sveumrules

Right, I noted his AA struggles (which were also injury influenced). He also bounced back and posted the lowest K rate of his MiLB career in AAA once he got healthy after those struggles. He posted a 139 wRC+ during April/May at AA before crashing to a 54 wRC+ in June/July when he was dealing with the injury. That’s closer to a year and a half ago that any concerns propped up than three years.

Assuming guys like Bellinger, Chapman and Soler are out of our price range in terms of dollars/years, my tiers would probably be something like… Prolly Still a Dream Hoskins, Joc More Realistic Santana, Belt, Turner, JDM, Urshela Please No Ji-Man, Vogelbach, Cooper Would also be fine with a guy like Ryu or Paxton on a one year deal for additional SP depth if the Brewers think they could eke a little last something out of them.

The wonky swing mechanics helped him break out in the first place, to the tune of a 155 wRC+ over 472 PA at A/A+ with a 22.2 K%. A wrist injury ate into his AA production (98 wRC+ over 374 PAs with a 30.2 K%) to start 2022, but he flipped the script with his promotion to AAA at a 135 wRC+ over 174 PAs with only a 19.5 K%. That wonky swing fueled two years of production and scouting reports that landed Joey a spot in the 2022 Futures Game plus #90 (MLB) and #65 (BPro) Top 100 rankings heading into 2023. There was no need to address it over the first two seasons, outside of an injury influenced AA hiccup you couldn’t draw up a much better ascent for a raw 4th rounder from the Midwest coming out of the Covid draft for a 150K bonus. Obviously he was exposed at the MLB level last year after being rushed up faster than anticipated due to injury, then forcing his way into everyday action with even better than advertised defense, but with options remaining and the highest upside of any non-Chourio OF in the system my guess is the Brewers exercise patience with him to figure it out in AAA with guys like Yelich, Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell and Perkins giving them plenty of options to cover MLB OF at bats in the meantime.

This link has the median ZiPS projections for all Brewers players in 2024. The individual player pages also have Steamer projections. ZiPS also provides the 80th percentile projections which look like... Chourio 291/332/458 (114 OPS+) 3.1 WAR Weimer 246/321/446 (107 OPS+) 1.9 WAR Frelick 298/357/426 (115 OPS+) 3.0 WAR Mitchell 282/352/434 (116 OPS+) 1.7 WAR Turang 364/334/387 (98 OPS+) 2.5 WAR Black 264/366/451 (123 OPS+) 2.9 WAR Gasser 3.74 ERA (2.4 WAR) Coleman Crow 3.70 ERA (2.0 WAR) Even McKendry 3.87 ERA (2.1 WAR) Tobias Myers 4.02 ERA (2.0 WAR) Uribe 3.06 ERA (1.1 WAR)

These were the final ZiPS projections for 2023. Adding up the deviation from zero for all 30 teams actual wins I got 272 wins, or just over 9 per team. In this thread I came up with an average margin of error of just under 8 wins for the projected preseason win totals available on FanGraphs Playoff Odds page, which uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS. There were 210 individual 162 game seasons in that sample from 2016 to 2023.

I’m not saying BTV is unimpeachable or anything, but they have McLanahan at $37.3M in surplus value compared to $8.9M for Wilken. With some combination Caminero, Mead and Paredes lined up the Rays already have three 3B better than Brock. Rays worst projected positions are currently CF and C, so they’d probably be more keen on Frelick ($35.4M surplus value on BTV) or Quero ($24.2M) as a McClanahan headliner.

Yes. Adames at 12.25M for this coming year, Hader for $11M in 2022, Woodruff fr $10.8M in 2023 and Williams for $10.5M in 2025 on the second year of his extension.

Haha, there was much talk about Tyler Black’s (ahem) shrinkage over on the Minors forum this summer. FanGraphs had a nice dive into the topic in general a little bit back too, with Black getting some mention. Essentially boils down to amateurs over-reporting their height because it is advantageous to do so, and then once they reach the minors (especially leagues with automated ball strike systems) it becomes advantageous to be shorter. Brewers had by far the most players who shrunk in that linked article so there may be some degree of organizational gamesmanship at play as well.

True, but guys like Willy ($12.25M) this year, or Woodruff ($10.8M) and Adames ($8.7M) for 23, or Hader ($11M) and Renfroe ($7.65M) in 22 that were within a couple two tree million of Burnes range all settled without going in front of the panel. Williams just signed a two year deal at big Arby’s money so he can pitch the next two seasons without worrying about financials before hitting FA.

The Bucks had two days off. Celtics flew to Milwaukee after their top four guys played 40-43 minutes each in an OT win. Porzingis was fresh, but noted Bucks slayer Al Horford was out since he played 38 mins the night before. I don’t think it’s an excuse to say the rest deficit played a role in one team playing well and the other playing sloppy. For me it’s more of a schedule loss than any kind of telling Bucks win, but I’ll always enjoy beating down the Celtics regardless. Thanasis minutes at the end were the cherry on top.

Last year every player but Burnes settled without a hearing. This year every single player settled without a hearing. Historically, the Brewers have settled with the overwhelming majority of their Arby’s guys instead of going to a hearing. I think Burnes was the one looking for a fight moreso than the Brewers were last winter.

Justin Chambers clearly has some talent, but has yet to throw a professional pitch. It’ll probably be at least five years before we know if the price paid was steep, inconsequential, or somewhere in between.

Idiotic of the NBA to schedule teams for a National Game on the second half of a B2B, but if that’s what it takes to beat the Celtics…I guess I’ll take it.

Nola probably signed with the Brewers because it's the best offer he got. They also have a reputation for "fixing" catcher defense and Nola has been among the worst with -12 DRS (41st of 50 catchers with at least 1,500 innings from 2019-23) and -8.3 Framing Runs (34th) for his career.

Roster Resource lists Clarke as having an option remaining. MLBTR noted the same in their write up of the transaction.

NL WEST Los Angeles Dodgers (+50 Wins, 2nd) 16: 93 (91) -2 17: 97 (104) +7 18: 95 (92) -3 19: 92 (106) +14 21: 100 (106) +6 22: 95 (111) +16 23: 88 (100) +12 Colorado Rockies (+16 Wins, 8th) 16: 73 (75) +2 17: 78 (87) +9 18: 79 (91) +12 19: 79 (71) -8 21: 65 (74) +9 22: 68 (68) 0 23: 67 (59) -8 Arizona Diamondbacks (+7 Wins, 11th) 16: 78 (69) -9 17: 77 (93) +16 18: 81 (82) +1 19: 77 (85) +8 21: 72 (52) -20 22: 69 (74) +5 23: 78 (84) +6 San Francisco Giants (-6 Wins, 17th) 16: 88 (87) -1 17: 88 (64) -24 18: 81 (73) -8 19: 73 (77) +4 21: 76 (107) +31 22: 85 (81) -4 23: 83 (79) -4 San Diego Padres (-41 Wins, 26th) 16: 73 (68) -5 17: 66 (71) +5 18: 72 (66) -6 19: 78 (70) -8 21: 95 (79) -16 22: 90 (89) -1 23: 92 (82) -10 NOTES: Of course the Dodgers beat up on the projections just like they do the rest of MLB (regular season non-pandemic WS only). They also clock in at +326 DRS (2nd) and +39.88 bullpen WPA (4th) to support the idea that elite fielding and relief pitching help you beat the projections. Rockies at least meet one criteria (+165 DRS, 9th), even if their bullpen is predictably non-impactful (+4.51 WPA, 19th). Frequent Offseason Champion Padres checking in at -41 wins versus the projections, 5th worst in MLB, kind of goes to show that winning the offseason doesn't always equate to winning the actual season.

NL CENTRAL Milwaukee Brewers (+58 Wins, 1st) 16: 69 (73) +4 17: 70 (86) +16 18: 80 (96) +16 19: 81 (89) +8 21: 83 (95) +12 22: 90 (86) -4 23: 86 (92) +6 St. Louis Cardinals (+9 Wins, 10th) 16: 86 (86) 0 17: 85 (83) -2 18: 87 (88) +1 19: 84 (91) +7 21: 81 (90) +9 22: 83 (93) +10 23: 87 (71) -16 Chicago Cubs (-5 Wins, 16th) 16: 96 (103) +7 17: 96 (92) -4 18: 96 (95) -1 19: 87 (84) -3 21: 80 (71) -9 22: 75 (74) -1 23: 77 (83) +6 Cincinnati Reds (-8 Wins, 19th) 16: 71 (68) -3 17: 68 (68) 0 18: 71 (67) -4 19: 79 (75) -4 21: 79 (83) +4 22: 75 (62) -13 23: 70 (82) +12 Pittsburgh Pirates (-12 Wins, 20th) 16: 83 (78) -5 17: 80 (75) -5 18: 76 (82) +6 19: 77 (69) -8 21: 66 (61) -5 22: 69 (62) -7 23: 70 (82) +12 NOTES: Brewers are the biggest projection beaters of them all with +242 DRS (4th) and +41.55 bullpen WPA (1st) doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Cubs are another outlier to the defense/relief theory with +289 DRS (3rd) and a +29.29 bullpen WPA (8th), but a middling -5 wins versus the projections and only a 31 win deviation from zero over the seven full seasons, 3rd smallest in the sample. Also think this exercise does a good job of illustrating how the NLC is superior to the ALC, despite them often getting lumped together as equally bad. The actual win tally comes in at 2,972 for the NLC compared to 2,813 for the ALC from 2016-23, while the NLC came in at +42 net wins vs the projections compared to -123 net wins vs the projections for the ALC.

NL EAST Atlanta Braves (+49 Wins, 3rd) 16: 68 (68) 0 17: 72 (72) 0 18: 73 (90) +17 19: 84 (97) +13 21: 88 (88) 0 22: 93 (101) +8 23: 93 (104) +11 Philadelphia Phillies (+7 Wins, 12th) 16: 64 (71) +7 17: 72 (66) -6 18: 77 (80) +3 19: 85 (81) -4 21: 80 (82) +2 22: 87 (87) 0 23: 85 (90) +5 Miami Marlins (-21 Wins, 23rd) 16: 81 (79) -2 17: 79 (77) -2 18: 64 (63) -1 19: 60 (57) -3 21: 71 (67) -4 22: 82 (69) -13 23: 80 (84) +4 Washinton Nationals (-25 Wins, 24th) 16: 90 (95) +5 17: 92 (97) +5 18: 92 (82) -10 19: 91 (93) +2 21: 81 (65) -16 22: 70 (55) -15 23: 67 (71) +4 New York Mets (-44 Wins, 27th) 16: 92 (87) -5 17: 87 (70) -17 18: 84 (77) -7 19: 84 (86) +2 21: 92 (77) -15 22: 88 (101) +13 23: 90 (75) -15 NOTES: Braves have three of only nine seasons in the entire sample with projected wins equals actual wins, so their +49 wins in only 4 seasons is all the more impressive. Their defense (+89 DRS, 10th) and bullpen (+19.78 WPA, 12th) have both been contributors, but their hitters +51.22 WPA (2nd) is probably the main driver. Numbers in parentheses are net wins, but in terms of deviation from zero the Phillies and Marlins were two of the most accurately projected teams at 27 and 29, or about 4 wins of deviation per season. LOLMets at the end. If their outlier 2022 didn't save them they'd be fighting with the Angels for last. Should also be noted they came in at -142 DRS and -0.54 bullpen WPA, both 25th.

AL WEST Houston Astros (+41 Wins, 5th) 16: 88 (84) -4 17: 90 (101) +11 18: 100 (103) +3 19: 98 (107) +9 21: 89 (95) +6 22: 91 (106) +15 23: 89 (90) +1 Seattle Mariners (+36 Wins, 6th) 16: 82 (86) +4 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 78 (89) +11 19: 75 (68) -7 21: 74 (90) +16 22: 80 (90) +10 23: 82 (88) +6 Texas Rangers (EVEN MONEY, 15th) 16: 79 (95) +16 17: 82 (78) -4 18: 77 (67) -10 19: 71 (78) +7 21: 70 (60) -10 22: 75 (68) -7 23: 82 (90) +8 Oakland Athletics (-7 Wins, 18th) 16: 79 (69) -10 17: 77 (75) -2 18: 78 (97) +19 19: 85 (97) +12 21: 84 (86) +2 22: 69 (60) -9 23: 69 (50) -19 Los Angeles Angels (-52 Wins, 30th) 16: 81 (74) -7 17: 83 (80) -3 18: 83 (80) -3 19: 82 (72) -10 21: 85 (77) -8 22: 83 (73) -10 23: 84 (73) -11 NOTES: The Astros are almost as good as beating the projections as they are at beating a trash can, but all jokes aside they also put up +345 DRS (1st) and +29.77 bullpen WPA (7th) so they fit the mold. The Mariners are the first big projection beaters to break the fielding/relief mold with a decent +21.27 bullpen WPA (11th) but -49 DRS (19th), The Angels couldn't be anymore hilarious. Projected between 81 and 85 wins every single year and then underperform those middling projections seven of seven years while running a Top 6 to 8 OD payroll every year.

AL CENTRAL Cleveland Guardians (+12 Wins, 9th) 16: 88 (94) +6 17: 94 (102) +8 18: 96 (91) -5 19: 97 (93) -4 21: 82 (80) -2 22: 77 (92) +15 23: 82 (76) -6 Minnesota Twins (-13 Wins, 21st) 16: 78 (59) -19 17: 75 (85) +10 18: 83 (78) -5 19: 85 (101) +16 21: 88 (73) -15 22: 82 (78) -4 23: 83 (87) +4 Chicago White Sox (-25 Wins, 25th) 16: 81 (78) -3 17: 68 (67) -1 18: 65 (62) -3 19: 72 (72) 0 21: 86 (93) +7 22: 87 (81) -6 23: 80 (61) -19 Kansas City Royals (-47 Wins, 28th) 16: 78 (81) +3 17: 76 (80) +4 18: 71 (58) -13 19: 70 (59) -11 21: 78 (74) -4 22: 75 (65) -10 23: 72 (56) -16 Detroit Tigers (-50 Wins, 29th) 16: 81 (86) -5 17: 82 (64) -18 18: 70 (64) -6 19: 68 (47) -21 21: 72 (77) +5 22: 77 (66) -11 23: 72 (78) +6 NOTES: Looks like the ALC is thee worst division when it comes to underperforming their projections with only Cleveland at +196 DRS (4th) and +41.53 bullpen WPA (2nd) coming out on the positive end while KCR (-159 DRS, 26th | +1.41 bullpen WPA, 21st) and DET (-410 DRS, 30th and +3.84 bullpen WPA, 20th) being two of thee biggest duds in MLB. Royals have one of the most consistent projected win ranges coming in between 70 and 78 every year.

AL EAST Tampa Bay Rays (+43 Wins, 4th) 16: 81 (68) -13 17: 81 (80) -1 18: 76 (90) +14 19: 84 (96) +12 21: 83 (100) +17 22: 85 (86) +1 23: 86 (99) +13 New York Yankees (+20 Wins, 7th) 16: 82 (84) +2 17: 79 (91) +12 18: 94 (100) +6 19: 100 (103) +3 21: 95 (92) -3 22: 91 (99) +8 23: 90 (82) -8 Boston Red Sox (+5 Wins, 13th) 16: 89 (93) +4 17: 91 (93) +2 18: 93 (108) +15 19: 96 (84) -12 21: 85 (92) +7 22: 86 (78) -8 23: 81 (78) -3 Baltimore Orioles (+2 Wins, 14th) 16: 78 (89) +11 17: 80 (75) -5 18: 76 (47) -29 19: 61 (54) -7 21: 65 (52) -13 22: 63 (83) +20 23: 76 (101) +25 Toronto Blue Jays (-20 Wins, 22nd) 16: 84 (89) +5 17: 86 (76) -10 18: 84 (73) -11 19: 76 (67) -9 21: 87 (91) +4 22: 92 (92) 0 23: 88 (89) +1 NOTES: Tampa Bay at +37.52 bullpen WPA (5th) and +181 DRS (8th) were the best in the division at beating their projections by a wide margin. Yankees bullpen was a little better (+40.24 WPA, 3rd) but their fielders weren't quite as good (+73 DRS, 14th). Orioles overall +2 is hardly indicative of their roller coaster ride with three of only seven total seasons of plus or minus 20 wins in the entire sample. Last two years at +45 wins they are +69 DRS and +10.76 bullpen WPA, both 7th in MLB. From 2017-21 when they were -54 wins vs the projections they came in at -159 DRS and -10.51 bullpen WPA, both 29th. Blue Jays rank did pretty well in both defense (+77 DRS, 13th) and bullpen (+27.96 WPA, 9th) but weren't able to leverage that into beating their projections.

I hate to start a project like this with a predetermined idea coloring the investigation, but my premise with a bias towards watching the Brewers more than any other team, is that defense and bullpen performance (which are among the most difficult to project) go a long way toward explaining over or under performance relative to the projections. Here are how some of the biggest over and under achievers performed in those areas over the 2016-23 time frame... THE GOOD MIL (+58 Wins) +242 DRS (4th) | +41.55 bWPA (1st) LAD (+50 Wins) +326 DRS (2nd) | +39.88 bWPA (4th) ATL (+49 Wins) +89 DRS (10th) | +19.78 bWPA (12th) TBR (+43 Wins) +181 DRS (8th) | +37.52 bWPA (5th) HOU (+41 Wins) +345 DRS (1st) | +29.77 bWPA (7th) NYY (+20 Wins) +73 DRS (14th) | +40.24 bWPA (3rd) COL (+18 Wins) +165 DRS (9th) | +4.51 bWPA (19th) CLE (+12 Wins) +196 DRS (5th) | +41.53 bWPA (2nd) THE UGLY LAA (-52 Wins) -9 DRS (17th) | -4.68 bWPA (27th) DET (-50 Wins) -410 DRS (30th) | +3.84 bWPA (20th) KCR (-47 Wins) -159 DRS (26th) | +1.41 bWPA (21st) NYM (-44 Wins) -142 DRS (25th) | -0.53 bWPA (25th) CHW (-25 Wins) -264 DRS (29th) | -0.29 bWPA (24th) WAS (-25 Wins) -118 DRS (24th) | -7.96 bWPA (28th) MIA (-21 Wins) +38 DRS (15th) | -11.59 bWPA (30th) THE OUTLIERS TOR (-20 Wins) +77 DRS (13th) | +27.96 bWPA (9th) SEA (+36 Wins) -49 DRS (19th) | +21.27 bWPA (11th) CHC (-5 Wins) +289 DRS (3rd) | +29.29 bWPA (9th) I'm not saying that defense and bullpen performance are the only thing when it comes to beating (or getting beat by) the projections, but I think there is enough signal in the noise to say that they play a pretty significant role in the whole process. Before I get into the divisional breakdowns, here is the overall split of the individual team seasons grouped by variation from zero in terms of projected vs actual wins... (0): 9 (+/-1): 12 (+/-2): 13 (+/-3): 14 (+/-4): 24 (+/-5): 16 (+/-6): 15 (+/-7): 13 (+/-8): 14 (+/-9): 8 (+/-10): 12 (+/-11): 8 (+/-12): 9 (+/-13): 8 (+/-14): 2 (+/-15): 7 (+/-16): 11 (+/-17 to 19): 8 (+/-20 or more): 7 Overall, if I'm mathing this right, I get an average margin of error about 8 wins per season in either direction. Here are the individual divisional breakdowns...

Saw that the Brewers ZiPS projections are getting released over at FanGraphs later today, and since there was neither Bucks nor Badgers nor Golden Eagles games this evening it seemed like as good a time as any to dig into how the Brewers have done compared to the projections during the Stearns, and now Arnold era. Spoiler alert, it's pretty pretty good. Luckily, FanGraphs historical playoff odds (which use a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS) go back to the 2016, so I rounded off every team's projected preseason win total from there and then compared that to their actual win total for that season. 30 teams times seven full seasons equals 210 individual seasons in the sample. I will break off each division into their own separate post below to space out the details a little bit, but first I'll lay out some of the information I found most interesting putting this all together....

Three things projections struggle the most with are defense and relief pitching (because they are more volatile year to year), and young players (because they have a limited MLB track record to project from). A big reason the Brewers have consistently beat their projections over the last seven years is they have regularly fielded top end defenses (+249 DRS from 2017-23, 3rd), and bullpens at 36.0 rWAR (5th) and +35.85 WPA (2nd) over that same stretch. This year they’ll be relying on a number of young players too which will further muddy the waters. FanGraphs Playoff Odds uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS, here are their Brewers preseason projected win totals for every full season from 2017-23, with their actual win total that year in parentheses after… 2017: 70 (86) 2018: 80 (96) 2019: 81 (89) 2021: 83 (95) 2022; 90 (86) 2023: 86 (92) So five out of six seasons beating the projections by at least six wins with +54 cumulative wins over the projections during that run. The one year we didn’t beat the projections our bullpen collapsed, finishing 17th in WPA. I think it’s safe to say whatever internal projections the Brewers front office utilizes are a little more precise than the publicly available ones.

Chapman at 4/80 on FanGraphs was from their crowd sourcing. Ben Clemens had him at 5/120 in their Top 50 article. Combine that with the 6/150 MLBTR prediction and the range is pretty wild. Probably the largest of any FA this winter. If he would sign for 4/80 I could see the Brewers being interested given their run prevention mindset and the likelihood that average is probably the ceiling for Black and Wilken’s 3B defense. Problem is his glove has fallen off to the tune of +78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings. His bat also cratered at 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) from May 1st onward last year, though his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percent were all elite on his StatCast page.