sveumrules

If the Brewers are "dumpster divers" and other teams are intentionally acquiring players out of OUR dumpster, does that make them "double dumpster divers" ??

Over the last three years there are 103 players with at least 1,500 PA. Jarren Duran's 121 wRC+ ranks 36th on that list in the same neighborhood as guys like Josh Naylor (124 wRC+), Julio Rodriguez (124 wRC+), William Contreras (124 wRC+), Cody Bellinger (123 wRC+), Alex Bregman (122 wRC+), George Springer (120 wRC+), and Randy Arozarena (120 wRC+). That might qualify as meh offense for some, but looking through the thirty some guys who have hit better over the last three years and I don't think any of them will be available. Duran might end up being the best bat on the trade market. Jarren's +22.7 BsR is 3rd on that same leaderboard between EDLC (+23.5) and Trea Turner (+20.0) so it is elite speed. Looking at 103 outfielders with at least 1,500 innings over the last three years Duran comes in at +27 DRS (10th) and +11 FRV (27th), most of that is in LF (1,933 innings of +17 DRS | +2 FRV), but he has also graded out well in his CF time (1,561 innings of +10 DRS | +8 FRV). He's essentially something like what a healthy Mitchell would look like... Mitchell (443 career PA / 968 innings) 114 wRC+ | +4.8 BsR | +10 DRS | +8 FRV | 3.3 WAR 23-25 Duran (per 443 PA / 968 innings) 121 wRC+ | +5.6 BsR | +7.5 DRS | +3 FRV | 3.3 WAR

Corbin Burnes put up 4.5 rWAR in his lone Baltimore season, Ortiz has put up 4.6 WAR is his two years with the Brewers.

Part of that is the Brewers 1,701 PA with RISP was 2nd most in MLB so everybody on the Brewers came to bat with RISP more frequently than average. Here's a fun (?) fact, hitting primarily ninth in the Brewers order Joey Ortiz had 156 PA with RISP, hitting 2nd/3rd in the Yankees order Aaron Judge had 158 PA with RISP. Ortiz's poor performance with RISP (156 PA of 71 wRC+) was also exasperated by literally every other Brewer regular being above average with RISP...Contreras (188 PA of 125 wRC+), Yelich (178 PA of 130 wRC+), Turang (170 PA of 161 wRC+), Frelick (143 PA of 101 wRC+), Durbin (142 PA of 103 wRC+), Chourio (123 PA of 114 wRC+), Collins (114 PA of 134 wRC+), Hoskins (94 PA of 106 wRC+), and Vaughn (87 PA of 156 wRC+). If it's any consolation, Ortiz's had 237 PA last year with runners on base and hit 283/320/361 (92 wRC+), much better than his 269 PA with the bases empty where he hit 183/238/279 (45 wRC+). It was a similar story for Joey in 2024 too with 228 PA of 126 wRC+ with runners on versus 283 PA of 88 wRC+ with the bases empty. League average wRC+ for runners on versus bases empty was 104 to 96 last year, and 107 to 95 in 2024, so Joey's 109 to 67 split over the last two years is definitely wider than average.

Couple issues going on here. BRef uses DRS for their defensive input and they think Joey cost the Brewers two runs in the field last year. FanGraphs uses a regressed version of FRV which credited Joey with +7.7 runs saved in the field. I think most would agree that FG did a better job of capturing Joey's defensive performance and value than BRef did last year. The other is the size of the player pool. Only 146 players reached 500 PA last year (just under five per team) so it is kind of an accomplishment of its own. With nine teams and thirty lineup spots, being something like the 135th best player puts you right in the middle of the 270 "regular" players needed to field all 30 teams. Lowering the PA threshold to 300 and jumping back over to FanGraphs gets us to 277 players, or just over nine per team, that got the most regular playing time. On that leaderboard Joey's 1.4 WAR puts him in in an eleven way tie for 152nd to 162nd place, or something like the 6th best player on a team if performance was evenly distributed. But from going thru the list above we know that many "ninth best players" on their team don't even reach 300 PA. Many teams have multiple regular lineup holes so their "ninth best player" is a backup or small sample warrior. Widening the scope to the 537 players with at least 50 PA, Joey Ortiz and the other guys with 1.4 WAR slide down a dozen spots to between 164th and 175th on the leaderboard. The WAR range for spots #241 to #270 (the "ninth best players" if performance was evenly distributed) has three guys at 0.8 WAR, twenty one guys at 0.7 WAR, and six guys at 0.6 WAR.

Joey Ortiz was the Brewers worst regular player last year, with his 1.4 WAR ranking 9th on the team. He played enough to barely qualify for the batting title (506 PA), hit really bad (his 67 wRC+ was 266th of 277 players with at least 300 PA), and fielded really well (his +13.9 DEF was 17th of those same 277 players). Joey's +2.5 BsR (46th) was also enough to sneak him just inside the back end of the Top 50 on the bases in a run of consecutive familiar names...Brice Turang (+2.6), Tyrone Taylor (+2.5), Sal Frelick (+2.5), Caleb Durbin (+2.3). But I was curious, how good is your ninth best player supposed to be anyway? So I did some clicking around and below have transcribed all thirty of the ninth best players on every team in MLB for 2025. In parentheses after each team I have included where Oritz's 1.4 WAR would have placed him on that particular team's leaderboard. I also bolded the other playoff teams for reference. Here goes... 30. Owen Miller COL (2nd) 17 PA | 28 wRC+ | +0.9 DEF | 0.0 WAR [yes, this was the Rockies 9th best player this year] 29. Christian Moore LAA (4th) 184 PA | 82 wRC+ | -0.7 DEF | 0.2 WAR [what's that you say, an Angels prospect rushed to the show after only 410 PA in the minors?] 28. Dylan Crews WAS (3rd) 322 PA | 77 wRC+ | -1.6 DEF | 0.2 WAR [#2 overall pick and consensus Top Ten prospect Dylan Crews] 27. Tommy Pham PIT (4th) 449 PA | 94 wRC+ | -6.3 DEF | 0.2 WAR [noted fantasy football commish] 26. Austin Slater CHW (3rd) 135 PA | 100 wRC+ | -1.3 DEF | 0.3 WAR [professional backup / shortside platoon OF with between 104 PA and 325 PA each of the last nine seasons] 25. Freddy Fermin KCR (4th) 208 PA | 79 wRC+ | +3.5 DEF | 0.4 WAR [backup backstop] 24. Brayan Rocchio CLE (4th) 383 PA | 77 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 0.4 WAR [got nine different Top 100 rankings between #47 and #98 before graduating] 23. Christian Koss SFG (5th) 191 PA | 91 wRC+ | -0.6 DEF | 0.5 WAR [had to look this guy up, 12th round minor league grinder 27 year old rookie] 22. Johnny DeLuca TBR (6th) 59 PA | 124 wRC+ | +0.4 DEF | 0.6 WAR [part of the Glasnow to Dodgers deal] 21. Michael Helman TEX (6th) 110 PA | 106 wRC+ | +0.2 DEF | 0.6 WAR [second guy I had to look up, not an heir to the mayonnaise empire from what I can tell] 20. Max Schuemann ATH (7th) 213 PA | 62 wRC+ | +7.4 DEF | 0.6 WAR [only heard of this guy when he was named a GG finalist this year] 19. Bryce Johnson SDP (6th) 84 PA | 135 wRC+ | -0.2 DEF | 0.7 WAR [thought he smoked us this year, but only got two singles in 12 AB, memory is faulty] 18. Miguel Andujar CIN (3rd) 110 PA | 159 wRC+ | -2.7 DEF | 0.7 WAR [small sample warrior] 17. James McCann ARI (6th) 137 PA | 110 wRC+ | +1.3 DEF | 0.7 WAR [another backup backstop] 16. Eugenio Suarez SEA (8th) 220 PA | 91 wRC+ | +1.3 DEF | 0.7 WAR [trade deadline prize] 15. Javier Sanoja MIA (5th) 342 PA | 86 wRC+ | +1.7 DEF | 0.7 WAR [only heard of this guy when he won utility GG this year] 14. Hyesong Kim LAD (8th) 170 PA | 95 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 0.8 WAR [KBO superstar turned Dodgers backup utility guy] 13. Tyrone Taylor NYM (9th) 341 PA | 70 wRC+ | +6.0 DEF | 0.8 WAR [always good to see an old friend again] 12. Lars Nootbar STL (8th) 583 PA | 96 wRC+ | -7.0 DEF | 0.8 WAR [still trying to live up to the name] 11. Ramon Urias BAL (5th) 290 PA | 91 wRC+ | +3.2 DEF | 0.9 WAR [fun Orioles side note, Ortiz had more WAR in 2025 than his more ballyhooed former organization mates Jackson Holliday (1.2), Adley Rutschman (1.2), Colton Cowser (0.6) and Coby Mayo (0.2)] 10. Royce Lewis MIN (6th) 403 PA | 85 wRC+ | +2.0 DEF | 1.0 WAR [#1 overall pick with fifteen different Top 100 rankings including four Top Tens] 09. Cam Smith HOU (8th) 493 PA | 90 wRC+ | -2.9 DEF | 1.0 WAR [ranked between #20 and #59 before being dealt for Kyle Tucker] 08. Anthony Volpe NYY (8th) 596 PA | 83 wRC+ | +0.3 DEF | 1.0 WAR [$300M payroll and they've got a SS even worse than us, nevermind his prospect rankings] 07. Harrison Bader PHI (9th) 194 PA | 129 wRC+ | -0.1 DEF | 1.2 WAR [probably the 3rd best FA OF this offseason after Tucker and Bellinger] 06. Marcell Ozuna ATL (6th) 592 PA | 114 wRC+ | -14.8 DEF | 1.2 WAR [free agent DH likely destined for a one year deal] 05. Javier Baez DET (9th) 437 PA | 86 wRC+ | +4.7 DEF | 1.4 WAR [once tagged a guy out at home plate from center field, look it up, it's true] 04. Joey Ortiz MIL (9th) 506 PA | 67 wRC+ | +13.9 DEF | 1.4 WAR [the guy this post is about] 03. Romy Gonzalez BOS (10th) 341 PA | 123 wRC+ | -4.7 DEF | 1.5 WAR [famously attended a high school reunion with Michelle] 02. Matt Shaw CHC (10th) 437 PA | 93 wRC+ | +1.6 DEF | 1.5 WAR [kinda like if Joey hit better but couldn't play SS] 01. Nathan Lukes TOR (11th) 438 PA | 103 wRC+ | +2.3 DEF | 1.8 WAR [there you have it, Nathan Lukes (who exceeded 100 PA in a season for the first time at age 30) was thee very bestest ninth best player on his team in all of MLB for 2025] Just to do some final accounting at the end if anyone managed to make it this far... - the thirty ninth best players on their teams in 2025 totaled 23.8 WAR for an average of around 0.8 WAR each. - in 2025, Joey Ortiz's 1.4 WAR would have ranked 2nd on one team, 3rd on three teams, 4th on four teams, 5th on three teams, 6th on six teams, 7th on one team, 8th on five teams, 9th on four teams, 10th on two teams and 11th on one team. Put it all together and he would be something like the 6th or 7th best player on an average team that doesn't have the depth of the Brewers and a handful of other clubs. Ultimately, having someone like Joey Ortiz as your 9th (or even 8th) best player is a small luxury. I'd love to bring in an upgrade to the infield (whether that is at SS or at 2B/3B sliding Turang to SS) but between scant options likely to be available this winter, the cost to acquire them, and the pending arrival of guys like Pratt & Made, it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers roll with what they've got and hope that Joey can bounce back closer to average with the bat next year.

If you get the Bader from last year that put up a 122 wRC+ over 501 PA it would be an improvement on Perkins for sure. But if you get the Bader from 2022-24 that put up an 80 wRC+ over 1,094 PA you just dished out a multi year, eight figure contract for a redundancy. Cost controlled bats theoretically on the market could be guys like Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu with the Red Sox outfield surplus, CJ Abrams (not sure he’s up to the Brewers defensive standards though), Zach Neto (doubt LAA has any real interest in dealing him no matter how much Brewers fans try to wish it into existence on the internet), or maybe Brendan Donovan (imagine STL would prefer to send him outta the NLC).

For whatever it is or isn't worth, after a 105 wRC+ in 2024 then a 67 wRC+ last year, Steamer projects Ortiz to rebound for a 95 wRC+ in 2026. A 95 wRC+ with his defense and base running from last year would be something like a three win shortstop.

Welcome to the site.

Struggled both offensively and defensively in Wisco. I'd guess he starts 2026 back in Appleton playing primarily SS since he's still young, but it's sounding like his glove is probably destined for 2B/3B/OF down the road even if Pratt and Made weren't ahead of him in the SS pecking order.

Professional Innings Totals for Ashby... 2018: 57 IP 2019: 126 IP 202: N/A 2021: 95 IP 2022: 107 IP 2023: 7 IP 2024: 112 IP 2025: 74 IP (Guess they could try to squeeze 140 IP or so out of him in more of a starter's role, but he's been so good as a reliever I'd probably just leave him out there.) Professional Innings Totals for DL Hall... 2017: 10 IP 2018: 94 IP 2019: 80 IP 2020: N/A 2021: 31 IP 2022: 98 IP 2023: 71 IP 2024: 84 IP 2025: 59 IP (Think the ship has probably sailed on DL Hall as a starter. Hope he can stay healthy enough for 50 to 60 decent IP out of the bullpen at this point.)

MLBTR predicted 5/90 for Naylor. Ben Clemens at FanGraphs came in at 4/100 versus 4/80 as the median crowdsource there. Sounds like this reported deal is in that neighborhood. If Hoskins hadn't torn his ACL in 2023 and instead put up another full season with around a 125 wRC+, he probably would have gotten something similar, yes.

Yeah, feels like a situation where a veteran stopgap will be brought in to start the season so Jeferson can get regular reps in AAA with a chance to see MLB later in the summer if his performance at Nashville warrants a promotion.

Woodruff has thrown 131 IP the last three years and is headed into his age 33 season. Severino had thrown 373 IP the previous three seasons and was headed into his age 31 season when he signed. No doubt Woody has been a better pitcher when available, but that’s a big edge in health / age for Luis. Believe Severino also got some extra juice on his deal because the A’s had to overpay to get him to come pitch in their rinky dink minor league park. I wouldn’t be surprised if Woody gets three guaranteed years, but I still think with his age / health scenario that two guaranteed (with some kind of option tacked on) is where his market ends up if the QO isn’t accepted.

Freddy finishes fifth. As was mostly expected Skenes received all 30 first place votes and Sanchez received all 30 second place votes so the rest of the field was left fighting for 3rd place.

Kinda disappointed he couldn't find room for a wild pitch in there somewhere too. Oh well.

November 18th, so one more week.

Since we know the Brewers cleared their projected win total easily (again) I thought it might be interesting to look back at some of the individual preseason inputs versus what actually ended up happening. I had posted some areas that might be ripe for extra wins before the season began so I will quote from those below... Brewers position players ended up with 50.4 batting runs, +15.0 BsR, and +21.7 fielding on the end of season FanGraphs team leaderboards. That's an extra 45.6 runs or about four to five wins there. Brewers rotation came in at 807 IP of 3.56 ERA | 4.07 FIP. Their actual -0.51 ERA/FIP gap ended up much closer to the last two years than the projection. At 17.2 rWAR that is another five wins or so. Brewer bullpen ended up with (drum roll please) 6.8 rWAR, which is another three to four wins over the projections. Obviously a lot of offseason left, but the way too early look at the FanGraphs Depth Charts has the Brewers batters regressing from 28.2 WAR last year down to 23.1 WAR projected for 2026. On the pitching side they have the Brewers projected for a 4.02 ERA | 4.14 FIP | 15.4 WAR next year compared to a 3.59 ERA | 3.91 FIP last year which shook out to 24.0 rWAR | 18.6 fWAR. So quick and dirty (& again way too early) it looks like somewhere around a projected loss of eight to fourteen wins depending if they are showing rWAR or fWAR (more likely since its FanGraphs) on their pitching Depth Chart pages.

Last year Brewers' outfielders posted a 109 wRC+ (6th) | +10.2 BsR (3rd) | +2 DRS (10th) | +13 FRV (4th) | 10.4 WAR (5th). Over the three years with Arnold at the helm they are at a 105 wRC+ (12th) | +39.6 BsR (2nd) | +59 DRS (4th) | +52 FRV (2nd) | 29.8 WAR (5th). I think we can all agree that Chourio (1,139 PA | 115 wRC+ | 6.8 WAR) and Frelick (1,317 PA | 101 wRC+ | 6.4 WAR) are penciled into two spots while Perkins / Collins might be best served as luxury fourth outfielders, and Mitchell is hard to count on with his various health issues over the years. At the same time, I was curious how those last three stacked up relative to the rest of the outfielders around MLB. Since Mitchell debuted the earliest, and has the least amount of playing time on account of those injuries, I thought I'd use him to set the parameters for the player pool. So, going back to Garrett's debut in 2022 it looks like there have been 184 players with at least 400 PA playing outfield. That works out pretty nicely to just a hair over six outfielders each for all 30 teams, which is pretty much the minimum you need to carry on the 40 Man at any given point for coverage. Let's go chrono and start with Mitchell. Here are some of his pertinent rankings on the above linked leaderboard...414 PA (184th) | 34.3 K% (179th) | 9.4 BB% (55th) | .369 BABIP (1st) | 103 wRC+ (71st) | +5.0 BsR (47th) | +6.0 DEF (37th) | 2.7 WAR (90th). Pretty insane that despite having the least playing time on the list Mitchell has still managed to put up production above the halfway point. The K% and BABIP are just added layers of volatility to go along with the limited availability. Perkins comes in at 753 PA (117th) | 10.2 BB% (44th) | 82 wRC+ (157th) | +4.7 BsR (49th) | +14.2 DEF (17th) | 2.8 WAR (89th). Blake has the double whammy of not much playing time, plus some of the worst overall offensive production on the leaderboard, yet the walks, base running and especially the defense are enough to get him in above the halfway point too. Lastly there's Collins with 424 PA (178th) | 13.0 BB% (12th) | 121 wRC+ (25th) | +1.1 BsR (93rd) | -1.8 DEF (64th) | 2.4 WAR (97th). Isaac doesn't quite have the speed or defensive chops of Blake or Garrett but he takes the walks to a whole other level, and again manages a production ranking way over that of his playing time. I think most would agree Isaac isn't a true talent 121 wRC+ kind of guy going forward, but his 24.2% line drive rate is 5th on that same leaderboard which gives him a pretty solid foundation along with the walk rate. Putting that all together, I'd never say never when it comes to the Brewers front office and wheeling & dealing, but I'd be kinda surprised if they gave up a bunch of future value to go out and try to acquire a more proven starting calibre OF for that third spot over mixing and matching with some combo of Mitchell, Perkins, and Collins to open the season then adjusting from there if needed on account of injury or under performance.

I believe in the industry they refer to this as "getting Nightengale'd".

Arizona. Surplus value on five years of Marte (even at $91M) is way more valuable than one year of Peralta at $8M. If the Dbacks are serious about trading Ketel, I'd imagine they'll be looking for multiple MLB prospects and/or young players with near full complements of service time remaining. Probably something like three of Patrick, Henderson, Pratt, Quero, or Pena.

Pretty interesting splits for Patrick indeed. League average this year was 703 OPS bases empty | 740 OPS runners on | 745 OPS RISP Patrick went 698 OPS bases empty | 701 OPS runners on | 498 OPS RISP Chad also had pretty divergent strikeout & walk rates with bases empty (21.9 K% | 10.3 BB% | 2.13 K/BB) versus with runners on (29.9 K% | 4.7 BB% | 6.30 K/BB). Will be interesting to see if he can keep that up in year two.

Coming into the season ZiPS projected Durbin (1.2 WAR over 411 PA), Collins (1.1 WAR over 474 PA), Patrick (0.9 WAR in 115 IP), Misio (0.0 WAR in 83 IP), and Logan Henderson (0.7 WAR in 87 IP) for something like four wins over a combined 885 PA and 285 IP. At the end of the year those five rookies ended up at - Durbin (2.6 WAR over 506 PA), Collins (2.6 WAR over 441 PA), Patrick (2.6 rWAR in 119 IP), Misio (0.7 rWAR in 66 IP), and Logan Henderson (1.2 rWAR in 25 IP) for just shy of ten wins over a combined 947 PA and 210 IP. Obviously a lot goes into the end results of 162 games played, but that is six extra wins from five relatively unheralded rookies (and the only one that really was heralded had the worst projection) for a team that won their Division by five games. Pretty fun stuff (until the NLCS).

Yeah, the Rockies reside in a level of despair far removed from even the White Sox and Pirates of the baseball world. As if having to contend with Coors Field and the Dodgers weren't enough you've got Monfort fouling up that sliver of a chance before the games are even played in the summer.

The Bucks defense is 3.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Green is ON the floor (119.3) versus OFF the floor (115.8), but their offense is 13.7 points per 100 possessions better when Green is ON the floor (125.1) versus OFF the floor (111.4). Add it all up and AJG's +10.2 ON/OFF is 2nd on the team behind only Giannis at +16.3 after the first ten games. The guys who have been killing the Bucks so far in their minutes are Amir Coffey (-9.5) and especially Gary Trent Jr (-19.8).