Teams pay based on future production not on past production, Which is why metrics and projections are especially relevant.

Nothing about pre-2026 Jake Bauers indicated that a breakout like this was coming in 2026. 

Also, teams absolutely pay for past production knowing contracts won’t age well. Sometimes it’s a necessary evil of the business. We are doing it right now with Christian Yelich. I think the smart people in the room in Milwaukee knew in 2020 that Christian Yelich was not going to be worth 26 million dollars in 2027.

[wallus]

If the Brewers do not believe Vaughn's power will be back, I could definitely see them moving on.

[BrewCrew8675309]

5 hours ago, Outlander said:

This is why Tyler Black is still on the 40 man, even though he is strong side platoon I imagine Vaughn is pretty much the every day starter with Black on the bench and eventually one of Burke/Fischer come up like Lara and Cooper did last season. Not sure what they do with Adams, would have been a good option with Bauers on the team but not so much with Vaughn.

Not sure what they do with Adams? The guy who out hit Black in the minors who also needs a place on the 40 man and cost wayyy less, A vote for Black is essentially a vote to go with Adams and save the 9mil-ish for all our arbitration cases.  

[adambr2]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No, I frankly don’t have the same regression concerns this year for someone who had the metrics of one of the best hitters in baseball. 

Some regression? Maybe. The same as Vaughn? No way.

It’s possible, but I think it’s worth mentioning that expected statistics aren’t literal measurements of luck and we should be careful about interpreting them for more than just one piece of the information.

Expected statistics don’t capture every aspect of hitting, and some players often consistently outperform expectations with skills that aren’t fully captured by metrics. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Nothing about pre-2026 Jake Bauers indicated that a breakout like this was coming in 2026. 

Also, teams absolutely pay for past production knowing contracts won’t age well. Sometimes it’s a necessary evil of the business. We are doing it right now with Christian Yelich. I think the smart people in the room in Milwaukee knew in 2020 that Christian Yelich was not going to be worth 26 million dollars in 2027.

This is not true. There were definitely indications that a breakout was coming for Bauers, particularly once he got off the IL in the second half of 2025.

Jack and Spencer on the Brewer Fanatic Podcast were all over it. 

[BrewCrew8675309]

4 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

I would be interested in seeing Yelich with a mitt in spring to open up some dh ab.

He def came up as a 1B but has shown NO interest in ruining his bac...err...playing 1B. But I am 100 with you as the DH position allows our field players a rest day while adding their bat...oh well..

[adambr2]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is not true. There were definitely indications that a breakout was coming for Bauers, particularly once he got off the IL in the second half of 2025.

Jack and Spencer on the Brewer Fanatic Podcast were all over it. 

Some improvement? Yes.

Was there one projection model out there that anticipated the season he had? Not a chance. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Some improvement? Yes.

Was there one projection model out there that anticipated the season he had? Not a chance. 

You said there were no pre-2026 indications of Bauers’ breakout when there definitely were. Between Bauers breaking out from the left side and Vaughn from the right side, a lot was pointing towards the Brewers having some of the best 1B production in baseball this year. Even if not quite to the extent that ended up occurring where they got literally the best production. 

Now you’re just getting Vaughn from the right side with the metrics indicating a clear overperformance this past season and Steamer and ZiPS projecting worse production than Luke Adams who would make $9M less.

Like I said, maybe they believe in Vaughn recovering from his hammate, but I’m not convinced at $10 million after how they handled him this year. 

[adambr2]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You said there were no pre-2026 indications of Bauers’ breakout when there definitely were. Between Bauers breaking out from the left side and Vaughn from the right side, a lot was pointing towards the Brewers having some of the best 1B production in baseball this year. Even if not quite to the extent that ended up occurring where they got literally the best production. 

Now you’re just getting Vaughn from the right side with the metrics indicating a clear overperformance this past season and Steamer and ZiPS projecting worse production than Luke Adams who would make $9M less.

Like I said, maybe they believe in Vaughn recovering from his hammate, but I’m not convinced at $10 million after how they handled him this year. 

10M is just not much in MLB these days. 

Vaughn could totally flop and be replaced midseason and the 10M is pretty much a shrug off. 

I think you could argue that 22M wasn’t a great investment in Woodruff even without the benefit of hindsight. So I wouldn’t necessarily presume to guess right now what they might be thinking of Vaughn and his future. I don’t think 10M for him is unreasonable, however. 

[willie key]

52 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

10M is just not much in MLB these days. 

Vaughn could totally flop and be replaced midseason and the 10M is pretty much a shrug off. 

I think you could argue that 22M wasn’t a great investment in Woodruff even without the benefit of hindsight. So I wouldn’t necessarily presume to guess right now what they might be thinking of Vaughn and his future. I don’t think 10M for him is unreasonable, however. 

If Bauers was worth 23 million to the brewers this year than Vaughn is worth 10 million 

[HarveysWBs]

This hurts mostly because of the innate desire we all have to encase this magical team in amber and preserve it forever. I get it, and I feel it, too.

But we can’t go back. We can watch the replays forever (I know I will, and Jake’s marathon ABs will get as much burn as anything else in my house). But there is no turning back the clock. The 2027 Brewers will have to stand on their own merits, and the brass is more than smart enough to understand that it doesn’t make sense to delay the youth movement at the corner infield spots any longer than absolutely necessary. Once the kids are ready, it’s a whole heck of a lot easier to move on from Vaughn/Black than it would be four years of Bauers.

Setting aside the glue factory (er, I mean, thoroughly-discussed topic) that is MLB’s competitive balance, this was still the smart move. I feel confident the Brewers will get better productivity out of the other 1B options in the system over the next four years than what Jake will produce in that time.

[Matt]

I'm very excited to watch Adams in Milwaukee next season.

[da swedish german]

i'll miss Bauers, but am very happy for him.

remember like 20-35 years ago when it felt like a lot more of the superstars were 1st basemen? maybe that's just who I idolized because I was one.

i think i'd have trouble naming half of them today

[ErnieRilesBrianGiles]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Now you’re just getting Vaughn from the right side with the metrics indicating a clear overperformance this past season and Steamer and ZiPS projecting worse production than Luke Adams who would make $9M less.

Like I said, maybe they believe in Vaughn recovering from his hammate, but I’m not convinced at $10 million after how they handled him this year. 

I agree, it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers move on from Vaughn and bring in a short term stop gap like they have for years...Thames, Aguilar, Smoak, Vogelbach, Tellez, Hoskins, Bauers. But here's a few reasons I'm optimistic Vaughn is back in 2027:

1) When the Brewers have brought in short term stop gaps that were younger/cheaper/more control (Thames, Aguilar, Vogelbach, Tellez, Bauers), they had no minor league prospects waiting in the wings. This year they have plenty, so I don't see them looking for a cheaper "diamond in the rough."

2) When the Brewers have brought in short term stop gaps that were older/more expensive/less control (Avisail Garcia, Renfroe, Hoskins, Winker), they've been okay paying $8-12 million. Vaughn fits right in that range, and I don't see any of the first basemen free agents providing any more value.

3) I think it's a bit disingenuous to point to Luke Adams' Steamer 760 OPS batting line, as he's only projected to play 3 games. Luis Lara had a 640 OPS, AJ Ewing and JJ Wetherholt a 700 OPS, Cooper Pratt a 720 OPS, Carson Benge and Sal Stewart a 780 OPS in their rookie year, Is it really likely that Luke Adams will put up rookie of the year numbers over a full season?

4) This quote from Trueblood's article has me the most optimistic: 

"Yeah, he's a really good player and certainly talented and contributed, you know, beyond our expectations," Arnold said of Vaughn. "I mean, he just, he came in and did a fantastic job for us. Murph is right about him being the right kind of guy, and certainly talented and a guy that meant a lot to our team. So, yeah, I think he's a really important part of this."

[Opening Day]

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Did not have a good World Series. But great in the NLCS. 

He almost single-handedly broke two starters in a 4 game NLCS.  Will always love Bauer for that, and will cheer him always (assuming he never wears a Cardinals/Cubs uniform).  But give me the 1st round pick, and let Burke, Fischer, and Black compete for the left side of that platoon before locking up a 35 year old Jake Bauers.

[Opening Day]

5 hours ago, wallus said:

Mitchell isn't going to DH guys.....

I could see  scenario where Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, and Chourio all play on the same day.  One of them has to DH.

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

I could see  scenario where Mitchell, Lara, Frelick, and Chourio all play on the same day.  One of them has to DH.

A very rare scenario is much different than implying a more permanent position

[MrTPlush]

8 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

I would be interested in seeing Yelich with a mitt in spring to open up some dh ab.

How about Yelich just plays less if he is old and doesn’t hit very well? If he is a sub .700 OPS again he can just ride the pine more often. He is probably too fragile to be playing in the field at this point and I doubt the defense would even be good. We don’t need to be finding ways to play a sub .700 OPS bat every day.

[Yaz]

9 hours ago, treego14 said:

It was a boycott of wasting my time online for a rigged league!

Glad you are back.   Pro sports in general is getting out of hand.  It all started the late 80's when the top players started making over $3 million a year..   The money is disgusting.

I am hoping for a lockout / strike in 2027 in MLB.   I remember back in the early 90's everyday joe's were ticked off and expressing their displeasure.  $3 million is still an inordinate amount of money and if properly handled can last a family a lifetime with plenty leftover for inheritance to their future children.    Now, no one questions the ridiculous salaries, and if someone does (like I am right now) they get denigrated.   Never understood this at all.  

Seems like a mid-season IGT.   

[AKCheesehead]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

How about Yelich just plays less if he is old and doesn’t hit very well? If he is a sub .700 OPS again he can just ride the pine more often. He is probably too fragile to be playing in the field at this point and I doubt the defense would even be good. We don’t need to be finding ways to play a sub .700 OPS bat every day.

I agree mostly but of course context matters. For example he gets off to a cold start in April, half of May? Sucks but it’s Yelich can’t just give up yet. Then sub .700 but trending up and smoking the ball? I don’t know what it’ll be but he’s not that old,still in good shape, still a really good hitter and athlete. No guarantees of anything including a steady downswing just yet. 

[thebruce44]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Count me as not convinced Vaughn will be the primary first baseman. 

Why? When healthy for the Brewers he's mashed. What do you know otherwise?

[adambr2]

4 hours ago, Yaz said:

Glad you are back.   Pro sports in general is getting out of hand.  It all started the late 80's when the top players started making over $3 million a year..   The money is disgusting.

I am hoping for a lockout / strike in 2027 in MLB.   I remember back in the early 90's everyday joe's were ticked off and expressing their displeasure.  $3 million is still an inordinate amount of money and if properly handled can last a family a lifetime with plenty leftover for inheritance to their future children.    Now, no one questions the ridiculous salaries, and if someone does (like I am right now) they get denigrated.   Never understood this at all.  

Seems like a mid-season IGT.   

It’s okay to question ridiculous salaries.

When you do, are you also questioning the owners becoming rich far beyond what any player could dream of off of the entertainment provided by the players, or just scoffing at the players for making millions off a game?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

11 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Nothing about pre-2026 Jake Bauers indicated that a breakout like this was coming in 2026. 

Also, teams absolutely pay for past production knowing contracts won’t age well. Sometimes it’s a necessary evil of the business. We are doing it right now with Christian Yelich. I think the smart people in the room in Milwaukee knew in 2020 that Christian Yelich was not going to be worth 26 million dollars in 2027.

Yelich had the physiology of someone you thought might age really well though. He is still in excellent shape, unfortunately just kinda started breaking down soon after his MVPs. I think the thought was $26m might not be so crazy by 2027, which it sort of isn't, but that he'd be more of the .780 ops older guy. I think they envisioned him aging like Braun. 

Until this year, he was having a nice little resurgence.

Unfortunately back problems are no joke and would do a number on anyone's swing.

[Jopal78]

11 hours ago, adambr2 said:

10M is just not much in MLB these days. 

Vaughn could totally flop and be replaced midseason and the 10M is pretty much a shrug off. 

I think you could argue that 22M wasn’t a great investment in Woodruff even without the benefit of hindsight. So I wouldn’t necessarily presume to guess right now what they might be thinking of Vaughn and his future. I don’t think 10M for him is unreasonable, however. 

$10M may not be much across MLB today, but for the Brewers it is a number they do not cross very often. 
 

Since 2023  they have had 5 distinct players who made $10M or more in a season: Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, and Hoskins. 
 

Vaughn’s chances to be with the team in ‘27 are better now than they were, but I still think it’s most likely he gets non-tendered.